FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Redtooth]

I saw Logan post that Wart got done a diservice, essentially treated like a 2 seed in their own quad. He might be right, but aside from NPI Wartburg just doesn't looke like a very elite 1 seed IMO given the stats above.

That said, the MIAC finds itself in 2 of the 3 toughest quadrants ever according to Logan's numbers. If we get anyone to the quarters or beyond we'll have earned it, great chance to reset the recent national narrative about the conference.

The success that SJU and Bethel have in this tournament will do very little to change the legitimate narrative that the MIAC has two very good programs that see very little competition other than their now once a year regular season meeting...prior to the playoffs.  It has been over 20 football seasons since a current MIAC team not named SJU or Bethel won the league title. 

The reality is most schools in the conference are waffling(at best) in their support and commitment toward building competitive football programs......words but very little definable action.  The recipe needed to build requires a level of institutional interest in doing so that just frankly doesn't exist beyond the two schools mentioned above.

The switch to playing everyone in conference also took away two additional competitive games (one NC and the conference title game) for both SJU and Bethel......that hurts nationally.

Both teams will be tested in their respective brackets and I hope both advance deep in the playoffs.

[faunch]

Listening to today's podcast, it sounds like the consensus is one and done for St John's. Can anyone let the team know in case they need motivation?

Johnnies are 3-3 in their last 3 post season appearances. They really need to make a prolonged run (2-3 wins) and maybe have a trip to the semifinals to stake a claim to being top a 5 team in D3.
The last 3-4 seasons they've been in that 10ish range (maybe even outside of that).

From my calculations the Johnnies are 10-8 in the playoffs since 2014 (9 appearances). Take out the 2018 (2-1) and 2019 (3-1) playoff runs the Johnnies are 5-6 (if I'm math-ing correctly) . I get that it's really difficult to win in November and December however the playoff record is what it is. Will having one "competitive" regular season game make it more difficult to to have success in the post season? At this time of the season it's about winning games.

FWIW...my pick is NCC to win the whole thing again. IMO they've got something really, really good going.

[art76]

Just finished listening to the podcast - had to work today. I started listening this morning before work and my wife pokes her head into my "den" and asks out loud, "What are you listening to?" I told her it was a parody song the the guys at D3 made up - they've done it before. She asks me if I know that the tune is from Wicked - I confess that I did not. We both laugh.

This playoff bracket is not too bad compared to some we've had in the past. BU has a tough draw, that's for sure. Old history is that BU has both lost and won playing North Central in the playoffs, so if it comes to that, it'll be a pretty good game - shoot, it might even be the "Stagg Bowl" game, depending on how things go from there.

Won't be able to get to any of the playoff games BU has at home because of work - kind of bummed by that. The last BU playoff game I was at was when they beat the Tommies at St. Thomas, like 8 to 10 years ago...

[faunch]

I saw Logan post that Wart got done a diservice, essentially treated like a 2 seed in their own quad. He might be right, but aside from NPI Wartburg just doesn't looke like a very elite 1 seed IMO given the stats above.

That said, the MIAC finds itself in 2 of the 3 toughest quadrants ever according to Logan's numbers. If we get anyone to the quarters or beyond we'll have earned it, great chance to reset the recent national narrative about the conference.

The success that SJU and Bethel have in this tournament will do very little to change the legitimate narrative that the MIAC has two very good programs that see very little competition other than their now once a year regular season meeting...prior to the playoffs.  It has been over 20 football seasons since a current MIAC team not named SJU or Bethel won the league title. 

The reality is most schools in the conference are waffling(at best) in their support and commitment toward building competitive football programs......words but very little definable action.  The recipe needed to build requires a level of institutional interest in doing so that just frankly doesn't exist beyond the two schools mentioned above.

The switch to playing everyone in conference also took away two additional competitive games (one NC and the conference title game) for both SJU and Bethel......that hurts nationally.

Both teams will be tested in their respective brackets and I hope both advance deep in the playoffs.

Do you think there's a chance that any MIAC schools drop football? Do schools like Hamline, Macalester, CSS benefit in enrollment numbers by having football programs? What other reasons are there for continuing their programs?

[Retired Old Rat]

For the SJU faithful:

Sorry if I'm rehashing something previously discussed, but genuinely curious about your opinions of the blue, alternate home jersey. I know it's one of the school colors, but it hasn't really had a place in the football uniform until recently.

I really like them as something different. Honestly, I think they are more attractive than the red jerseys. I'd like to see them at least once a year. We're not worn even once last year.

