FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Trin9-0]

Sometimes conferences use the so-called Rose Bowl Rule, in a couple of different ways -- you either take the team that advanced to the playoffs most recently and remove them from the tie, taking head-to-head from the other two, or you take the team that has been out of the playoffs the longest and then put them in.

Word out of NESCAC HQ is that for a three-way tie starting in 2026, they will determine the NESCAC play-off representative via coin-flip. 

Wow. I'm not sure which of these options I hate more. I agree with Pat that there's not really a good option for breaking a three way tie (especially in a league where everyone plays each other) but I would prefer something based on results that actually took place on the field. Point differential can be manipulated by running up the score on bad teams and computer rating and voter rankings aren't perfect but in my opinion any of those options are a hell of a lot better than a taking turns or a coin flip!

[nescac1]

I think if you do a head-to-head tiebreaker, followed by a tie-breaker of the record vs. fourth place team, then fifth place team, etc., nearly every year that is going to work out.  The only way that system won't work is if there are three teams, each with exactly one loss, each of those losses to one another.  That can't happen more than once every 20 years I suspect ... and in that incredibly rare situation, I do think a coin toss makes sense. 

[CWM_42]

Just checking in...Nescacman, are you okay?  I am looking forward to your week 7 picks.

[Pat Coleman]

I think if you do a head-to-head tiebreaker, followed by a tie-breaker of the record vs. fourth place team, then fifth place team, etc., nearly every year that is going to work out.  The only way that system won't work is if there are three teams, each with exactly one loss, each of those losses to one another.  That can't happen more than once every 20 years I suspect ... and in that incredibly rare situation, I do think a coin toss makes sense. 

No, it's not. If you have three teams all tied with one loss and they all split with each other, then the rest of the way down the list is useless.

Most of these three-way ties are three-way ties at 8-1 or 7-1 or whatever-and-1 that don't have any help from what you describe.

I do agree that three-way ties are relatively rare, but when they happen, they are almost always the unbreakable ones.

[nescac1]

Umm, Pat, that's exactly what I said: that the only time the system WON'T work is when there are three teams tied with exactly one loss, all to each other.  That happens very rarely (one time since 2000 in NESCAC) but when it does there really is no good solution (we don't want to incentivize running up the score against bad teams via margin of victory or any other statistical measure).  I guess maybe you could do the total score in just those head-to-head games but also creates some problematic incentives. Although to be fair, it will be even more uncommon that three teams tie in the head-to-head but all finish with exactly two losses.

[Pat Coleman]

OK -- and my point was that most of those three-way ties are the ones where that won't work.

[Trin9-0]

The league has played 32 seasons of NESCAC-only schedules and had 3 three-way ties:

• 1997-Amherst, Wesleyan, Williams
• 2000-Amherst, Colby, Middlebury
• 2013-Amherst, Middlebury, Wesleyan

In the first two occasions the sole loss for each came against one of the other tied teams. The main difference between then and now is the 8 game schedule. In 1997 Amherst didn't play Bates, Wesleyan didn't play Middlebury, and Williams didn't play Bowdoin. In 2000 Amherst again didn't play Bates, Colby didn't play Trinity, and Middlebury didn't play Wesleyan. I'm not sure any of those games would have made the difference as only Wes in '00 finished with a winning record (5-3).

In 2013 Middlebury and Wesleyan didn't play each other. The Panthers lost to Amherst who in turn lost to Wesleyan. But the Cardinals were beaten by Trinity. I would think in this scenario Amherst would get the automatic bid since they had the head-to-head against Middlebury while Wesleyan would be eliminated for having a loss to a team that the other two had beaten.

My favorite solution would be point differential in games played against the other tied teams. Just for fun that would have theoretically given both the '97 and '00 Amherst teams the three way tie-breaker with a +20 and +6 point differentials respectively. If there's still a tie then give me point differential against the fourth place team, and go on down the list... but NEVER a coin flip.

