MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Whelp, credit to Amherst / Coach Sears, I thought for sure this would be an exhausted Amherst team who lost easily to Wesleyan, and not only did they throttle Wesleyan's offense today, they did it playing only seven guys (one of whom played only 13 minutes)!

This was a typically UGLY Little 3 non-conference game.  Chris Hammond was the only guy who could do anything consistently on offense, he was on fire and scored 20 including 8 of only 18 Amherst made field goals.  He also outplayed Wesleyan's bigger interior players in the paint, excellent two-way game for him.  Elias Chin also had a stellar two way game with 11-7-5 plus 2 steals and three blocks. He is one of those guys who can control the floor without putting up a ton of points. Hammond, Chin and Drew Martin (probably the best game I've seen from him despite not hitting his shots) did a great job of protecting the rim today. 

As for Wesleyan, what a brutal game, their offense was truly putrid.  They were 5-25 from three and while some of that can be chalked up to just being cold, Amherst's D deserves a ton of credit as there were almost no clean looks from the outside, Amherst was definitely the much quicker team.  Zach Wolinski was the only guy who had any juice at all for Wesleyan, the rest of the team just looked a bit lethargic and uncertain.  Ben Lyttle did not play which certainly didn't help as Wesleyan is thin on wing offense even with him.   

Sears has earned some of his criticism here but he does know how to coach up a defense and Amherst is usually very tough on that end, especially in the Little 3 games when they always come hard.  Despite being much smaller than recent Amherst teams, this group more than makes up for it with team speed and toughness, and Martin and Hammond play bigger than their listed size defensively.  The offense is still not terribly pretty but they at least spread you out and make you guard a bunch of guys who can penetrate off the bounce. 

As for Wesleyan, they really have to do well in this next part of the schedule, if they lose I'd say more than one of the next five, the odds of a Pool C get very thin given that Trinity, Tufts and some other very tough games are waiting on the back end of the schedule. 

[CWM_42]

Another throttling, this time by Bates.  Pouye has 25 points, 11 rebounds, six blocks and four steals, looking like a POY candidate.  Robinson has 18 points in 21 minutes looking like a ROY candidate.  Colby was up five at the half and outscored 52-29 in the second half.  Bates out-rebounded Colby 49-41.  Mules need to tighten things up by next weekend when Conn and Tufts come to town.

Bates with wins over Bowdoin and Colby is now the CBB leader.

[JEFFFAN]

Excited that Amherst got the win over Wesleyan, a program that got better while Amherst got worse.   So a good start to the year.   However, winning with so few points isn't a long-term way to win the NESCAC.   Defense is rarely a specialty that wins at the D3 level - need guys shooting and making threes.

[ephsandbantams]

Nice second half showing from Williams to beat Worcester State, a team that played Wesleyan very close. Williams' two best players are their sophomores Yates and Rein. Not far off is Belcher, forming quite a sophomore class. Belcher is getting better quickly and will someday be an all-league guard. Keep an eye on the progress of Matt Devine, who can deliver a significant scoring punch off the bench. The trio of wing scoring can take these Ephs a long way this year and next. Most exciting to see is EJ Sommers who has a rim running, and early sealing presence that Williams hasn't had in years. He's got a nice first step as a straight line driver and a great motor on the offensive glass. He will also develop into an all-NESCAC talent. If Hudson Hansen can settle into his role as this team's leader, I like the Ephs to take two at home in this first NESCAC weekend.

[Greek Tragedy]

Excited that Amherst got the win over Wesleyan, a program that got better while Amherst got worse.  So a good start to the year.  However, winning with so few points isn't a long-term way to win the NESCAC.  Defense is rarely a specialty that wins at the D3 level - need guys shooting and making threes.

I think Trinity CT and RMC, among others, might disagree with you.

[D3BBALL]

Excited that Amherst got the win over Wesleyan, a program that got better while Amherst got worse.  So a good start to the year.  However, winning with so few points isn't a long-term way to win the NESCAC.  Defense is rarely a specialty that wins at the D3 level - need guys shooting and making threes.

I think Trinity CT and RMC, among others, might disagree with you.

