MBB: NESCAC

[D3BBALL]

This really could be one of the craziest and most uncertain NESCAC off-seasons we've had (or maybe just part for the course now in college hoops, this is nothing compared to the uncertainty D1 teams face basically every year):

Will Cuevas, Civello and Watson return or get picked up from the portal?  They are each critical, all-league players for teams in the middle of this year's standings.  And will anyone else test the portal (only a few more guys who really even could, realistically, at this point).  If they do not return, next year's all-league squad and POTY contenders looks as wide open as its ever been.   

Will Rutigliano and/or Linton end up moving up to D1, and if so, where does that leave those programs?

And it's already quite a transition year for NESCAC.  Trinity loses its top three guys and its top reserve from a core that has dominated the league for three years.  Are there young guys ready to step up who have been patiently waiting their turn?  Tufts will no matter what feature a very different look with its two star big guys graduating, but there is a lot of firepower on the perimeter returning.  Wesleyan is probably the most stable of the big three but does lose two starters including an all-league point guard as well as a steady sixth man who has been all-league in his career.  I think those three still go into next year as the co-favorites, but all of them will be very different teams who could easily fall back into the pack a bit. 

Amherst and Bates made big leaps and return some of the best players in the conference, but Amherst loses its two frontcourt starters from a pretty thin group and Bates loses its top shooters, also from a pretty thing group.  After both made their first tourney appearance in years, will that prove to be a one-year blip?

For Middlebury, do they make strides in the new coaching regime?  What does his first recruiting class look like?  Does Tristan Joseph return?  Can Williams rebound from an unusual two-year streak of erratic play (especially offensively) and look more like the Williams of old?  Can the Ephs find some guards who can score, and can they ever stay healthy for a full season?   

Hamilton and Bowdoin seem likely to be the bottom of the league (assuming Cuevas goes D1, which feels pretty safe to assume), but after that, I think it will be a wildly unpredictable year, especially if some of the coaches / players noted above do not return.

Overall, I'd be stunned if NESCAC runs up the type of non-league record next year that it would need to get five teams into the tourney.  Four might end up being a stretch as the league-wide NPI won't benefit (almost certainly) from three top-ten national teams next season.   

All good stuff, Jospeh from what I hear is not returning to Middlebury.

[nescac1]

el_jefe, I think you nailed it, both with best two-year run (Williams 2003 and 2004 in addition to the raw numbers featured a road win over D1 Holy Cross and wins over arch-rival Amherst both in the Elite 8 and Final Four, and the championship game they lost came down to a last-second shot), and best three-year run for Trinity. I think Trinity making three straight Final Fours AND a National Title AND three straight conference championships and by a fairly significant margin the best overall win-loss record of any three-year run is really unassailable, and can only ever be beaten by a team that wins back-to-back national titles.  They went down to the national title winner in their first Final Four and if the same happens this year, they can say that only the national champ was able to eliminate them from any tourney (NESCAC or NCAA) over three seasons. 

The other thing this Trinity class is definitely in the mix for is best ever single class in NESCAC. 

For that, you can look at 2004 Williams, 2008 Amherst, and 2026 Trinity.  Crotty/Coffin/Abba is absolutely elite, certainly the best 1-2 punch, but only three guys total hurts them.  Olson/Coulibaly/Goldsmith/Walters/Hopkins/Jones I think wins because they had a national POTY at the top and all the rest of those guys were at worst very good role players, just such crazy depth, and this Trinity class is right there with those two classes in terms of accolades.   

[D3BBALL]

Trinity has 7 pieces of hardware over 3 years, maybe that is the tie breaker??? If Trinity had beaten MW, I think that would have ended any discussion.

Also, with the transfer portal does it make it harder now, or easier. I would say harder both in terms of the new rules allowing anyone to transfer and play right away and then harder for teams to keep their best players.

[NEhoops]

el_jefe_90 – impressive stats on the best three year runs

toad22 – great insight on what makes a winning program.

How would you all rank/grade the current teams in the league based on the following:

Institutional support – budget/admissions 
Coaching – does the team get better throughout the season; able to make effective in game adjustments
Recruiting – relationship with the coaching staff; admissions and facilities play a role here
Facilities
Player development – what first years and sophomores are making big impacts as juniors and seniors

Great point about teams that end up practicing/playing more over the course of the season.

