FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[nescac1]

Some thoughts on Williams-Bowdoin:

First, obviously, losing Johansen in the first game of the season is absolutely brutal, really feel for him as he has experienced a ton of bad luck starting in H.S..  I think he's the best overall athlete in NESCAC when healthy, but that has rarely been the case, as he missed his entire FY, was used sparingly his soph year as he came back, had his junior year end half-way through, and now this.  I really hope he returns for a fifth season to give it another go, but I could obviously see why he'd maybe just want to call it a career.  Williams is fortunate to have two very experienced and capable back-ups in seniors Owen McHugh and Renzella, so should still be fine at QB and perhaps better than fine given McHugh's upside potential, but Johnsen was absolutely special when he was healthy last year.   Also feel terrible for Bates/Lynskey, Lynskey is a monster, clearly the best TB in NESCAC when healthy, but another guy who has really had bad luck with significant injuries. 

Heading into the year, I thought Williams would have a dominant offense with some question marks on defense, but in game one, the D clearly outplayed the offense.  Three turnovers was obviously the biggest culprit for the offense, but Bowdoin's defensive speed up front gave the much bigger, veteran Eph offensive line some real problems, as they  made life very difficult for the Eph QBs whenever they dropped back to pass.  Overall, the passing game just was not sharp and while that was the biggest reason why, the entire unit from snap to catch needs to play better.  On the plus side, the bigger line did, predictably, wear down the small Bowdoin front and in the second half were blowing them off the ball for big running play after big running play, Williams Sport Info posted a Jack Fabiano highlight reel and defenders are getting pancaked four yards down the field.  Fabiano had an incredibly impressive debut and looks like the real deal at TB, very fluid with great vision and broke a  lot of tackles; hopefully Matt Bott who has game-breaking ability can return to give the Ephs a true 1-2 punch at TB.  Zach Falls, easily the Ephs' best weapon in the passing game, had only one catch for six yards and Williams will need to find ways to get him more involved.  It did seem like Bowdoin was shading a lot of coverage his way and some of the other guys were very open as a consequence, but Falls is a big-time playmaker and Williams needs to get him the ball.

The Williams defense played spectacularly most of the game, especially against the run.  The Gale-Yedid-Baker front three dominated the point of attack, those guys seemed to play a LOT of snaps with questionable depth behind them, but all three are all-league players if they stay healthy. Baker in particular had a massive game.  Sean Rooney had a great game filling in for (presumably) an injured Luke Mangini and once Mangini returns I expect will still see a lot of game action, like Mangini a big, physical LB.  Connor Acheson used his speed to be all over the field.  The secondary rotated a ton of guys in and out but generally held up well, we will see how improved they are when they start facing teams with better offensive weapons than Bowdoin has but in week one they were rock-solid. Highly touted FY Finn Ryan looked really good on his INT and I expect he will get more and more snaps going forward.  Another FY, Will Machnik, played a lot of snaps at CB and looked like a strong addition to the unit as well.  Two of the FYs who saw snaps on D, Machnik and Montesano, are one half of impressive brother pairings (the Ephs have loads of those ...).

For Bowdoin, it's the same story as usual.  The defensive front has a ton of speed and really creates a lot of negative plays, turnovers, etc.  But as the game goes along that style of constant attacking wears you down, and that plus the general lack of size really showed up in the second half when the Ephs ran them into the ground.  I thought Bowdoin's QB played very well but he didn't have a lot of time to throw and guys didn't seem all that open, but he seems like a solid piece to build around.  Bowdoin's offensive line has to play better as 21 carries for 12 net yards just isn't going to get it done, the Eph run defense should be very good this hear with a massive, veteran front seven, but not THAT good.  The Ephs did a good job keeping Angus Leary fairly in check, Charlie Saurack was the guy who really popped for Bowdoin as he seemed to be in the backfield a lot. 

Going forward, the Ephs need to hope McHugh looks solid as a dual-threat QB while they presumably lean heavily on the run game, which is their typical M.O. in any event.  The Ephs need to clean up some of the pass-protection issues, penalties (60 yards in penalties vs. only 6 yards for Bowdoin helped to keep the game close), and turnover issues, and get Falls (and also Montesano) more involved on offense.  As for Bowdoin, the defensive speed can create enough havoc to keep them in games vs. much of the league, but they are just not physical enough on either line nor do they have enough game breakers at the skill positions to win more than 2-3 games, tops, I'd say.   

[lumbercat]

Hearing from more than one source regarding controversy at Bowdoin surrounding a potential personnel issue relative to the coaching staff. I won't comment on rumors here on the board until the situation can be factually clarified. Rumor only at this point from what I can see.

Does anyone closer to the program know anything about developments and disclosures that may have been issued within the Bowdoin community?

[Trin9-0]

The SP+ model went 5-0 in Week 1 of NESCAC play. Here are the Week 2 score projections:

Amherst 29.7 @ Hamilton 14.7

Middlebury 24.3 @ Bowdoin 13.5

Trinity 42.0 @ Bates 5.6

Tufts 17.1 @ Wesleyan 37.6

Williams 23.7 @ Colby 13.5

Completely opposite from last week; the computer likes the road teams outside of Wes. Similar to last week it's projecting lopsided scores. For Week 1 the average projected point differential across all five games was 21.4 (the actual was 15.2). This week the average point differential is 18.6 with Williams @ Colby and Middlebury @ Colby projected to be the closest games.

Tufts and Wesleyan are the only unbeaten teams facing off and is a solid choice for game of the week. Disappointed that it won't be a night game at Andrus.

Here's how the NESCAC ranks nationally per the SP+ rating (last weeks ranking in parenthesis):
34. Trinity (35)
41. Wesleyan (57)
97. Williams (92)
112. Tufts (119)
131. Amherst (140)
133. Middlebury (98)
159. Colby (148)
188. Bowdoin (195)
189. Bates (192)
199. Hamilton (200)

[Bantamsdad69]

Don't know what this model sees in Amherst's offense, but would be very surprised if they put up 30 points even against a weak Hamilton team. I was also curious about where the discrepancy is between the NESCAC and top D3 teams, is it size, speed, top-end talent, overall talent?

[nescac1]

I just don't understand how the model can possibly rank NESCAC against other teams when there is literally NO data available to do so.  Once NESCAC teams participate in the tournament, then, sure.  But until then, it feels wildly speculative.  Could Trinity be the 31st best team?  Sure.  Could then be the 15th best or 50th best?  That seems equally plausible!