FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Pat Coleman]

Pat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?

I think I talked about it here last offseason -- basically any NESCAC team that finished with one loss or fewer should get a bid, whether it's the AQ or an at-large. With no non-conference games, and just nine games, I'm not as sure about a 7-2 NESCAC team -- doesn't look super likely.

[HansenRatings]

Pat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?

I think I talked about it here last offseason -- basically any NESCAC team that finished with one loss or fewer should get a bid, whether it's the AQ or an at-large. With no non-conference games, and just nine games, I'm not as sure about a 7-2 NESCAC team -- doesn't look super likely.

It'll also depend on how the WP/SOS/QWB dials get adjusted. As they are right now, any team with 1 loss is going to be >99% to get in (it would take a historical anomaly in terms of exceeding the usual number of 1-loss teams nationally and the number of teams with 2+ losses winning conference AQs), and any team with 2 losses would be <1% to get in (it would take a historical anomaly in the opposite direction).

[Trin9-0]

Pat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?

I think I talked about it here last offseason -- basically any NESCAC team that finished with one loss or fewer should get a bid, whether it's the AQ or an at-large. With no non-conference games, and just nine games, I'm not as sure about a 7-2 NESCAC team -- doesn't look super likely.

For those wondering, historically it has been very common for the NESCAC to have multiple teams finish with 1 loss or fewer. In fact, over the past 25 seasons (including this year since it cannot happen) there's only been 8 years where the NESCAC didn't have multiple teams with 1 loss or fewer.

It's worth noting that for most of those years (17 seasons) we only had an 8 game schedule, thus one fewer opportunity to lose a game. However, even since 2017 there has been multiple teams with 1 or fewer losses in all but four seasons:

2023 - Middlebury (8-1), Trinity (8-1)
2021 - Williams (9-0), Trinity (8-1)
2019 - Middlebury (9-0), Wesleyan (8-1)
2018 - Trinity (8-1), Amherst (8-1)
2016 - Trinity (8-0), Tufts (7-1)
2015 - Amherst (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2014 - Amherst (8-0), Wesleyan (7-1)
2013 - Amherst (7-1), Middlebury (7-1), Wesleyan (7-1)
2012 - Trinity (8-0), Middlebury (7-1)
2011 - Amherst (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2010 - Williams (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2006 - Williams (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2005 - Trinity (8-0), Colby (7-1)
2002 - Trinity (7-1), Williams (7-1)
2001 - Williams (8-0), Amherst (7-1)
2000 - Amherst (7-1), Colby (7-1), Middlebury (7-1)