FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Gray Fox]

There are no good ways to break a three-way tie in football when everyone has one loss and has split with the other two.

"Rose Bowl Rule" eventually.

[Patrick Coleman]

And that's only reasonable if you feel like fairness is a criterion.

It'll be a few years before the Rose Bowl Rule would work for the NESCAC, since what it means is that the team that won the tournament or went to the playoffs most recently drops out of the tie.

[Trin9-0]

True; there's no good way to break a round robin three-way tie but I still contend the best way is point differential in the games played between the three teams.

Pat, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on the likelihood of a 2 loss NESCAC team ever qualifying for an at-large bid.

[Patrick Coleman]

True; there's no good way to break a round robin three-way tie but I still contend the best way is point differential in the games played between the three teams.

Pat, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on the likelihood of a 2 loss NESCAC team ever qualifying for an at-large bid.

It seems unlikely that a 7-2 team with no non-conference games is going to qualify for an at-large bid unless more bids become available.

If there's a non-conference game and a NESCAC team has a big non-conference win and is 8-2, then I'd say there's as good a possibility as for any other conference.

[Nescacman]

2026 Week 7 NESCACMAN Picks

Welcome NESCAC 2026 Week #7 "in the league where they pay to play".

Our NESCAC game of the week is in Medford, MA where the Tufts Jumbo's host the undefeated Amherst Lord Mammoths.

We went 3-2 picking winners last week and stand at 25-5 on the year.

Let's get to this week's games...

Wesleyan University at Bowdoin College: Both teams are coming off disappointing week 6 losses. Both teams had a shot at wins, one of which would not have been a surprise, the other would have been one of the biggest surprises in recent memory in the NESCAC and snap a long losing streak. Wesleyan lost at Amherst after leading for 3 ½ quarters. This was a game they could have easily won (and probably should have won). The silver lining for Wes is that their season is far from over. They will need a bit of help as far as Amherst is concerned but they completely control their own destiny with Hartford State. Wesleyan will be very motivated coming into Brunswick. Bowdoin's defense has been very good this year. Their offense, not so much. Bowdoin's offensive issues have been well chronicled only scoring 3 offensive TDs in 6 games. Wesleyan's offensive line will need to play better against a stout Bowdoin front seven. Bowdoin's pass defense has been solid, primarily because of the pressure they put on the passer. Wesleyan wins if: They convert on their opportunities. Something they did earlier in the year. They give QB Fitzsimons some time to look down field against the high-pressure Polars defense. Bowdoin wins if: If the defense plays like they did against Hartford State, they have a chance. Wesleyan's offense is a bit more diverse so they may have their hands full. Bowdoin, like Amherst last week, will need to score 20 points or more to have a shot. We think a motivated Wesleyan squad plays one of their better games at Bowdoin (a suprisingly difficult place to win, for some reason...poisonous pine trees perhaps?!?) in recent years and comes away with the win.

Wesleyan 21 Bowdoin 7
Point Spread: Wesleyan -10
Weather (courtesy of The Weather Channel): Sunny. Cooler. High near 50F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Hamilton College at Williams College: Hamilton is on a two-game winning streak and travels to Williams to face a team coming off a disappointing loss at home to Tufts. This game is interesting to us. Hamilton's offense has played very well (3rd in the NESCAC in scoring and total defense) while their defense hasn't played as well (last in the NESCSAC in total defense). Meanwhile, Williams defense has been very solid (2nd in the NESCAC in total defense). The Williams offense has been up and down. Tough to figure it out. Not sure if they are a running team (behind RB Jack Fabiano, back from injury) or a passing offense (being FY QB Drew Weiler, WR Zach Falls and WR Owen McHugh). Last week, Fabiano returned from injury and the running game excelled while the passing game struggled. Hamilton wins if: QB Luke Kurzum has his typical efficient, error free game and the Hamilton defense continues to improve (21 points allowed over the last 2 weeks). Williams wins if: They slow down the game, play ball control with their running game, and don't put the FY QB in a position where he has the win the game on his own. We think this game will be closer than most people expect but we don't think Williams will lose two games in a row at home. Can Williams pass defense slow down the Hamilton pass offense? We would not at all be surprised if the Conts upset the Ephs here but we think Williams keeps their slim hopes of a NESCAC championship alive with the win at home.

