FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[OzJohnnie]

At least 7 at-large teams ranked higher in NPI than Bethel all have to lose at least one game in the next two weeks for BU to have a shot at the play-offs. Not gonna say never, but it doesn't bode well for the Royals this year.

I fed a bunch of data into Claude, gave some prompts (rather insightful prompts, if I do say so myself) and set off Opus 5.5 on max to create you a death watch.  Who knows if it's right, but here you go.  I'll update after each weekend to see who you need to die.

Games to watch

Nov. 7, Baldwin Wallace at Mount Union: cheer for BW.
Nov. 7, Heidelberg at Capital: cheer for Capital.
Nov. 14, CNU at Salisbury: cheer for CNU.
Nov. 14, Denison at John Carroll: cheer for Denison.

Every game: cheer against Eau Claire, Brockport, F&M, Ursinus, Case Western, Benedictine, Mary Hardin-Baylor, UW-River Falls, Merchant Marine and Trinity (Conn.).

[art76]

At least 7 at-large teams ranked higher in NPI than Bethel all have to lose at least one game in the next two weeks for BU to have a shot at the play-offs. Not gonna say never, but it doesn't bode well for the Royals this year.

I fed a bunch of data into Claude, gave some prompts (rather insightful prompts, if I do say so myself) and set off Opus 5.5 on max to create you a death watch.  Who knows if it's right, but here you go.  I'll update after each weekend to see who you need to die.

Games to watch

Nov. 7, Baldwin Wallace at Mount Union: cheer for BW.
Nov. 7, Heidelberg at Capital: cheer for Capital.
Nov. 14, CNU at Salisbury: cheer for CNU.
Nov. 14, Denison at John Carroll: cheer for Denison.

Every game: cheer against Eau Claire, Brockport, F&M, Ursinus, Case Western, Benedictine, Mary Hardin-Baylor, UW-River Falls, Merchant Marine and Trinity (Conn.).

Thanx, Oz! - But what a tangled web we weave? It's still close enough to Halloween, right?

[OzJohnnie]

Thanx, Oz! - But what a tangled web we weave? It's still close enough to Halloween, right?

I was surprised that there are 14 teams that can help you get your eight spots.  It's like having a bunch of outs after the flop in Texas hold 'em, and you'll see your outs drop as each week/card comes along.  The other thing you need to cheer for is that no conference champions are upset.  The model assumes the conferences finish with the champs they have.  A conference with an upset finish could put another team in front of you.

[art76]

I was surprised that there are 14 teams that can help you get your eight spots.  It's like having a bunch of outs after the flop in Texas hold 'em, and you'll see your outs drop as each week/card comes along.  The other thing you need to cheer for is that no conference champions are upset.  The model assumes the conferences finish with the champs they have.  A conference with an upset finish could put another team in front of you.

Saw this and wanted to share: https://d3fbhuddle.com/at-large-guide-w9.html

This morning's podcast has BU still on the bubble, but there are a lot of moving pieces for it to happen.

[faunch]

Johnnies will struggle to get past their 2nd playoff game again. The possession at end of the first half was a joke. And why was the referee wearing gloves today. Clearly his furnace had been on for the past month.

Man, your team is undefeated, looks great, and this is where you're at.   

I'm just saying that in late November/ early December, 2 interceptions, 2 fg instead of touchdowns and a missed fg and 5/12 on 3td down is a recipe for having weekends free for Christmas shopping. You get easy with that when you have a good defense against a slightly better than anemic offense.
Again i hope I'm wrong.

[GoldandBlueBU]

Johnnies will struggle to get past their 2nd playoff game again. The possession at end of the first half was a joke. And why was the referee wearing gloves today. Clearly his furnace had been on for the past month.

Man, your team is undefeated, looks great, and this is where you're at.   

I'm just saying that in late November/ early December, 2 interceptions, 2 fg instead of touchdowns and a missed fg and 5/12 on 3td down is a recipe for having weekends free for Christmas shopping. You get easy with that when you have a good defense against a slightly better than anemic offense.
Again i hope I'm wrong.

I hear ya.  IMO, some of that is a symptom of the lopsided conference.   I'm sure the coaches do all they can to get the team focused and performing regardless of who they are playing, but everyone on SJU knows in their mind that for almost all of their conference games, they could play their third stringers and still likely win.  I think it's hard to be super sharp and show up 100% on every play when that reality exists.

[GoldandBlueBU]

I realize that it's in the spirit of what Division III stands for and represents that the playoffs are all about inclusion, but it's also disappointing knowing that teams such as Bethel, who are capable of beating most teams that will earn a bid, are left out.

Yes, disappointing that they could have scheduled Crown and won 100-0, and be firmly in the playoffs, but because they wanted to better the program and play a strong team, chances are they will be out.  Oh well, I'm still glad they pushed themselves by scheduling NC.

[Mister36]

I realize that it's in the spirit of what Division III stands for and represents that the playoffs are all about inclusion, but it's also disappointing knowing that teams such as Bethel, who are capable of beating most teams that will earn a bid, are left out.

