FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference

[Trin9-0]

There's even a scenario in which Trinity could earn one of the top 8 seeds which would give them a first round bye.

There are 24 teams which get a first-round bye! The Top 8 is crucial because it means that the committee cannot force them to face another Top 8 before the quarterfinals -- it overrides the geographic proximity focus of the bracket.

Thanks Pat. Amended original post... the playoffs are still new around here, haha!

[The #802]

Did Kurzum get injured in the Hamilton V Middlebury game? The box score indicates that Laverty played the entire second half at QB.

That kid has had a heck of a season.

[Nescacman]

It was a 4-1 weekend for SP+, which is now 34-6 on the year. Their escape at Amherst dinged Trinity's advanced computer ratings, yet it skyrocketed their NPI. The Bants are now a near a lock for an NCAA playoff bid regardless of this weekend's results, although it goes without saying Trinity faithful would much prefer the undefeated NESCAC season, outright conference championship, and the automatic bid. Congrats to Trinity on claiming at least a share of this year's league title; it's their fourth in the last five years and a record 20th time they've finished with the best record in the conference. There's even a scenario in which Trinity could earn one of the top 8 seeds which would give them a first round bye and prevent the committee from forcing them to face another Top 8 team before the quarterfinals.

Amherst and Wesleyan are both extremely likely make the playoff field with respective victories on Saturday, which would also earn them a conference championship. It would be Wesleyan's 3rd in a row; the last team to 3-peat in the NESCAC was Trinity from 2016-'18. It would be Amherst's first title since their own 3-peat from 2013-'15. I wonder if there will be some type of press release this week regarding the potential for a random draw to decide the automatic bid. I haven't seen anything that outlines how/where/when the process would actually take place. For what it's worth, any Wesleyan victory on Saturday would have given the Cards the automatic bid using my preferred 3-way round robin tie-breaking scenario of point differential in games played between championship teams. I am surprised the SP+ still views the Mammoths as a tier below Wesleyan and Trinity despite beating the former and outplaying the latter.

	SP+	Hansen	NPI
Trinity	33	41	12
Wesleyan	40	60	37
Amherst	99	71	32
Middlebury	106	85	131
Williams	109	89	105
Tufts	125	96	96
Hamilton	155	103	188
Colby	176	133	212
Bowdoin	180	135	238
Bates	198	142	220

Watching the Trinity-Amherst game the biggest issue for the Bants was getting the Mammoth offense off the field. Trinity's vaunted defense bent, and bent, and bent; allowing ELEVEN third and fourth down conversions (many of them on very long distances). Amherst converted on all of the following downs:

3rd and 11
3rd and 6
3rd and 2
3rd and 12
4th and 8
3rd and 6
3rd and 3
4th and 15
3rd and 8
3rd and 10
3rd and 1

A similar result will simply not be good enough against Wesleyan who has a better passer with better weapons. On the bright side for Trinity their run defense was exceptionally good allowing just 49 yards on 32 carries (1.5 yards per rush). Wes should provide a bit more of a challenge but this game will be decided on Trinity's ability to pressure Fitzsimons and the Bantam secondary not letting the dangerous Cardinal receiving corps get behind them. Wesleyan has allowed the most sacks in the NESCAC (24) and Trinity's defense is tied for the most sacks (21).

I think if Trin can limit the number of explosive plays and tackle well in the secondary they'll need around 17 points to win. The problem with that is their offense has been shaky for weeks. It was great seeing Nolan O'Brien and Pat McCaffrey back in action but the Bants only managed 69 rushing yards against Amherst. They'll face a similarly stingy rush defense on Saturday and the Cards passing defense is even better.

What a finale of a weekend we have in the NESCAC... BOTH computer models project the Ephs over Amherst which would force a 3-Way Little Three title, cost the Mammoths their shot at a share of the NESCAC title and a berth in the NCAA playoffs! The computers also both like the Polar Bears to get their first win of the season over the Mules and force a 3-Way CBB. All of these projections are by very slim margins but I didn't see either one of those coming. Speaking of slim margins, we have a split projections between the Panthers and Jumbos with Hansen projecting the closes margin possible in favor of the Tufts at Home. As for the main event the computers predictably like the Bantams in The Coop. I think the game will be MUCH closer than either projection and wouldn't be surprised to see Nescacman call this a pick 'em. My heart tells me the Bants can pull it off, especially at home, but my eyes tell me that Wes matches-up well against Trin.