[Nescacman]

Just checking in...Nescacman, are you okay?  I am looking forward to your week 7 picks.

Appreciate the check-in and the concern! We are doing just fine...busy weekend at our alma matter. Picks to be posted shortly...

NM

[Nescacman]

2025 Week 7 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome back NESCAC...it's Week #7 "in the league where they pay to play".

And then there were two! We now have a 2-way tie for first place in the NESCAC as we head into the season's home stretch. Despite the two upsets last week (Amherst and Wesleyan), it is still going to be an exciting last 3 weeks of the season. We all know that this is the NESCAC and craziness is around every corner. Week7 features our game of the week as Mysterious Ministers of Middletown play host to the Amherst Lord Mammoths in a Little 3 battle. A potential share of the NESCAC title is at stake in this game.

We were 3-2 last week and now stand at 21-9 on the year. Let's get to this week's games...

Hamilton College at Colby College: Despite their record, Colby has struggled on offense all year (high water for points is 17 and they are averaging 10.5 ppg). Meanwhile, the Mules defense is 4th in scoring. Hamilton has had the opposite problem. Their offense, particularly their passing game, has performed well enough to win while the defense has been far and away the worst in the league. Word out of Waterville is that we will have a new starting QB at the helm which adds another level of complexity in picking this game. We'll typically always take: 1). A decent defense over a decent offense, and 2). We will generally give the home team the edge in what should be a low scoring game, which Colby is prone to play. We think this will be another messy, "Colby-like" game with Colby winning a close game.

Colby 17 Hamilton 13
Point Spread: Colby -3
Weather: Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 53F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Hartford State College at Bowdoin College: A game that seemingly looks like a one-sided affair. So did the Wesleyan/Bowdoin match-up last week. For Bowdoin to have a chance in this game, they will have to play a similar game against Hartford State that they played against Wes. Force turnovers, get some sacks, and put relentless pressure on Jaxon Carroll. The difference here is that the Bantams have a better running game (led by Tosone and DiNapoli),than Wesleyan does (at least at this point in the season) and they will hope to use that to slow down the Polars "all-gas, no-brakes" defense. On offense, FY signal caller Soren Hummell seems to be getting comfortable for the Polars. He had a career day against Wes (a short career, mind you) and will need to play similarly against Hartford State for them to have a chance for the win. The Bants can't look past Bowdoin and need to take care of business to set themselves up for a shot at another league championship. One note, Bowdoin has lost 25 straight games to Hartford State. We think the wins continue for Hartford State and we will go with them to get the win on the road in Brunswick.

Hartford State 45 Bowdoin 7
Point Spread: Hartford State -35
Weather: Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 56F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Middlebury College: UBates will try to make it 2 wins in a row against the Panthers. Last year, UBates broke a 23 game Middlebury winning streak. UBates has won only three times over the last 47 meetings between these teams dating back to 1970. Both UBates and Middlebury are coming off disappointing losses. With both teams both out of NESCAC title contention, they will be playing for pride and start to look toward 2026. Both teams are very similar in that they are middle of the pack on defense both against the run and the pass. UBates offense has been better running than passing and Middlebury has been balanced at both. Middlebury has lost their last 3 games and is 0-4 this year against teams the leading teams in the NESCAC (Wes, Williams, Amherst, Hartford State). Middlebury does have some weapons including RB Connor McClellan, WR Mike Ahonen, and QB Brian Moran. QB Jack Perry has thrown the ball better for the Kitties as of late. Despite that, we expect UBates to lean heavily on RB Ryan Lynskey. As noted, Middlebury has historically played well against the Kitties. UBates is 1-2 over their last 3 games but those two losses were by a total of 14 points. We expect a close game, but we'll give the edge to the home team.

Middlebury 27 UBates 24
Point Spread:  Middlebury -6
Weather: Mainly cloudy. High 49F. Winds light and variable.

