FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Nescacman]

As a newbie to understanding the NCAA playoff formula/format am I correct that they don't actually take into account what happens in the games?? For example:

• Wesleyan trailed Hamilton nearly the entire game yet ultimately won by four points after scoring with :14 left.
• Trinity led Hamilton 31-6 at halftime and coasted to a 37-6 win.

Yet, Wesleyan actually gets the higher net NPI score because their win over Hamilton was on the road? I find that to be astonishingly bad process even for an organization like the NCAA.

Spare me all of the "just win it on the field" rhetoric. Obviously, winning every game and getting the conference AQ bid guarantees you a spot in the field. I merely used this example to illustrate the absurdity of not factoring what happens on the field outside of win/loss, home/away.

Yes after a season using NPI you'll be able to see how these wins are calculated and you'll see multiple concerns people have brought up. There have been some changes recommended on different podcasts but last I heard is they currently are not planning any changes.

In their document describing NPI they mentioned they wanted to award road wins but by increasing the NPI for road wins by 10% and decreasing the NPI for home wins by 10% your going see some head scratching results when comparing the NPI generated for different games. Also people have recommended using more of your opponents NPI. Currently only 60% of the opponents NPI is used.

But a win is a win, how you got there doesn't matter, winning by 50 no different then winning by 1.

Having had some experience with NPI in other sports, what you don't want is a system where you encourage schools to run up the score unnecessarily to improve their NPI. I'm sure that was the rationale for how the NPI is currently calculated. Of course, there are ways to address this. For example, you could cap the margin of victory factor at say 10 or 14 points.

We're sure the NCAA "powers that be" could care less what the NESCAC smart asses think about their system anyway.

[SpringSt7]

This will not be a super popular take but I find it silly that there could be 2 or more NESCAC teams in the field in the first year of eligibility. Like, are Trinity and Wesleyan two of the best however many teams in the country? Yeah they probably are. They would probably both go in and acquit themselves perfectly fine and not embarass themselves. But it does seem a little crazy to me that a team from this league could play zero/0/not a single nonconference game, not win the league, and still make the postseason when we have no empirical data to support how the NESCAC would fare against the rest of the country.

[CarollFan]

This will not be a super popular take but I find it silly that there could be 2 or more NESCAC teams in the field in the first year of eligibility. Like, are Trinity and Wesleyan two of the best however many teams in the country? Yeah they probably are. They would probably both go in and acquit themselves perfectly fine and not embarass themselves. But it does seem a little crazy to me that a team from this league could play zero/0/not a single nonconference game, not win the league, and still make the postseason when we have no empirical data to support how the NESCAC would fare against the rest of the country.

As an outsider I'll just say one thing on this. Don't assume the teams in the playoffs are all the best in the country. Some conference winners would get absolutely destroyed by some teams that don't make the playoffs.

[SpringSt7]

I wrote "they would probably both go in and acquit themselves perfectly fine and not embarass themselves". Most of us know how the NCAA tournaments work, plenty of teams that don't make it would throttle some conferences winners. That is not what I'm saying

[Patrick Coleman]

This will not be a super popular take but I find it silly that there could be 2 or more NESCAC teams in the field in the first year of eligibility. Like, are Trinity and Wesleyan two of the best however many teams in the country? Yeah they probably are. They would probably both go in and acquit themselves perfectly fine and not embarass themselves. But it does seem a little crazy to me that a team from this league could play zero/0/not a single nonconference game, not win the league, and still make the postseason when we have no empirical data to support how the NESCAC would fare against the rest of the country.

As an outsider I'll just say one thing on this. Don't assume the teams in the playoffs are all the best in the country. Some conference winners would get absolutely destroyed by some teams that don't make the playoffs.

Most of these NESCAC fans follow other Division III sports and should be well aware of this already from 20-plus years of the current playoff system.

[CarollFan]

This will not be a super popular take but I find it silly that there could be 2 or more NESCAC teams in the field in the first year of eligibility. Like, are Trinity and Wesleyan two of the best however many teams in the country? Yeah they probably are. They would probably both go in and acquit themselves perfectly fine and not embarass themselves. But it does seem a little crazy to me that a team from this league could play zero/0/not a single nonconference game, not win the league, and still make the postseason when we have no empirical data to support how the NESCAC would fare against the rest of the country.

As an outsider I'll just say one thing on this. Don't assume the teams in the playoffs are all the best in the country. Some conference winners would get absolutely destroyed by some teams that don't make the playoffs.

Most of these NESCAC fans follow other Division III sports and should be well aware of this already from 20-plus years of the current playoff system.

I got it. I misunderstood, "2 of the best however many teams in country". I was just like hey those other teams in the playoffs are not all part of the best.

I understand what he saying about no empirical data too.

[Nescacman]

So breaking news out of Waterville...Coach Cosgrove is stepping down immediately. No word yet on a replacement. Obviously, we wish him and his family the best. Totally a class act.

More to follow.

