FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

2026 Week 9 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome to NESCAC 2026 Week #9, the final week of the regular season, "in the league where they pay to play."

And what a finish this is going to be!

Our NESCAC Game of the Week is the Turducken Bowl in Hartford, CT, where the undefeated Hartford State Bantams (8–0) host the Wesleyan Cardinals (7–1). This is the game we have been anticipating all season. The stakes could not be higher: a NESCAC championship and the conference's first-ever automatic bid to the NCAA Division III Football Championship Tournament are at stake. Hartford State wins and they finish 9–0, capture the outright NESCAC championship, and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Wesleyan wins and things get VERY interesting, particularly if Amherst beats Williams.

We went 4–1 picking winners last week and stand at 34–6 (.850) on the year. Our only miss last week was our upset special when we picked Hamilton over Middlebury. The Conts came close but couldn't quite finish the job. An injury in the 2nd quarter to star QB Luke Kurzum doomed the Conts.

NESCAC headlines heading into Week #9:
•    The main headline for Week 9 is the Turducken Bowl: Wesleyan at undefeated Hartford State. A Bantam victory delivers an outright 9–0 championship and the automatic NCAA bid. A Wesleyan victory, combined with an Amherst win over Williams, produces a three-way tie at 8–1. Under the official NESCAC tiebreaking procedures, that scenario would require a random draw to determine the conference's NCAA automatic qualifier.
•    Hartford State survived Amherst 16–13, clinching at least a share of the NESCAC title. The Bantams were outgained 416–219 and didn't score an offensive TD but found a way to win. That's what championship teams do.
•    Wesleyan took care of business against Williams, winning 20–7. The Cardinals have allowed just seven points over their last two games.
•    Amherst is NOT out of the championship picture. A victory over Williams combined with a Wesleyan win over Hartford State would create a three-way tie for the title. The irony is Amherst fans will be rooting for Wesleyan and Wesleyan fans will be rooting for Williams.
•    Middlebury is playing for a winning season when they travel to Tufts.
•    Bowdoin remains the league's only winless team at 0–8. The Polar Bears have undergone a coaching change and will try to avoid their first winless season since 2018.
•    The C-B-B concludes in Brunswick, where Colby will try to clinch the title.
•    For the first time in NESCAC history, the regular season concludes with a trip to the NCAA D3 Football Championship on the line.

Our upset special this week: Wesleyan over Hartford State!

Let's get to this week's games...

Amherst College (7–1) at Williams College (5–3): The Biggest Little Game in America. The 140th meeting between Amherst and Williams carries more significance than usual this year. Amherst comes into Williamstown knowing that a victory keeps its NESCAC Championship and NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Lord Mammoths suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Hartford State 16–13 in a game they probably should have won. Amherst outgained the Bantams 416–219 but couldn't convert opportunities into points. Six trips into the red zone produced just 13 points. That's not going to win many championship games. QB Marek Hill threw for 350 yards against one of the best defenses in the country. That performance should give Amherst confidence heading into Williamstown. Williams comes into this game following a disappointing 20–7 loss to Wesleyan. The Ephs have struggled against the NESCAC's elite teams this year, losing to Hartford State 45–0 and Wesleyan 20–7. The question for Williams is whether they can establish their running game against a very good Amherst defensive front 7. FY RB Jack Fabiano has demonstrated he can be a difference-maker, but the Ephs need more balance offensively. Amherst wins if: Hill continues to play at a high level, the Mammoths protect the football, and they improve their red-zone efficiency. Amherst needs to put last week's disappointment behind them. Williams wins if: They establish the running game, control the clock, and force Amherst into a low-scoring, physical contest. Back-up QB Renzella isn't forced to have to win it for the Ephs. Turnovers and special teams could be the great equalizers. Although we think Amherst is the better overall football team, this is a home game for the Ephs and a huge rivalry game. The Lord Mammoths have more to play for and should be able to exploit Williams through the air. However, we expect the Ephs to keep this game close, particularly at home, and come away with the upset win over the Lord Mammoths.