Williams College at Tufts University: Interesting game in Medford. Tufts ended their 3-game losing streak last week against Hamilton. Meanwhile, despite not having their star QB Owen Johansen, Williams pulled one out against UBates. We are going to assume that Johansen comes back this week. With a win, Tufts Coach Jay Civetti will become the all-time winningest coach in Tufts football history. Since Tufts has made a change at QB going with Hudson Weidman over Justin Keller, the offense has looked much more proficient. Weidman threw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs last week. The way to beat Williams has been through the air, so we expect Weidman to look to pass a lot for the Jumbo's. We expect the opposite from the Ephs who lead the NESCAC in rushing and Tufts is 9th defending the run. Tufts has been very good this year on special teams and Tufts return man Keller Rodgers could be a difference maker in this game. WR Zach Falls is a player to watch for Williams. The Williams O-line and D-line both continue to perform at a high level leading the NESCAC in both sacks for and sacks against. Williams will need to get past Tufts to set up the last 2 weeks and a chance for dual championships; a Little 3 and NESCAC title. We expect a close game, but Williams wins on the road.

Williams 27 Tufts 23
Point Spread: Williams -4
Weather: Cloudy skies. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 59F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Amherst College at Wesleyan University: Both teams stumbled last week at home with Amherst losing to Colby and Wesleyan losing to Bowdoin. Still, those losses do not take the luster and importance off this game. Both teams still control their own destiny as they fight for a NESCAC Championship and the coveted Little 3 crown. The road to both will noy be easy as both teams face Williams and Hartford State in weeks 8 and 9. Speaking of the Little 3, Wesleyan is going for their 4th straight Little 3 title, something they have never done. As recently as 2013, they hadn't won a Little 3 title in 40+ years dating back to 1970. Despite last week's loss for the Lord Mammoths, QB Marek Hill still had his typical productive game for Amherst. He is the player that Wesleyan, NESCAC's number 1 ranked defense (in yards allowed), will have to stop to win this game. Speaking of defense, the Lord Mammoths defense is also excellent and leads the NESCAC in points allowed (by 2 points over Wesleyan). Amherst will have to stop the league's leading passing offense led by QB Matt Fitzsimons, WRs Blake Newcomb and Dante Kelly, and several excellent TEs. Amherst is very good against the run and Wes has not run the ball well this year, so we look for the Cards to lean in on the pass but mix it up with some well-timed runs. We think Wes will have to have some success running the ball in this game to keep the Lord Mammoths honest and set-up the pass. Both offensive lines have done a decent job of protecting the passer this year. Wesleyan's offensive line will have to play well since Amherst does rush the passer very well (2nd in the NESCAC in sacks). As in any big, rivalry game such as this, we think it will come down to turnovers and a couple of key plays. Whoever wins the turnover battle and makes those big plays will win this game. Wesleyan has won the last 3 times these teams have played and has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. We expect a very large crowd (5,000+) as Wesleyan honors their All-Decade Team from the 2010's. Should be a great atmosphere. We like Wesleyan at home in what should be a close game decided by one-score.

Wesleyan 27 Amherst 21
Point Spread: Wesleyan -6
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Partly cloudy. High 59F. Winds light and variable.

Good luck to all the student-athletes and coaches this Saturday!

NESCACMAN's Picks:
2025 Season: 21-9 (.700 winning percentage)
2024 Season: 38-7
2023 Season: 31-14
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0 (COVID)
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 382-123 (.756 winning percentage)

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Follow NESCACMAN us on X: @realnescacman

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Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast is the first podcast of its kind in NESCAC history. Hosted by Chris Grace (play-by-play announcer for Wesleyan) and Dave Bagatelle (Wesleyan Alum and former player), our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.

Season 2 Episode 7 featuring Bowdoin College Head Coach BJ Hammer and Williams College Wide Receiver Zach Falls.

The podcast is available on YouTube, Facebook, Apple and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.

