MBB: NESCAC

[D3BBALL]

Agree with all of the above on Trinity and their bench. The 2nd unit besides Berry and McDonald is not the same or as experienced. Berry started off shooting terribly, I think like 0-16 from 3, but has since been better like 3-10. And Berry was hurt the beginning of the year, missed 2 games and might need time to get his scoring touch and legs going. Shooters get into slumps; they need him to come out of it.

McDonald is the one they need back as he is the bridge between the starters and the bench. McDonald gives them versatility at all the positions and the one Cosgrove trusts at the end of the games with the starters.

Agree on Ayles he has been terrific all year. Their top 7 is as good or better than any in the country and certainly tops in the NESCAC.

The bench lacks the outside scoring like last year with Macarchuk gone, which may be the biggest difference along with playing experience. I would say that yes, their 2nd unit is not as good as the last 2 years, but it is not bad. I bet right up there with others in the NESCAC. Just the last 2 years the 2nd unit was just so good and probably better than half the first units in the NESCAC. When/if McDonald comes back that should help that unit.

When they played against St Joes and their 4-point win. Lazarre and Okorougo both played 30 minutes, Vetter was in foul trouble and played 25, Ayles played 27. Besides McDonald and Berry the other 3 bench players only played like 4 minutes in the 2nd half. Cosgrove will give the 2nd unit some leeway in first half of NESCAC games, but in the 2nd half, if close, he is going to ride the starters along with Berry and McDonald. The experience these 7 have had winning, and winning close games, the last 3 years would be pretty hard to top.

[D3BBALL]

Anyone want to join me in first week picks?
Friday Night
Bates 77 - Amherst 60
Tufts 73 - Bowdoin 65
Conn 77 - Colby 72
Williams 66 - Wesleyan 64
Trinity 81 - Midd 69

Saturday
Wesleyan 67 - Midd 64
Trinity 72 - Williams 55
Bowdoin 73 - Conn 70
Tufts 78 - Colby 74

Sunday
Bates 75 - Hamilton 55

I'm in, but I was terrible at this last year, Jumbo was really good lol   need to get him involved.

Bates 65 at Amherst 55
Tufts 69 at Bowdoin 72
Conn 65 at Colby 78
At Williams 59 Wesleyan 56
Trinity 89 at Midd 69

Saturday
Wesleyan 80 at Midd 77
Trinity 78 at Williams 61
Bowdoin 59 Home Conn 64
Tufts 73 at Colby 65

Sunday
Bates 85 at Hamilton 65

[NEhoops]

I'm most intrigued by the Bow/Col/Con matchups.

One of those teams has the potential for an at-large bid.

The Wes/Wil game on Fri should be a good one. Wes won (in CT) 65-54 in their first matchup in early Dec. They will be hungry coming of the uninspiring showing at Amh. 

Wil will be hosting this time (and vs Tri on Sat) and is riding a four-game win streak.

Every league win is huge, especially on the road.   

[nescac1]

Following up on SpringSt7's point about Trinity's turnover ratio, I looked up a few national stats:

Trinity is first nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (Bates at 14 and Tufts at 16, which has been key to their success).  Trinity is also first nationally, by a wide margin, in turnover ratio at 13.3 per game (Grinnell playing its weird system is second-best at 10.3) and ninth nationally in turnovers forced per game.  Trinity is also second nationally in FG percentage defense - just an insane combination to be able to force so many turnovers through intense ball pressure AND hold teams to such a low shooting percentage; usually a risk-taking defense will give up a good number of easy shots.    Unsurprisingly given all that, Trinity is first nationally in ppg allowed by a wide margin.  To beat Trinity, NESCAC teams will have to keep the turnover margin much closer to even. 

Some other NESCAC stats of note - Tufts, let by Bernstein and Gyimesi up front, is 7th in blocks per game.  Trinity is 15th, and Bowdoin, surprisingly, is 19th. 

Speaking of field goal percentage defense, the eye test does not lie for Amherst, which is first nationally, even ahead of Trinity, in field goal percentage defense at an astounding 33.8 percent. And they've done that without an elite rim protector inside; all their guys stick like glue on opposing ball-handlers and few shots seem to be wide-open.  It helps of course that Amherst has played a terrible schedule, but they showed against Wesleyan that they can lock a good team down.  Williams is not too far behind at 8th nationally in that department.

Bates is first nationally in rebound margin per game despite mostly playing a lineup that isn't huge.  Pouye is a monster in the paint, O'Leary and Sparks rebound extremely well for their size, and Mayen is a major force on the offensive glass in his limited minutes off the bench.  NESCAC teams generally rebound it very well, with 6 teams in the top 35 nationally in rebounding margin - none of them Trinity (which is mere 47th )!

NESCAC teams generally fair well in ppg allowed - in addition to Trinity first, Amherst is 3rd, and Williams 11th.   

Where do we see almost no NESCAC teams?  In any of the team leaders in any offensive category.  Three point shooting continues to be particularly rough - no NESCAC team is ranked in the top 50 nationally in three point percentage (the 50th ranked team is at 36.36 percent).  The NESCAC team three point percentages range from Bates at a solid .356 down to Hamilton at at brutal 28 percent.  Wesleyan is also really struggling to hit outside shots, sitting at 31 percent.  Trinity is the best (surprise) in the league at a solid 29th nationally in overall field goal percentage. 


So, the pattern we've seen in recent years seems to be the same this year - this is a defense-first league featuring a slew of nationally-elite defenses, led by Trinity's best defense in the nation, where a lot of teams really struggle to shoot the deep ball, and we can expect, starting with this weekend, a heck of a lot of low-scoring defensive grinds in league play. 