Either way it will be a historic day in Hartford for the 125th Trinity-Wesleyan game. The Bantams lead the all-time series 67-56-1 but Wes has won the last two meetings. The Cardinals haven't won three in a row against Trinity since 1975-1977! An ominous sign for Trin heading into the quasquicentennial game... Wesleyan has won every one of their prior milestone meetings:

1st game - 60-0 in 1885
25th game - 3-0 in 1914
50th game - 7-0 in 1932
75th game - 14-11 in 1975
100th game - 37-13 in 2000

Here's how the computers project Week 9 in the NESCAC:

Amherst 16.7 @ Williams 17.5- SP+
Amherst 15.5 @ Williams 15.8 - Hansen

Bates 15.2 @ Hamilton 27 - SP+
Bates 17.3 @ Hamilton 30 - Hansen

Colby 11.8 @ Bowdoin 13.3 - SP+
Colby 5.3 @ Bowdoin 7.1 - Hansen

Middlebury 21.4 @ Tufts 18.7 - SP+
Middlebury 21.7 @ Tufts 21.8 - Hansen

Wesleyan 16.1 @ Trinity 23.5 - SP+
Wesleyan 16.3 @ Trinity 22.7 - Hansen

We have to say, we're a bit surprised by some of these picks/spreads:

Amherst/Williams: We understand that it is a home game for the Ephs and the Lord Mammoths are on the road, but, as Hs7-2 said, the LMs frankly dominated the Bants statistically and the Ephs are actually starting their 4th string QB who is coming off a less than inspiring performance having thrown 4 picks against his other major rival. Yes, we're obviously big Ephs fans this weekend (first for everything) but both models have Williams giving points to the LMs?!? We don't think so.

Bowdoin/Colby: First off, SP+ model, how is the most anemic offense in the history of the NESCAC going to score 13 points? We'll take the under. We've seen both teams play, and this might be a very low-scoring game, but hard to make an 0-8 team without their head coach favorites in a rivalry game.

Hartford State/Wesleyan: We agree that the Bants should propbably be favored in the Coop but by a TD. Don't think so.

Of course, we're giving the Board some good fodder for when Williams wins the game (which we want), Bowdoin scores 3 TDs (including their first rushing TD of the year) and beats the Mules, and Hartford State wins by 3 TDs, but we'll take that chance.

We're not giving our pics and spreads yet but we think you know what direction we are going. BTW, we're ahead of the computer right now, FWIW.

NM

[Nescacman]

Did Kurzum get injured in the Hamilton V Middlebury game? The box score indicates that Laverty played the entire second half at QB.

That kid has had a heck of a season.

Yes, in the 2nd quarter. Otherwise, the rocking chair may have been headed to Clinton for the first time in 30 years.

[Nescacman]

Highlights from the Wes/Williams game Saturday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oenCk8Y-qs

NM

[Trin9-0]

We have to say, we're a bit surprised by some of these picks/spreads:

Amherst/Williams: We understand that it is a home game for the Ephs and the Lord Mammoths are on the road, but, as Hs7-2 said, the LMs frankly dominated the Bants statistically and the Ephs are actually starting their 4th string QB who is coming off a less than inspiring performance having thrown 4 picks against his other major rival. Yes, we're obviously big Ephs fans this weekend (first for everything) but both models have Williams giving points to the LMs?!? We don't think so.

Bowdoin/Colby: First off, SP+ model, how is the most anemic offense in the history of the NESCAC going to score 13 points? We'll take the under. We've seen both teams play, and this might be a very low-scoring game, but hard to make an 0-8 team without their head coach favorites in a rivalry game.

Hartford State/Wesleyan: We agree that the Bants should propbably be favored in the Coop but by a TD. Don't think so.

Of course, we're giving the Board some good fodder for when Williams wins the game (which we want), Bowdoin scores 3 TDs (including their first rushing TD of the year) and beats the Mules, and Hartford State wins by 3 TDs, but we'll take that chance.

We're not giving our pics and spreads yet but we think you know what direction we are going. BTW, we're ahead of the computer right now, FWIW.

NM

Seems like it's worth reposting this brief explainer of the SP+ rating model:

Ranking is probably the wrong word when looking at SP+ because it's just a listing of the model's overall rating score. Here's a more in-depth overview of the SP+ model. Basically, it's designed to track overall team efficiency against the opponents they do play rather than predict how they would fare against teams they don't play.

