FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[amh63]

Amherst has its preview of the Colby game up on its football website. As expected the Coach's comments on the podcast is available...Jeff Report that also discuss the Midd game.

[NewtoNescac]

amh63 - You are the bearer of bad news. lol

[Nescacman]

With the CBB all at 0-3, I bring my weekly picks to hopefully lighten up our day. This is out on a limb, "upset week" for me. So here goes:

Williams 30  Middlebury 28
I'm just not sold on Middlebury's pass only offense, and marginal defense. And, Williams has surprised me this season. So, look for Kelton to shock everyone, with his back seemingly to the wall.

Tufts 24  Trinity 20
Trinity's offense is ok, and their defense is good but overrated. I really think Tufts is looking at this game as their opportunity to take the next step. This is the game that will have everyone taking them very seriously.

Bates 22  Wesleyan 21
Bates can and will run the ball on Wesleyan, and if they can hold Wes' QB from running too much on them, they squeak out a close one. Bates is due to put it all together, and Wesleyan just isn't that good.

Hamilton 14  Bowdoin 7
Battle of the winless. It just appears Hamilton is closer to putting it together than Bowdoin at this point. The game probably will be decided based on which team commits the most turnovers, or has the more costly penalties. But, one of these teams will end the day smiling and moving in the right direction. It just feels like Hamilton to me.

Colby 27  Amherst 21 (OT)
Colby was leading the undefeated Jeffs last season 3-0 at the half. If they can hold them to 3 TDs, avoid costly turnovers, and finally get their offense going and match those scores, Colby can shock them in OT. This is the week Colby "learns how to win".

NewtoNescac...Thank you for the comedic interlude...I haven't laughed that hard in weeks...I didn't realize you had such a good sense of humor. As others have noted, if even one of those upsets happens it will be shocking. You really must be new to NESCAC.

[NewtoNescac]

Nescacman - I like to think "outside of the box". What I've found is that their's little difference between the lower teams and the teams that are successful year after year. I do believe that at least 2 or 3 of those picks will be correct. I certainly don't expect to get them all right. But regardless of the outcomes, you've made my day knowing that I've given you a good laugh.

[Nescacman]

2015 Week #4 NESCAC Weekly Power Rankings

We are still looking for our first upset and surprise as we head into Week 4. Our game of the week in week 4 will be the battle of the unbeatens; Tufts v. Hartford State.

1.   Amherst (LW #1): Big win for the LJs last week, as they remain unbeaten. Look for them to lay some wood on the Mules this week in Waterville as they tune up for their Little 3 battle against Wes in Week 5.

2.   Hartford State (LW tie #3): Trinity continues to impress. Their defense is yet to give up any points in 3 games (their unusual point total of 4 last was derived from a Hamilton safety and returned XP for a 2 point score). Trinity goes on the road this week to face the unbeaten Tufts Jumbos (no, that is not a typo). This will be a reality check for Tufts. Their 3 wins have come against Hamilton (barely), Bates (barely), and Bowdoin. We remind everyone that those 3 teams are a combined 0-9. Tufts 5 game home winning streak ends this week.

3.   Middlebury (LW #2): Tough loss this week to the LJs. The lack of a running game was a huge problem for the Panthers as the LJ defensive line put their ears back and put big pressure on Milano all day. Fortunately for Middlebury, they get to play the Keltmen of Willytown this week at home in front of a huge homecoming crowd. This came could get ugly.

4.   Wesleyan (LW tie #3): This is a young team that continues to play down to their level of competition. Wes is #2 in the 'CAC in total offense and #3 in total defense. The good news is that they finally got the penalties under control in their 3rd game. The bad news is they continue to struggle to generate turnovers. Junior Devon Carillo continues to impress. 5th year star RB, LaDarius Drew, who was beat out in the pre-season at RB, may be done for the year with a leg issue.

