MBB: St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[hopefan]

So, I've put the numbers hat on.....this is the most fun time of the year, particularly with the SLIAC having so much parity.... Who can make the top 4?  Here are some thoughts...

There are 15 games left in conference, each team has 3 games left...
Iowa Wesleyan not eligible for conference tourney, only Prin and Fontbonne have been eliminated

of the 15 games, one doesn't impact chances for tourney.. Prin vs Fontbonne
while I know the coaches would gripe, I'm considering 4 games to be locks, and am viewing them that way in potential standings...Eureka over Fontbonne, Greenville over Prin, Mac over Fontbonne, and Westminster over Prin....   If any of those games go the other way (and yes, they could), it throws the following projections right out.. If those assumptions hold, then...

1) Mac and Greenville are locks for the tourney
2) Westmin is NOT yet a lock, if they were to lose twice even if they beat Prin
3) If Eureka were to win out, they could still finish 4th given proper Feasible win and losses by others
4) If Spalding were to win out, they could still finish 4th given proper Feasible win and losses by others
5) If Webster were to win out, they could still finish 4th given proper Feasible win and losses by others
6) If Blackburn were to win out, they could still finish 4th given proper Feasible win and losses by others
7) There are combinations of wins and losses that could generate a 3 way tie for fourth at 10-8 between Webster, Spalding, and Blackburn
8) There are combinations that could generate a 4 way tie at 9-9 between Webster, Spalding, Blackburn and Eureka

Things will still be foggy after Saturday's results, and while there are possibilities for anyone even at 9 losses, it's very unlikely... So Westmin, Webster, Eureka, BC, and Spalding all desparately need wins on Saturday to keep good position going into the final week.... and of course Greenville and Mac want to win to enhance their opportunity to host the conference tourney....

Next post... a look at Saturday's games....

[hopefan]

So what do we have on Saturday?

Let's get the easy ones out of the way first....
Greenville at Prin... Greenville should win by a bunch...
Fontbonne at Eureka... If Ben Kissing is playing, Fontbonne could make this one interesting.. but despite Fontbonne's strength at guard, with the long trip, the local crowd, Eureka playing to keep a conference playoff spot alive... I expect a Eureka win...

then the toughies....
Blackburn at IWC... Preparation.. if BC is prepared, they can win this game... man for man, BC can play these guys.. but can they step off the bus, maintain focus and motivation and play to the level necessary.. I'd love to see it, NOTHING against IWU***, but let's keep as many teams in the conference race as possible.  Note, this is not a must win for BC.. they could lose, win their last 2, finish 10-8, and with proper wins and losses elsewhere, be in 4th alone... but there would be a lot of dependence on other results....

Spalding at Mac... in all seriousness, I expect to see a Mac win here... but if Spalding big men Trisko and Terez Smith can hold the Long Johnson duo down (ooooh, that could get me banned), this could be a very interesting game... Brandon Goeing/James Turner could do some significant damage if they get hot....root for Spalding...Note, this is not a must win for Spalding.. they could lose, win their last 2, finish 10-8, and with proper wins and losses elsewhere, be in 4th alone... but there would be a lot of dependence on other results....  Mac and Greenville are tied, and they split games... Mac wants to win for that Tourney Host role....

Webster at Westmin...  both teams lost badly on Wednesday, unexpectedly... Both have so much to play for... this is the game I'll see... I expect a tight game, with the winning score in the 60's....I beat up Webster enough after their loss to Mac... compared to Westmin, I think Webster has the better individual talent... but do they have the better team?   Not a must win for either team, but the loser will sure have the pressure on them in the final week.....

[WUPHF]

Are you headed to Fulton or Jacksonville?

[hopefan]

Are you headed to Fulton or Jacksonville?

WUH... you must read more carefully... .. specifically the Webster-Westmin writeup...

[hopefan]

Well, the old hopefan is pretty happy with yesterday's results...

Webster wins at Westminster, 70-62.... Webster jumped off to a quick lead in the first half, again buoyed by early 3's from Xavier Dortch off the bench, and Westminster played the rest of the day from behind... cut it to 5 at one point, but never any closer... Hunter Ward had one of his best games of the year, taking the ball to the hole STRONGLY, getting shots at the rim, some short jumpers, some beautiful assists...Despite only 70 points, Gorlocks have 4 starters plus Dortch off the bench all in double figures.  Westmin just couldn't find open shots against the zone.. but Romo Tabb had VERY impressive strength around the basket.. scarey thought for rest of the league is that he reminds me of Deavis Johnson.. he could be that good over time...

Elsewhere
Greenville beats Prin 115-93... first unit shoots well from 3 (10-20) but the rest of the gang couldn't hit the Mississippi River (6-31) from 3, and that keeps the score down.. Parker Davidson licked his lips and had a phenomenal day against the system, 33 points, 16 rebounds, 7 assists...  GC led the whole way..

