MBB: NESCAC

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Babson and Endicott are going to end up being "good" losses.  Obviously you'd like to have those wins, but I suspect both of those teams will be 20 game winners or very close to it.

[JEFFFAN]

ThumannsOwn -

It is burdensome to respond to super long strings so let me offer a few thoughts on Amherst hoops.

Yes, it is difficult watching Sears take an elite program down the tubes.  While I am sure he is a fine man, his hire never made sense ... one of those "hey look he coached at the D1 level so he will be great in D3" hires.  To this day he hasn't figured out that D3 basketball is a guard's game and not a big man's game, so his recruits continue to be mediocre (generously) big men who weren't getting recruited by the Ivies.  It is a formula for failure.

He was also part of a crew that included the since-terminated men's lacrosse coach, the squash coach, and the women's volleyball coach, all hired under the DEI umbrella that Amherst more than maybe every other school in the NESCAC lived under with the prior regime. None of these hires have worked, to say the least.   The current president is trying to reverse the remnants of the latter years of the prior administration's heavy-handed rule, but it takes time especially when the faculty is as deeply entrenched in the DEI culture as the president was.

Bottom line is that the basketball natives, the ones that matter, are VERY restless, as were the football natives. So Sears is probably safe for now but not for long.

[jumbomumbo]

D3Bball, Zene did not play, maybe still recovering from injury? 

ThumannsOwn, pretty crazy re: Rein - Williams is certainly delighted to have him as he looks like he's primed for a great career for the Ephs.  Of course, to be fair that 10th place prediction was only an uneducated guess - after seeing the impact of their newcomers, I'd probably have pegged Amherst a few spots higher than 10th, they probably have more talent right now than Midd or Hamilton.  But certainly not in the top half of the league.  Amherst has not made the NCAA tourney since 2019, and if they don't this year - and I'd be very surprised if they did - we are talking about a 7-year run with no NCAA appearances.  From 2000 to 2019, they missed the NCAAs two times TOTAL.  So yeah, not exactly the level Amherst fans are accustomed to. 

A few other random early-season NESCAC thoughts:

Wesleyan seems pegged about right as a bottom-of-the-top-25 kind of team, playing TCNJ, which is also in that range, dead even after a game one blowout over an outmatched opponent.  Wesleyan has a lot of capable players but no clear star who is going to carry them every game, I'd say.  They do however have one of the top ROTY contenders in Jaalan Watson, an all-state player in H.S. who clearly is utterly unafraid to shoot it and is an elite athlete.  At a VERY generous listing of 5'10 155, he's putting up 13-5.5 in only 16 mpg and definitely is going to be a fun player to watch. 

Tufts, others have already made good points about, somehow this team loaded with talent has managed to lose four of its last five games going back to last season.  I agree with others that the early season schedule has certainly not helped.  I assume Tufts rights the ship and still ends up as an NCAA tourney team, but they've given themselves very little margin for error going forward if they want to end up as a high NCAA seed.  There is no way James Morakis stays on a 7 ppg pace and a return to his expected all-American level would by itself right the ship.  I note that Liam Kennelly has not played through two games, I assume injured, and he is someone who I suspect they really miss - one of my favorite guys to watch in the league, he really raises the energy level for the entire team. 

On another NESCAC note, Trinity's national title run is paying dividends in recruiting, they received a commitment from Rowan Introzzi, a highly ranked, physical wing/guard who looks like he has potential to give them a lot of what they will lose when Vetter graduates, similar profile of player at least. 

I believe Liam Kennelly is out for the year, unfortunately. Definitely a big loss and think he would have positively impacted tufts on both sides of the ball in both of those losses.

[ChickenHoops]

Will Tufts win a game in the NESCAC this year?   

[rdanie03]

Will Tufts win a game in the NESCAC this year?   

They will do what they have done each of the last couple years. Win 8-9 games and then get blown out by Trinity

[nescac1]

Nice, scrappy win for Williams despite being ice cold (2-20) from three.  This version of the Ephs is very different from past versions.  They play with a lot more pace, go after offensive rebounds a lot more aggressively, and are just generally pests around the ball, but they lack the polish and shooting of a more typical Eph team.  Even if it's not always elegant I think it's fun to watch. 