Thank you to our sponsors Sloane and Walsh, LLP and Gameday Sports.

If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

Follow us on X (aka Twitter): @nineweeksnescac
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Spotify Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac
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Look for NESCACMAN's weekly predictions and point spreads at nescacfootballreport.com

[Nescacman]

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast Season 2, Episode 7

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast is the first podcast of its kind in NESCAC history. Hosted by Chris Grace (play-by-play announcer for Wesleyan) and Dave Bagatelle (Wesleyan Alum and former player), our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.

Available Now!!! Season 2 Episode 7 featuring Bowdoin College Head Coach BJ Hammer and Williams College Wide Receiver Zach Falls.

The podcast is available wherever you find podcasts including YouTube, Facebook, Apple and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.
 
Thank you to our sponsors Sloane and Walsh, LLP and Gameday Sports.
 
If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

Follow us on X (aka Twitter): @nineweeksnescac
Follow us on Instagram: @nineweeksnescac
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Spotify Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac
Apple Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac

Visit Nescacfootballreport.com for NESCACMAN's picks/spreads, additional analysis and NESCAC reporting

[Trin9-0]

Wow. No argument that Trinity is a heavy favorite over Bowdoin, but a 35 point spread on the road is really something. I think the d3lines.com number (Trin -28) is closer to what we should expect. In the last four meetings between the two, Trinity's average margin of victory is 27.3.

The Bants are looking dangerous and Bowdoin might return to their typical form following the big upset win last week but I'd take the Polar Bears and the points.

[Brady12]

Wow. No argument that Trinity is a heavy favorite over Bowdoin, but a 35 point spread on the road is really something. I think the d3lines.com number (Trin -28) is closer to what we should expect. In the last four meetings between the two, Trinity's average margin of victory is 27.3.

The Bants are looking dangerous and Bowdoin might return to their typical form following the big upset win last week but I'd take the Polar Bears and the points.

Agree especially this year as it seems like any given
Saturday.....can't see the home team losing by 35+

[Brady12]

Wow. No argument that Trinity is a heavy favorite over Bowdoin, but a 35 point spread on the road is really something. I think the d3lines.com number (Trin -28) is closer to what we should expect. In the last four meetings between the two, Trinity's average margin of victory is 27.3.

The Bants are looking dangerous and Bowdoin might return to their typical form following the big upset win last week but I'd take the Polar Bears and the points.

Agree especially this year as it seems like any given
Saturday.....can't see the home team losing by 35+

So after further review I think it is a good line

[GameBall14]

Wow. No argument that Trinity is a heavy favorite over Bowdoin, but a 35 point spread on the road is really something. I think the d3lines.com number (Trin -28) is closer to what we should expect. In the last four meetings between the two, Trinity's average margin of victory is 27.3.

The Bants are looking dangerous and Bowdoin might return to their typical form following the big upset win last week but I'd take the Polar Bears and the points.

And you would have lost

[ItsATuftSituation]

Watched the Jumbos-Ephs game yesterday on the Internet. First thoughts, Tufts kids on Jumbocast do an amazing job with the broadcast. They had a pregame and halftime show with a table like Gameday, the broadcasters were prepared and had obviously done tons for preparation with graphics and it was breast cancer awareness day at Tufts so they had a QR code to donate on the screen. It was a very good watch.

The game was pretty much just about Tufts offensive unit figuring it all out and now they look like one of the best units in the league with Weidman under center. Efficient and dangerous, tons of weapons. The defense allowed yards but made some huge takeaway plays late in the game.

Johansen didn't look right...maybe he was favoring something but he wasn't his elusive self except for a few plays. The defensive line did a solid job on Oris, and despite Falls being great, Tufts limited pretty much everyone else.

Tufts has put up 38 and 41 points in their last two games, interested to see how it fares against Colby's solid defense next week.

Also, congrats to HC Jay Civetti on tying the all-time wins record at Tufts with his 60th win. A record that's stood since 1945.