MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

*Carthage	11-3	@ WC	@ CU
*Illinois Wesleyan	11-3	@ NPU	@ AC
*Elmhurst	9-5	vs. CU	vs. NPU
Carroll	7-7	@ EC	vs. CC
North Park	7-7	vs. IWU	@ EC
Wheaton	6-8	vs. CC	vs. MU
Augustana	5-9	@ NCC	vs. IWU
Millikin	5-10	---	@ WC
eNorth Central	3-12	vs. AC	---

[GusD]

Elmhurst goes into the hangar this evening and comes away with a 66-57 win at the expense of their fellow DuPage songbirds. The Bluejays collected 15 and 8 from Vinnie Adjahoungbeta, 15 as well from Luke Smith, and 13 from Sebastian Blachut, while Aidyn Boone did the dirty work with 13 boards and four steals. James Bullock had a whale of a game in the losing cause for North Central with 20 points, 13 rebounds, and five blocks, and Alejandro Diaz chipped in a dozen points, but the offense just wasn't there for the Cardinals, who were an anemic 35% from the field and 17% (3-18) from downtown.

In an otherwise generally anemic season for NCC, the highlight of last evening's clash may well have been a halftime ceremony honoring the 2005-2006 Cardinal squad who won the very first CCIW Conference Tournament championship defeating IWU 51-49 in a game played at Augustana.
Among those present were Ray Vicario, Adam Teising, Dean Prince, Adam Krumtinger, Dan Walton, Anthony Simmons, Josh Corso, and assistant coach Nate Riley.

[markerickson]

True, Greg.  I think Kolden is the top CCIW guard and Soren is definitely a top three forward.  The two did match up on D yesterday.  Kolden is known as a scorer, but he plays D very well as evidenced by steals, disruptions, rebounds, and intensity.

[iwu70]

IWU rises to #13, Carthage re-enters top 25 at #22.  Week 11 poll.

'70

[Gregory Sager]

True, Greg.  I think Kolden is the top CCIW guard and Soren is definitely a top three forward.  The two did match up on D yesterday.  Kolden is known as a scorer, but he plays D very well as evidenced by steals, disruptions, rebounds, and intensity.

... and, incidentally, he was just named CCIW POW for the third time this season and the fifth time in his NPU career.

https://cciw.org/news/2026/2/16/mens-basketball-vikings-vanlandingham-tabbed-cciw-student-athlete-of-the-week.aspx

Kolden was also named to the D3 Team of the Week:

https://athletics.northpark.edu/news/2026/2/16/mens-basketball-vanlandingham-appears-again-on-d3hoops-com-national-team-of-the-week.aspx

(Sorry that I'm not linking to D3hoops.com for this, Pat, but Tyler's press release included a clip from Wednesday's North Park @ Augustana game that shows KV scoring the game-winning layup, so even though it's your award I had to go with the NPU press release this time.)

[iwu70]

Congrats to Vanlandingham!   (See Greg, I can even spell it!) 

Should be a great game tomorrow. 

IWU'70

[lmitzel]

Finally got this wrapped up yesterday afternoon, but here are the CCIW Tournament scenarios with two rounds of games left to go.

With no skin in the game, I for one would either prefer one of the two scenarios that nets Elmhurst hosting rights or the roughly 15% chance Millikin sneaks into the field. (Unfortunately these are mutually exclusive.)

And then here's the updated spreadsheet with all the scenarios.

[Gregory Sager]

Congrats to Vanlandingham!  (See Greg, I can even spell it!) 

[Gregory Sager]

Finally got this wrapped up yesterday afternoon, but here are the CCIW Tournament scenarios with two rounds of games left to go.

Thanks, Lucas. We've been passing your work around the NPU athletic department. Your extended series of tweets explaining the scenarios is too good not to share here for those who aren't on X:

I can confirm that the tiebreaker for the 1 seed largely favors IWU.

Official odds:
IWU: 58.6%
CAR: 40.6%

The math-inclined among you will look at that and go "Wait, that's not 100%, what gives?"

Hear me out:
-ELM wins vs CRL and vs NPU
-IWU loses @ NPU, vs AUG
-CAR loses @ WHE, @ CRL
-WHE wins vs MIL on Saturday

That means we have a 3-way tie at 11-5, as well as a 3-way tie for 4th at 8-8. Assuming I did this correctly and we break that tie first, CAR falls to 3rd, then the fact that NCC beat IWU way back in December comes into play and puts ELM ahead.

This has a 0.8% chance. Elmhurst winning out would also give them a slight shot at the 2 seed and a bye, but the odds favor Carthage here.

CAR: 55.5%
IWU: 38.3%
ELM: 6.2%

The most likely scenario for the Jays though, given they're two games back, is the 3 seed. Though if they lose, other teams have a shot for that spot.

ELM: 80.5%
CRL: 12.5%
CAR: 3.9%
IWU: 3.1%

Carroll's path to the 3 seed requires them to win out, and they also need North Park to beat Elmhurst on Saturday.

