FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[ItsATuftSituation]

Ryan Lynskey just posted this on his Instagram page. He states in his caption,

"They say to leave the game before the game leaves you, but I don't think the game will ever leave me. While I struggle to make sense of why this has happened, I realize how lucky I am to love something so much that it hurts this badly to have it taken from me. I don't know if I'll ever lace up my cleats and strap on my pads again, but if this is where my journey ends, I will forever be grateful I got to end it alongside my brothers. Maybe the point of it all wasn't to become a man who doesn't fall, but a man who always finds a reason to stand back up. Thank you Bates Football, you have changed my life. 4 out ✌️#344"

If this is it for him, he made an unmistakable impact on the NESCAC and Bates football. Best of luck to him. Pretty emotional post, really feel for him. I hope this isn't it for him.

[Nescacman]

Ryan Lynskey just posted this on his Instagram page. He states in his caption,

"They say to leave the game before the game leaves you, but I don't think the game will ever leave me. While I struggle to make sense of why this has happened, I realize how lucky I am to love something so much that it hurts this badly to have it taken from me. I don't know if I'll ever lace up my cleats and strap on my pads again, but if this is where my journey ends, I will forever be grateful I got to end it alongside my brothers. Maybe the point of it all wasn't to become a man who doesn't fall, but a man who always finds a reason to stand back up. Thank you Bates Football, you have changed my life. 4 out ✌️#344"

If this is it for him, he made an unmistakable impact on the NESCAC and Bates football. Best of luck to him. Pretty emotional post, really feel for him. I hope this isn't it for him.

We were fortunate to have Ryan as a guest on our podcast. Very impressive and a stand-up guy (as are all of the student-athletes we have as guests on the show). Feel really bad for him. Like Johansen, sounds like another guy who's great career will be cut short by injury. We're sure that whatever he does post UBates, he'll be a success. Good luck to him and congratulations on his accomplishments both on and off the field.

And if you want to watch the interview with Ryan Lynskey on the 9 Weeks NESCAC Podcast, here you go:

https://youtu.be/Cm_ufXbHk6Y?is=WSvzNR0n9wbwNE2B

NM

[Nescacman]

This week's Wesleyan/Tufts highlights:

https://youtu.be/d95TDH7xEaU?si=Ootrc_ZaYtTnG_15

[NEfootballfan999]

I've watched a lot of games this season (retired.) Wesleyan and Trinity are a cut above, players, coaching, schemes. Tufts has talent; they could upset some teams. Agree on Williams: they can pound it, impressed with interior offensive line and RB-  but another 5-4 or 6-3 season is what they are. The kid who came in cold last year and threw TDs v Bates and i think Wesleyan has graduated so they are stuck. Amherst looks strong. They're well coached and could be a surprise - they play hard. The Maine schools- better luck next year.

[UfanBill]

Was in Medford to watch the Jumbos play Hamilton. Sad that Hamilton's stud first-year RB got hurt on the final play of the game. He was super dynamic, scored three times in the game. Hope he's okay but he was down for a long, long time.

Never like to hear about injuries. We hope he is OK.

Not sure if 7 carries for 33 yards (and 6 catches primarily on dump passes) warrants the term "stud" but he did score 3x and HCOF Murray was very high on Ace when we spoke to Coach on our season preview 9 Weeks NESCAC podcast. He certainly has one of the better names in the NESCAC so there is that... 

A little research shows that Etienne was previously hurt the final game of his 2024 high school junior season. A broken fibula. That would probably explain why coaches shied away from recruiting him. To his credit he rehabbed religiously and had a solid senior season. Hopefully he can recover from this latest injury. I feel for the kid.

[TheJeff]

Was in Medford to watch the Jumbos play Hamilton. Sad that Hamilton's stud first-year RB got hurt on the final play of the game. He was super dynamic, scored three times in the game. Hope he's okay but he was down for a long, long time.

Never like to hear about injuries. We hope he is OK.