5.   Tufts (LW #5): Once again, their 3 wins are against teams with a combined 0-9 record. We think a 5-3 season is still highly probable for the Jumbos. We are not buying into this team until they play some real competition. One big surprise, a Tufts RB leads the 'CAC in rushing...wow!

6.   Williams (LW #6): Williams is a team that will play close with the weaker teams in the conference and will lose every time to the upper echelon in the league. This week they play at Middlebury. They will lose.

7.   Bates (LW #7): Another close loss for the 'Cats. Their triple option offense continues to be as one-dimensional as Middlebury's is. Last week they only completed 2 passes all day and only one of those was by starting QB Duggan.

8.   Hamilton (LW #8): Hamilton has lost 23 games in a row. We think the streak ends this week at Bowdoin.

9.   Bowdoin (LW#9): If Bowdoin does not win this week, they may not have another shot at a win until week #7 as they face Hartford State and Wesleyan in weeks 5 and 6.

10.   Colby (LW#10): #1 vs. #10 this week as the Mules host the LJs. Not good for Colby.

[maineman]

2015 Week #4 NESCAC Weekly Power Rankings


8.   Hamilton (LW #8): Hamilton has lost 23 games in a row. We think the streak ends this week at Bowdoin.

9.   Bowdoin (LW#9): If Bowdoin does not win this week, they may not have another shot at a win until week #7 as they face Hartford State and Wesleyan in weeks 5 and 6.

10.   Colby (LW#10): #1 vs. #10 this week as the Mules host the LJs. Not good for Colby.

Does anybody know if the 23 game losing streak is a NESCAC record?  I think in the late 80's Colby had a long losing streak, but that may have been before they stopped play outside the conference.

[polbear73]

2015 Week #4 NESCAC Weekly Power Rankings


8.   Hamilton (LW #8): Hamilton has lost 23 games in a row. We think the streak ends this week at Bowdoin.

9.   Bowdoin (LW#9): If Bowdoin does not win this week, they may not have another shot at a win until week #7 as they face Hartford State and Wesleyan in weeks 5 and 6.

10.   Colby (LW#10): #1 vs. #10 this week as the Mules host the LJs. Not good for Colby.

Does anybody know if the 23 game losing streak is a NESCAC record?  I think in the late 80's Colby had a long losing streak, but that may have been before they stopped play outside the conference.

The losing streak that Tufts broke a year ago exceeded 30 games, for one. 

[gridiron]

Tufts' losing streak went to 31 games and ended only last season (2014).  Colby never had a comparable losing streak despite three lean seasons in the 1980s going 0-8, 1-7 and 0-8 in consecutive years.

[amh63]

I guess I missed the bus again on a discussion of the Colby football website.  Went to the roster to check out the players...old habit of comparative info on linemen, etc.  I realize that such data does not measure a player's " toughness" or " heart", etc. However, why does Colby not provide the size of players?....however faulty such data can be.  Find that unusual.
Seems there will be many Amherst buses going to Maine....as the soccer teams, etc are also going to crowd the freeways.
Interesting comments on the Jeff Report podcast...favorite Motel/ hotel no longer exist....prefer to stay a hour away from the game site to keep player' s game day routine the same...Colby is one of the most physical team.

[lumbercat]

If Grant plays Bowdoin beats Hamilton.

[PolarCat]

All this talk of Bowdoin has me wondering: How many more losses before folks here start reminiscing about the good old days of Caputi, père et fils? 

In both 2013 and 2014, the P Bears were 2-2 at the end of week 4.  Even in 2012, they started 1-3.  If the Continentals win tomorrow (and I sense they are the better team, with or without Drakely and / or Grant on the field), Coach Wells will be 0-4.

I am girding myself for the -K's that I know are coming...

