FB: New Jersey Athletic Conference

[CNU85]

Finally!!

Good luck to the Profs this year! will be driving on Oct 4th so I will be listening in the car.

Heading to Canada and Vermont for a week away and then the CNU game @ Castleton.

 

[HansenRatings]

Just posted on Twitter: 2025 Conference Preview

(right click and open in new tab for better resolution)

[CNU85]

Thanks for the Hansen ratings info.

Looks like it will be a tight race at the top. Interestingly, I see that the data has CNU with a higher Returning Production, higher Post Season Probability, and is favored by 1 point vs SU. Yet, the data has SU winning the game and the title.

Not that I disagree or think anything is skewed. Just curious what the data shows.

Cheers!

[HansenRatings]

Thanks for the Hansen ratings info.

Looks like it will be a tight race at the top. Interestingly, I see that the data has CNU with a higher Returning Production, higher Post Season Probability, and is favored by 1 point vs SU. Yet, the data has SU winning the game and the title.

Not that I disagree or think anything is skewed. Just curious what the data shows.

Cheers!

Here's what's happening:
Salisbury is projected to be slightly better than CNU. It's close enough that HFA makes CNU a slight favorite in their matchup (but it's basically a coin toss). In the ~51% of simulations where CNU wins that game, there are still instances where Salisbury gets the AQ because they're a slightly larger favorite in the remainder of their conference games than CNU is. In th ~49% of simulations where Salisbury wins the head-to-head, there are fewer instances of CNU still getting the AQ, again because Salisbury is a bigger favorite than CNU in the remaining conference games.

[CNU85]

Thanks for the explanation. I'm a numbers freak, so I love looking at this and analyzing stuff.

[CNU85]

Gotta love it when you look at the 10 day forecast on weather.com (which is actually today plus 14 days - I never could figure that out), and the last day listed is only 3 days before kickoff!

[RowanPhan]

Gotta love it when you look at the 10 day forecast on weather.com (which is actually today plus 14 days - I never could figure that out), and the last day listed is only 3 days before kickoff!

For me, Game-day is around the corner when I see the Sept 6 date on the milk gallons in the grocery store

[CNU85]

For me, Game-day is around the corner when I see the Sept 6 date on the milk gallons in the grocery store

  

[RowanPhan]

https://njacsports.com/news/2025/8/29/salisbury-tabbed-first-in-njac-football-preseason-coaches-poll.aspx

2025 NJAC FOOTBALL PRESEASON POLL
(first place votes in parentheses)

1. Salisbury (6)
2. Christopher Newport (1)
3. Rowan (1) (dark horse)
4. TCNJ
5. Montclair State
6. Kean
7. William Paterson
8. Vermont State-Castleton

[CNU85]

CNU wins 38-7. Senior WR Colin Hart stats 7-199 4TDs. I think this guy has All-American potential.

Jr QB Connor Barry 14-17 271 yds 5 TDs.

Defense held Trine to 7 yds rushing. 166 total yds.

CNU offense 193 rushing and 281 in the air. Total 474. 7.8 yds per play

Good way to start 25th year of football. CNU wins 150th game.  Now 150-92 62%.

[RowanPhan]

Anticlimactic start for the Profs in week one.  The game went into weather delays due to thunderstorms in the area. Rowan was leading 17-14 late in the 3rd, very close game but Rowan was gaining momentum after a 90+yard fumble return TD and then a blocked Punt.
Fingers crossed for better weather next weekend 

[MRMIKESMITH]

Really feel bad for Rowan, I felt that they were on their way to winning the game. Some good wins by the rest of the NJAC, like how Kean got revenged against Morrisville State, a team that appeared to be on the rise. Salisbury started off the season very similar to what they did in the previous year. The offense looks as advertised and still has areas to be improved. Defensively, the settled late in the 2nd and in the game. They played a bend don't break approach. However, just like the offense, there are somethings that need to be improved upon. It was good game and Salisbury ran (air raided) away with it at the end of the day. With it being the first game and this year non-conference a much less daunting than last year, I expect Salisbury offensively to get back to 300+ rushing the next couple weeks. I'd love to see some shutouts defensively and better coverage on 3rd and long in the problem areas of the scheme. Also, would love for better 3rd down offense.

[ADL70]

Really feel bad for Rowan, I felt that they were on their way to winning.

Seriously, subtract the 75 yd TD  pass on the second play of the game and their offense was ineffective, averaging only 2yds per rush. Their two 3rd quarter drives were 3 plays, 2 yds and 3 plays -11.The second "drive" started from the CWRU 5 and only yielded a FG. Meanwhile CWRU was averaging 5.1 yds per rush.BTW, if any Rowan folks have any influence with the live stream, the announcers talked through the band playing the national anthem, not good.

[RowanPhan]

Really feel bad for Rowan, I felt that they were on their way to winning.

Seriously, subtract the 75 yd TD  pass on the second play of the game and their offense was ineffective, averaging only 2yds per rush. Their two 3rd quarter drives were 3 plays, 2 yds and 3 plays -11.The second "drive" started from the CWRU 5 and only yielded a FG. Meanwhile CWRU was averaging 5.1 yds per rush.BTW, if any Rowan folks have any influence with the live stream, the announcers talked through the band playing the national anthem, not good.

Were you watching on the live stream? Maybe difficult to tell how rough the conditions were. I was in the stands, it was a very windy/wet afternoon. I would add Rowan's top WR didn't play which made room for 2 freshman to play, one dropped a wide-open pass on 3rd down that would have been a long gain. On the short "drive", the QB dropped the ball likely due to the wet conditions and the TE target was wide open.
Plenty of room for improvement on the offensive side.
Wishing CWRU all the best the remainder of the season.

[unionpalooza]

I saw on Twitter that the NCAA has recorded the Rowan CWRU game as a tie.  How is that possible, can two teams just mutually agree to invent their own result?