FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Pat Coleman]

Pat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?

I think I talked about it here last offseason -- basically any NESCAC team that finished with one loss or fewer should get a bid, whether it's the AQ or an at-large. With no non-conference games, and just nine games, I'm not as sure about a 7-2 NESCAC team -- doesn't look super likely.

[HansenRatings]

Pat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?

I think I talked about it here last offseason -- basically any NESCAC team that finished with one loss or fewer should get a bid, whether it's the AQ or an at-large. With no non-conference games, and just nine games, I'm not as sure about a 7-2 NESCAC team -- doesn't look super likely.

It'll also depend on how the WP/SOS/QWB dials get adjusted. As they are right now, any team with 1 loss is going to be >99% to get in (it would take a historical anomaly in terms of exceeding the usual number of 1-loss teams nationally and the number of teams with 2+ losses winning conference AQs), and any team with 2 losses would be <1% to get in (it would take a historical anomaly in the opposite direction).

[Trin9-0]

Pat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?

I think I talked about it here last offseason -- basically any NESCAC team that finished with one loss or fewer should get a bid, whether it's the AQ or an at-large. With no non-conference games, and just nine games, I'm not as sure about a 7-2 NESCAC team -- doesn't look super likely.

For those wondering, historically it has been very common for the NESCAC to have multiple teams finish with 1 loss or fewer. In fact, over the past 25 seasons (including this year since it cannot happen) there's only been 8 years where the NESCAC didn't have multiple teams with 1 loss or fewer.

It's worth noting that for most of those years (17 seasons) we only had an 8 game schedule, thus one fewer opportunity to lose a game. However, even since 2017 there has been multiple teams with 1 or fewer losses in all but four seasons:

2023 - Middlebury (8-1), Trinity (8-1)
2021 - Williams (9-0), Trinity (8-1)
2019 - Middlebury (9-0), Wesleyan (8-1)
2018 - Trinity (8-1), Amherst (8-1)
2016 - Trinity (8-0), Tufts (7-1)
2015 - Amherst (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2014 - Amherst (8-0), Wesleyan (7-1)
2013 - Amherst (7-1), Middlebury (7-1), Wesleyan (7-1)
2012 - Trinity (8-0), Middlebury (7-1)
2011 - Amherst (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2010 - Williams (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2006 - Williams (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2005 - Trinity (8-0), Colby (7-1)
2002 - Trinity (7-1), Williams (7-1)
2001 - Williams (8-0), Amherst (7-1)
2000 - Amherst (7-1), Colby (7-1), Middlebury (7-1)

[Charlie]

Pat, what are your way too early thoughts on the likelihood of a NESCAC team earning an at large bid in 2026 and beyond?

I think I talked about it here last offseason -- basically any NESCAC team that finished with one loss or fewer should get a bid, whether it's the AQ or an at-large. With no non-conference games, and just nine games, I'm not as sure about a 7-2 NESCAC team -- doesn't look super likely.

For those wondering, historically it has been very common for the NESCAC to have multiple teams finish with 1 loss or fewer. In fact, over the past 25 seasons (including this year since it cannot happen) there's only been 8 years where the NESCAC didn't have multiple teams with 1 loss or fewer.

It's worth noting that for most of those years (17 seasons) we only had an 8 game schedule, thus one fewer opportunity to lose a game. However, even since 2017 there has been multiple teams with 1 or fewer losses in all but four seasons:

2023 - Middlebury (8-1), Trinity (8-1)
2021 - Williams (9-0), Trinity (8-1)
2019 - Middlebury (9-0), Wesleyan (8-1)
2018 - Trinity (8-1), Amherst (8-1)
2016 - Trinity (8-0), Tufts (7-1)
2015 - Amherst (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2014 - Amherst (8-0), Wesleyan (7-1)
2013 - Amherst (7-1), Middlebury (7-1), Wesleyan (7-1)
2012 - Trinity (8-0), Middlebury (7-1)
2011 - Amherst (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2010 - Williams (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2006 - Williams (8-0), Trinity (7-1)
2005 - Trinity (8-0), Colby (7-1)
2002 - Trinity (7-1), Williams (7-1)
2001 - Williams (8-0), Amherst (7-1)
2000 - Amherst (7-1), Colby (7-1), Middlebury (7-1)

I find it Comical that all through these years it seems to be the same teams year after year.Trinity , Williams , Middlebury  , Wesleyan and Colby only 2. Now we can speculate as to the reasons and blame admissions , COVID etc. I would think though that NESCAC schools should be saying what are we doing wrong that we consistently have loosing programs. I find it even more concerning that there are 10 NESCAC schools and only four have controlled the the number one seat.