Williams 17 Amherst 13
Point Spread: Amherst -3
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Cloudy. A few flurries are possible. High around 40F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Middlebury College (4–4) at Tufts University (5–3): Two programs trying to finish their seasons on a positive note. Middlebury is coming off a hard-fought 20–17 victory over Hamilton, extending its remarkable winning streak against the Continentals. The Panthers have played better than their 4–4 record would suggest. Consider this: Middlebury lost to Amherst by one point and Hartford State by three points. That's four points separating the Panthers from potentially having a very different season. RB Connor McClellan has been outstanding. He leads the conference with 12 rushing touchdowns and is tied for the NESCAC lead with 721 rushing yards. McClellan has established himself as one of the league's premier offensive players. Tufts, meanwhile, is coming off an impressive 26–7 road victory over Colby. QB Nate Johnson completed 25 of 32 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. The Jumbos dominated time of possession, holding the football for more than 42 minutes. Tufts has been difficult to figure out this year. They have impressive wins over Williams and Colby but were soundly beaten by Wesleyan and Hartford State. Middlebury wins if: They establish McClellan early, control the clock, and force Tufts into long third-down situations. The Panthers need to play physical football and limit explosive plays.
Tufts wins if: Johnson continues his efficient play, Christian Shapiro gets going in the running game, and the Jumbos maintain offensive balance. They also must contain McClellan. We think this is one of the more competitive games on Saturday's schedule. Tufts has the home-field advantage, but Middlebury has played the league's top teams very tough. We give Tufts the slight edge at home.

Tufts 24 Middlebury 21
Point Spread: Tufts -2
Weather: Mainly cloudy. High 46F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) (1–7) at Hamilton College (2–6): The Kitties finally got one! UBates earned its first victory of the season last week, defeating Bowdoin 10–7 in a game that probably won't be remembered for its offensive fireworks. Trailing 7–3 late in the fourth quarter, the Bobcats converted a critical fourth down before Jack Gilmour connected with Jeff Vidou for the game-winning touchdown. For Bates, the victory ends a frustrating seven-game losing streak and gives the Bobcats some momentum heading into the finale. Hamilton is coming off another disappointing close loss, falling 20–17 to Middlebury. The Continentals have one of the league's most productive passing attacks but have struggled defensively throughout the season. QB Luke Kurzum and WR Matthew Kearns form one of the best passing combinations in the league. Kearns leads the NESCAC with 802 receiving yards and seven touchdown receptions. Kurzum was injured last week. We hope he can play. Hamilton's problem hasn't been moving the football. It's been stopping opponents. Hamilton wins if: Kurzum plays and takes advantage of the Bates secondary, limits turnovers, and generates enough offensive production to overcome Hamilton's defensive shortcomings. UBates wins if: The Kitties establish their running game, create turnovers, and keep Hamilton's offense on the sidelines. Long road trip for the Kitties. UBates must avoid getting into a shootout. We think Hamilton has too much offensive firepower for the Kitties even with their back-up QB playing. UBates will compete, but Hamilton gets the W and finishes 3–6.

Hamilton 31 UBates 17
Point Spread: Hamilton -10
Weather: Cloudy. High 39F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Colby College (1–7) at Bowdoin College (0–8): The final installment of the 2026 version of the C-B-B. Let's be honest. This hasn't exactly been a banner year for Maine NESCAC football. Colby enters the game 1–7, while Bowdoin remains winless at 0–8. The Polar Bears are coming off another heartbreaking defeat, losing 10–7 to Bates after surrendering a late touchdown. Bowdoin led in the fourth quarter before watching another opportunity slip away. At least Bowdoin found the end zone last week, avoiding setting the offensive futility record we discussed last week (which they can break this week). The bigger story in Brunswick is the Bowdoin coaching situation. B.J. Hammer is no longer serving as head coach, effective November 1, and the program enters its final game facing considerable uncertainty. The Polar Bears have scored just 50 points in eight games, averaging 6.25 points per contest. That's an astonishing lack of offensive production in today's college football. Colby has also struggled, but the Mules have demonstrated more offensive capability. They defeated Bates 21–19 two weeks ago before falling to Tufts 26–7. They seem to have finally found a QB. Bowdoin wins if: They score more than two touchdowns, don't turn the ball over, and get a dominant performance from their defensive front. Angus Leary has been outstanding, leading the conference with eight sacks and 14 tackles for loss. Colby wins if: They establish some offensive rhythm and take advantage of Bowdoin's inability to consistently move the football. We think the Mules are the better team and will finish their season with their second victory. Bowdoin finishes 0–9, and the offseason brings some very difficult questions about the future of the Polar Bear football program.