Yes, disappointing that they could have scheduled Crown and won 100-0, and be firmly in the playoffs, but because they wanted to better the program and play a strong team, chances are they will be out.  Oh well, I'm still glad they pushed themselves by scheduling NC.

Especially since according to Hansen Ratings, they are #5...just happened to play #1 and #4

[hazzben]

Cobbers are definitely on the upswing. That's good for the MIAC, I'd love to see GAC get to this level too. Their WR's were as big a group of D3 pass catchers as I can remember. Both teams had success through the air. The difference in the game was BU run game and run D. Duling did a good job sticking with the run.

I couldn't make sense of how the Cobbers handled their QB rotation. Then again, the fact there wasn't much difference between the two maybe explains why they run a rotation.

Hoping the Cobber WR is ok who slid into the endzone bleachers on his TD catch. I was sitting about 2 feet away from where he hit. The metal corner of the bleacher took him right in the abdomen. Had to chuckle, Terry ran over and as the trainer was looking him over he says "hey, we got six!!!" ... at the time I think the kid was just trying to figure out if he still had a spleen or not 

[faunch]

SJU is averaging 443 passing yards per game. My question to those that have watched a number of games is how many of those passing yards come on the push or shovel passes? Even though they count as passing yards it really is more like a running play.

I've also heard from a few loyal SJU followers that feel like opponents have had more success slowing down the Johnnies on the shovel play. Another observation is that multiple players are being used as the receiver on those plays. I'm wondering if there will be any wrinkles put into those plays once the playoffs start?

Thoughts...comments?

[hazzben]

SJU is averaging 443 passing yards per game. My question to those that have watched a number of games is how many of those passing yards come on the push or shovel passes? Even though they count as passing yards it really is more like a running play.

I've also heard from a few loyal SJU followers that feel like opponents have had more success slowing down the Johnnies on the shovel play. Another observation is that multiple players are being used as the receiver on those plays. I'm wondering if there will be any wrinkles put into those plays once the playoffs start?

Thoughts...comments?

SJU had a solid gameplan vs. Bethel. Quick 3 step drops on underneath routes to WR's in space. Bethel pressure didn't have time to get home. Sounds like that was when they really dialed up the shovel passes for the first time too.

I think teams are adjusting to that. The bigger issue for SJU IMO is that outside of the TE, the WR's are all really small. 5'9 / 5'10 type guys. There isn't a true, scary deep threat or All Region type RB. Completion percentages will be through the roof with that, but NCC's secondary would be tough to beat this way as an example. Both lines are playing really well and the D is tuned up. But that to me is the biggest area of concern for a Stagg run. If the short passes get locked down, is there enough genuine running game?

[Robert Zimmerman]

https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-college-football-bethel-royals-concordia-cobbers-st-johns-johnnies-st-thomas-tommies-miac/601908600

Reusse with a nice article about Concordia football being competitive with Bethel and SJU again.

[repete]

I think the kid was just trying to figure out if he still had a spleen or not 

Ha! High school buddy got home from practice and didn't feel well. Crashed on living room couch. Folks were headed out the door when they gave him a second look.

Was soon in ambulance to Cities. Docs said if folks had left he would likely have never gotten up.

Took the spleen. Later that fall we went to look at schools. Sat on hill at SJU and when someone passed the schnapps he passed because of no spleen. I sipped and ended up in Collegeville. Cause or correlation?

Fifty-five years later he is going strong and retired with West Point degree.

Had my grandson on that same hill for Cobber game. No schnapps.

[sjusection105]

SJU is averaging 443 passing yards per game. My question to those that have watched a number of games is how many of those passing yards come on the push or shovel passes? Even though they count as passing yards it really is more like a running play.

I've also heard from a few loyal SJU followers that feel like opponents have had more success slowing down the Johnnies on the shovel play. Another observation is that multiple players are being used as the receiver on those plays. I'm wondering if there will be any wrinkles put into those plays once the playoffs start?

Thoughts...comments?

The shovel pass appears to be doing two things: 1.) increasing pass completion percentage. 2.) acting as a proxy for running plays IMO. There may very well be wrinkles added to that which will not show up on film until Round 2 of playoffs

[MadRedFan]

SJU is averaging 443 passing yards per game. My question to those that have watched a number of games is how many of those passing yards come on the push or shovel passes? Even though they count as passing yards it really is more like a running play.

I've also heard from a few loyal SJU followers that feel like opponents have had more success slowing down the Johnnies on the shovel play. Another observation is that multiple players are being used as the receiver on those plays. I'm wondering if there will be any wrinkles put into those plays once the playoffs start?

Thoughts...comments?

Bohmert is credited in the season stats with 40 receptions for 268 yards, an average of 39 yards in 8 games. Wyatt McCabe 20 catches for 179 yards, 25 yards per game. Cedric Melvin, 13 catches for 79 yards, 12/game.  Others have a few more, not all that many.  And some of those are surely "traditional" passes, screens or "flat" passes, etc. Feeney's averaging 38 completions/game, 400 yards/game. So I would say the impact on the stats is minimal. The guy would be averaging 350 yards per game and not 400 w/o the "shovel".