FB: New Jersey Athletic Conference

[CNU85]

Finally!!

Good luck to the Profs this year! will be driving on Oct 4th so I will be listening in the car.

Heading to Canada and Vermont for a week away and then the CNU game @ Castleton.

 

[HansenRatings]

Just posted on Twitter: 2025 Conference Preview

(right click and open in new tab for better resolution)

[CNU85]

Thanks for the Hansen ratings info.

Looks like it will be a tight race at the top. Interestingly, I see that the data has CNU with a higher Returning Production, higher Post Season Probability, and is favored by 1 point vs SU. Yet, the data has SU winning the game and the title.

Not that I disagree or think anything is skewed. Just curious what the data shows.

Cheers!

[HansenRatings]

Thanks for the Hansen ratings info.

Looks like it will be a tight race at the top. Interestingly, I see that the data has CNU with a higher Returning Production, higher Post Season Probability, and is favored by 1 point vs SU. Yet, the data has SU winning the game and the title.

Not that I disagree or think anything is skewed. Just curious what the data shows.

Cheers!

Here's what's happening:
Salisbury is projected to be slightly better than CNU. It's close enough that HFA makes CNU a slight favorite in their matchup (but it's basically a coin toss). In the ~51% of simulations where CNU wins that game, there are still instances where Salisbury gets the AQ because they're a slightly larger favorite in the remainder of their conference games than CNU is. In th ~49% of simulations where Salisbury wins the head-to-head, there are fewer instances of CNU still getting the AQ, again because Salisbury is a bigger favorite than CNU in the remaining conference games.

[CNU85]

Thanks for the explanation. I'm a numbers freak, so I love looking at this and analyzing stuff.

[CNU85]

Gotta love it when you look at the 10 day forecast on weather.com (which is actually today plus 14 days - I never could figure that out), and the last day listed is only 3 days before kickoff!

[RowanPhan]

Gotta love it when you look at the 10 day forecast on weather.com (which is actually today plus 14 days - I never could figure that out), and the last day listed is only 3 days before kickoff!

For me, Game-day is around the corner when I see the Sept 6 date on the milk gallons in the grocery store

[CNU85]

For me, Game-day is around the corner when I see the Sept 6 date on the milk gallons in the grocery store

  

[RowanPhan]

https://njacsports.com/news/2025/8/29/salisbury-tabbed-first-in-njac-football-preseason-coaches-poll.aspx

2025 NJAC FOOTBALL PRESEASON POLL
(first place votes in parentheses)

1. Salisbury (6)
2. Christopher Newport (1)
3. Rowan (1) (dark horse)
4. TCNJ
5. Montclair State
6. Kean
7. William Paterson
8. Vermont State-Castleton