[polbear73]

No -k from me, Polar Cat as I believed Bowdoin would be more competitive than they've shown.  Quite frankly, I had thought that the returning talent, coupled with new energy imported from a winning program, would have produced a much better showing.  I am not naïve and did not expect instant contention for a NESCAC title, but I did expect them to play Williams, Amherst, and Tufts much tougher and certainly not to fall behind by so much so early (71-16 cumulative deficit at halftime).  Still 5 games left and we Polar Bear fans will root hard for improvement and a win or two along the way, but the extent of this team's struggles has been surprising, at least to me. 

[PolarCat]

polbear, gotta give you a +K for typing "naive" with an umlaut.  I am not even sure where you find that on the keyboard (which is why I can't replicate it), but I applaud your old school attention to detail.

[polbear73]

Thanks for the k, PolarCat but you I owe you one.  It just popped up automatically.  I am just happy I spelled naïve correctly.

[Nescacman]

2015 Week #4 NESCAC Preview and Predictions

Welcome to Week 4 in the NESCAC..."the league where they pay to play". We went 4-1 last week and now stand at 12-3 for the season.

It's going to be a chilly fall day (and rainy in some places) for football in New England. This week features Trinity as they travel to Medford to face the Jumbos.

Bates College at Wesleyan University: Wesleyan has played Bates 28 times since 1983. They are 26-2 in those games losing only in 2004 and 2005 (both the losses were away, once at Bates and once on a neutral field-at Hartford State). Wesleyan has not lost at home to Bates since 1981 and has historically done a very good job of defending the triple option. Although we think Bates is better than their 0-3 record would indicate, we also think Wes is better than they have shown so far and that this young team will get better with every game. Bates will have to open it up a bit to have a chance and we are not sure they are capable of doing that. Wes does not lose often at home (2 losses the last 2 years), they don't lose to Bates, and they seem to have a knack for beating teams from Maine, especially at home (they have not lost to a team from Maine since 2009 under the Frank Hauser regime). Wes wins although Bates could make it interesting. 

Wesleyan 27 Bates 21
Weather: Not a factor (weather courtesy of the Weather Channel).

Williams College at Middlebury College: The "Kelton Kountdown" is now at 5 games and counting. Middlebury has won the last three games in this series that dates back to 1906. To no one's surprise, Middlebury will throw early and often. Williams #2 ranked pass defense will be tested and will need to stop QB Milano. In order for Williams to win, they will need to control the clock and run the ball effectively against Middlebury's run defense that has been less than stellar this year. We like Middlebury at home in front of a large homecoming crowd (despite the rain).

Middlebury 28 Williams 14
Weather: Showers, high in the mid 40's.

Hamilton College at Bowdoin College: Hamilton seeks to end their nation leading 23 game losing streak. We think this is the week it happens. Hamilton has played better against arguably tougher competition than Bowdoin has faced. Against the one common opponent they have (Tufts), Hamilton lost by 3 in OT and Bowdoin lost by 19. Coach Murray will get his first NESCAC win.

Hamilton 21 Bowdoin 17
Weather: Showers, high in the mid 50's.

Amherst College at Colby College: Amherst is #1 in scoring offense and total offense and #2 in scoring defense and total defense. Colby is last in offense and near the bottom in defense. We think the Amherst JV gets lots of PT in this one as they complete their sweep of the C-B-B.

Amherst 41 Colby 7
Weather: Showers, high in the low 50's.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Hartford State College at Tufts University: Tufts is off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2007 and has won 5 straight games at home. The #3 ranked Tufts offense has been surprisingly well balanced this year. In fact, Tufts RB Chance Brady leads the 'CAC in rushing averaging nearly 100 yards per game. Trinity is yet to give up a point defensively and has looked very good in going 3-0. They are number one in the league in total defense and number 4 in total offense. In order to have a shot, Tufts will need to force some turnovers to add to their league leading turnover ratio. We think Trinity's defense does enough to stop the Jumbo offense to win the game on the road.   

Trinity 28 Tufts 17
Weather: Not a factor.

NESCACMAN's Picks
Last week: 4-1 (2015 season to date: 12-3)
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8