Alex Lee out with an injury is such a huge loss to the backcourt, which now lacks a guy who is capable of really going off as a scorer and also misses his steadying influence as a ball-handler.  But the quartet of Belcher, O, Shepherd, and Devine, while lacking an elite offensive player, are good athletes who grab a lot of loose balls and can make things happen going to the rim when they have an opening, they combined for 5 steals and 15 boards today.  Shepherd had a particularly important stretch in the second half. 

Hansen and Rein owned the interior today, both having excellent games.  Rein is so much smoother and more confident this year in terms of getting his own shot, while still excelling at making plays off the ball. Those two and Yates did a great job on the glass up front.  Winning the battle of the boards 51-36 was key in a game Williams was badly outshot, and a change from the usual Oneonta game, which in the past usually featured the opposite sort of ratio.  FY Sommers also makes big contributions in light minutes and I imagine he will keep seeing more time. 

Williams can play better as it cleans up some of the sloppy turnovers, hopefully shoot it much better, and do a better job sticking with three point shooters as the competition gets tougher. 

[el_jefe_90]

Another thing to add to the Williams vs. Oneonta game last night, there were 22 ties and a ridiculous 48 lead changes! That's not something you see everyday. Through the first 37-38 minutes, neither team led by more than 5. It was a fun game to watch.

[SpringSt7]

Colby ekes out a 1 point win against a frisky Suffolk team. Something to note - Max Poulton has played 21 minutes in each game under Coach Rutgliano so far and has scored just 12 points on 14 shots. Doesn't appear to be much of a focal point for what the Mules are trying to do

[CWM_42]

Uneven game from the Mules, but they knock off previously undefeated Endicott, 93-89.

[D3BBALL]

Yeshiva has had to of played the toughest schedule in the country. Randolph Macon, Mary Washington, Trinity and Tufts all ranked along with Chapman.
They had Tufts beat at Tufts but completely fell apart today. 20 point lead with less than 10 minutes to go. Lost in ot. Good comeback for Tufts

[nescac1]

Overall, a very solid start to the season for NESCAC teams.  After a shaky 11-6 collective first weekend (typical for the conference with a late start to practice), the league has since gone 23-2, for a total collective record of 34-8.  While extremely early, NESCAC has four teams in the top 25 of the NPI rankings, and all I think can fairly be called surprising: Colby at 8, Conn at 15, Middlebury at 18, Bates at 21. The conference may be deeper than anticipated, with two new coaches off to strong starts and Conn in particular benefiting from a big infusion of talent.  Really, now that Tufts seems to have kind-of righted the ship after a huge comeback win against Yeshiva, only Hamilton is off to a very rough start (the only NESCAC team outside the top 100 in NPI, at a brutal 308). 

Again it's early, and this is mostly based on a combo of stats and pedigree, but a few sophomore leap guys and a bunch of newcomers to watch in NESCAC this year:

Sophomores taking a leap:

Dan Civello, Colby
Ray Cuevas, Bowdoin
Elias Chin, Amherst
Jackson Rein, Williams
David Ayles, Trinity
Zach Wolinski, Wesleyan

(Cuevas and Civello were great as FYs of course but so far are putting up first-team all-conference type stats, and Rein, Chin and Wolinski have emerged from bench roles as FYs to become the top options on their teams.  As for Ayles, he seems to have slid right into Will Dorion's role for Trinity, which was expected, but still answers the biggest question facing Trinity heading into this season). 

Newcomers to watch:

Dominick Ducree, Middlebury
Jackson Bleeker, Bowdoin (missed last year with injury)
Mason Dawkins, Bowdoin
EJ Sommers, Williams
Jamari Robinson, Bates
Ricardo Nieves, Tufts
James LaFrance, Conn College (sophomore transfer)
Greg Cantwell, Conn College (junior transfer)
Cole Craffey, Conn College
Sherron Woodberry, Amherst
Ian Plankey, Wesleyan
David Melson, Hamilton

Bowdoin has faced a very weak schedule, but still encouraging for them to see Bleeker and Dawkins emerging to help out Cuevas on the perimeter.  Conn seems to have massively benefited from the transfer portal.  Assuming the transfers aren't eligible, Ducree is an early name to watch for ROTY, with an absolutely money game-winning shot already under his belt and strong early stats for Midd. 