The last time I viewed acceptance rates were around these numbers

Middlebury 13 %
Wesleyan   14-19 %
Williams   9 %
Trinity   31 %

so while these schools do have low acceptance rates they still are able to field highly competitive programs while the other schools having low acceptance rates cant seem to put a winning seasons or a championship in all this time.I would think at some point theses non contender would get sick of this and make a change.

[muleshoe]

The last time I viewed acceptance rates were around these numbers

Middlebury 13 %
Wesleyan   14-19 %
Williams   9 %
Trinity   31 %

One of these things is not like the others

[Nescacman]

So we had Coach Devanney on the 9 Weeks NESCAC Podcast this week (thanks for coming on, Coach!). A memorable quote from our interview:

"We've already told the team nobody gets rings for co-championships at Trinity, so if you wanna ring, you gotta win this game. If we're co-champs, we'll make a nice sweatshirt for the guys."

We think that pretty much sums up how we feel.

To hear the rest of our interview, please check out the podcast.

NM

[Nescacman]

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast Season 2, Episode 9

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast is the first podcast of its kind in NESCAC history. Hosted by Chris Grace (play-by-play announcer for Wesleyan) and Dave Bagatelle (Wesleyan Alum and former player), our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.

Coming Soon!!! Season 2 Episode 9 featuring Trinity College Head Coach Jeff Devanney and Middlebury College Running Back Connor McClellan.

The podcast is available wherever you find your podcasts including YouTube, Facebook, Apple and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.
 
Thank you to our sponsors Sloane and Walsh, LLP and Gameday Sports.
 
If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

Follow us on X (aka Twitter): @nineweeksnescac
Follow us on Instagram: @nineweeksnescac
Facebook: Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast (https://www.facebook.com/groups/3002038363271368)
YouTube: 9 Weeks Nescac (https://www.youtube.com/@nineweeksnescac)
Spotify Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac
Apple Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac
Visit Nescacfootballreport.com for NESCACMAN's picks/spreads, additional analysis and NESCAC reporting

[Nescacman]

2025 Week 9 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome back NESCAC...it's Week #9 "in the league where they pay to play". We can't believe that this is it. Another year in the books...and what a year it's been.

With one week to play, it comes down to Hartford State vs. Wesleyan. Winner claims the 2025 NESCAC Championship. The turducken Bowl is, of course, our game of the week as Wesleyan hosts the Bantams. The other big game is in Waterville where Colby and Bowdoin are playing for the CBB title.

We were 3-2 last week and now stand at 28-12 on the year.

Let's get to this week's games...

Williams College at Amherst College: "Biggest little second-place game in America". Not even the second most interesting game on the NESCAC schedule this week. This game will have no impact on the Little 3 title or the NESCAC Championship. Winner is playing for second place in the Little 3. Williams has lost 2 in a row and Amherst has lost 3 in a row. Will be interesting to see who is at QB for Williams. QB Owen Johansen did not play last week and was not himself 2 weeks ago. Must win for Amherst to finish over .500 and Williams is trying to show incremental improvement from 2024. Amherst's defense is very good (2nd in the NESCAC in total defense). We think Amherst will try to air it out against the Ephs just as Wesleyan did. Key for Amherst is protecting the QB against NESCAC's best pass rush. Amherst is 3rd in passing offense while the Ephs are last (by a long shot) in pass defense. Amherst will need a big day from QB Marek Hill and avoid turning the ball over to get the win. Incredible but true stats: 1). Williams has allowed 278 yards per game passing. 2). Amherst has only allowed 5 rushing TDs all year. 3). Williams has 26 sacks on defense and has only allowed 4 . We think the horrific loss last week to Wesleyan will be too much for Williams to overcome. We like Amherst to get the win at home in a slight upset over their rival and clinch a winning season.