Not sure if 7 carries for 33 yards (and 6 catches primarily on dump passes) warrants the term "stud" but he did score 3x and HCOF Murray was very high on Ace when we spoke to Coach on our season preview 9 Weeks NESCAC podcast. He certainly has one of the better names in the NESCAC so there is that... 

A little research shows that Etienne was previously hurt the final game of his 2024 high school junior season. A broken fibula. That would probably explain why coaches shied away from recruiting him. To his credit he rehabbed religiously and had a solid senior season. Hopefully he can recover from this latest injury. I feel for the kid.

He played against Amherst and appeared healthy. He's fast but I'm not sure if I'd call him dynamic yet. Hard to run with that OL, but he's too small to run between the tackles right now. He'll put on size as he gets older and I could see him as a legit back in the league as an upperclassman.

[TheJeff]

On a different note, I believe this week will be the most telling out of any yet. I agree Trinity and Wesleyan are clear interchangeable 1/2, but this week will show where the rest of the league stands. I think Bowdoin's defense is legit and if Amherst can put up points on them, I don't see any reason why Amherst wouldn't be considered the third best team in the league. Colby vs. Midd and Tufts vs. Bates are two other revealing games this week. The winners of those will show who's in the middle of the league and who's in the bottom. Would be interesting if the Maine teams can pull off some upsets...

[Nescacman]

Just to level set expectations and get everyone used to the new reality, all that really matters as far as rankings and where your favorite team sits nationally relative to the NCAA tournament is NPI. Although we are about two weeks from the NCAA publishing their first official NPI ranking, there are sites that mathematically calculate a close approximation (their words, not ours) NPI ranking using similar formula's that the NCAA uses. SP+ and all of the other national rankings are interesting, but really meaningless.

Here is one of those simulated NPI rankings:

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

You can complain all you want but this is what the NCAA will use to select the 2026 play-off bracket. As a reminder, there are 29 automatically qualifiers ("AQ") and 11 at-large bids. As of right now, NPI only shows one team from the NESCAC qualifying, our AQ. Still a ton of football to play, obviously, but interesting.

NM

[Trin9-0]

Just to level set expectations and get everyone used to the new reality, all that really matters as far as rankings and where your favorite team sits nationally relative to the NCAA tournament is NPI. Although we are about two weeks from the NCAA publishing their first official NPI ranking, there are sites that mathematically calculate a close approximation (their words, not ours) NPI ranking using similar formula's that the NCAA uses. SP+ and all of the other national rankings are interesting, but really meaningless.

Here is one of those simulated NPI rankings:

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

You can complain all you want but this is what the NCAA will use to select the 2026 play-off bracket. As a reminder, there are 29 automatically qualifiers ("AQ") and 11 at-large bids. As of right now, NPI only shows one team from the NESCAC qualifying, our AQ. Still a ton of football to play, obviously, but interesting.

NM

Great data Nescacman... it's a strange new world we're all entering and there's certainly a learning curve. For further illustration of how the NESCAC appears to be a two-horse race after just two weeks, take a look at the Hansen Ratings (which by the way projects a different NESCAC NPI leader) and their projected odds of earning a Pool A (automatic qualifying bid by winning the conference):

Trinity	49.5%
Wesleyan	37.0%
Williams	5.9%
Amherst	5.5%
Middlebury	1.7%
Tufts	0.3%
Colby	0.0%
Bowdoin	0.0%
Bates	0.0%
Hamilton	0.0%

The drop-off after the top two is staggering and frankly seems a little harsh, especially given that none of the top four teams have even played one another yet. But at the same time I can't say I really disagree at this point. We'll obviously know more about Trinity and Williams after this week.

[Patrick Coleman]

D3 Datacast is reporting what has actually happened, while Hansen Ratings indeed is doing a projection of how it will shake out when all is said and done.

Those two are the gold standards on these things and my go-to source for such info.

Eventually the NCAA will start publishing NPI for football and that is the official number, but D3 Datacast's track record is great. They've been tracking NPI for as long as we've been doing it in D-III and they've got it down to a science, sometimes with better data than the NCAA (and usually able to get the NCAA to correct their data if it's wrong).

