MBB: NESCAC

[jmh21]

Great win for the Ephs today to finish the season strong. Seems like them and Amherst are pretty much a guarantee to split every year at this point

[nescac1]

Cuevas put up 50 over two games this weekend on great shooting against some of the best perimeter defenders in the country in Cameron and the various dudes Trinity can throw at a guard.  He has to be a scorer because no one else on his team is a reliable creator. I guess we will see what the coaches say but to me it's either him or Okorougo for POTY and no one else has a shot.  Either one would be a great choice. Cuevas will be a deserved all-American either way and I think D1 coaches will have the final word on his quality as a player this off-season (not saying he will leave - but if he wants to the options will be there). 

Awesome to see Williams close out with a convincing win over Amherst. This was a very rough season for the Ephs but at least they ended on a high note playing by FAR their best hoops of the season to end the year, and hopefully will carry this momentum into the off-season and a return to form next year.  Today was a credit to the seniors who played their asses off.  Dickens had I'd say the best game of his career, playing very well on both ends and hitting two huge triples (one a bank shot as the shot clock wound down - each team got one of those!).  Chibuogwu was everywhere on defense and was massive on the boards and pushing the pace.  McGraw got a bucket off a pretty cut despite very limited mobility, he really could have been a nice player for the Ephs with better fortune.  Hansen was the Ephs' best player on offense and ended his stellar career in style.  Cooley hit a few big shots as well.  As a unit they sparked the team to a big start to the second half with super intense play, and Williams controlled the game from there on out.

Matt Devine continued his strong late-season surge with three big triples and a highlight-reel dunk, he looks ready to be a quality starter at the two as as senior.  Yates and Rein both had solid two-way games as well.  But today was about an exhibition of heart for a senior class that has seen a ton of adversity.

Tough loss for Amherst but tough to beat a rival twice in one year, even when you are the better team (something Williams has learned a few times in recent years).  I think Amherst is still likely safe for the NCAA tourney with their high NPI, but if they lose next weekend, they will certainly have to sweat it out.  Neville was great today and certainly has my vote for ROTY (although there are loads of good options to pick from this season, Dawkins and Robinson especially, GREAT rookie class in NESCAC).  Garraud is a massive pest on defense and Chin is rock-solid and always brings it vs. Williams.  Chin and Neville are so physical and hard to keep out of the lane.  That three-guard rotation should be one of the best in the country next year, and despite their youth is already very tough to deal with.  Nate Pabis also had a strong game and has to be one of the most improved players in the league - moving to the 4, like for Hammond, really suited his game, I expect him to be a solid starter for Amherst next season. Amherst could not get the 3's to drop today but credit to the Eph D which ran through all of the zillion screens Amherst likes to set like their life depended on it.  Seven big blocks for the Ephs and a number of those game on jump shots, they contested like crazy. Best defensive play of the game was Belcher blocking what seemed like an easy transition layup for Neville, Belcher is as good a small guard I've seen in NESCAC at blocking shots.  Would have loved to have seen this level of play on both ends from the Ephs a few weeks ago, but better late than never!

Good luck to the rest of NESCAC in the NESCAC and NCAA tourney.  Trinity, Tufts and Wesleyan are locks for the NCAA already and Trinity at least is a lock to host in round one.  Amherst and Bates are in very good shape but I'm not sure both get in.  If Amherst plays Bates next weekend, that could effectively be an elimination game for the NCAA tourney, which would be a lot of fun and extremely stressful.  Both teams will be desperate for a win as neither has tasted the NCAAs for a very long time (especially Bates).  Although possible both can make it and NESCAC can get five depending on how things go elsewhere, I think a loss may drop either just enough to be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

[Stickthe3]

With one league game left, this is what we're looking at for the playoff seeds and matchups. Seeds 1 (Wesleyan), 5 (Bates), 6 (Bowdoin), 7 (Colby) and 8 (Conn College) are secured due to records and head to head tiebreakers.  Seeds 2, 3 and 4 (a combo of Tufts, Trinity and Amherst) are dependent on the outcome of the Tufts-Bates game on Sunday afternoon.

Scenario 1 - with a Tufts win vs Bates on Sunday
#1 Wesleyan vs #8 Conn College
#2 Tufts (as a result of their win against Trinity) vs #7 Colby (as a result of their win against Conn)
#3 Trinity vs #6 Bowdoin
#4 Amherst vs #5 Bates (as a result of their win against Bowdoin)


Scenario 2 - with a Tufts loss vs Bates on Sunday
#1 Wesleyan vs #8 Conn College
#2 Trinity vs #7 Colby
#3 Amherst (as a result of their win against Tufts) vs #6 Bowdoin
#4 Tufts vs #5 Bates

[ziggy]

Tough loss for Amherst but tough to beat a rival twice in one year, even when you are the better team (something Williams has learned a few times in recent years).  I think Amherst is still likely safe for the NCAA tourney with their high NPI, but if they lose next weekend, they will certainly have to sweat it out.  Neville was great today and certainly has my vote for ROTY (although there are loads of good options to pick from this season, Dawkins and Robinson especially, GREAT rookie class in NESCAC).  Garraud is a massive pest on defense and Chin is rock-solid and always brings it vs. Williams.  Chin and Neville are so physical and hard to keep out of the lane.  That three-guard rotation should be one of the best in the country next year, and despite their youth is already very tough to deal with.  Nate Pabis also had a strong game and has to be one of the most improved players in the league - moving to the 4, like for Hammond, really suited his game, I expect him to be a solid starter for Amherst next season. Amherst could not get the 3's to drop today but credit to the Eph D which ran through all of the zillion screens Amherst likes to set like their life depended on it.  Seven big blocks for the Ephs and a number of those game on jump shots, they contested like crazy. Best defensive play of the game was Belcher blocking what seemed like an easy transition layup for Neville, Belcher is as good a small guard I've seen in NESCAC at blocking shots.  Would have loved to have seen this level of play on both ends from the Ephs a few weeks ago, but better late than never!

You may be underrating the position Amherst entered the day and overrating the detrimental effect of today's loss. In our new run of simulations this morning, Amherst was in the tournament 100% of the time and according to game leverage on our daily scores predictions, the difference in those odds between winning and losing today was just 1%.

Good luck to the rest of NESCAC in the NESCAC and NCAA tourney.  Trinity, Tufts and Wesleyan are locks for the NCAA already and Trinity at least is a lock to host in round one.  Amherst and Bates are in very good shape but I'm not sure both get in.  If Amherst plays Bates next weekend, that could effectively be an elimination game for the NCAA tourney, which would be a lot of fun and extremely stressful.  Both teams will be desperate for a win as neither has tasted the NCAAs for a very long time (especially Bates).  Although possible both can make it and NESCAC can get five depending on how things go elsewhere, I think a loss may drop either just enough to be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

The NESCAC averaged 5.16 bids in this morning's run of 1,000 simulations after having crossed over from an average in the fours to over five earlier this week. As of this morning, Bates didn't look in quite as good of position as Amherst but still very strong. Colby had some tournament life but at-large odds at 17.4% suggested a narrower path that surely involved beating Wesleyan today.

Stay tuned to D3Datacast.com for tomorrow's update!