MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

rmc1982 · February 18, 2026, 02:58:23 PM

D3 Datacast has us with a 95% chance of winning and the line is 18.5 points! I know Crenshaw is worth 5-10 points usually but i dunno about that many! They predict the score will be 75-57....WOW

Tigerfan · February 18, 2026, 03:19:11 PM

Are you giving 18.5 points & how much are you willing to wager?

Tigerfan · February 18, 2026, 03:27:36 PM

I was amused by D3 Datacast's Game Scores for the RMC and H-SC games. Game Score is defined as: "Game score is an approximation of the game's 'excitement factor' given (1) the quality of the two teams, (2) how close the game is projected to be, and (3) the game's overall impact on NCAA tournament odds."

RMC v VWU leads all D3 games tonight by a wide margin: 28.4
H-SC v Randolph: -14.1

CNU85 · February 18, 2026, 03:50:11 PM

Quote from: rmc1982 on February 18, 2026, 02:58:23 PMD3 Datacast has us with a 95% chance of winning and the line is 18.5 points! I know Crenshaw is worth 5-10 points usually but i dunno about that many! They predict the score will be 75-57....WOW

MAassey has it 74-60. I think a 12-15 point win is about right.

rmc1982 · February 18, 2026, 03:58:11 PM

Quote from: Tigerfan on February 18, 2026, 03:19:11 PMAre you giving 18.5 points & how much are you willing to wager?

Oh I'm DEFINITELY not agreeing with D3Datacast! I think they're CRAZY! Like I said before, Crenshaw is good for 5-10 points on a GOOD NIGHT but remember this is a 5pm start which means some working Alums can't come, the baseball/ softball / lacrosse kids are still at or just getting over practice,and some other students are gonna have to either go to the game and miss dinner or go out after or to the cafe..... lots of bad variables that could affect attendance because of the start time! Less students means LESS CRENSHAW CRAZIES! I think 1- 15 points is reasonable....: 18.5 is RIDICULOUS!

Patrick Coleman · February 18, 2026, 05:52:58 PM

Nine points at the half.

y_jack_lok · February 18, 2026, 07:34:46 PM

Quote from: CNU85 on February 18, 2026, 03:50:11 PM
Quote from: rmc1982 on February 18, 2026, 02:58:23 PMD3 Datacast has us with a 95% chance of winning and the line is 18.5 points! I know Crenshaw is worth 5-10 points usually but i dunno about that many! They predict the score will be 75-57....WOW

MAassey has it 74-60. I think a 12-15 point win is about right.

I never would have thought the computers would have the game so lopsided. I'd have predicted a single digit win, at best, for RMC. It turned out to be a 10 point margin, 68-58, though it could have been more were it not for a couple of late RMC miscues -- fouling on a Marlins missed three-point attempt. All three FTs were good. Then not scoring on the next possession and giving up a three-pointer. That trimmed a 14 point lead to eight and gave the Marlins hope with 37 seconds left. But RMC managed to hang on.

y_jack_lok · February 18, 2026, 09:05:50 PM

Guilford wins at Averett to lock up an ODAC tourney spot.

Tigerfan · February 18, 2026, 10:21:26 PM

A mere 10 point win? If you guys just venmo me $20 each, that ought to cover any wagers.

No real mystery now for the 8th spot, although it is possible for GC to get to 7 if Averett slides back to 8. The real excitement is with the coveted 4th seed and its quarterfinal home game. H-SC, W&L and LU are all tied at 9-6 with H-SC at home vs W&L and LU hosting VWU on Saturday. The Tigers are extremely banged up with Tugg Bizzelle and Shane Fernald joining Santana Lynch (in a walking boot) on the sidelines tonight. Its almost like watching a completely different H-SC team now with guys who seldom played now stepping into rotation minutes. However, it is a fun team to watch because those "new" players are so fired up to be on the court and the students really get behind them.

hasanova · February 18, 2026, 10:30:00 PM

Quote from: rmc1982 on February 13, 2026, 09:16:43 AM
Quote from: hasanova on February 12, 2026, 01:14:03 PMHuge road win for the Quakers last night. In a 12-team conference where only the top 8 make the tournament, even #8 is still a pretty good team. Raise your hand if you want your team to play Guilford in the first round.
HASA!! Good to see you back on here pal! Have missed your insightful posts!

