FB: Liberty League

[Machiavelli]

Alright, it's Thursday. Let the work procrastination begin:

Mach's Final Regular Season Predictions:

Hit another 4 for 4 last week landing me at 41-6 on the season. Let's see if we can continue the streak!

Ithaca - 13
Cortland - 28
Do I think Ithaca has a puncher's chance? Yes. Do I think they pull off the upset? No.

St. Lawrence - 28
Rochester - 20
This one is tough-ish to pick. Rochester is on a 4 game slide with only 14 points against the LL top 4. St. Lawrence had a nice win against Buff St. last week. I'm going with what feels like and upset here at Roch-vegas. St. Lawrence in a close one.

The Battle for the Shoes
Union - 10
RPI - 35
RPI won the LL last week, so there's a chance for a letdown since this game means a little less theoretically. But this is the shoes game! I think a W really solidifies their feel-good story of a season. Maybe a tight first half and RPI pulls away later. Weather could be a slight factor with some snow in the forecast, but I like the boys in Red at home and some Busch Light drinking from the shoes.

Hobart - 56
Buff St - 10
The Pumpkinheads had a tough middle of the season, but I think they are a pretty solid team. I like a big win here, and followed up with a nice Bowl win the next week. Hobart finishes with a strong 7-3 record.

Let's go Red!!! F Union!

[Machiavelli]

How NESCAC-ish is it that they finally grace D3 with their presence in the postseason and could actually get 3 teams in the tournament because of the incestual nature of their league? I guess we have to anticipate 2-3 teams out of there most seasons from here on out. How are they even included on Massey ratings at this point when they have a closed conference-only schedule? I'm baffled.

[Patrick Coleman]

Massey has always included them and that is particularly silly, for sure.

At least it isn't any of the further east NESCAC teams who are in contention. The Maine schools, especially, would pose a challenge in bracketing.

[Jonny Utah]

Adding on Pat, Where are you (or Greg Thomas in his predictions) getting the QWB and QWB multiplier numbers?  From Massey?

How in the F@#$$ could the Nescac possibly get 3 teams in the playoffs? How is the QWB and QWB multiplier determined for this conference and do we have those numbers? And those numbers cant be relative to the rest of the country?  I'm assuming the selection committee can and will account for the lack of comparative scheduling metrics for the nescac and everyone else.

[Patrick Coleman]

QWB and all of that is from the NPI.

Since the NPI is based almost entirely on winning percentage and only a small amount on strength of schedule, it favors almost all 1-loss teams. This is just like it was in 2024 when three PAC teams went 9-1 and played no non-conference games. They all got in. It's a particular flaw in how the formula was set up (the "dials" is how it's referred to). The NESCAC is exactly an average conference because it plays no non-conference games.

The selection committee cannot account or adjust for anything. The formula is the formula. There's no human intervention except in the offseason every two years when they adjust the dials.

[Machiavelli]

The crazy thing in year 1 for the NESCAC is no one really knows how they will do. They should've realistically gotten  a single AQ in year 1 to see what happens. Maybe they are awesome. Maybe they are a step above Worcester State. I guess we'll finally find out.

[Jonny Utah]

QWB and all of that is from the NPI.

Since the NPI is based almost entirely on winning percentage and only a small amount on strength of schedule, it favors almost all 1-loss teams. This is just like it was in 2024 when three PAC teams went 9-1 and played no non-conference games. They all got in. It's a particular flaw in how the formula was set up (the "dials" is how it's referred to). The NESCAC is exactly an average conference because it plays no non-conference games.

The selection committee cannot account or adjust for anything. The formula is the formula. There's no human intervention except in the offseason every two years when they adjust the dials.

Ok so just a broken system for this year. 

Will the NPI account for last years games (lets say Cortland loses to Ithaca and beats Amherst 50-0 in the first/second round of the playoffs). 