Amherst 24 Williams 21
Point Spread:  Williams -3
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 59F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Hamilton College at University of Bates (Lewiston Campus): Hamilton is playing for pride and needs a win to improve on their record from 2024. UBates is trying to show improvement in 2025 as well. Winning and getting to 3-6 on the year would be directionally correct. Despite Hamilton's 1-7 record, 5 of their 7 losses have been close. Injuries have been a big part of the story for the Kitties in 2025. RB Ryan Lynskey came back last week but was clearly not 100%. We expect the Kitties to try to run and control the clock against a HAM defense that is last in the NESCAC. We expect HAM QB Luke Kurzum to throw the ball a ton. Incredible but true stat: 1). Hamilton only has 2 sacks and 2 interceptions as a team all year. We'll go with the Kitties to get the win at home in another close loss for the Conts.

UBates 24 Hamilton 17
Point Spread: UBates -7
Weather: Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 58F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Tufts University at Middlebury College: Battle between two 4-4 teams both fighting for a winning season. These teams are similar in many ways. We expect MID to run RB Connor McClelland a bunch against the 9th ranked Tufts run defense. Incredible but true stat: 1). MID only has 2 kick-off returns all year for a grand total of 8 return yards (4 yards per return). Schizophrenic Tufts team; one can never be sure which version will show up. We expect a close game, but we'll give the slight edge to the home team Pants as the Jumbo's close out the season with 2 straight losses.

Middlebury 24 Tufts 20
Point Spread: Middlebury -6
Weather: Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Slight chance of a rain shower. Morning high of 52F with temps falling to near 40. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Bowdoin College at Colby (5:00 PM kick-off): The only other game with juice this week in the NESCAC, Bowdoin/Colby for all the marbles in the C-B-B. Colby is riding a 3-game winning streak and is poised to have their best record in 20 years. Colby is going for their 5th C-B-B title in the last 7 years. For Bowdoin to have a chance in this game, they will need to stop the Colby running attack, put pressure on the young Colby QB, and generate some offense against a stout Colby defense. Bowdoin's FY QB Soren Hummell is playing well. DL Angus Leary is on his way to being named first-team NESCAC and is the reigning NESCAC DPOTW. FY Patrick Miller is doing a decent job for Colby in a game manager role. Not much has changed for Colby through the air (season long ineffectiveness) but they have cut down on turnovers and are running the ball much better. Not surprisingly, this has led to more offensive success for the Mules culminating in a 33-point outburst last Saturday against Tufts. This will be the last official game on the NESCAC season. Sad but true.  Bowdoin has won 2 of their last 3 games after starting the year 0-5. Incredible but true stats: 1). Bowdoin only has 10 TDs all year. 2). Colby only has 14 TDs all year (10 before last week's game). 3). Bowdoin only has 2 rushing TDs all year. 4). Colby only has 3 passing TDs all year. We expect a low-scoring game with Colby winning their 18th C-B-B title at home in the NESCAC finale.

