FB: New Jersey Athletic Conference

[CNU85]

Finally!!

Good luck to the Profs this year! will be driving on Oct 4th so I will be listening in the car.

Heading to Canada and Vermont for a week away and then the CNU game @ Castleton.

 

[HansenRatings]

Just posted on Twitter: 2025 Conference Preview

(right click and open in new tab for better resolution)

[CNU85]

Thanks for the Hansen ratings info.

Looks like it will be a tight race at the top. Interestingly, I see that the data has CNU with a higher Returning Production, higher Post Season Probability, and is favored by 1 point vs SU. Yet, the data has SU winning the game and the title.

Not that I disagree or think anything is skewed. Just curious what the data shows.

Cheers!

[HansenRatings]

Thanks for the Hansen ratings info.

Looks like it will be a tight race at the top. Interestingly, I see that the data has CNU with a higher Returning Production, higher Post Season Probability, and is favored by 1 point vs SU. Yet, the data has SU winning the game and the title.

Not that I disagree or think anything is skewed. Just curious what the data shows.

Cheers!

Here's what's happening:
Salisbury is projected to be slightly better than CNU. It's close enough that HFA makes CNU a slight favorite in their matchup (but it's basically a coin toss). In the ~51% of simulations where CNU wins that game, there are still instances where Salisbury gets the AQ because they're a slightly larger favorite in the remainder of their conference games than CNU is. In th ~49% of simulations where Salisbury wins the head-to-head, there are fewer instances of CNU still getting the AQ, again because Salisbury is a bigger favorite than CNU in the remaining conference games.