Colby 17 Bowdoin 6
Point Spread: Colby -10
Weather: Overcast. High 46F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

NESCAC GAME OF THE WEEK: The Turducken Bowl

Wesleyan University (7–1) at Hartford State College (8–0): NESCAC Championship Showdown. This is it. Nine weeks of football. One game remaining. A NESCAC championship and an NCAA Tournament berth hanging in the balance. For the first time in conference history, NESCAC football will send a team to the NCAA Division III Championship Tournament, and Saturday's matchup in Hartford could determine who gets that coveted invitation. Hartford State comes into the game undefeated at 8–0 following last week's 16–13 victory over Amherst. Wesleyan enters at 7–1 after defeating Williams 20–7. The Cardinals' only loss came against Amherst, 15–9, in a game they certainly had opportunities to win. This has all the makings of a classic Turducken Bowl.

Why we are picking Wesleyan:
1. Wesleyan's defense is playing its best football of the season. The Cardinals have allowed just seven points in their last two games, shutting out Bowdoin 28–0 and holding Williams to seven points. Jack Bronikowski has emerged as a major playmaker in the secondary, recording three interceptions over the past two games, including two against Williams. Wesleyan will need another outstanding defensive effort against the Bantams.
2. Hartford State's offense has come back to earth. The Bantams averaged nearly 40 points per game during their first four contests. Over their last four games, they have averaged just 19.5 points. Against Amherst, Trinity managed only 219 yards of total offense and failed to score an offensive touchdown. That's a significant change from the dominant offense we saw earlier in the season.
3. Wesleyan has the weapons to challenge Hartford State's defense. Wesleyan features a balanced offense with talented skill-position players capable of producing explosive plays. WR Sean Cannon had a monster game against Williams, catching six passes for 144 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown. The Cardinals cannot expect to consistently move the football against Hartford State's defense, so explosive plays could be the difference.
4. The pressure is on Hartford State. The Bantams have been the league's most dominant team throughout the season. They have led the standings since Week #1 and have a perfect season within their grasp. But Wesleyan has championship experience and understands what it takes to win big games. The Cardinals can play aggressively knowing a victory gives them at least a share of the conference championship. Wesleyan has had the Bants number in recent years winning the last two head-to-head matchups.

Why Hartford State could win:
1. The Bantams have the best defense in the NESCAC. Hartford State's defense has been outstanding all season. Last week against Amherst, senior LB Shane Mosia recorded 10 tackles, an interception, a blocked field goal, and a pass breakup. His performance earned him NESCAC Defensive Player of the Week honors. The Bantams have the defensive personnel to disrupt Wesleyan's passing game and force the Cardinals into mistakes.
2. Home-field advantage. Hartford State has been virtually unbeatable at home in recent years. Playing the Turducken Bowl in Hartford with an undefeated season on the line gives the Bantams a significant advantage.
3. The Bantams know how to win close games. Hartford State has survived consecutive three-point victories over Middlebury and Amherst. The Bantams have demonstrated they can win games even when their offense isn't clicking.
4. Championship experience. Hartford State has been one of the NESCAC's most consistently successful programs for more than two decades. They understand the importance of winning the line of scrimmage, limiting mistakes, and making big plays in critical moments.

Our assessment:
Factor/Advantage
Offense-Wesleyan
Defense-Hartford State
Quarterback play-Wesleyan
Running game-Hartford State
Passing game-Wesleyan
Special teams-Even
Home-field advantage-Hartford State
Recent momentum-Wesleyan
Championship experience-Even
Coaching-Even

Our prediction: We think this will be another classic NESCAC defensive battle. Hartford State's defense will make it difficult for Wesleyan to consistently sustain drives. But we also believe Wesleyan's defense has improved dramatically over the second half of the season. The key matchup will be Wesleyan's offense against the Bantams' defensive front. If Wesleyan can protect its quarterback and generate a few explosive passing plays, the Cardinals can win this game. We expect a relatively low-scoring contest with the outcome undecided until the fourth quarter. Our prediction is that Wesleyan scores a late touchdown and holds off Hartford State in the final minutes. The result? A potentially historic three-way tie for the NESCAC championship, depending on what happens in Williamstown. Let the Turducken festivities begin!

Wesleyan 24 Hartford State 23
Hartford State -3
Weather: Cloudy skies. High 46F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

NESCACMAN's Week 9 Picks at a Glance:
Game/Predicted Winner/Score/Point Spread
Amherst at Williams/Williams/17–13/Amherst -3
Middlebury at Tufts/Tufts/24–21/Tufts -2
UBates at Hamilton/Hamilton/31–17/Hamilton -10
Colby at Bowdoin/Colby/17–6/Colby -10
NESCAC Game of the Week: Wesleyan at Hartford State/Wesleyan/24–23/Hartford State -3