Mac holds off Spalding 72-65, a critical win in their drive for a 1st place finish in the conference... Spalding was up by 8 early in the 2nd half, but play by play shows guards Lance Buhlig and Mike Cameron led the charge to the win in the last 10 minutes... Spalding wins the battle of the boards, hold Johnson and Long to 33 points, but live by the 3, die by the 3.. they go 10 for 30, and that's 20 posssessions of missed shots.. Terez Smith does nothing in 21 minutes, I thought he could be a difference maker, but not against Deavis....

Blackburn wins their biggest game in 11 years, beating IWC 85-78.  BC has super balance in scoring, all 5 starters in double figures between 13 and 17 points... looks like Willie Orange, whose raw talent I admired last year, has finally adjusted his game to the college level, leads the way with 17.. the kid is a tremendous leaper... IWU*** led the game throughout the 1st half, but BC took the lead for good with 10 minutes left in the game.. What is happening to Chris Fowler?  IWU showed good balance, but Fowler has to play well for them to win this type of game, and for him to have 2 points, 3 boards, 4 assists is unimagineable to me.. hurt?  IWU is in freefall, losing 6 of 9... hoping they haven't lost a USCAA bid....

Eureka beats Fontbonne, 86-68... another monster night from Shea Feehan, 34 points, 4-5 from 3's, throw in 7 boards... Nice for Coach Chip Wilde to give good guy seniors Mike Sain and Jacob Warner the start and some minutes...Especially sweet for Sain, whose dad was a star at Eureka some 30 years ago....Fontbonne played tough and had the game tied with 10 minutes left, but Eureka just crushed them in the last 10...just not a go to guy with Ben Kissing out....

so 7 still alive for the four spots... Mac and GC will battle for the host spot, Westmin has lost their edge for 3rd and will dog fight it with Blackburn, Webster, Eureka, and Spalding for 3rd and 4th.... AND, while I made an assumption about Prin's role, keep your eye on Saturday's Westmin-Prin game... it could be the stunner of the year were Prin able to pull the upset....

[y_jack_lok]

Was looking at some stats on NCAA.com. Greenville is in the top 5 in D3 in the following categories:

Scoring Offense -- #1
Assists Per Game -- #1
Steals Per Game == #1
Turnover Margin -- #1
3 Pt Field Goals Per Game -- #2

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings?sport_code=MBB&division=3

[hopefan]

Was looking at some stats on NCAA.com. Greenville is in the top 5 in D3 in the following categories:

Scoring Offense -- #1
Assists Per Game -- #1
Steals Per Game == #1
Turnover Margin -- #1
3 Pt Field Goals Per Game -- #2

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings?sport_code=MBB&division=3

The fact that GC is 'only' number 2 in 3 pt FG per game doesn't surprise me... from the little I've seen of Grinnell over the years, I think of them being much quicker to launch the 3 point shot than Greenville.. GC has several scorers who do little or no 3 point shooting.. notably Jamal Daniels, Michael Hohm and Andrew Scott... others, Shane Smith, DeAndre Brown, Kenny Green are just as likely to go to the basket as to shoot the 3...

[hopefan]

And so, it's time for the hopefan player of the week!!!!

Looking over the week's activity, it came down to 3 players... Parker Davidson  Prin, Shea Feehan  EC, and Deavis Johnson  Mac....
Had to eliminate Davidson as his team was beaten badly twice, and the huge numbers he rolled up in one game was against the system... still, a great week in what has been a very tough year for Prin..

That brought it to Shea Feehan or Deavis Johnson... Both had one great game, Feehan getting 34 vs Fontbonne, Johnson 23 and 17 boards vs Webster... in their 2nd games, both had very good games, but not unbelievably great... This weeks winner (the first repeat winner) of the hopefan Player of the Week is Deavis Johnson , Mac, as he achieved in 2 extremely competitive games and had to do what he did for his team to get the wins, whereas Feehan's performances came in games that basically turned lopsided... Gotta go with what I consider the more meaningful performance.. I know ECred, very debateable

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It might be a holiday for those romantically inclined, but it is also getting down to the end of the Division III basketball season. Just two weeks remain between now and the end of the regular season and nothing has been determined.

On Sunday night's Hoopsville, Dave McHugh will talk to some teams who have emerged from no where to be in a position to surprise when their conference tournaments begin. McHugh also talks to a few teams who can't seem to be knocked off their conference pedestal, but still feel they have something to prove. And the hectic schedule of conference travel can take it's toll.

