FB: Liberty League

[IC798891]

Buffalo State would be plucky if they were even mediocre along the lines of pass protection and pass rush

[Bartman]

Hobart seems to be totally in control of the game 21-0 against the Yellowjackets half way through the 3rd quarter, until their QB, Jeremy Weiss ,is knocked out on a roughing the passer penalty. Yellowjackets come roaring back and tie it up 21-21 sending the game into OT. Hobart scores first with Tru Styles surprising U of R with a 15 yard TD pass. Yellowjackets stopped by the Statesmen Defense on 4th and 2 to give Hobart a 28-21 OT victory. Congrats to the Yellowjackets for coming back and to the Statesmen to hang in for the win in OT. Fifteen years in a row for the Pumpkinseeds over the Yellowjackets, but the streak was almost over. EJ Taylor 196 yards on the day.

[IC798891]

Ithaca just looks so...uninspired...to me.

Everything about this game just was nothing more than "Buff State's lines massively lack talent" Buff State gives up a ton of sacks, gave up a bunch today, and Amir Cameron spent 75% of the game on his back or running for his life. On the other side, Ithaca had 328 yards rushing.

But the rest?

A continued lack of a downfield passing game — don't be fooled by the 49 yard reception, it was a (nicely designed) throwback screen that was all YAC? Disheartening. Ithaca had just 70 passing yards on 11 completions outside of that one play.

Losing the turnover battle to Buff State (and it would have been worse, but the officials erroneously ruled a Buff State DB landed out of bounds after a pick)? Insane.

Having a defensive stop — in this case a pick 6 — stripped away because of a personal foul penalty on the opposing quarterback for the second week in a row? Inexcusable.

I think this is what Ithaca is now. They beat the teams they're obviously better than in predictable ways, but that lack of multiple ways to beat people dooms them against better teams.

Despite the win, I'm not confident in these next two games, and predict another 6-4 finish

[UfanBill]

It wasn't spectacular but Union's 34-13 victory over Hilbert served the purpose. The Garnet have their destiny in their own hands and needed to manage this miss-match with the Hawks carefully. Use your starters to secure the win. Get your young players experience and don't get anybody hurt...The first teamers played only in the first half and seemingly remained unscathed and with a 24-0 lead the second and third strings played the entire second half. All 6 quarterbacks on the roster got snaps and 13 different receivers caught passes. Standout QB Patch Flanagan only ran the ball twice but still managed 32 yards rushing. He also had 2 TD passes. Another standout was freshman RB Justin Singh who used his formidable speed to gain 72 yards on only 10 carries in his first action of the season. He was impressive...In all 91 players got game experience.     

[Bartman]

RPI still getting 5 votes in the D3.com poll. Last year Hobart ended the season with 26 votes(theoretically 28th), but that took a 42-35 comeback loss in the second round of the playoffs against Susquehanna(eventually finished #4). The top LL teams need to ramp up the recruiting efforts.

[unionpalooza]

RPI still getting 5 votes in the D3.com poll. Last year Hobart ended the season with 26 votes(theoretically 28th), but that took a 42-35 comeback loss in the second round of the playoffs against Susquehanna(eventually finished #4). The top LL teams need to ramp up the recruiting efforts.

I'm not too worried about the LL teams.  Hobart, Ithaca and Union are all very young, especially relative to prior years - more than anything I think we are seeing a recruiting dip mixed with an above-average number of transfers out from the immediate post-COVID recruiting cycles.  (Not sure about RPI.)  Union is an interesting example; from the '21 and '22 recruiting cycles, there are two WRs currently playing meaningful FCS ball and two DBs playing meaningful D2 ball; second-team All-American OT Matt McCorkle did not play anywhere after his junior season.  Drach definitely has Union recruiting back on the right path. I presume Ithaca and Hobart are also rebuilding talent at the younger end of the roster.

As for the poll, I have come to accept that the voters as a whole just have zero interest or capacity to understand the Northeast schools.  The voters can't seem to resist the schools that defeat a bunch of winless teams and then have a "good" three-TD loss to Mt. Union.  (Looking at you, Baldwin Wallace. Hey, maybe voters are giving them a little credit for their last playoff win... in 2003.)  If you really want to impress, you can lose by only five scores to NCC and then put up 3 TD in garbage time against Mt. Union to make that loss look "close," and then, like Wheaton, find yourself ranked #18.

[Machiavelli]

Big week! Let's go!

Mach's Spot-On Week 10 Predictions:

Hobart - 54
Hilbert - 6
Bart by a million.

Union - 24
Rochester - 12
Rochester could have a fighting chance, but I don't think it will happen. Though it wouldn't make me mad.

Ithaca - 13
RPI - 41
There, I said it. I think RPI takes the Ithaca boys out to the woodshed.

St. Lawrence - 21
Buff St - 6
If a bear sh!ts in the woods, does anyone smell it?

Let's do this!!!