Some big games coming up before the December break:

Vassar (25 NPI) at Williams, December 2
Bates at Bowdoin, December 2
Babson (23 NPI) at Trinity, December 6
Williams at Wesleyan, December 6
CMU (52 NPI) at Bowdoin, December 6
Rochester (7 NPI) v. Midd, December 6
Midd v. CMU, December 7
Rochester at Bowdoin, December 7
WNEC (19 NPI) at Wesleyan, December 13

Lots of chances for early NPI boosts for NESCAC teams in these games, with December 6/7 an especially big weekend, or of course tougher competition could bring some teams with strong early records down to earth ...

[maineman]

Midd's last couple of games featured a 17-2 run to close out a come from behind one point victory over Union where they trailed virtually the whole game.  Decree was excellent, especially from 3.  Then against Stevens they led for most of the game and fought off any chance of a Stevens comeback with 3 pt shooting from Cwalina and Ducree.  If the latter is legit and I believe he is, the re-emergence of Jackson McKersie and role playing of Flaks, Ramey, Murray, Witherinton and Murray could make them competitive again.  We will get an indication Tuesday night at Plattsburgh and Sunday against RPI.

[redbirds]

I'm new to the board here, though it feels long overdue for a Wesleyan Cardinal supporter to finally join the discussion. I've been reading these boards for the better part of 10–15 years, and I've now decided it's time for Wesleyan to have another steady, reasonable voice in the mix.

And what better time to speak up than after such a tremendous weekend for the Cards, sweeping the tournament down in Maryland? Defeating a top-10 Roanoke team after trailing by more than twenty points is no small accomplishment. Wolinski and Pohlman turned in outstanding performances and have shown they're more than capable of filling the void left by Regan and Johnson. And, I should add, it's good to see Johnson providing strong knowledge and experience on that coaching staff.

It's exciting to see the Cardinals back in form, and I'm looking forward to what the rest of the season holds.

[nescac1]

Some early season thoughts on Williams:

This is a very atypical Williams team.  The team is not as big and not as skilled as most past editions, but is quicker, more athletic, more aggressive and plays at a MUCH faster pace.  The strength of the team is the starting frontcourt: Yates, Rein and Hansen are all stellar two-way wing/forwards, all can defend, rebound, score off the bounce, move well without the ball, and work well together, and Yates and Rein are also excellent three-point shooters. When EJ Sommers returns, he gives an extra dimension off the bench with more length, but also is a similar sort of versatile player who can attack off the bounce and shoot despite his size.  Dickens and Nachamkin are solid role players who compete hard and defend behind the top group in the rotation.

The evolution during the course of non-conference play of the star-less backcourt is what will make or break this team.  With Glatzer and Dickens graduating and seniors Lee and McGraw unfortunately out with significant injuries (and also, until recently, Cooley), four guys have been playing who had very little previous on-court experience.  The group does not feature high-level outside shooting, is smallish overall, and doesn't appear to have that one guy who can carry the offense for a long spurt of play like Lee could. 