Sunday's show start at 7:00 pm ET and promises to go well into overtime. You can watch the show here: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2015-16/feb14

Guests included (in order of appearance):
- Tara Macciocco, Marywood women's coach
- Dr. George Barber, Greenville men's coach
- Ruth Sinn, No. 8 St. Thomas women's coach (WBCA Center Court)
- Rusty Eggen, Northeast Region Report, WPI Sports Information Director
- Angela Santa Fe, Regis (Mass.) women's coach
- Andy Partee, Colorado College men's coach

You can also tune into the podcast(s) after the show has aired:
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville
iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/hoopsville/id1059517087

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com/user/d3hoopsville

And a reminder the Hoopsville Fundraising Project is halfway to the deadline but we are not that close to the goal. Please consider helping us cover Division III basketball the way it deserves to be covered: http://igg.me/at/hoopsville-fundraiser/x/6029509.

Thanks!

[hopefan]

Readers.. note in Dave McHugh's memo that George Barber (Greenville Coach) is being interviewed on Hoopsville tonight, likely near 6:15 Central...

[WUPHF]

Good call, Dave.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Seriously... one of the best interviews I have had in awhile. Loved my conversation with Coach/Dr. Barber.

[hopefan]

Seriously... one of the best interviews I have had in awhile. Loved my conversation with Coach/Dr. Barber.

Great interview, great image for the SLIAC!!!!

[hopefan]

Here is a view of the conference standings and what repercussions Wednesday's games have... tiebreaker situations are just too messy to talk about... Perhaps after Wesnesday's results are in, things may clear up a bit....

PC-FU on Tuesday.... Meaningless to Conference tourney, but huge for Prin....

bc-ec
ec wins, they're still alive to at least be in a tiebreaker at 10-8 if they also beat Greenville on Saturday
ec loses, they're out
BC wins, they're still alive for tiebreakers at 11-7 or 10-8, dependent on Saturday vs Spalding. At 11-7, they could be locked inwithout tiebreaker dependent on other results
BC loses, still alive for tiebreakers if they beat Spalding on Saturday.  Out if they also lost on Saturday

IWU***-GC
IWU*** ineligible
GC is 'seemingly' locked into tournament, although there is a scenario where five teams could  finish 11-7 and someone would be out.
GC needs to win to keep pace with Mac for 1st place and Tourney host.
GC loss, they would need Mac loss to remain tied for 1st

Mac-WC
Mac is 'seemingly' locked into tournament, although there is a scenario where five teams could  finish 11-7 and someone would be out.
Mac needs to win to keep pace with GC for 1st place and Tourney host.
Mac loss, they would need GC loss to remain tied for 1st
WC wins with assumed win over Prin on Saturday, they're at least in tiebreaker for tourney spot if BC and WU also finish with 11 wins. They would be in if either BC or WU loses.
WC loses, with assumed win over Prin, they'll likely be in tiebreaker for tourney spot at 10-8.

WU-SU
SU wins, they're still alive to at least be in a tiebreaker at 10-8 if they also beat BC on Saturday
SU loses, they're out.
WU wins, they're still alive for tiebreakers at 11-7 or 10-8, dependent on Saturday vs IWU***. At 11-7, they could be locked in without tiebreaker dependent on other results
WU loses, still alive for tiebreakers if they beat IWU*** on Saturday.  Out if they also lost on Saturday

for tiebreaker purposes, these results already established:
MAC  swept  Blackburn, Prin.....split with Greenville, Webster, Eureka, Spalding, IWU***....Westmin(W) and at Font(W) left
GC swept Blackburn, Prin, Font.... Lost 2 to Webster... split with Mac, Westmin, Spalding....have IWU***(W), EC(W) left
WC  swept Spalding...split with GC, IWU***, Font, EC, BC, WU...have at Mac(L) and PC(W) left
WU  swept GC, EC, Prin....Lost 2 to BC...split with Font, Mac, WC....have Spalding (L), IWU***(L) left
BC  swept WU, Font, Prin....Lost 2 to Mac, GC...split with WC, IWU***....have EC (L), at Spalding(W) left
EC  swept Prin....Lost 2 to WU...split with Spalding, Mac, WC, IWU***, Font....have at BC (W), GC(L) left
Spalding  swept Prin....Lost 2 to WC...split with EC, Font, GC, IWU***, Mac....have at WU (W), BC(L) left

This was a lot of work, enjoy it readers....

[BunchTime]

Good work, hopefan.  Been reading the board as usual and following along with all the action...just haven't been to a game in a while so I haven't posted much.  Always enjoy reading your posts though.

Love this time of the year.  Man, talk about a lot of "what ifs" still in play.  Hoping my Gorloks can string together two good games to ensure itself of a spot in the conference tourney.  Who knows though, as they are such an enigma, as hopefan has said previously.  You'd think with so much at stake they'll be ready to play.  We shall see.  I should be there for both games.