[Patrick Coleman]

The crazy thing in year 1 for the NESCAC is no one really knows how they will do. They should've realistically gotten  a single AQ in year 1 to see what happens. Maybe they are awesome. Maybe they are a step above Worcester State. I guess we'll finally find out.

They're probably not just a step above Worcester State.

If they get three teams in, hey, at least we'll finally get some data. There's no accounting in the Division III rules for artificially shutting a conference out from at-large bids, although the conference could have chosen to do so as part of its condition for joining the 21st century in football.

[Patrick Coleman]

Will the NPI account for last years games (lets say Cortland loses to Ithaca and beats Amherst 50-0 in the first/second round of the playoffs). 

No. NPI is this year's games only.

[Machiavelli]

Trinity beat an 0-8 Bowdoin 10-3 and a 4-4 Middlebury 26-23. This whole thing is wild to me. Amherst has an average win margin of 7.4 in their 7 wins and are all but a lock to get in. I think Trinity SHOULD knock Wesleyan out, but man, what a sh!t show it will be if 3 get in.

[Patrick Coleman]

Perhaps. Or perhaps not.

[Jonny Utah]

Trinity beat an 0-8 Bowdoin 10-3 and a 4-4 Middlebury 26-23. This whole thing is wild to me. Amherst has an average win margin of 7.4 in their 7 wins and are all but a lock to get in. I think Trinity SHOULD knock Wesleyan out, but man, what a sh!t show it will be if 3 get in.

Yea but that 0-8 Bowdoin is the same as beating 2-7 Georgia Tech. 

But I think Pat hinted to it in his last post.  The NCAA can just tell the NESCAC they aren't getting a bid next year unless they change things (non conference games/adding teams or whatever)

[Patrick Coleman]

Trinity beat an 0-8 Bowdoin 10-3 and a 4-4 Middlebury 26-23. This whole thing is wild to me. Amherst has an average win margin of 7.4 in their 7 wins and are all but a lock to get in. I think Trinity SHOULD knock Wesleyan out, but man, what a sh!t show it will be if 3 get in.

Yea but that 0-8 Bowdoin is the same as beating 2-7 Georgia Tech. 

But I think Pat hinted to it in his last post.  The NCAA can just tell the NESCAC they aren't getting a bid next year unless they change things (non conference games/adding teams or whatever)

No, I really said the opposite. There's no mechanism in the rules for doing what you suggest.

[Jonny Utah]

Trinity beat an 0-8 Bowdoin 10-3 and a 4-4 Middlebury 26-23. This whole thing is wild to me. Amherst has an average win margin of 7.4 in their 7 wins and are all but a lock to get in. I think Trinity SHOULD knock Wesleyan out, but man, what a sh!t show it will be if 3 get in.

Yea but that 0-8 Bowdoin is the same as beating 2-7 Georgia Tech. 

But I think Pat hinted to it in his last post.  The NCAA can just tell the NESCAC they aren't getting a bid next year unless they change things (non conference games/adding teams or whatever)

No, I really said the opposite. There's no mechanism in the rules for doing what you suggest.

Ah ok I misread that.  So we have a mockery of the system now with one league impacting the NPI by not having any non conference games. 

[Patrick Coleman]

Trinity beat an 0-8 Bowdoin 10-3 and a 4-4 Middlebury 26-23. This whole thing is wild to me. Amherst has an average win margin of 7.4 in their 7 wins and are all but a lock to get in. I think Trinity SHOULD knock Wesleyan out, but man, what a sh!t show it will be if 3 get in.

Yea but that 0-8 Bowdoin is the same as beating 2-7 Georgia Tech. 

But I think Pat hinted to it in his last post.  The NCAA can just tell the NESCAC they aren't getting a bid next year unless they change things (non conference games/adding teams or whatever)

No, I really said the opposite. There's no mechanism in the rules for doing what you suggest.

Ah ok I misread that.  So we have a mockery of the system now with one league impacting the NPI by not having any non conference games. 

Like it was with the PAC in 2024.