The Carthage/IWU odds are for if one/both lose twice and ELM gets to 11-5.
Now we get into where it gets a little messy.

The 4 seed is the farthest ELM can fall, but a bunch of other teams are more likely to slot in here.

NPU: 38.3%
CRL: 34.8%
WHE: 13.3%
ELM: 12.5%
AUG: 1.2%

Augie's path to a home quarterfinal requires them to win out, but they would need to be in a tie with North Park and Carroll at 7-9. If Wheaton joins the tie at 7-9, Augie would still get the 4 seed.

The 5 seed is fairly wide open, though Augie remains a long shot here.

NPU: 35.9%
CRL: 31.3%
WHE: 27.3%
AUG: 5.5%

Now for the part [redacted] has been wondering about: Millikin is still alive for the 6 seed!

In order for the Big Blue to have a meaningful Saturday, they need Carthage to take care of business against Wheaton on Wednesday. If WHE wins, MIL is out.

Your odds for the 6 seed:

WHE: 28.5%
NPU: 21.2%
CRL: 18.4%
MIL: 16.4%
AUG: 15.2%

If you care less about seeds and more about "How likely are we to get in," these are total tournament odds:

CRL: 96.9%
NPU: 95.7%
WHE: 69.1%
AUG: 21.9%
MIL: 16.4%

[Patrick Coleman]

https://athletics.northpark.edu/news/2026/2/16/mens-basketball-vanlandingham-appears-again-on-d3hoops-com-national-team-of-the-week.aspx

(Sorry that I'm not linking to D3hoops.com for this, Pat, but Tyler's press release included a clip from Wednesday's North Park @ Augustana game that shows KV scoring the game-winning layup, so even though it's your award I had to go with the NPU press release this time.)

Fair. Of course, a post can contain two links, so here's the link to the TOW in full as well:
https://d3hoops.com/awards/tow/2025-26/week12

[Gregory Sager]

Lucas, I just have one correction regarding the unlikely scenario of Elmhurst tying for the title with Carthage and IWU. As you said, the top tie has to be broken before the pack tie, so the top three have to be measured against the NPU/WC/CU pack tie cumulatively. Note the language in the CCIW's tiebreaking procedures:

Men's & Women's Basketball
Seeding will be determined by regular season finish. Ties are broken by the following:

1. Head-to-head competition.
2. Record against team(s) above the tie beginning with the highest ranked team.
3. Record vs. team or teams in 3rd place. If still tied, go to the next place for determination, et cetera.
4. Road record against conference schools.
5. Record in their last seven conference games.
6. The point spread of the tied teams' head-to head competition.
7. Coin toss

(Emphasis mine.)

The plural "teams" indicates that the tie has to be broken by whatever exists in the next spot down the standings ladder, whether it's one team or two teams ... or three, as in this case.

Combined record of each of the top three vs. the NPU/WC/CU pack tie:

IWU 5-1 (swept WC and CU, lost @ NPU)
CC 4-2 (swept NPU, lost @ WC and @ CU)
EU 4-2 (swept NPU, lost @ WC and @ CU)

Illinois Wesleyan gets the #1 seed. The tiebreaker then moves down to #7 Augustana:

CC 2-0
EU 2-0

Stil tied. So we move down to #8 Millikin:

CC 1-1
EU 1-1

Still tied. So we move down to the bottom to #9 NCC.

CC 2-0
EU 2-0

Still tied. So we move on to tiebreaker #4, which is CCIW road record:

CC 4-4
EU 4-4

No help there. On we go to tiebreaker #5, record in last seven CCIW games:

CC 5-2
EU 6-1

Elmhurst gets the #2 seed and the bye, while Carthage gets stuck hosting a quarterfinal on Tuesday evening.

With that tie broken, we move on to the pack tie. North Park gets the #4 seed by virtue of being the only team of the three to have beaten #1 Illinois Wesleyan. Wheaton and Carroll both were swept by IWU, split with #2 Elmhurst, split with #3 Carthage, and split with #4 North Park. So you have to go below the tie again to the third tiebreaker and break that remaining tie by using the bottom tier of the CCIW. Wheaton and Carroll both split with #7 Augie, both swept #8 Millikin, and both split with #9 North Central. So on we go to the fourth tiebreaker, CCIW road record. Wheaton won two CCIW road games -- an artifact of the Thunder's inverted split with North Central -- while Carroll won only one, so Wheaton gets the #5 seed and a Tuesday date at the crackerbox, while Carroll gets the #6 seed and a trip down I-94 to Kenosha on Tuesday.

I hope I got that right. Check my work, please!