But last night's game (granted, against one of the least talented teams on the schedule) showed the upside case for what the guards can potentially be as a group. Chibuogwu is really a great story, a guy who joined the team as a walk-on last year, barely played, and is now improbably the starting point guard.  And he's played very well, he goes at full-speed every play on both ends, pushes the pace relentlessly on offense, is physical inside the paint, creates for his teammates, and gets to the rim.  If he can improve just a bit in the free throw and three point shooting areas he will have a great senior year, but even if not, he's shown he's a legit starting PG.  Dylan Shepherd has also been a surprise starter, and while his stats are modest, he is a pest who makes a lot of hustle plays on defense and the glass and helps keep the pace up, with a lot of room still for growth as a player.  Justin Belcher is one of the most electric players on the team, extremely fast and always a threat to blow by a defender or steal a sleepy pass, his impact will grow as he hopefully learns to eliminate turnovers and other negative plays.  Yesterday was him at his best with 8-7-4 and two steals against only one TO in only 17 minutes, when he plays like that, it makes a huge difference for the team.  Finally Matt Devine I think has the most upside as a scorer of this group, after two injury-ridden years he's looked increasingly comfortable as a heat-check offensive player off the bench.  He is someone the Ephs are gonna need to have some double-digit scoring games here and there as the season goes along, because they can't just rely on the front-court to do it all offensively.  Sammy Cooley is now also back in the mix as another veteran athletic guard who can also back-up at the wing, and hopefully add some badly-needed outside shooting.  And deep in the bench Solomon Marshall is an elite athlete (per the Berkshire Eagle he has an insane 37-inch standing vertical ) who provides added depth in case of injury, and Tyler Kuehl is another wing shooter with size.

The backcourt will continue to be a challenge for App without one go-to player back there and I assume he will continue to mix and match guys in short spurts to allow them to play at a frenetic pace at both ends.  One wrinkle that having a lot of quick, interchangeable guards, none of whom are alone indispensable to the offense, may permit as the season goes along is more aggressive ball-pressure on opposing guards.  If Williams (as it seems) isn't going to play any of its guards more than around 20-22 mpg, they can use that depth and relative freedom to accumulate fouls on the perimeter to harass teams that have shaky ball-handlers or to wear down opposing star guards, turning a weakness into an asset. 

Thoughts on the rest of the league later ...

[nescac1]

As for the rest of the NESCAC, the league is as easy to handicap at the top spot as it's ever been - Trinity looks utterly dominant and seems way ahead of everyone right now - but extremely difficult to predict in spots 2-10. 

As for 11, Hamilton is off to a brutal start with three early losses including a bad loss to SUNY Dehli.  They have some tough games coming up - F&M, IWU, Utica and Keene - and the record could get pretty ugly barring rapid improvement.  Garret Keyhani, who they really need, has only played one game and is presumably injured.  Jalen Reese, who is ideally a 3rd-4th option on offense who can focus on elite defense and rebounding, is leading the team in scoring.  Really, the change in Hamilton's fortunes is a reminder of just how elite a player Hank Morgan was (and they miss Singh as well).  In the Morgan vs. Regan debate, it was always clear that Regan had a ton more talent around him, and Wesleyan is still very competitive without both him AND Nicky Johnson.  Hamilton relied SO much on Morgan and it shows. 

But for the rest of the league, who knows.  Starting with last year's NCAA teams, Wesleyan, elite last year, is still very good and I expect a top-five sort of team in NESCAC, but is not going to be close to 30-2. Tufts is off to a bit of a rocky start but seems to have mostly righted the ship and has enough talent that it should be a top four team in the league again.  Hamilton, obviously way down from last year.

Meanwhile, the bottom 7 teams in the league may ALL be improved this year, some significantly so.  Going from last year's order, Conn is currently starting three transfers, two of whom are its leading scorers; Williams I covered in my last post, they at least seem feistier; Colby seems to be a lot more balanced and Civello is off to a scorching start (20-8-4 on 59/60/69 splits, wow); Amherst has four blow-out wins (with a tough loss to Springfield the only thing marring the resume) and is benefiting from an infusion of young talent while playing with a lot more pace; Middlebury has benefitted from an out-of-nowhere leap from junior Ian Murray and a strong frosh season from Ducree; Bates is as expected looking like a very improved team behind a strong veteran core led by Pouye and Coyne; and Bowdoin seems massively improved too, with an impressive blow out over Springfield last night.  Ray Cuevas is (as largely expected, but still impressive) absolutely lighting it up from everywhere and could make a bid for all-American honors if anything close to his current pace continues. 

In sum, Trinity barring some sort of injury disaster is a lock for the NCAA tournament.  NESCAC is sure to get 2-3 more teams in when all is said and done, but who those teams will be, and who will be fighting Trinity for the league crown looks fairly wide open right now, with only Hamilton on the outside looking in already.