[JEFFFAN]

The record is clear that the NESCAC acquits itself very, very well in both men's and women's sports at the NCAA playoff level.   Name a sport and the NESCAC has likely won a title, had several teams in the Final Four or Final Eight, or otherwise outperformed most other conferences.   However, I do not see that happening at the outset for football or maybe ever.   The numbers game plays against the NESCAC on a national level in a sport that requires so many bodies.   I am going to be fascinated to see how our teams do, however, and am excited that the powers-that-be saw fit to venture down the playoff road in football!

[lumbercat]

So breaking news out of Waterville...Coach Cosgrove is stepping down immediately. No word yet on a replacement. Obviously, we wish him and his family the best. Totally a class act.

More to follow.

Oh no, sad to see. Cosgrove was a friend and HS rival in the Ma class of '74. He'll put his family first as always--the same way he always treated his players. Let's hope for the best for Coach and his family.

[Nescacman]

So breaking news out of Waterville...Coach Cosgrove is stepping down immediately. No word yet on a replacement. Obviously, we wish him and his family the best. Totally a class act.

More to follow.

Oh no, sad to see. Cosgrove was a friend and HS rival in the Ma class of '74. He'll put his family first as always--the same way he always treated his players. Let's hope for the best for Coach and his family.

Agree completely Lumber. Wishing the best for Coach and his family.

[Scoops]

Truly unfortunate news. I had the pleasure to meet Coach during the recruiting process. He is a genuinely good man, and I was very appreciative of the way he treated us. I hope that it's not a serious issue. He's done a great job with his program.

On the subject of coach movement, has anybody gotten a confirmation on the issues surrounding Bowdoin HC Hammer? I've heard some fairly troubling chatter that I am not comfortable repeating until it's confirmed as the reason for his absence...

So breaking news out of Waterville...Coach Cosgrove is stepping down immediately. No word yet on a replacement. Obviously, we wish him and his family the best. Totally a class act.

More to follow.

[Nescacman]

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast

Available Now! Available wherever you get your podcasts!

9 Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast S.3 Ep.5 (Special Guests: Tufts University QB Nate Johnson and Amherst College Head Coach EJ Mills).

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast is the first podcast of its kind in NESCAC history. Hosted by Chris Grace (play-by-play announcer for Wesleyan) and Dave Bagatelle (Wesleyan Alum and former player), our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.

The podcast is available wherever you get your podcasts including YouTube, Facebook, Apple and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.

Thank you to our sponsors Sloane and Walsh, LLP, Gameday Sports, and Noank Village Boatyard.

If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

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Look for NESCACMAN's weekly predictions and point spreads at nescacfootballreport.com. The NESCAC Football report is a website dedicated to all things NESCAC football, including team previews, weekly game previews and power rankings and game recaps.  The site now provides its followers with NESCACMAN's weekly game lines and predicted scores.

[Nescacman]

2026 Week 5 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome NESCAC 2026 Week #5 "in the league where they pay to play".

Our NESCAC game of the week is in Middlebury, VT where the MID Panthers host the Williams Purple Cows.

We went 4-1 picking winners last week and stand at 18-2 on the year.

Let's get to this week's games...

Amherst College at Colby College: Amherst will try to keep their undefeated season going on the road in Waterville. Meanwhile, the Mules are looking for their first win. Surprisingly, Colby has won the last 5 times in this match-up. Amherst is third in the league in scoring. Colby has struggled to score with only 4 TDs on the year. The Colby offense is 9th in rushing and 8th in passing offense. They are on their 3rd QB of the year. They are last in total offense and 9th in total defense. Amherst is 3rd in total defense. Colby wins if: They need to figure out the QB situation and get the offense going. They will need to keep the game low scoring and close to have shot in this game. Amherst wins if: They avoid turnovers and control the clock. Amherst's defense will hold down the Mules and their offense will score just enough to get the win. Amherst stays undefeated as they head into the tougher part of their schedule.

Amherst 20 Colby 10
Point Spread: Amherst -7
Weather: A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 46F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph. Higher wind gusts possible.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Wesleyan University: Wesleyan hosts the Kitties in their homecoming game in Middletown. Wesleyan will look to avenge their loss at home 2 years ago. Wesleyan has won 18 of the last 19 games these teams have played and 38 of 43, historically. Wesleyan has only lost twice ever in Middletown to the Kitties. UBates has been shut out twice in 4 games this year, including, last week. The Kitties are 9th in total offense and 8th in total defense, including last in run defense. They are also last in point differential. Wesleyan is second in total offense and 4th in total defense. UBates wins if: They need to figure out a way to get their offense going. They have rushed the passer well so they will try to get to the passer and put some pressure on Wes QB Fitzsimons. Wesleyan wins if: The defense has another good game, they control the clock, they establish the run and they protect the ball. This is Wesleyan's homecoming game so we expect a large, raucous crowd in Middletown. We expect Wesleyan to win at home and run their record to 5-0.

Wesleyan 34 UBates 14
Point Spread: Wesleyan -17
Weather: Sun and a few passing clouds. High 51F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph.

