FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Brady12]

Colby bringing in a high rated transfer QB from Trinity University (Tx.). Stephen Gill 6'1" 200.  2 years of eligibility.

Anyone have an update on how the Gill/Miller competition is going? 

[Trin9-0]

Williams record of; 3-6 5-3 5-3 last three years make me think back to this years senior class, If they can stay healthy this could be the year.  In 2023 they brought in Johansen, McHugh, Renzella at QB.  Stahelski, Gering at WR along with Carroll, Baker, and others I thought that class has a chance to be special. Getting them all on the field will be the challenge.  Back then I thought Johansen may end up at LB as he was a wrecking ball in high school. Adding in the talent at WR and TE will allow players like Gering to concentrate on defense. I will take the over on 5.2 

OK, we'll bite on the under...

I'll take that bet Nescacman! I'd be very surprised if the Ephs lose 4 games this fall.


On a separate note; I stumbled across the official NESCAC Football Tie-breaking Procedures for determining which team earns the conference's NCAA playoff bid in the event of a tie:

• Best record among tied teams, against one another (head-to-head).
• Comparison of results of conference games played against top 4 teams (including all teams at the 4th spot).
• Comparison of results of conference games played against top 8 teams (including all teams at the 8th spot).
• Comparison of results of conference games played against conference teams in rank order. Comparisons shall be made one team at a time starting with the highest ranked team.
• If the tie remains after comparing results against the highest ranked team, the results against the next team in rank order shall be used. This process is continued until a winner is determined.
• Coin flip or similar random action involving all tied teams (names being pulled out of a hat-the first team pulled will be the automatic qualifier).

Interesting that they will continue awarding "Co-Champion" and "Tri-Champion" status and only use the tie-breaker for the AQ bid process. Obviously, in the case of two teams finishing with the same record head-to-head is the determining factor.

The dreaded "random action" is the sixth and final option. However, in the event that three Championship teams are tied with a single round-robin style loss then literally pulling a name out of a hat is their solution to determine the Automatic Qualifier. GROSS!

Additionally, if I'm interpreting this correctly, then I also vehemently disagree with the most likely 3-way tie-breaking scenario for teams with 2 losses. For example; let's say Trinity, Wesleyan and Williams all finish 7-2.

Trinity's losses are to Williams and Middlebury (who finishes 6-3, 4th place)
Williams' losses are to Wesleyan and Amherst (who finishes 5-4, 5th place)
Wesleyan's losses are to Trinity and Bates (who finishes 2-7, 8th place)

In this scenario Wesleyan, who would have by far the worst loss of the three championship teams, would get the AQ playoff bid. Trinity who had the least egregious defeat, a loss to 4th place Middlebury, would be the first team eliminated. Then Williams would be eliminated due to their head-to-head loss to Wes.

Is it me or is this completely backwards? Shouldn't the team with the worst loss be eliminated first?
Am I interpreting this correctly? What are everyone else's thoughts?

I realize there's not many good ways to break a three-way tie but rewarding a team for the poorest result is baffling. For what it's worth, my preference for breaking a three-way tie among championship teams with more than 1 loss is point differential among in the games played between the Championship teams.

[Brady12]

I like the point differential idea.  And with that said what is worse a 35 point loss to the 4th place team at home, or a 2 point loss to an 8th place team in 4 OT's on the road? 

[Brady12]

Here's what the Hansen ratings project for NESCAC win totals this season:

Trinity 7.1
Wesleyan 6.5
Williams 5.2
Middlebury 4.9
Amherst 4.6
Colby 4.3
Tufts 3.9
Hamilton 3
Bowdoin 2.9
Bates 2.7

Seems like another example of expected parity in the league this year. With that said the model has it as a two horse race for the title as it gives Trinity a 42% chance to win the NESCAC followed by Wesleyan at 26%. No other team is in double digits. I'd put Trin and Wes much closer together. This rating doesn't seem optimistic about an at-large playoff bid either. Wes has just an 8% chance and Trinity 7%.

Other notable points: Wesleyan returns an astounding 91% of their offensive production; tops in the league and 8th in the nation. Hamilton is not far behind with 90%, good for 10th in the country. It has Colby bringing back the least total production in the league with just 56%. Tufts has only 45% of their defensive production back this year. Not a great sign for team that finished 9th in scoring defense in 2025. Of the contenders, it has Trinity with the lowest returning total production (just 61%... yikes).

Williams record of; 3-6 5-3 5-3 last three years make me think back to this years senior class, If they can stay healthy this could be the year.  In 2023 they brought in Johansen, McHugh, Renzella at QB.  Stahelski, Gering at WR along with Carroll, Baker, and others I thought that class has a chance to be special. Getting them all on the field will be the challenge.  Back then I thought Johansen may end up at LB as he was a wrecking ball in high school. Adding in the talent at WR and TE will allow players like Gering to concentrate on defense. I will take the over on 5.2   

Meant 5-4 and 5-4 records.  Tis Nine weeks after all. 

[Nescacman]

Williams record of; 3-6 5-3 5-3 last three years make me think back to this years senior class, If they can stay healthy this could be the year.  In 2023 they brought in Johansen, McHugh, Renzella at QB.  Stahelski, Gering at WR along with Carroll, Baker, and others I thought that class has a chance to be special. Getting them all on the field will be the challenge.  Back then I thought Johansen may end up at LB as he was a wrecking ball in high school. Adding in the talent at WR and TE will allow players like Gering to concentrate on defense. I will take the over on 5.2 

OK, we'll bite on the under...