Colby 20 Bowdoin 10
Point Spread: Colby -14
Weather: Clear skies with a few passing clouds. Low 29F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Hartford State College at Wesleyan University: NESCAC game of the year in Middletown. Battle of Connecticut for the 2025 NESCAC Championship. Just when you thought you couldn't beat last year's drama in South Hartford, we get "Round 2". Should be a great day, great game, great atmosphere at historic Andrus Field, the longest continuously used college football field in America. Regardless of the silly NESCAC tie-breaking rules, in the eyes of the vast majority of NESCAC experts (us included), and Coaches Devanney and DiCenzo, this game will decide the 2025 NESCAC Championship. Wesleyan is coming off a huge come from behind OT win in Williamstown last week in which they won their 4th straight Little 3 championship. The week before, they beat a very good Amherst squad in front of the largest crowd in the NESCAC in 2025. Meanwhile, Hartford State has won seven games in a row after a stunning opening day loss to the upstart Colby Mules. This game pits strength against strength. Wesleyan comes into this game with the #1 total defense and #1 rushing defense, while HS leads the NESCAC in total offense. Wesleyan's top passing offense will face a Bantam pass defense that is ranked first in the NESCAC. We expect HS to show a balanced attack leaning in on their dual headed monster at RB in Tyler DiNapoli and Tate Hoffmeister. WR Nolan O'Brien has been dynamic at WR and on specials for the Bants. QB Jaxon Carroll has been efficient in a game manager role leading the Bants offense. No team has been able to run against the stout Wesleyan defense, who is #1 in the NESCAC and 14th in the country in run defense so Hartford State may have to pass a bit more than they have as of late. The Bantams are 3rd in the NESCAC in passing TDs with 15. O'Brien is a dangerous weapon for HS on both offense and returning kicks on special teams. Meanwhile, we think Wesleyan will try to air it out. They have struggled to run the ball (9th in the NESCAC in rushing) while they are first in the NESCAC in passing. Last week, they set a team record for most passing yards in a game with 458 against Williams. It will be tougher this week for Wes. The Bants secondary will try to stop QB Matt Fitzsimons, WRs Blake Newcomb, WRs Dante Kelly, Sean Cannon, Sam Wein, and company. Wes will mix it up with some well-timed runs, but we expect a ton of passing from Wes. Wesleyan won last year in Hartford to capture the 2024 NESCAC championship and will be going for the repeat in 2025. The Bantams have gotten better as the season has progressed so this will be a definite challenge for the Cards. The Bants have been getting a lot of guys involved in the offense and have been distributing the ball much more than they normally do. Wesleyan has not beaten Trinity at home since 2014 and last beat the Bantams in back-to-back games in 1997 and 1998. We expect a very close, one-score game with Wes pulling out the W in an instant NESCAC classic on historic Andrus Field.

Wesleyan 30 Hartford State 27
Point Spread: Hartford State -3
Weather: Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 63F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Good luck to all the student-athletes and coaches this Saturday!

NESCACMAN's Picks:
2025 Season: 28-12 (.700 winning percentage)
2024 Season: 38-7
2023 Season: 31-14
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0 (COVID)
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 389-126 (.755 winning percentage)

**********

Follow NESCACMAN us on X: @realnescacman

**********

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast is the first podcast of its kind in NESCAC history. Hosted by Chris Grace (play-by-play announcer for Wesleyan) and Dave Bagatelle (Wesleyan Alum and former player), our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.
 
Season 2 Episode 9 featuring Trinity College Head Coach Jeff Devanney and Middlebury College RB Connor McClelland.

The podcast is available wherever you get your podcasts including YouTube, Facebook, Apple and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.
 
Thank you to our sponsors Sloane and Walsh, LLP and Gameday Sports.
 
If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

Follow us on X (aka Twitter): @nineweeksnescac
Follow us on Instagram: @nineweeksnescac
Facebook: Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast (https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1EbgGxDZRd/)
YouTube: 9 Weeks Nescac (https://www.youtube.com/@nineweeksnescac)
Spotify Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac
Apple Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac

Look for NESCACMAN's weekly predictions and point spreads at nescacfootballreport.com

[Trin9-0]

So we had Coach Devanney on the 9 Weeks NESCAC Podcast this week (thanks for coming on, Coach!). A memorable quote from our interview:

"We've already told the team nobody gets rings for co-championships at Trinity."

I can attest to this. I've got a watch that I've never worn from 2002 when we were co-champs with Williams.


It's no surprise that Nescacman picked the Cards. However, I thought the 30-27 score prediction was interesting. Trinity has allowed 30 points or more just three times in the past 15 seasons (that's 2.4% of their games). It's been a quarter century since Wes scored 30+ vs. Trinity (37 in 2000). Sure, Wesleyan averages just under 30 ppg for the year but the Bants lead the league in scoring defense at 13 ppg. It's also worth noting that three of the league leading 14 touchdowns scored against them were actually defensive or special teams touchdowns.

I do agree Wesleyan will air it out as Fitzsimons is legit and Newcomb and Kelly are very dangerous. Plus it's unlikely the Cards' 9th ranked running game will have much success on the ground against a rushing defense that gives up 92 ypg. However, if Wes can't find success against the league's best passing defense it could be in trouble against a balanced Bantam offensive attack.

One area that does really concern me is the Bantam kicking game. After being spoiled for many years with historically excellent kickers, this year Trinity has made just 40% of their field goal attempts and missed three extra points. In a close game, on grass, this could be the difference between a sweatshirt and a ring. In the end I'll take Trinity to win (and cover the -3 Nescacman spread) 21-17. Note, that wouldn't be enough to cover using the SP+ 6.7 score projection.