Thanks, rmc1982, life has kept me rather busy. I'll try to check in more.

hasanova · February 18, 2026, 10:39:04 PM

Quote from: y_jack_lok on February 18, 2026, 09:05:50 PMGuilford wins at Averett to lock up an ODAC tourney spot.

I attended this game in Danville ... it's a relatively short drive from Greensboro.

This ODAC tilt was rather chippy at times... and perhaps closer than the final 92-79 score would appear. I can see how AU tripped up some top tier conference foes this season.

But for the love of God, why do the official scorers and the refs allow David Doino to sit on top of the scorer's table the whole game? The table even has an 18" crack where he sits. Please buy (or lease) another chair!

hasanova · February 18, 2026, 11:13:27 PM

If Guilford and Averett both win on Feb. 21, they'll be 8-8. Since GC won both H2H games, GC 7th and AU 8th. Same if they both lose - they'll finish 7-9, but, again, GC has the H2H tie-breaker. If GC wins and AU loses, then the Quakers would be 7th at 8-8 and AU 8th at 7-9.

Of the 4 possibilities on Feb. 21, the only one that favors AU is a Cougars win (8-8) and a Quakers loss (7-9). A game vs RMC or VWU is in the balance (is Roanoke still in the running for 1 or 2 spot?).

Seatfiller · February 19, 2026, 08:35:07 AM

Quote from: hasanova on February 18, 2026, 11:13:27 PMIf Guilford and Averett both win on Feb. 21, they'll be 8-8. Since GC won both H2H games, GC 7th and AU 8th. Same if they both lose - they'll finish 7-9, but, again, GC has the H2H tie-breaker. If GC wins and AU loses, then the Quakers would be 7th at 8-8 and AU 8th at 7-9.

Of the 4 possibilities on Feb. 21, the only one that favors AU is a Cougars win (8-8) and a Quakers loss (7-9). A game vs RMC or VWU is in the balance (is Roanoke still in the running for 1 or 2 spot?).

There's no way we could get 1st but 2nd place could be in reach, though that's not likely. We need Virginia Weselayn to lose at Lynchburg Saturday and for us to beat Randolph. I haven't been able to get on here that much lately, but man Roanoke is not looking good. I have very little faith in us going far in the ODAC tourney we are VERY INCONSISTENT.

Yesterday we barely beat Lynchburg in OT but we can't pull away from most teams and our free throw shooting has been bad. If we don't get it straight before the ODAC tourney it will be a quick tourney for us. With the loses to Washington and Lee (twice), Guilford, I really believe we have no shot at a at large bid. Here's hoping RC gets it together and demolishes Randolph Saturday.

rmc1982 · February 19, 2026, 09:37:45 AM

#1 Team Montclair St, got beat by TCNJ.....which means now WE will have the bullseye on our back as long as we win at Bridgewater Saturday night. Don't like to be in this position....everybody gunning for us....Oh well....Could be worse!

Tigerfan · February 19, 2026, 09:50:05 AM

With Lynchburg playing well, at home, and fighting for the 4 seed, I think they have an excellent chance to knock off VWU and put the Maroons into the #2 slot.

It looks like the ODAC will be an NCAA 2 bid league at best, with a reasonable chance at only 1 if RMC takes the ODAC title. The D3 Datacast simulations indicate that VWU and Noke must get to the finals to have a decent chance, not a lock, at an at-large bid. A loss in the semis makes the probability low. From the "So You're Saying There's A Chance" Department, D3 Datacast says there is a 1.1% probability that H-SC gets the automatic bid.