Hamilton College at Bowdoin College: Not often you say this but interesting battle between two 0-4 teams. This game matches strength against strength. Hamilton's offense is 3rd in the NESCAC in total offense while Bowdoin's defense is 5th in the NESCAC. The question is can Hamilton's last ranked defense step up against a Bowdoin offense that has only scored two offensive TDs all year. QB Luke Kurzum leads the Hamilton offense and is second in the NESCAC in passing. DL Angus Leary anchors the Bowdoin defense and leads the NESCAC in TFL and is second in sacks. Bowdoin wins if: They (finally) run the ball effectively chewing up the clock and keeping the ball away from the Hamilton offense. Hamilton wins if: Luke Kurzum plays the type of game we know he can play and the Hamilton defense (finally) steps up. We think Hamilton's offense is the best unit in Brunswick and comes away with the mild upset for their first win. Congratulations to new Bowdoin "Team Coordinators" Kyle McAllister and Nick Turchyn. Best of luck in your new roles.

Hamilton 28 Bowdoin 24
Point Spread: Bowdoin -3
Weather: Periods of rain. High 57F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near a half an inch. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

Hartford State at Tufts University: Hartford State is on a roll. In running their record to 4-0, they have not won a game by less than 20 points this year. Meanwhile, Tufts has had to come from behind in 2 of their 3 wins. Ellis Oval is a tough place for opposing teams to play so Tufts has that. The Jumbo's feature this week's NESCAC reigning OPOTW Nate Johnson. They hope to get RB Christian Shapiro back after missing last week's game, although his replacement played well. The Tufts defense has struggled (7th in the NESCAC) and will have to play much better to keep them in the game against Hartford State. Hartford State is #1 in the NESCAC in both total offense and total defense. In fact, the Bants are #1 in the country in total defense. Hartford State wins if: The contain new Jumbo signal caller Nate Johnson and exploit the Tufts defense. Tufts wins if: They will need to play their best game of the year at home to stay in this game and pull off the first major upset on the year in the NESCAC. The Jumbo defense will need to play much better against the Bants to keep them in the game. We think Hartford State has too much offense for the Tufts defense to hold down. Not a blow-out but a resounding Hartford State win.

Hartford State 35 Tufts 14
Point Spread:  Hartford State -21
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Periods of rain. High 66F. Winds S at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Williams College at Middlebury College: Very interesting NESCAC game of the week. Essentially an elimination game in Vermont. MID is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Amherst losing on a blocked FG in the waning seconds. Meanwhile, the Ephs rebounded from their crushing defeat at the hands of Hartford State by beating up on the Kitties in Williamstown. Williams made the QB change last week going with lefty FY Drew Weiler. He had more passing yards last week than Williams had all year in the three previous games. Although these teams appear to be evenly matched, MID's defense has been susceptible to the pass. Fortunately for them, Williams only has one passing TD in their first 4 games this year. MID wins if: The MID defense can contain the new Williams signal caller. Establish the run with Connor McClelland leading the way to set-up the pass. Williams wins if: Weiler has another big day. Tough not to make MID the favorite at home. We think they win a close game.

Middlebury 23 Williams 20
Point Spread: Middlebury -3
Weather: Rain. High 59F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall around a half an inch. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

Good luck to all the student-athletes and coaches this Saturday!

NESCACMAN's Career Picks:
2026 Season: 18-2 (.900 winning percentage)
2025 Season: 32-13
2024 Season: 38-7
2023 Season: 31-14
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0 (COVID)
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 411-129 (.761 winning percentage, 13 seasons)

**********
Follow NESCACMAN on X: @realnescacman

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Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast

Available Now! Available wherever you get your podcasts!

9 Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast S.3 Ep.5 (Special Guests: Tufts University QB Nate Johnson and Amherst College Head Coach EJ Mills).

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast is the first podcast of its kind in NESCAC history. Hosted by Chris Grace (play-by-play announcer for Wesleyan) and Dave Bagatelle (Wesleyan Alum and former player), our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.

The podcast is available wherever you get your podcasts including YouTube, Facebook, Apple and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.

Thank you to our sponsors Sloane and Walsh, LLP, Gameday Sports, and Noank Village Boatyard.

If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

Follow us on X (aka Twitter): @nineweeksnescac
Follow us on Instagram: @nineweeksnescac
Facebook: Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast (https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1EbgGxDZRd/)
YouTube: 9 Weeks Nescac (https://www.youtube.com/@nineweeksnescac)
Spotify Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac
Apple Podcasts: 9 Weeks Nescac

Look for NESCACMAN's weekly predictions and point spreads at nescacfootballreport.com. The NESCAC Football report is a website dedicated to all things NESCAC football, including team previews, weekly game previews and power rankings and game recaps.  The site now provides its followers with NESCACMAN's weekly game lines and predicted scores.

[jmh21]

With all that rain forecasted up in Vermont, I wonder if the Williams/Midd game ends up looking anything like the 2023 version. That was one of the most absurd football games I've ever watched. I would definitely take the under!

[Brady12]

With all that rain forecasted up in Vermont, I wonder if the Williams/Midd game ends up looking anything like the 2023 version. That was one of the most absurd football games I've ever watched. I would definitely take the under!

That game should have been bumped up or pushed back. Absolutely miserable conditions.  Couldn't see anything and couldn't even enjoy my beer with cup filling up so quickly.