[Redtooth]

I saw Logan post that Wart got done a diservice, essentially treated like a 2 seed in their own quad. He might be right, but aside from NPI Wartburg just doesn't looke like a very elite 1 seed IMO given the stats above.

That said, the MIAC finds itself in 2 of the 3 toughest quadrants ever according to Logan's numbers. If we get anyone to the quarters or beyond we'll have earned it, great chance to reset the recent national narrative about the conference.

The success that SJU and Bethel have in this tournament will do very little to change the legitimate narrative that the MIAC has two very good programs that see very little competition other than their now once a year regular season meeting...prior to the playoffs.  It has been over 20 football seasons since a current MIAC team not named SJU or Bethel won the league title. 

The reality is most schools in the conference are waffling(at best) in their support and commitment toward building competitive football programs......words but very little definable action.  The recipe needed to build requires a level of institutional interest in doing so that just frankly doesn't exist beyond the two schools mentioned above.

The switch to playing everyone in conference also took away two additional competitive games (one NC and the conference title game) for both SJU and Bethel......that hurts nationally.

Both teams will be tested in their respective brackets and I hope both advance deep in the playoffs.

Do you think there's a chance that any MIAC schools drop football? Do schools like Hamline, Macalester, CSS benefit in enrollment numbers by having football programs? What other reasons are there for continuing their programs?

Honest answer; I believe there is more than a chance that one or more of the schools in the conference drop football......it's likely.  Some of the high brow academic types at a handful of these schools have been quietly pushing for the elimination of the "Neanderthal" activity that promotes violence on their campuses.  It's expensive and most of those schools frankly don't really get an enrollment bump off the 50-70 guys they have on roster. 

There was a push as part of the "remove UST" activity that fortunately didn't gain traction where a couple schools were attempting to institute roster caps on all teams...logic was if SJU, Bethel, Concordia (and UST at the time) couldn't keep more than 75-90 players those student athletes "naturally" would choose to attend one of the other schools......a sort of trickle down economics theory in football recruiting.

The major timing variable on decision(s) to be made regarding maintaining a football program for most of the "less successful" football schools will be dictated by two things; national playoff success from SJU and/or Bethel and whether or not either of those schools become wildly successful with NIL (which would widen an already large gap between the top and everyone else).

[hazzben]

Team stats for Bethel quad, listed in order of Logan's Predictive Rating. National Rank listed in order for each team:
Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D


1. North Central: 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
3. Bethel: 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
5. UWL: 70, 69, 62, 74, 89, 194, 72, 62, 108, 84, 65, 97, 46, 28, 97, 43, 149 - Ave: 82.9
7. UWP: 45, 53, 42, 122, 135, 112, 41, 84, 85, 56, 43, 41, 110, 91, 103, 13, 60 - Ave: 72.7
16. Hope: 10, 27, 2, 28, 78, 86, 15, 49, 12, 9, 14, 5, 36, 17, 44, 8, 31 - Ave: 27.7
26. Alma: 19, 103, 5, 191, 20, 71, 13, 125, 9, 66, 54, 10, 229, 21, 156, 63, 43 - Ave: 70.5
28. Hanover
31. Coe: 34, 29, 8, 73, 123, 26, 4, 24, 33, 102, 108, 41, 116, 68, 58, 183, 81 - Ave: 65.4
42. Grove City
116. Concordia (Wisc): 61, 64, 48, 61, 213, 22, 39, 40, 116, 87, 88, 71, 52, 66, 45, 135, 75 - Ave: 75.5

Noteworthy:
- UWL & UWP national averages are deflated playing in the WIAC, inverse for Concordia in the NACC.
- UWL is elite in no categories, pretty solid everywhere, except horrible in the red zone and bad in 4th Down D, slightly better throwing than running.
- UWP gives up yards but not as many pts, isn't great in redzone O or D, isn't great on 3rd down O or D.
- Hope is a very good team. No glaring weaknesses, elite and very balanced offense. Very good D. If the refs hadn't screwed them against Alma they'd be unbeaten and probably ranked in the Top 10. They deserve the home game.
- Alma has a very good offense and a not great D, teams pass all over them, they can't get off the field on 3rd down.
- Coe is better offensively than I thought, but redzone D is much better than Redzone O. Very effiecient passing, just average against the run. Bend don't break D.
- Concordia struggles to score in the redzone, average running the ball.

This is a really deep quad, I'd say expect some "upsets" but when there are this many quality teams I'm not sure what would qualify as an obvious upset. Guess I'd be surprised if Concordia beat Coe, but nothing else. I didn't look up stats for the Hanover or Grove City, they're solid teams but NCC awaits in Rd 2. The MIAA could make a statement by bouncing 1 if not 2 WIAC teams, neither would be a shocking result.