[nescac1]

NPI is very hard to measure for NESCAC teams without a single non-league game historically.  I can't even imagine how, this year, it's remotely accurate (in terms of comparing Nescac teams to other leagues).  Starting next year, when there at least has been some post-season data, I imagine it will give a much better sense of relative strength. 

Heatbreaking post from Lynskey.  Really feel for him and Owen J.  When they were 100 percent both were so physically dominant. 

[Charlie]

I watched Wesleyan over the weekend and clearly Trinity and Wesleyan are 1 & 2 in the league. I think a more concerning measure is that really there are 4 teams year after year Trinity , Wesleyan , Williams & Middlebury. At least from championship perspective.

I can't count Tufts as there success was in large part to the Berluti years.

The rest of the league has at best maybe a winning season here or there but for the most part mediocrity at best. Since the advent of playoffs this will become more apparent in subsequent years. A recruit would look at the top 4 schools and consider them before the rest of the league if they want to have a chance at a title or playoffs. I actually love the idea of the playoffs but think this is going to hurt the NESCAC lower level teams. The only answer is recruiting and admissions have to get on same page which we all know is an up hill battle.

[Patrick Coleman]

NPI is very hard to measure for NESCAC teams without a single non-league game historically.

NPI is very easy to measure -- it just doesn't have as much correlation to a team's success if you aren't playing any non-conference games.

[CarollFan]

NPI is very hard to measure for NESCAC teams without a single non-league game historically.  I can't even imagine how, this year, it's remotely accurate (in terms of comparing Nescac teams to other leagues).  Starting next year, when there at least has been some post-season data, I imagine it will give a much better sense of relative strength. 

Heatbreaking post from Lynskey.  Really feel for him and Owen J.  When they were 100 percent both were so physically dominant. 

You may get a better sense of how Nescac teams compare based on playoffs but the NPI calculation doesn't use playoff data or historical data. It's strictly based on who you won and lost against in the current season and how they are doing in the current season.
The main components of NPI are:
1) Did you win or lose? 40 points for win, 0 points for a loss.
2) SOS = 60% of opponents NPI
3) Quality win bonus. If opponents NPI > 54 then QWB = (Opponents NPI - 54) * .25
4) Did you win at home or away? You sum up the 3 components above and for home wins you reduce the sum by 10% and for road wins you increase the sum by 10%.

For your final NPI calculation you sum up all your losses and at least your best 5 wins and divide by adjusted wins and losses. Could use more wins but I don't want to get into the weeds.😃

[Charlie]

NPI is very hard to measure for NESCAC teams without a single non-league game historically.  I can't even imagine how, this year, it's remotely accurate (in terms of comparing Nescac teams to other leagues).  Starting next year, when there at least has been some post-season data, I imagine it will give a much better sense of relative strength. 

Heatbreaking post from Lynskey.  Really feel for him and Owen J.  When they were 100 percent both were so physically dominant. 

You may get a better sense of how Nescac teams compare based on playoffs but the NPI calculation doesn't use playoff data or historical data. It's strictly based on who you won and lost against in the current season and how they are doing in the current season.
The main components of NPI are:
1) Did you win or lose? 40 points for win, 0 points for a lose.
2) SOS = 60% of opponents NPI
3) Quality win bonus. If opponents NPI > 54 then QWB = (Opponents NPI - 54) * .25
4) Did you win at home or away? You sum up the 3 components above and for home wins you reduce the sum by 10% and for road wins you increase the sum by 10%.

For your final NPI calculation you sum up all your losses and at least your best 5 wins and divide by adjusted wins and losses. Could use more wins but I don't want to get into the weeds.😃

I think the NESCAC team going into playoffs will do well. I think they should get by the east teams only real challenger would be Endicott and I am not sure they are as powerful as the top NESCAC team. The wall they will hit is when they play teams with larger roster limits and can hand pick players fro there playoff rosters. I think at some point down the road. The NESCAc is going to lift the roster limits or at the least enable teams to carry a certain number but only dress a certain number.