I'll take that bet Nescacman! I'd be very surprised if the Ephs lose 4 games this fall.


On a separate note; I stumbled across the official NESCAC Football Tie-breaking Procedures for determining which team earns the conference's NCAA playoff bid in the event of a tie:

• Best record among tied teams, against one another (head-to-head).
• Comparison of results of conference games played against top 4 teams (including all teams at the 4th spot).
• Comparison of results of conference games played against top 8 teams (including all teams at the 8th spot).
• Comparison of results of conference games played against conference teams in rank order. Comparisons shall be made one team at a time starting with the highest ranked team.
• If the tie remains after comparing results against the highest ranked team, the results against the next team in rank order shall be used. This process is continued until a winner is determined.
• Coin flip or similar random action involving all tied teams (names being pulled out of a hat-the first team pulled will be the automatic qualifier).

Interesting that they will continue awarding "Co-Champion" and "Tri-Champion" status and only use the tie-breaker for the AQ bid process. Obviously, in the case of two teams finishing with the same record head-to-head is the determining factor.

The dreaded "random action" is the sixth and final option. However, in the event that three Championship teams are tied with a single round-robin style loss then literally pulling a name out of a hat is their solution to determine the Automatic Qualifier. GROSS!

Additionally, if I'm interpreting this correctly, then I also vehemently disagree with the most likely 3-way tie-breaking scenario for teams with 2 losses. For example; let's say Trinity, Wesleyan and Williams all finish 7-2.

Trinity's losses are to Williams and Middlebury (who finishes 6-3, 4th place)
Williams' losses are to Wesleyan and Amherst (who finishes 5-4, 5th place)
Wesleyan's losses are to Trinity and Bates (who finishes 2-7, 8th place)

In this scenario Wesleyan, who would have by far the worst loss of the three championship teams, would get the AQ playoff bid. Trinity who had the least egregious defeat, a loss to 4th place Middlebury, would be the first team eliminated. Then Williams would be eliminated due to their head-to-head loss to Wes.

Is it me or is this completely backwards? Shouldn't the team with the worst loss be eliminated first?
Am I interpreting this correctly? What are everyone else's thoughts?

I realize there's not many good ways to break a three-way tie but rewarding a team for the poorest result is baffling. For what it's worth, my preference for breaking a three-way tie among championship teams with more than 1 loss is point differential among in the games played between the Championship teams.

Brady threw out the challenge, but we'll take any action Hs7-2...you're on...loser buys the Turducken in week 9...

[Bantamsdad69]

I don't understand the williams hype at all. I feel like every year people are saying this is the year and every year injuries seem to derail them. At this point it seems kind of expected for them to have an underwhelming season. Owen McHugh isn't the guy we think he is, and Montesano isn't going to play the role NESCAC1 is saying he had 92 in 9 games.

[Nescacman]

I don't understand the williams hype at all. I feel like every year people are saying this is the year and every year injuries seem to derail them. At this point it seems kind of expected for them to have an underwhelming season. Owen McHugh isn't the guy we think he is, and Montesano isn't going to play the role NESCAC1 is saying he had 92 in 9 games.

We feel the same way. As we have noted many times, in recent years, William's has had one of the smaller rosters in the league coming into the season. They have also been stung by injury in many of those season's, frequently impacting some of their best players. What that means is that you go into the toughest part of your schedule with an available pool of student-athletes that is often much smaller then the team you are playing. Case in point, over the last 3 years they are a combined 2-7 over the last 3 games and have lost 11 of the last 12 games to Wesleyan, who they play in week 8 (always max's out their roster). Last year in their loss to Wesleyan, they were forced to play their 4th string QB (who was serviceable, btw but apparently has now given up on football transferimg to NYU) after losing McHugh, Johansen and Renzella. We're not sure if it is conditioning, practice routine, depth, scheme, or just dumb luck, but suiting up 55-60 guys when the other team is suiting up 80 is tough to overcome. We're from Missouri on this one. 5 wins for the Ephs feels like a ceiling to us right now on September 5th. NM

[SpringSt7]

I will take the o5.5 on the Ephs as well - I have been pretty down on the team the last few years but they showed a lot of potential last year and obviously health will be the biggest factor as NESCACMAN accurately notes the small roster is an issue. Owen McHugh is not the guy we thought he was but the good news is that he isn't the starting QB anymore and hasn't been for a while and the actual starter is an OPOY candidate!

Realistically, it comes down to the Amherst, Middlebury, and Tufts games. Win two of those three and you are at 6 wins with a chance against Trinity who they should've beaten last year and as I have said several times, when the talent has been close to 50/50, Raymond has shown that he gives Devanney troubles. No disrespect to the CBB and Hamilton but Williams gets 3 of the 4 of them at home and are something like 37-2 against them since 2018, with both of those coming in the rather cursed 2022 season.

As for Wesleyan, well they just have our number and there is always some sort of voodoo magic that seems to push it over the edge. I didn't think it could get much more painful than the 2017-2019 run but this 2023-2025 run was way, way worse. Not to mention Williams hasn't won in Middletown since 2011 (the Matt Coyne revenge game, that maybe used up all of our juju), so hard to be confident in that game really at all, just the reality. But I would be surprised if they won less than 6 games