The five main data points are efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. There's much more that goes into it and no one is saying it's perfect but I'm continually impressed with the overall accuracy of the projections.

SP+ is just taking data points and spitting out numbers based on an algorithm. It doesn't even factor where the game is being played (although the Hansen model does account for home field advantage). It doesn't account for other factors such as injuries to key players, weather, etc. Given all of that it's pretty impressive that it's consistently as good, or better, than our resident NESCAC prognosticator. Nescacman, you are actually tied with SP+ at an identical 34-6 with five games left to pick. Sounds like there will be significant differences in your picks so it should be fun to see if you can outsmart the computer.

For what it's worth, I agree that both Amherst and Colby should be favored and the Trin-Wes score projection seems high in favor of the Bants... but what do I know?

[Trin9-0]

For what it's worth, any Wesleyan victory on Saturday would have given the Cards the automatic bid using my preferred 3-way round robin tie-breaking scenario of point differential in games played between championship teams.

I botched this... if Wesleyan and Amherst were to win on Saturday, the Cards would need to win by at least 10 points to overcome Amherst's +3 point differential against the other co-champs. Anything less would give Amherst the tiebreaker. Not that it matters since they would be pulling names out of a hat if we end up with a 3-way tie.

[Trin9-0]

This Saturday is arguably the biggest Trinity-Wesleyan game ever played.
It's only the seventh time in the 124 year history of the rivalry that Trinity and Wesleyan enter the final game with 1 or fewer combined losses:

Year  Wesleyan    Trinity    Result 2016 6-1 7-0 Trinity Wins 45-21 1993 6-1 7-0 Trinity Wins 32-8 1948 7-0 5-1 Wesleyan Wins 16-0 1947 6-0 6-0 Wesleyan Wins 13-0 1946 6-0 4-1 Wesleyan Wins 21-14 1915 6-1 4-0-2 Trinity Wins 9-0 The strongest argument for a bigger game is the 1947 contest which is the only time they've played the final game of their seasons while both squads were undefeated. Trinity, just two years removed from not fielding a team from 1943-1945 due to World War II, was an offensive powerhouse averaging nearly 32 points per game heading into the finale in Hartford. Wesleyan on the other hand was a defensive monster and finished the year allowing a total of just 28 points in 7 games. The Cardinals (or the Methodists, as they were called then) would defeat Trinity 13-0. It was the third of four straight undefeated seasons for Wes. With a win on Saturday, Trinity would complete the 15th undefeated season in school history, secure the outright NESCAC title, earn the conference's first ever automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs which would likely also come with a first round bye, and eliminate Wesleyan from playoff contention. A victory by Wes would earn them at least a share of the NESCAC title. They would (almost certainly) qualify for an at-large playoff bid or have a 1 in 3 shot at the league's automatic bid if their name is drawn from a hat. They could also win the league title outright if Williams defeats Amherst. Any Wesleyan title would be their third league championship in a row. VERY high stakes in The Coop.

[MapleBBQChicken]

I say it every year, but the way I see it, there are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Middlebury keeps the rocking chair.

I know I'm in a small minority that cared about that game, so in the interest of staying relevant I'll throw out some predictions for this week (with unhelpful commentary attached).

First for the consolation games:

• Colby beats Bowdoin to win the CBB (I think that trophy was made for years like this, where Maine currently sits at 0-20 against the field)
• Hamilton beats Bates, but the Bobcats hang tough for a while (As a footnote, Clinton, NY, is decidedly not in New England. What a brutal bus ride that one is for the Maine crew.)
• Middlebury beats Tufts to finish above .500 (I'm definitely not biased here, don't worry about it)

And then for the games everyone will be watching:

• Both games are close, but Amherst wins in Williamstown and Wesleyan wins in the Coop

This outcome would of course set up the dreaded random selection for the autobid. For what it's worth (not much), I do prefer the random draw as a tiebreaking method over an arbitrary statistic or something points-related that could potentially impact in-game decision making. My only request is that it's livestreamed. I'm thinking something along the lines of that scene in Friday Night Lights where the three coaches each flip a coin at a truck stop. I'm sure there's some place off I-91 that's convenient enough for all involved.

Looking forward to an eventful final week of the regular season.