[Pat Coleman]

Art, glad you enjoyed it and always appreciate your support! Indeed, no one mourns the wicked!

[DuffMan]

No offense, Pat, as I support all the work you do, but I fast-forwarded right on through your song.  I am not a fan of musicals. 
Great podcast otherwise, though I'm only halfway through it.

[SagatagSam]

For the SJU faithful:

Sorry if I'm rehashing something previously discussed, but genuinely curious about your opinions of the blue, alternate home jersey. I know it's one of the school colors, but it hasn't really had a place in the football uniform until recently.

I really like them as something different. Honestly, I think they are more attractive than the red jerseys. I'd like to see them at least once a year. We're not worn even once last year.

The blue uniforms were a prominent part of the football jersey up through the 1930s and even into the 1940s. I like to see them once per year at most. They've got to be special. All of the Johnnies success (national championships) have come exclusively in the cardinal and white, and that tradition can't be casually displaced or discarded.

They've only worn the blues four times since they returned in 2021.

2025: vs. St. Scholastica
2024: None
2023: vs. St. Scholastica
2022: None
2021: vs. Martin Luther, vs. St. Scholastica

It could be fun if they used them on the road against someone like Concordia, St. Olaf, Augsburg, etc.--kind of like when USC and UCLA play.

[Pat Coleman]

No offense, Pat, as I support all the work you do, but I fast-forwarded right on through your song.  I am not a fan of musicals. 
Great podcast otherwise, though I'm only halfway through it.

Not offended. I get that it won't be everyone's bag.

[hazzben]

I actually got a chuckle, and then wondered if you had AI re-write the lyrics. Either way, impressive, I expected it to be like a 20 second bit and then the song just kept going. And as a girl dad, I was well aware it was a Wicked rip-off.

[Mister36]

Bethel vs NCC in the quarters, assuming chalk holds, is a round too early as well. The biggest issue is probably that the weakest 1 and 2 seed combo statistically also got the easiest quad.

Here's the deal though, if we really think Bethel and SJU are Top 5 teams, we should expect to play top teams in the tourney at some point. If Bethel is really Top 5 or Top 3 or Top 2 (pick your metric), then we should relish the chance to prove it on the field. This is a really young team. 15 new starters IIRC at the start of the year. You get better playing elite competition. We have two good, playoff experienced teams to beat before we even get a chance to measure up against the NCC dynasty. I hope we get to see that, but until then we get to geek out over some great football and it'll all get sorted on the field. Best time of the year IMO!!

I definitely am looking forward to how the team stacks up against NCC/UMU - I just wish it were UMU first  . I hope the team and staff is as well, while also not looking ahead too much. I want nothing more than to come out of Naperville or Alliance with a W. For both teams each-other would be the toughest team they've played yet.

[Pat Coleman]

I actually got a chuckle, and then wondered if you had AI re-write the lyrics. Either way, impressive, I expected it to be like a 20 second bit and then the song just kept going. And as a girl dad, I was well aware it was a Wicked rip-off.

AI doesn't know nearly enough about D-III football to do that. I've been proudly writing parodies for the podcast since before anyone had access to ChatGPT, I'll have you know! 

[hazzben]

Bethel vs NCC in the quarters, assuming chalk holds, is a round too early as well. The biggest issue is probably that the weakest 1 and 2 seed combo statistically also got the easiest quad.

Here's the deal though, if we really think Bethel and SJU are Top 5 teams, we should expect to play top teams in the tourney at some point. If Bethel is really Top 5 or Top 3 or Top 2 (pick your metric), then we should relish the chance to prove it on the field. This is a really young team. 15 new starters IIRC at the start of the year. You get better playing elite competition. We have two good, playoff experienced teams to beat before we even get a chance to measure up against the NCC dynasty. I hope we get to see that, but until then we get to geek out over some great football and it'll all get sorted on the field. Best time of the year IMO!!

I definitely am looking forward to how the team stacks up against NCC/UMU - I just wish it were UMU first  . I hope the team and staff is as well, while also not looking ahead too much. I want nothing more than to come out of Naperville or Alliance with a W. For both teams each-other would be the toughest team they've played yet.

The more I look at our pod (or SJU's), "on paper" means very little. Bethel will have to win two very competitive games to make the quarters. Unless the MIAC is better than it appears, this will be the best we've faced since September. I'm hoping it shows that we are that good, and maybe Carleton, GAC, and the Cobbers are betting than we thought. We get to find out very soon.