MBB: NESCAC

[D3BBALL]

Agree with all of the above on Trinity and their bench. The 2nd unit besides Berry and McDonald is not the same or as experienced. Berry started off shooting terribly, I think like 0-16 from 3, but has since been better like 3-10. And Berry was hurt the beginning of the year, missed 2 games and might need time to get his scoring touch and legs going. Shooters get into slumps; they need him to come out of it.

McDonald is the one they need back as he is the bridge between the starters and the bench. McDonald gives them versatility at all the positions and the one Cosgrove trusts at the end of the games with the starters.

Agree on Ayles he has been terrific all year. Their top 7 is as good or better than any in the country and certainly tops in the NESCAC.

The bench lacks the outside scoring like last year with Macarchuk gone, which may be the biggest difference along with playing experience. I would say that yes, their 2nd unit is not as good as the last 2 years, but it is not bad. I bet right up there with others in the NESCAC. Just the last 2 years the 2nd unit was just so good and probably better than half the first units in the NESCAC. When/if McDonald comes back that should help that unit.

When they played against St Joes and their 4-point win. Lazarre and Okorougo both played 30 minutes, Vetter was in foul trouble and played 25, Ayles played 27. Besides McDonald and Berry the other 3 bench players only played like 4 minutes in the 2nd half. Cosgrove will give the 2nd unit some leeway in first half of NESCAC games, but in the 2nd half, if close, he is going to ride the starters along with Berry and McDonald. The experience these 7 have had winning, and winning close games, the last 3 years would be pretty hard to top.

[D3BBALL]

Anyone want to join me in first week picks?
Friday Night
Bates 77 - Amherst 60
Tufts 73 - Bowdoin 65
Conn 77 - Colby 72
Williams 66 - Wesleyan 64
Trinity 81 - Midd 69

Saturday
Wesleyan 67 - Midd 64
Trinity 72 - Williams 55
Bowdoin 73 - Conn 70
Tufts 78 - Colby 74

Sunday
Bates 75 - Hamilton 55

I'm in, but I was terrible at this last year, Jumbo was really good lol   need to get him involved.

Bates 65 at Amherst 55
Tufts 69 at Bowdoin 72
Conn 65 at Colby 78
At Williams 59 Wesleyan 56
Trinity 89 at Midd 69

Saturday
Wesleyan 80 at Midd 77
Trinity 78 at Williams 61
Bowdoin 59 Home Conn 64
Tufts 73 at Colby 65

Sunday
Bates 85 at Hamilton 65

[NEhoops]

I'm most intrigued by the Bow/Col/Con matchups.

One of those teams has the potential for an at-large bid.

The Wes/Wil game on Fri should be a good one. Wes won (in CT) 65-54 in their first matchup in early Dec. They will be hungry coming of the uninspiring showing at Amh. 

Wil will be hosting this time (and vs Tri on Sat) and is riding a four-game win streak.

Every league win is huge, especially on the road.   

[nescac1]

Following up on SpringSt7's point about Trinity's turnover ratio, I looked up a few national stats:

Trinity is first nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (Bates at 14 and Tufts at 16, which has been key to their success).  Trinity is also first nationally, by a wide margin, in turnover ratio at 13.3 per game (Grinnell playing its weird system is second-best at 10.3) and ninth nationally in turnovers forced per game.  Trinity is also second nationally in FG percentage defense - just an insane combination to be able to force so many turnovers through intense ball pressure AND hold teams to such a low shooting percentage; usually a risk-taking defense will give up a good number of easy shots.    Unsurprisingly given all that, Trinity is first nationally in ppg allowed by a wide margin.  To beat Trinity, NESCAC teams will have to keep the turnover margin much closer to even. 

Some other NESCAC stats of note - Tufts, let by Bernstein and Gyimesi up front, is 7th in blocks per game.  Trinity is 15th, and Bowdoin, surprisingly, is 19th. 

Speaking of field goal percentage defense, the eye test does not lie for Amherst, which is first nationally, even ahead of Trinity, in field goal percentage defense at an astounding 33.8 percent. And they've done that without an elite rim protector inside; all their guys stick like glue on opposing ball-handlers and few shots seem to be wide-open.  It helps of course that Amherst has played a terrible schedule, but they showed against Wesleyan that they can lock a good team down.  Williams is not too far behind at 8th nationally in that department.

Bates is first nationally in rebound margin per game despite mostly playing a lineup that isn't huge.  Pouye is a monster in the paint, O'Leary and Sparks rebound extremely well for their size, and Mayen is a major force on the offensive glass in his limited minutes off the bench.  NESCAC teams generally rebound it very well, with 6 teams in the top 35 nationally in rebounding margin - none of them Trinity (which is mere 47th )!

NESCAC teams generally fair well in ppg allowed - in addition to Trinity first, Amherst is 3rd, and Williams 11th.   

Where do we see almost no NESCAC teams?  In any of the team leaders in any offensive category.  Three point shooting continues to be particularly rough - no NESCAC team is ranked in the top 50 nationally in three point percentage (the 50th ranked team is at 36.36 percent).  The NESCAC team three point percentages range from Bates at a solid .356 down to Hamilton at at brutal 28 percent.  Wesleyan is also really struggling to hit outside shots, sitting at 31 percent.  Trinity is the best (surprise) in the league at a solid 29th nationally in overall field goal percentage. 


So, the pattern we've seen in recent years seems to be the same this year - this is a defense-first league featuring a slew of nationally-elite defenses, led by Trinity's best defense in the nation, where a lot of teams really struggle to shoot the deep ball, and we can expect, starting with this weekend, a heck of a lot of low-scoring defensive grinds in league play.