Williams 28 Hamilton 21
Point Spread: Williams -7
Weather: Partly cloudy skies. Cooler. High around 50F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Hartford State College at Middlebury College: This series has been incredibly close in recent years with MID and Hartford State splitting the last 4 games. MID is a notoriously hard place for away teams to play. The Bants defense has played at an exceptionally high-level, particularly the front 7 (they lead the NESCAC in total defense and are 2nd in the country in total defense). Meanwhile, the offense has struggled a bit the last couple of weeks. MID's pass defense has struggled (9th in the NESCSAC) so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Big question is who will be at QB for MID. Starter Aiden Moss appeared to get injured during last week's game. If he plays, we give MID a chance. If not, will be a tough one for the Pants. Last week, WR Nolan O'Brien sat out for Hartford State. Hartford State wins if: The offense eliminates their mistakes and gets back to business. Defense shuts down the MID offense no matter who is at QB.  Middlebury wins if: Aiden Moss plays. The secondary steps up against the struggling Hartford State passing game. They generate some offense against the tough Bantam D. Despite recent history, we think the Bantams come away with the win and set-up an epic week #8 battle for first place in the NESCAC against the Lord Mammoths.

Hartford State 24 Middlebury 10
Point Spread: Hartford State -14
Weather: Sunshine and clouds mixed. Cooler. High 48F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.

University of Bates (Lewiston Campus) at Colby College (7:00 PM): Battle of the winless in Round 1 of the 2026 version of the C-B-B. Night game in Waterville, Maine on Halloween eve. Who makes this schedule? UBates wins if: They need to cut down on mistakes which seem to derail them every week. Colby wins if: The offense continues to improve. They need to get Jack Nye as much as possible.

Colby 14 UBates 10
Point Spread: Colby -7
Weather: Clear skies. Low 29F. Winds light and variable.

NESCAC Game of the Week

Amherst College at Tufts University: Both teams are coming off two impressive wins last week. Amherst defeated previously unbeaten Wesleyan at home on homecoming. Meanwhile, Tufts went on the road and beat Williams.

Why Tufts has a real shot in this game:
•   Home game at Ellis Oval: Coming off a comeback 24-21 win at Williams where Tufts scored the final 10 points and won on a 37-yard field goal with 32 seconds left.
•   Turnover defense: Tufts leads the NESCAC with 8 interceptions. Against Hill, who has thrown 6 INTs, that matters.
•   Red zone: Tufts has scored on 18 of 19 red-zone trips, with 15 TDs. If it gets there, it finishes.
•   History: Tufts has won 2 of the last 3 meetings, including a home win in 2024, its first home win over Amherst since 2007.

Why Tufts is still the underdog:
•   Tufts is 4-2, averaging 20.7 points per game while allowing 25.5. That's a negative point differential for a 4-2 team.
•   Its two losses were blowouts to the two best teams it's played: Wesleyan 42-7 and  Hartford State 28-9.
•   Its offense averages just 283 yards per game, 6th in the NESCAC, and 148.5 passing yards per game.
•   The matchup is brutal: Tufts runs for 134.5 yards per game, but Amherst allows 49.8 rushing yards per game. If Tufts can't run, it must throw into a defense that just sacked Wesleyan's QB six times.

RB Christian Shapiro returned last week for Tufts and played well. Tufts offense and defense are both middle of the road this year in the NESCAC. Amherst wins if: The defense continues to play at a high level and they keep the game close. Tufts wins if: Christian Shapiro has a big game and they continue to get WR Matt Rios involved. Tufts' path to a win is: force 2+ turnovers, win the field-position game, and steal it late like it did at Williams. That's plausible, not probable. This will be a close game and we think Amherst pulls out another 4th quarter comeback setting up an epic battle against Hartford State in Week #8.