[Stickthe3]

Predictions for the weekend:
Friday
Colby 70 Conn 64
Bates 68 Amherst 54
Williams 66 Wesleyan 57
Trinity 81 Middlebury 60
Tufts 73 Bowdoin 64

Saturday
Wesleyan 70 Middlebury 56
Tufts 74 Colby 66
Trinity 79 Williams 61
Conn 68 Bowdoin 62

Sunday
Bates 82 Hamilton 58

[el_jefe_90]

Happy first day of NESCAC! Here's to 6 weeks of great basketball and the unpredictability that this conference brings!

[D3BBALL]

Happy first day of NESCAC! Here's to 6 weeks of great basketball and the unpredictability that this conference brings!

Yes Lets GOOOOOOOOO

[ItsATuftSituation]

Predictions for the weekend:

Friday
Colby 72 Conn 59
Bates 65 Amherst 69
Williams 66 Wesleyan 65
Trinity 87 Middlebury 60
Tufts 77 Bowdoin 70

Saturday
Wesleyan 70 Middlebury 56
Tufts 80 Colby 71
Trinity 80 Williams 57
Conn 76 Bowdoin 81

Sunday
Bates 75 Hamilton 61

[toad22]

I agree with the D3 Datacast prediction of the Eph-Wes game as essentially an even bet. The Saturday game vs Trinity is predicted by everybody on this board as a runaway. I doubt that, and I would point out that in Trinitys' two best years ever, the Ephs have won two of three games. They fell asleep for 5 minutes of their one loss or they would have won that too. Big upset possible?

[NEhoops]

Every game tonight (except Tri/Mid) is a one possession game per the D3 Datacast score predictions. 

I think they will be close, with a few plays either way making a difference, along with home court. 

Also impressive to see that 5 of the 6 highest "game scores" (explanation below) are from the NESCAC matchups. 

Game score is an approximation of the game's 'excitement factor' given (1) the quality of the two teams, (2) how close the game is projected to be, and (3) the game's overall impact on NCAA tournament odds.

[nescac1]

Utterly disastrous half for Williams as Wesleyan puts the game away in the first half, I think the worst Little 3 performance for an entire half I can ever recall for Williams.  Wesleyan played very smart, mixing up the defenses with match-up zone, 1-3-1 press, and man, and Williams just seemed totally flummoxed the entire half and had no idea what to do with the constantly shifting defense. 

Wesleyan basically dared Williams to shoot it in the mid-range and the lack of really anyone who feels comfortable even just taking an open mid-range pull up hurt Williams.  The Ephs were also simply WAY off from 3 as a team, especially the team's ace shooter Yates, and Hansen was way off as well, so some of it was just an off day, the open 3's weren't even close for the most part.  First years EJ Sommers and Solomon Marshall were the only bright spot, the rest of the team was a mess.

Wesleyan was simply awesome and looked like an entirely different team offensively than they did vs. Amherst, tons of ball movement for open shots and hit some tough ones when they weren't open, played with a ton of energy and very crisp.  Wolinski was on fire for Wesleyan his shot is really pure - the Ephs simply don't have that guy who can pull up and nail it off the bounce like that - and Jaalan Watson, Pohlman, and Hauser also played great. 

Hey, the good news is, it gets a lot easier tomorrow against ... ughhh, never mind. 

[nescac1]

Welp, obviously a much better half for Williams as they got the huge halftime lead all the way down to  at one point before Wesleyan closed it out with some tremendous foul shooting through the entire game.  Yates, Hansen and Marshall (more on him in a bit) were as on fire from 3 in the second half as they were ice cold in the first, but you just can't have a collapse of that nature in the first half. 

For Williams, Hudson Hansen was absolutely heroic in the second half, playing with such massive effort when he certainly could have folded, his energy was amazing.  I just hope he (and the rest of the team!) didn't burn themselves out with this doomed comeback and have something in the tank for Trinity.  The biggest issue for the Eph offense was Jackson Rein barely seeming to even touch the ball, I assume Wesleyan was denying him opportunities but you can't have such a quiet day from your top guy and hope to win a game like this. He HAS to be more involved than that.

On the plus side, Solomon Marshall was a revelation and clearly looks like the Eph point guard of the future (and probably the present as injuries continue to mount at that position).  18 points in only 13 minutes, including 4-4 from 3, is pretty wild, he won't always shoot the ball like that, but he just seems obviously in command of the team when he has the ball, he's been looking more and more confident as a lead ball-handler even before today - also helps to have a PG who is a threat to shoot it! Combined with EJ Sommers, who seems like he's going to be a monster as so many shots that miss seem to just BARELY miss, and a strong soph class (which had a bit of an off day today but still had some moments, especially Dylan Shepherd), I do think the future is bright for Williams.  But other than Hansen, they got very little from their upperclassmen today and that's not going to cut it against a veteran team like Wesleyan.

For Wesleyan, Pohlman always kills Williams and I'll be glad to see him graduate, very crafty, heady player who has improved a lot each year, he's an all-league guy for sure.  Wolinski was on fire today, the Ephs just gave him too much room, you gotta be right up in his face and even then he'll make some but today it was too easy for him.  Hauser was also on fire today.  And those three on offense plus lighting it up from the line were enough to hang on. Credit to their first half D which was what won the game.   

The big surprise in day one in NESCAC is Amherst beating Bates with such ease.  Amherst seems to be on a major roll led by the emergence of dynamic FY point guard KJ Neville, who is tough to stay in front of and with good size to boot. 

Cuevas continues to light it up, he doesn't get enough help which is a shame because he's legit one of the best players in the country.