FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[CarollFan]

I would think in the early rounds of the playoffs the Nescac AQ would be playing East teams.

[MapleBBQChicken]

I think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

[Patrick Coleman]

I would think in the early rounds of the playoffs the Nescac AQ would be playing East teams.

They could be playing anyone within 500 miles in the early rounds.

[Nescacman]

I think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

Well said Maple, our fellow bourbon and cigar loving friend. As we all know, things can turn on a dime in this league. We'll take it one week at a time. And for the record, barring an upset or a surprise, this week should not be that interesting outside of the GOTW in the Coop.

[Brady12]

I think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

I still can't believe they played that super ugly game in Williamstown. The rain was coming down sideways.   

[Ephsfan1]

I think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

Completely agree. I like the Ephs this weekend to pull off the upset @ Trinity.

[Nescacman]

I think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

Completely agree. I like the Ephs this weekend to pull off the upset @ Trinity.

Care to put your money where your mouth is?

[Trin9-0]

I think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

I don't recall anyone saying we should cancel the rest of the season and just have Trinity and Wesleyan play for the title. We've all pretty much said what you said "Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far".

Of course upsets can happen. Trinity lost to Colby last year and Wesleyan has dropped a game to one of the Maine teams in each of the past four years. That doesn't change the fact that Trin and Wes are clearly at the top of the league this season. Most (all?) who've watched the games, as well as the computer ratings, see them leading the field by a wide margin.

Could Trinity lose to Williams this weekend, or at Tufts, or at Middlebury? Of course. Could Wesleyan drop yet another head-scratcher to a Maine school or a Little Three game? Absolutely. But it's disingenuous to pretend that they're not heavy favorites in every game they play until the regular season finale. Also, it's not just about the Bants and Cards; I think given how close teams 3-7 are even one upset loss by Trinity or Wesleyan would still put them a game clear of the rest of the pack once they start beating up on each other.

If we're not going to talk honestly about who the best teams are then what are we discussing here, the U.S. News rankings, great spots to eat in Clinton, NY? Kudos to Ephsfan1 for making a bold pick. Anyone else willing to agree?

[Brady12]

If we're not going to talk honestly about who the best teams are then what are we discussing here, the U.S. News rankings, great spots to eat in Clinton, NY? Kudos to Ephsfan1 for making a bold pick. Anyone else willing to agree?

Ephs will need a dominate game from defense to keep things close and low scoring.  Pound the ball, work the clock, and to keep them honest, occasionally over the top. If that happens Ephs 14-7. I refuse to think about the alternative.

[Bantamsdad69]

I think as a group we need to pump the brakes on the whole 'two horse race' conclusion. It is true that Wesleyan and Trinity have been the most impressive teams so far, but everyone who has ever watched NESCAC football knows that all it takes is one Saturday to completely shake up the narrative.

A couple examples from recent years in case we've forgotten how quickly things change...

Week 5, 2023
The 3-1 Middlebury Panthers travel to Hartford to face the 4-0 Chickens. To date, all of Midd's wins have come against teams with losing records, and their most recent result is a super ugly 12-10 win in Williamstown. Trinity, by contrast, has not yet played a close game and has scored with ease on everyone they've faced. Board veterans Lumber and Nescacman set the line at Bantams -17 and -14, respectively.
Midd wins 20-15 at the Coop, keeping the home team out of the end zone completely. They go on to win the NESCAC title.

Week 6, 2024
Middlebury is 4-1 coming off a big win over the Bantams and is traveling to Lewiston for what we all assume to be a much easier game. Wesleyan is also 4-1, having lost to Bates and just squeaked by Colby in OT. Boardsters who are not loyal to either team call Nescacman a homer for keeping the Cardinals at #1 in his power rankings, and praise for the Panthers' rapidly improving passing offense is abundant. The line is set at Midd -17.
Middlebury loses the game outright to Bates, and the Wesleyan squad that was nearly universally considered to be leaking oil wins out for the NESCAC title.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. My point is that we just don't know. And those were midseason misconceptions; we've only played two games this year. From my perspective, the league (and the autobid) are very much up for grabs beyond just Connecticut.

Completely agree. I like the Ephs this weekend to pull off the upset @ Trinity.

The path to winning for Williams is steep, don't see how they can beat Trinity if Trinity puts up 2+ scores.

[MapleBBQChicken]

If we're not going to talk honestly about who the best teams are then what are we discussing here, the U.S. News rankings, great spots to eat in Clinton, NY? Kudos to Ephsfan1 for making a bold pick. Anyone else willing to agree?

Okay, I'll bite. I wasn't trying to say that we can't comment on who is playing the best.