I also disagree on the Ephs and Mammoths. While I was very impressed with the Amherst front seven against Trinity, and Williams comes limping into the game I think they'll find just enough to win (but not cover -3) for their first victory at Pratt field since '21.

Finally, in a super-duper-ultra upset special I'll go with Bowdoin, to not only cover but, WIN on the road against the Mules to claim the outright CBB title (the third time in four years they'll lay claim to at least a share of the most adorable trophy in Maine). Give me Bates and Middlebury to round things out.

I'm still trying to convince my wife that the NESCAC football championship game is a great way to spend quality time with our three young kids. If I'm successful I'll be sure to swing by the Nescacman tailgate.

[Nescacman]

So we had Coach Devanney on the 9 Weeks NESCAC Podcast this week (thanks for coming on, Coach!). A memorable quote from our interview:

"We've already told the team nobody gets rings for co-championships at Trinity."

I can attest to this. I've got a watch that I've never worn from 2002 when we were co-champs with Williams.


It's no surprise that Nescacman picked the Cards. However, I thought the 30-27 score prediction was interesting. Trinity has allowed 30 points or more just three times in the past 15 seasons (that's 2.4% of their games). It's been a quarter century since Wes scored 30+ vs. Trinity (37 in 2000). Sure, Wesleyan averages just under 30 ppg for the year but the Bants lead the league in scoring defense at 13 ppg. It's also worth noting that three of the league leading 14 touchdowns scored against them were actually defensive or special teams touchdowns.

I do agree Wesleyan will air it out as Fitzsimons is legit and Newcomb and Kelly are very dangerous. Plus it's unlikely the Cards' 9th ranked running game will have much success on the ground against a rushing defense that gives up 92 ypg. However, if Wes can't find success against the league's best passing defense it could be in trouble against a balanced Bantam offensive attack.

One area that does really concern me is the Bantam kicking game. After being spoiled for many years with historically excellent kickers, this year Trinity has made just 40% of their field goal attempts and missed three extra points. In a close game, on grass, this could be the difference between a sweatshirt and a ring. In the end I'll take Trinity to win (and cover the -3 Nescacman spread) 21-17. Note, that wouldn't be enough to cover using the SP+ 6.7 score projection.

I also disagree on the Ephs and Mammoths. While I was very impressed with the Amherst front seven against Trinity, and Williams comes limping into the game I think they'll find just enough to win (but not cover -3) for their first victory at Pratt field since '21.

Finally, in a super-duper-ultra upset special I'll go with Bowdoin, to not only cover but, WIN on the road against the Mules to claim the outright CBB title (the third time in four years they'll lay claim to at least a share of the most adorable trophy in Maine). Give me Bates and Middlebury to round things out.

I'm still trying to convince my wife that the NESCAC football championship game is a great way to spend quality time with our three young kids. If I'm successful I'll be sure to swing by the Nescacman tailgate.

We'll save you 5 slices of turducken for the entire Hs7-2 brood as well as Momma and Poppa Hs7-2. Roll Cards!

NM

[Nescacman]

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast Season 2, Episode 9

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast is the first podcast of its kind in NESCAC history. Hosted by Chris Grace (play-by-play announcer for Wesleyan) and Dave Bagatelle (Wesleyan Alum and former player), our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.

Available Now!!! Season 2 Episode 9 featuring Trinity College Head Coach Jeff Devanney and Middlebury College Running Back Connor McClellan.

The podcast is available wherever you find your podcasts including YouTube, Facebook, Apple and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.
 
Thank you to our sponsors Sloane and Walsh, LLP and Gameday Sports.
 
If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

Follow us on X (aka Twitter): @nineweeksnescac
Follow us on Instagram: @nineweeksnescac
Facebook: Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast (https://www.facebook.com/groups/3002038363271368)
YouTube: 9 Weeks Nescac (https://www.youtube.com/@nineweeksnescac)
Spotify Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac
Apple Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac
Visit Nescacfootballreport.com for NESCACMAN's picks/spreads, additional analysis and NESCAC reporting

[Trin9-0]

No comment at this time. 

Nescacman, genuinely sorry to miss you at the game/tailgate. Having the kids at the game was like herding cats.

Congrats to you and Wes.