[Bartman]

These predictions are not as much fun, when your team is out of it, but here goes:

Hobart 49.      Hilbert      7.      Statesmen pad the stats, Hawks wings are grounded

Union. 24.      Rochester.  21.    Dutchmen need a last minute drive from Patch

Ithaca 10.      RPI.        24.    Bombers throw no bombs as Sliderulers calculate the methodical win

SLU    28.      Buffalo St.  10.    The Larries dominate the Bengals


These results would set up a great Shoes game for the final week.

[Caz Bombers]

so what happens if Ithaca beats RPI, Union beats Rochester, and RPI beats Union?

unbreakable 3-way tie at 6-1. Best NPI ranking gets AQ?

[Jersey42]

so what happens if Ithaca beats RPI, Union beats Rochester, and RPI beats Union?

unbreakable 3-way tie at 6-1. Best NPI ranking gets AQ?

I asked this a while back, and no one seems to know.  If your scenario happens, and the best NPI gets the NCAA bid, then it all comes down to Cortaca. According to one NPI calculator, Ithaca should have the best NPI if they beat Cortland.  Otherwise RPI should have the better NPI.

I have found nothing in any public LL documents about a three way tie. "The Liberty League champion will be the team with the best winning percentage in league competition. If the teams have the same records, the tiebreaker will be head-to-head competition."

Check out the NPI season simulator d3fbhuddle.com/npi.html

[UfanBill]

I found this...Liberty League football three-way tiebreaker...Be aware this is AI generated and not necessarily LL gospel. We've had these discussions before but I can't find it in my search of these boards. (available only back to 2005) I seem to recall that won/lost percentage of opponents finishing over .500 may well be critical. If that's the case Union's game against 0-10? Morrisville would be discarded and the Garnet's likely .850 would prevail. It's unknown whether the new NPI rankings are officially part of the LL tiebreaker.

1.Combined head-to-head record: Compare the winning percentages of the three tied teams against each other. The team with the highest winning percentage in these games is ranked highest.
2.Record against common conference opponents: If head-to-head results don't break the tie, compare the records of the three teams against all common conference opponents they played.
3.Record against next-highest common opponent: Compare the records of the three teams against the next-highest-ranked common opponent in the conference standings, and continue down the standings if necessary.
4.Cumulative winning percentage of all conference opponents: Compare the cumulative conference winning percentage of all opponents each of the tied teams played. This is essentially a strength of schedule metric based on conference play.
5.Other tiebreakers: If the tie still isn't broken, the league will use additional tiebreakers, which may include criteria like winning percentage in non-league competition, winning percentage against all opponents with an end-of-season record of .500 or above, and potentially a random draw if all else fails

[unionpalooza]

I also recall that the secondary tiebreaker is winning percentage over winning teams.  So, in an Ithaca beats RPI and RPI beats Union scenario, it's RPI if Ithaca loses to Cortland (because of RPI's OOC win over a Brockport team that will finish with a winning record).  If IC beats Cortland, they have the same WP against >.500 teams as RPI, and IC takes the head to head.

So for Union - beat RPI and they're in, regardless of what happens at Rochester. Lose to RPI and they're out.

RPI - beat IC and Union, or lose to IC but beat Union plus an IC loss at Cortland. 

IC - beat RPI and Cortland, plus a Union loss to RPI. 

There is no scenario in which a second LL team gets an at large bud. 

[Jersey42]

I also recall that the secondary tiebreaker is winning percentage over winning teams.  So, in an Ithaca beats RPI and RPI beats Union scenario, it's RPI if Ithaca loses to Cortland (because of RPI's OOC win over a Brockport team that will finish with a winning record).  If IC beats Cortland, they have the same WP against >.500 teams as RPI, and IC takes the head to head.

So for Union - beat RPI and they're in, regardless of what happens at Rochester. Lose to RPI and they're out.

RPI - beat IC and Union, or lose to IC but beat Union plus an IC loss at Cortland. 

IC - beat RPI and Cortland, plus a Union loss to RPI. 

There is no scenario in which a second LL team gets an at large bud.

The "In the D3FB Huddle" podcast released yesterday talked about all of this. They promised to post a written summary.  They confused me a little bit on how Alfred's final two games could impact this, but their conclusion seems to be exactly what you presented.

You can hear what they said beginning at about 52:45. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1a9ZmXk1Z1/

[Machiavelli]

I guess the national panel isn't as excited for the RPI/Ithaca game as I am. I get it's not gonna be the 'Game of the Week', but it didn't even get an 'under the radar' callout? Pssssh...Ya'll gonna miss a good one. Have fun with Alfred vs. Alfred St. and Coast Guard vs Springfield, though. I'm sure those will both be bangers. LOL.

Bring on some Ruck wings and Blue Cheeshhhh....

[unionpalooza]

I guess the national panel isn't as excited for the RPI/Ithaca game as I am. I get it's not gonna be the 'Game of the Week', but it didn't even get an 'under the radar' callout? Pssssh...Ya'll gonna miss a good one. Have fun with Alfred vs. Alfred St. and Coast Guard vs Springfield, though. I'm sure those will both be bangers. LOL.

Bring on some Ruck wings and Blue Cheeshhhh....

C'mon man. Everyone knows that the latest WIAC battle between UW-Bratwurst's 49-year old QB and the stifling defensive front of UW-Walleye is all that matters.