But just as you are welcome to state your opinion, I was simply adding mine. I disagreed with the many comments about a "clear" top 2 (see below). Yes, upsets could mean someone closes the gap, but I also think it's simply too early to say that there is a gap in the first place. Four teams are 2-0, and two of them are being pushed into a second tier.

Wesleyan and Trinity are a cut above, players, coaching, schemes.

I agree Trinity and Wesleyan are clear interchangeable 1/2

For further illustration of how the NESCAC appears to be a two-horse race after just two weeks

I watched Wesleyan over the weekend and clearly Trinity and Wesleyan are 1 & 2 in the league.

For my money, Trinity wins this weekend. But was a 20 point home win against Colby so much more impressive than Williams' 12 point win in Waterville? And how much credit do you get for beating the Lynskey-less Bobcats? I'm just not seeing where the collective confidence is coming from.

On a separate note, if bold predictions are what you want, how about OT in Vermont? I hope I'm wrong, but I think that one will be a very close game.

[Trin9-0]

For my money, Trinity wins this weekend. But was a 20 point home win against Colby so much more impressive than Williams' 12 point win in Waterville? And how much credit do you get for beating the Lynskey-less Bobcats? I'm just not seeing where the collective confidence is coming from.

On a separate note, if bold predictions are what you want, how about OT in Vermont? I hope I'm wrong, but I think that one will be a very close game.

Colby's first score against Trinity came on a play where the defender fell down in coverage. Sure, it still counts but it isn't exactly a strategy teams can count on replicating. Their second score came with 1:46 left in the game against Trin's 2nd/3rd string defense. The Bants rolled up 473 yards of offense and held Colby to 291 (75 of which came on the busted play). Trinity dominated the game start to finish.

Against Williams, Colby led into the 2nd quarter and it was a 6 point game with 1:56 left to play. The Ephs had just 54 more total yards than the Mules. Williams was the better team but those two games were vastly different contests.

Add in the fact that Williams has lost their best player and the game is being played in The Coop (where Trinity has only lost 6 times in the past quarter century) and I'd say that's likely where the collective confidence is coming from.

[MapleBBQChicken]

For my money, Trinity wins this weekend. But was a 20 point home win against Colby so much more impressive than Williams' 12 point win in Waterville? And how much credit do you get for beating the Lynskey-less Bobcats? I'm just not seeing where the collective confidence is coming from.

On a separate note, if bold predictions are what you want, how about OT in Vermont? I hope I'm wrong, but I think that one will be a very close game.

Colby's first score against Trinity came on a play where the defender fell down in coverage. Sure, it still counts but it isn't exactly a strategy teams can count on replicating. Their second score came with 1:46 left in the game against Trin's 2nd/3rd string defense. The Bants rolled up 473 yards of offense and held Colby to 291 (75 of which came on the busted play). Trinity dominated the game start to finish.

Against Williams, Colby led into the 2nd quarter and it was a 6 point game with 1:56 left to play. The Ephs had just 54 more total yards than the Mules. Williams was the better team but those two games were vastly different contests.

Add in the fact that Williams has lost their best player and the game is being played in The Coop (where Trinity has only lost 6 times in the past quarter century) and I'd say that's likely where the collective confidence is coming from.

Fair enough. I stand by my critique of the discourse (and I've had some supporters), but I at least respect the analysis in this post. To me the math adds up to a 7-10 point Trinity win, which in my opinion would not signify that the Bantams are a "cut above" or that the league is already a "two-horse race." If you beat 'em by 30, obviously that would have stronger implications, particularly if Wesleyan does the same and/or Amherst and Middlebury are in rock fights with the Maine schools. You can take your victory lap then.

Good luck this weekend; I've certainly been wrong before.

[Nescacman]

Not to tease our picks for the week, but FWIW, NESCACMAN has Hartford State giving 17 points...final score: Hartford State 34 Willams 17

[Trin9-0]

None of us are batting 1.000 and certainly we're all entitled to our opinions.

If you'd like to take point differential as the metric for determining which teams are a cut above; the average point differential per game for NESCAC champions since 2000 is +17.7. If Trinity wins Saturday by 7 then their average margin of victory so far this season would be +23.3.

The lowest point differential by a league champ was the 2013 Amherst squad at just +9.4 points per game. The highest was the 2004 Bantams at an eye-popping +32.3 points per game. However, to your earlier point the second best point differential was the 2023 Trinity team that lost at Middlebury. Those Panthers finished with an average point differential of just +12.9. Trinity was the far more dominant team that season... but not that day!

I guess what I'm saying is both things can be true... I do think Trinity and Wesleyan are a cut above this year. But also... any given Saturday! Good luck with those pesky Mules this weekend.