Agree both those teams have been dominant (top 10) with great defense and then good to very good offense. But for both it starts with defense which then gets them good shots on offense.

[nescac1]

Yeah I feel like something shifted in D3 hoops after the pandemic, not sure if it's just a phase or it will sustain, but the types of teams who have been winning titles are consistent.  In the past, you could win with size, skill, shooting and elite offensive movement, but now, it feels like you have to have quickness and one of the top defenses in the country to be the champ.  Teams can be just good enough offensively (certainly need to be at least good in all phases to win a title), they don't need to have a star big man, they don't necessarily need to be elite outside shooting teams (though it helps), but the last four title teams - RMC, CNU, Trine and Trinity - have all been deep, fast, and absolutely relentless on defense, and have been able to hold in check some very good offensive teams in the title games (averaging only 60 points allowed in those four title games in the aggregate, which is pretty crazy given the caliber of opponents). Collective speed and relentlessness to the ball creates easy second-chance points and points in transition, mitigating the need for star offensive players to create on their own every trip down the court.   

And Trinity and RMC, clearly the top two right now and really over the course of this decade, play the same style this year.  RMC's starting five is like an average high school team in terms of size - 6'0, 6'1, 6'2, 6'3, 6'6 - but it doesn't matter one bit because of how fast and disciplined and creative their defense is.  Trinity is a little bigger but still no one over 6'6 out there in the first unit.  But they lock-down opposing ball-handlers and give you no room to breathe out there and are strong enough that taller players don't really worry them and then they bring in a second five all at once who play six minutes like rabid dogs.

Emory is to me the team to watch with a different approach.  Their defense is not at the level of RMC / Trinity but they are much bigger inside and light it up offensively nearly every game.  And Emory's guards are so good that perhaps they will be less bothered by the pressure these defenses put on ball-handlers.

I think that this shift explains WIAC's relative title drought.  From 2010-2019 there were five WIAC winners and one runner-up (although to be fair Whitewater, which won two, was more like the recent speedy defense-first champions). And this decade, no WIAC team has yet to make the final game.  Those precise offenses with lots of big, burly, high-skilled players who can shoot it at a very high level aren't getting across the finish line anymore against teams that simply play faster across the lineup. 

This year, a LOT can change but RMC and Trinity would certainly both profile like the next champion if they stay healthy, and if they meet in the tourney it would be an epic defensive grind.  But I do think Emory is as explosive an offense as we've seen in awhile and has the athletic guards needed to knock either of those teams off, plus maybe their huge size edge inside causes some issues.   

By the way, we've certainly seen this dynamic play out in NESCAC where some very good Tufts teams have been owned by Trinity because they just can't match up with Trinity's quickness advantage. 

[D3BBALL]

My preconference rankings. 3 games tonight but none will change my thoughts. The below Strength of Schedule is from Massey and out of 409 teams
1) Trinity 11-0 - No Change- Strength of Schedule 257 was 217. They just keep blowing everyone out, not that the schedule is that great.
2) Tufts 11-2 - Up 2 spots – Strength of Schedule 137 was 155 – Have now won 12 in a row, can't overlook that. Beat Clark and WPI, with WPI on the road. Getting injured players back and made significant lineup changes. Going into Conference play, they are solid #2.
3) Bates 9-0 - No change - Strength of Schedule 218 was 323. Played 2 top 25 teams, Emory got blown out but nice comeback win the next day. With Pouye they can beat anyone in conference.
4-9 are interchangeable
4) Wesleyan 9-4 - Down 2 - Strength of Schedule 127 was 106 - 2 losses, 1 not very good, they might just be starting to miss Regan and Johnson. Could have moved them down further.
5) Colby 10-2 – No Change – Strength of Schedule 242 was 275 – Outplayed by Bates in 2nd half and Pouye outplayed Civello, which was telling.
6) Conn 10-2 – No change – Strength of Schedule 219 now 227 – Loss to Hartford not good, close win against Springfield, both on the road. They will win some games they maybe shouldn't and lose ones they shouldn't as well.
7) Williams 10-2 – No change – Strength of Schedule 290 was 264. Still really haven't played or beaten anyone.
8) Bowdoin 9-3 – No change - Strength of Schedule 197 was 161. Cuevas in contention for player of year, but not my choice, lol!. Getting healthy, will be a fun team to watch in conference play.
9) Amherst 10-3 – No Change – Strength of Schedule 303 was 395 out of 409. Very good win against Wesleyan, but still not sold, might have overrated Wesleyan.
10) Middlebury 6-4 – No change – Strength of Schedule 188 was 103. Giving up 97 points at home to Lasell, yikes.
11) Hamilton 3-9, No Change – Strength of Schedule 195 was 199. Tough game tonight against St. Joes CT, again just don't have enough scoring.