[AmherstStudent05]

Loving this discussion, but I have to say a few words in support of my Jeffs!  For starters, a lot of different time frames have been thrown around, so I will do my best to be brief but comprehensive.

Most accomplished team over one season.  To me this has to be Amherst 2013.  They went 30-2 (without losing a game for all of 2013 or whenever our preferred starting five all dressed), won the NCAA Tournament, the NESCAC Championship, and the NESCAC regular season.  To date they are the only team ever to accomplish this trifecta.  For bonus points they went undefeated in both NESCAC and Little 3 play.

Most accomplished team over two seasons: Much as it pains me to say it, the Williams run of 2003-04 is the strongest contender.  They followed up a Championship in 2003 with another trip to the Championship game in 2004.  While Amherst 08 did this as well, Williams won two NESCAC championships and one NESCAC regular season title during this time whereas Amherst 08 *only* had the two NESCAC regular season titles.  The Holy Cross win is also a nice touch.  I am honestly not sure how much weight margin of victory should play into things, but if you are going to look at it, then it seems to me it must go both ways.  Yes Williams narrowly lost to Stevens Point in 04 (I was privileged to be court side for that game right by where Crotty attempted a last gasp desperation heave for the win), but they also very narrowly won both of their Salem games in 2003, and the team they beat in the finals in 2003 was not a particularly credentialed one (in fairness neither was the team we beat in 2013).  As an aside, I do think the most impressive "Salem" performance by a NESCAC team was Amherst in 2007.  We beat Wooster by 7 in the Semifinals and then beat Virginia Wesleyan by 13 in the finals.  Wooster and Virginia Wesleyan were two of the top five teams all season long and Virginia Wesleyan was the defending champion with its two best players returned.

Most accomplished team over 3 seasons (and this is where most of the recent conversation has been): Here there are a lot of good candidates but I have to make the case for Amherst 06-08.  Of course, if we are only looking at NCAA Tournament performance then this is actually an open and shut case.  Amherst, like Trinity, made three consecutive final fours, but the Jeffs actually won an extra game as we won it all in 2007 and made the championship game in 2008.  Now it is true that Trinity won 3 NESCAC Championships during this time whereas Amherst *only* won one but to me this is offset by the fact that this Trinity group has never had the best regular season NESCAC record, a feat Amherst accomplished every year during this time.  And, if NESCAC performance can make up for NCAA Tournament shortcomings, then I think we have to throw Amherst 2012-14 back in the mix.  That team won a national championship, made another final four, and lost a total of 1 NESCAC game in three years, winning the NESCAC Championship and regular season titles in all those years.  It is true that Trinity had a better overall three year record than Amherst over that period of time but I dont think it is by that much.  I have Amherst at 85-10 and Trinity 89-8.  But, of course, so much of this depends on how one schedules the out of conference opponents which obviously isnt as tightly controlled as NESCAC or NCAA tournament play.  For instance one year during this stretch we played (and lost to) an NAIA team down in Florida.  We obviously also have the annual Little 3 showdowns which typically toughens up our schedule (although Williams was down for a good chunk of this time).  I honestly don't know, but has Trinity scheduled a particularly formidable non-conference schedule these past three years?

Most accomplished team over four seasons: To me the two frontrunners here are Amherst 08 and Amherst 14.  For Amherst 08 we have one national title, two championship game appearances, three final four appearances, two NESCAC championships and four NESCAC regular season titles and an overall record of 111-12.  Amherst 14 also has a national championship and one additional final four appearance, with an elite 8 and sweet 16 rounding out the NCAA resume.  That Amherst team also won three NESCAC championships and three NESCAC regular season titles and had two consecutive undefeated NESCAC seasons. Also, no NESCAC team ever beat the Amherst Class of 2014 in LeFrak. Not once in four years.  That is particularly impressive when you consider that that Amherst team hosted three NESCAC tournaments so the best teams in the NESCAC (and this is when Williams and Middlebury were really good) had multiple bites at the apple and couldnt get the job done.  The Amherst Class of 2014 had a career record of 108-13 (if my math holds).