Amherst 21 Tufts 17
Point Spread:  Amherst -3
Weather: Mainly sunny. Cooler. High 52F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Good luck to all the student-athletes and coaches this Saturday!

NESCACMAN's Track Record:
2026 Season: 25-5 (.833 winning percentage, through 6 weeks)
2025 Season: 32-13
2024 Season: 38-7
2023 Season: 31-14
2022 Season: 31-14
2021 Season: 33-12
2020 Season: 0-0 (COVID)
2019 Season: 33-12
2018 Season: 36-9
2017 Season: 35-10
2016 Season: 32-8
2015 Season: 30-10
2014 Season: 30-10
2013 Season: 32-8
Career: 418-132 (.760 winning percentage, 13 seasons)

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Follow NESCACMAN on X: @realnescacman

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Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast

Available Now! Available wherever you get your podcasts!

9 Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast S.3 Ep.7 (Special Guests: Amherst College DL Jackson Duncan, and Trinity College Head Coach Jeff Devanney).

Nine Weeks: A NESCAC Football Podcast is the first podcast of its kind in NESCAC history. Hosted by Chris Grace (play-by-play announcer for Wesleyan) and Dave Bagatelle (Wesleyan Alum and former player), our weekly show features coach and player interviews, game analysis, rankings, previews, and predictions.

The podcast is available wherever you get your podcasts including YouTube, Facebook, Apple and Spotify. Search for "9 Weeks NESCAC"...the first and only podcast of its kind.
 
Thank you to our sponsors Sloane and Walsh, LLP, Gameday Sports, and Noank Village Boatyard.
 
If you have questions, feedback, ideas or are a player or a coach and would like to appear on our show, please email us at: 9weeksnescac@gmail.com

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Look for NESCACMAN's weekly predictions and point spreads at nescacfootballreport.com. The NESCAC Football report is a website dedicated to all things NESCAC football, including team previews, weekly game previews and power rankings and game recaps.  The site now provides its followers with NESCACMAN's weekly game lines and predicted scores.

[MapleBBQChicken]

Middlebury vs Trinity under Coach Mandigo:

20-15 W at the coop
24-21 W at home
28-26 L at the coop

I'll believe a 14 point loss when I see it. Bad day to be a dirty chicken (or whatever a Bantam is).

[Nescacguymaine]

Spooky Saturday Upset brewing in Brunswick?

[nescac1]

The delta between "Jack Fabiano run" and pretty much any other offensive play for Williams is massive at this point.  What a player he is (and credit has to go the o-line too, which has done a good job opening holes for him the last two weeks).  But everything else is a struggle right now, with yet another QB injury and a passing game that hasn't been good (other than Weiler's first two games) no matter who the QB has been. 

The Ephs really tried to give this game away with some very strange coaching decisions and some shaky plays.  But the D did just enough to sort-of contain Hamilton at times, and Fabiano, who is the best FY TB NESCAC has seen in a long time, did the rest. 

Amherst-Trinity seems likely to be for all the marbles next weekend and with Trinity suddenly looking a bit vulnerable, and if O'Brien is out, and Amherst having a team-of-destiny sort of feel with all these close wins, I think anything can happen in that one, even though Trinity is overall the more talented team if at 100 percent.

Williams-Wesleyan is also a huge game but you know Wes is gonna sell out to stop Fabiano, so the Ephs will need to do a much better job in the passing game, and the Ephs' have struggled all year with speedy receivers which is something Wesleyan certainly has ... Williams will need the pass rush to be massive in that game to stand a chance defensively. 

[Nescacman]

Spooky Saturday Upset brewing in Brunswick?

Yeah, sure...