All below should really be determined by conference play and not out of conference games unless they are against NESCAC teams. But based on season so far:
POY - Pouye right now, but Vetter and Okorougo both being hurt by team blowing everyone out. Neither average 24 minutes a game. Cuevas in contention but doesn't affect the game defensively like Pouye. Gyimesi in the running as well.
First team locks - Pouye, Gyimesi, Vetter, Okorougo, Lazarre, Cuevas.
2nd team locks - Civello, they rest of the picks are wide open. I see like 20 players that could fall into this.
DPOY – Hard to argue with either Lazarre or Okorougo.

[D3BBALL]

Yeah I feel like something shifted in D3 hoops after the pandemic, not sure if it's just a phase or it will sustain, but the types of teams who have been winning titles are consistent.  In the past, you could win with size, skill, shooting and elite offensive movement, but now, it feels like you have to have quickness and one of the top defenses in the country to be the champ.  Teams can be just good enough offensively (certainly need to be at least good in all phases to win a title), they don't need to have a star big man, they don't necessarily need to be elite outside shooting teams (though it helps), but the last four title teams - RMC, CNU, Trine and Trinity - have all been deep, fast, and absolutely relentless on defense, and have been able to hold in check some very good offensive teams in the title games (averaging only 60 points allowed in those four title games in the aggregate, which is pretty crazy given the caliber of opponents). Collective speed and relentlessness to the ball creates easy second-chance points and points in transition, mitigating the need for star offensive players to create on their own every trip down the court.   

And Trinity and RMC, clearly the top two right now and really over the course of this decade, play the same style this year.  RMC's starting five is like an average high school team in terms of size - 6'0, 6'1, 6'2, 6'3, 6'6 - but it doesn't matter one bit because of how fast and disciplined and creative their defense is.  Trinity is a little bigger but still no one over 6'6 out there in the first unit.  But they lock-down opposing ball-handlers and give you no room to breathe out there and are strong enough that taller players don't really worry them and then they bring in a second five all at once who play six minutes like rabid dogs.

Emory is to me the team to watch with a different approach.  Their defense is not at the level of RMC / Trinity but they are much bigger inside and light it up offensively nearly every game.  And Emory's guards are so good that perhaps they will be less bothered by the pressure these defenses put on ball-handlers.

I think that this shift explains WIAC's relative title drought.  From 2010-2019 there were five WIAC winners and one runner-up (although to be fair Whitewater, which won two, was more like the recent speedy defense-first champions). And this decade, no WIAC team has yet to make the final game.  Those precise offenses with lots of big, burly, high-skilled players who can shoot it at a very high level aren't getting across the finish line anymore against teams that simply play faster across the lineup. 

This year, a LOT can change but RMC and Trinity would certainly both profile like the next champion if they stay healthy, and if they meet in the tourney it would be an epic defensive grind.  But I do think Emory is as explosive an offense as we've seen in awhile and has the athletic guards needed to knock either of those teams off, plus maybe their huge size edge inside causes some issues.   

By the way, we've certainly seen this dynamic play out in NESCAC where some very good Tufts teams have been owned by Trinity because they just can't match up with Trinity's quickness advantage. 

NESCAC, agree on Emory, if there is 1 team that Trinity should be afraid of it is Emory.

[nescac1]

Wesleyan, Conn College and Williams, all likely middle of the pack NESCAC teams, beat Worcester State by 31 combined points. Trinity beat them (on the road) by 50 tonight.  It really feels like Trinity is going to cruise through the league unless they completely fall asleep (not in their character) or have an abominably bad shooting day while an opponent is hot.