MBB: NESCAC

[D3BBALL]

I respect and appreciate that everyone here is rooting hard for Amherst to miss the tournament even though they have been essentially pencilled in for like four weeks.

I have Wesleyan over Trinity tomorrow. Think the crowds and the travel will make a difference in every game. Reilly just has his guys ready to play at all times and while Trinity is really good Wesleyan has the better backcourt and guards win you games like these.

Both have to get there first, but Trinity will be looking for payback.

[SpringSt7]

Pouye scoreless at half and yet Wesleyan leads just 24-23. Not the prettiest 20 minutes of basketball you've ever seen

[toad22]

At the half, Tufts is playing quite well, but Trinity is so disruptive. When they get live ball turnovers, they go right for the jugular.

[SpringSt7]

Henry Vetter with less than 5 seconds on the shot clock is just about a sure thing. Everyone knew that was going in

[nescac1]

Yeah that deep Vetter shot was a back-breaker for Tufts, he does rise to the occasion every time they really need him.  That game was pretty choppy overall. 

Tufts certainly missed Gyimesi, a different team with him, but what a heroic two-way effort from Bernstein to keep Tufts in that game, he was everywhere.  Hope he can come back for the tourney. 

Not sure what the Morakis issue is but his minutes limitation definitely hurts Tufts offensively.  Nieves is going to be all-league for sure in time.

Montclair State and Otterbein go down (Hood survives in OT the box score had an issue I guess) and now Amherst really has to root for no more big upsets of lock teams. 

[D3BBALL]

Henry Vetter with less than 5 seconds on the shot clock is just about a sure thing. Everyone knew that was going in

POY Stuff!!!!!

[Stickthe3]

I got Trinity over Wesleyan today, 74-70.

[NEhoops]

Definitely unfortunate regarding Gyimesi. That drops Tufts down a tier if he can't play going forward.

Speaking of tiers, I feel as though Bates will have a tough time winning two games. They have had too many extreme swings in the second halves of games to make them a consistent threat. Maybe they prove us wrong.

I feel like if two or three of the teams listed below win their league things will get tight for Amherst. Fingers crossed for them and the NESCAC getting five teams.

Still some potential bids thieves out there:

CC – Gettysburg (vs. Johns Hopkins who is probably safe)
CNE – Western New England (vs. Endicott who is a lock)
NEWMAC – Wheaton (vs. Babson who is probably safe)
SCIA – Chapman (vs. Redlands who is a lock)
SCAC – Concordia (vs. St. Thomas who is lock)

[nescac1]

Two potential bid thieves choked up late double digit leads last night, making things rosier for Amherst and the other last few in (WPI and Otterbein). Otterbein is currently just a smidge below Amherst.  If that sticks, and I think it very likely does (if Wesleyan and Westfield both lose perhaps not?), then Amherst is likely safe unless the bid thieves go 3/5. 

[NEhoops]

The teams listed below are the last five projected to get an large bid. Johns Hopkins controls their own destiny. It feels like this is over simplifying things, but if there is one bid thief Otterbein would be out, two would eliminate Otterbein and Amherst and so on. Open to more expert opinions.

Johns Hopkins   
UW-Platteville   
WPI   
Amherst   
Otterbein   

[ziggy]

The teams listed below are the last five projected to get an large bid. Johns Hopkins controls their own destiny. It feels like this is over simplifying things, but if there is one bid thief Otterbein would be out, two would eliminate Otterbein and Amherst and so on. Open to more expert opinions.

Johns Hopkins   
UW-Platteville   
WPI   
Amherst   
Otterbein   

The last team in if everything broke their way today would be Elmhurst. That means all of St. Thomas, Endicott, Redlands, Babson and Johns Hopkins winning.

Latest projections here: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

I will continue pointing people to the min/max NPI values seen in our simulations on the projections page as a good way to size teams up compared to each other. As of this morning, Amherst showed a max NPI value lower than the min NPI value for both Platteville and WPI so it is sure those two will stay ahead of Amherst in the pecking order. The same analysis gives Amherst the advantage over Otterbein and Elmhurst.

It's harder to tell where things stand if Johns Hopkins loses today as their max NPI is skewed by the fact they could win today. Min NPI values and overall at-large odds suggest Amherst would have a small advantage.

Tune in to a special D3 Datacast livestream at 1 pm ET as we break it all down: https://youtube.com/live/0sGNNoyvbrw

[Greek Tragedy]

It's my understanding that Franklin & Marshall vs Gettysburg is NOT a bid thief scenario. F&M is already considered an At-large and Gettysburg is the lower ranked AQ. If F&M wins, that actually opens up an At-large bid because Gettysburg won't get it. If F&M loses, it's status quo.

So, I guess you want F&M to win anyway, but we don't lose an At-large bid if they lose.

[NEhoops]

F&M lost in the semifinal and is projected to take an at-large spot.

If Gettysburg beats Johns Hopkins today, they would "steal" the AQ and JH would be on the at-large bubble.