[lmitzel]

Lucas, I just have one correction regarding the unlikely scenario of Elmhurst tying for the title with Carthage and IWU. As you said, the top tie has to be broken before the pack tie, so the top three have to be measured against the NPU/WC/CU pack tie cumulatively. Note the language in the CCIW's tiebreaking procedures:

Men's & Women's Basketball
Seeding will be determined by regular season finish. Ties are broken by the following:

1. Head-to-head competition.
2. Record against team(s) above the tie beginning with the highest ranked team.
3. Record vs. team or teams in 3rd place. If still tied, go to the next place for determination, et cetera.
4. Road record against conference schools.
5. Record in their last seven conference games.
6. The point spread of the tied teams' head-to head competition.
7. Coin toss

(Emphasis mine.)

The plural "teams" indicates that the tie has to be broken by whatever exists in the next spot down the standings ladder, whether it's one team or two teams ... or three, as in this case.

Combined record of each of the top three vs. the NPU/WC/CU pack tie:

IWU 5-1 (swept WC and CU, lost @ NPU)
CC 4-2 (swept NPU, lost @ WC and @ CU)
EU 4-2 (swept NPU, lost @ WC and @ CU)

Illinois Wesleyan gets the #1 seed. The tiebreaker then moves down to #7 Augustana:

CC 2-0
EU 2-0

Stil tied. So we move down to #8 Millikin:

CC 1-1
EU 1-1

Still tied. So we move down to the bottom to #9 NCC.

CC 2-0
EU 2-0

Still tied. So we move on to tiebreaker #4, which is CCIW road record:

CC 4-4
EU 4-4

No help there. On we go to tiebreaker #5, record in last seven CCIW games:

CC 5-2
EU 6-1

Elmhurst gets the #2 seed and the bye, while Carthage gets stuck hosting a quarterfinal on Tuesday evening.

With that tie broken, we move on to the pack tie. North Park gets the #4 seed by virtue of being the only team of the three to have beaten #1 Illinois Wesleyan. Wheaton and Carroll both were swept by IWU, split with #2 Elmhurst, split with #3 Carthage, and split with #4 North Park. So you have to go below the tie again to the third tiebreaker and break that remaining tie by using the bottom tier of the CCIW. Wheaton and Carroll both split with #7 Augie, both swept #8 Millikin, and both split with #9 North Central. So on we go to the fourth tiebreaker, CCIW road record. Wheaton won two CCIW road games -- an artifact of the Thunder's inverted split with North Central -- while Carroll won only one, so Wheaton gets the #5 seed and a Tuesday date at the crackerbox, while Carroll gets the #6 seed and a trip down I-94 to Kenosha on Tuesday.

I hope I got that right. Check my work, please!

I reran this, and you are correct!

So the only caveat to this (and the only reason I know this is from talking with Bob Quillman who passed along a note from IWU's Sports Information department) is that the tiebreaker sheet on the CCIW website (that is not only over a decade old but is also kinda hidden now) is that it operates under the old eight-team format, so the "last seven" rule is actually "last eight". Ultimately this doesn't matter as Elmhurst is still a game up in the second half and gets the #2 seed.

I had run into the "road record" tie a couple times with Wheaton/Carroll, and I knew Wheaton had the edge, but I think I had really only taken a cursory glance at it with the knowledge of "Road Carroll is a completely different team from Home Carroll" and hadn't realized that it was only a one game difference.

[Gregory Sager]

Road Carroll is a completely different team from Home Carroll

Road Carroll is still a pretty tough outfit, though. In their seven CCIW road contests to date, the Pioneers have a cumulative scoring margin of only -15, or barely over -2 per game. All seven of their CCIW games away from Van Male, including their lone win at Millikin last Saturday, were single-digit affairs. It's as though Road Carroll transforms into North Central, or last week's version of Augustana, every time that it gets on the bus.

[Gregory Sager]

So the only caveat to this (and the only reason I know this is from talking with Bob Quillman who passed along a note from IWU's Sports Information department) is that the tiebreaker sheet on the CCIW website (that is not only over a decade old but is also kinda hidden now) is that it operates under the old eight-team format, so the "last seven" rule is actually "last eight".

This makes sense -- base the rule upon an entire round-robin rather than just a random number of games. And it stands to reason that the fifth tiebreaker will become "Record in their last nine games" when the CCIW becomes a ten-team league in 2027-28.

[lmitzel]

So the only caveat to this (and the only reason I know this is from talking with Bob Quillman who passed along a note from IWU's Sports Information department) is that the tiebreaker sheet on the CCIW website (that is not only over a decade old but is also kinda hidden now) is that it operates under the old eight-team format, so the "last seven" rule is actually "last eight".

This makes sense -- base the rule upon an entire round-robin rather than just a random number of games. And it stands to reason that the fifth tiebreaker will become "Record in their last nine games" when the CCIW becomes a ten-team league in 2027-28.

Yeah, it makes sense to me too, it's just weird that it's not updated on the CCIW's website, especially since you used to be able to click into the web page with the tiebreakers, and now it's kinda hidden along with being 12 years old and obviously now out of date.