FB: Liberty League

[Bartman]

I guess the national panel isn't as excited for the RPI/Ithaca game as I am. I get it's not gonna be the 'Game of the Week', but it didn't even get an 'under the radar' callout? Pssssh...Ya'll gonna miss a good one. Have fun with Alfred vs. Alfred St. and Coast Guard vs Springfield, though. I'm sure those will both be bangers. LOL.

Bring on some Ruck wings and Blue Cheeshhhh....

C'mon man. Everyone knows that the latest WIAC battle between UW-Bratwurst's 49-year old QB and the stifling defensive front of UW-Walleye is all that matters.

Winner. Post of the year......

Agree,  Gotta love the UW Bratwurst and UW Walleye......, ya, sure

[Jonny Utah]

The RPI 2 point conversion was nothing more than an adrenaline rush decision after a blocked punt TD. It was dumb. Had they just kicked the PAT, I have zero doubt they would have won. But they didn't, and here we are. May not matter in reality, but losing matters and losing sucks. And they shouldn't lose to an inferior team. Great game either way, but crumby ending.

Zero doubt? Really?

Yeah. Zero.

Mach's Spot-On Week 10 Predictions:

Ithaca - 13
RPI - 41
There, I said it. I think RPI takes the Ithaca boys out to the woodshed.

Did you have any doubt with this pick?

HEY OHHHHHH

Anyway points scored doesn't really mean much.  The most important W:
TOP:
ITHACA: 34:16   
RPI:    25:44

Fun fact, Ithaca is 1-8 in TOP this year with only one win vs RPI. 

[Bartman]

Well RPI gets knocked out of Receiving Votes in the poll, which is understandable. When was the last time no LL team received votes in the poll? Ithaca needs to beat Cortland to save the league's reputation   

[Jonny Utah]

Well RPI gets knocked out of Receiving Votes in the poll, which is understandable. When was the last time no LL team received votes in the poll? Ithaca needs to beat Cortland to save the league's reputation   

Yea just not many good OCC wins this year and with this new scheduling agreement its probably not getting any better.

[Bartman]

'Anyway points scored doesn't really mean much.  The most important W:
TOP:
ITHACA: 34:16   
RPI:    25:44"

TOP prediction tool went away with the Single Wing formation.....and I loved the Single Wing when Princeton used it to kick Rutgers butt every year......however... I think Hilbert might be the TOP king of the LL

[ICGrad]

Well RPI gets knocked out of Receiving Votes in the poll, which is understandable. When was the last time no LL team received votes in the poll? Ithaca needs to beat Cortland to save the league's reputation   

Yea just not many good OCC wins this year and with this new scheduling agreement its probably not getting any better.

Year-over-year Strength of schedules of the top 4 Liberty League teams:

Hobart - 2024: 61 / 2025: 75
Ithaca - 2024: 37 / 2025: 117
RPI - 2024: 42 / 2025: 122
Union - 2024: 56 / 2025: 102

Of the 4, Hobart still has a game against Buff St, so they will take a hit, whereas the other 3 should all see their SoS rise (Union/RPI play each other, Ithaca plays Cortland). Hobart essentially swapped out a game against Keystone (ranked 210 in 2024) with Hilbert (ranked 232), explaining why their SoS hit was so mild.

But the Hilbert effect is real...

(source: Massey)

[ICGrad]

Anyway points scored doesn't really mean much.  The most important W:
TOP:
ITHACA: 34:16   
RPI:    25:44

Fun fact, Ithaca is 1-8 in TOP this year with only one win vs RPI. 

Interestingly, Ithaca's running game wasn't all that efficient against RPI; the averaged only 2.8 yards/rush. But they stuck with it as a compliment to their passing game, running the ball 42 times. Very effective overall strategy.

RPI ran the ball for almost 7 yards/rush. Crazy.

[Machiavelli]

The RPI 2 point conversion was nothing more than an adrenaline rush decision after a blocked punt TD. It was dumb. Had they just kicked the PAT, I have zero doubt they would have won. But they didn't, and here we are. May not matter in reality, but losing matters and losing sucks. And they shouldn't lose to an inferior team. Great game either way, but crumby ending.

Zero doubt? Really?

Yeah. Zero.

Mach's Spot-On Week 10 Predictions:

Ithaca - 13
RPI - 41
There, I said it. I think RPI takes the Ithaca boys out to the woodshed.

Did you have any doubt with this pick?

HEY OHHHHHH

Anyway points scored doesn't really mean much.  The most important W:
TOP:
ITHACA: 34:16   
RPI:    25:44

Fun fact, Ithaca is 1-8 in TOP this year with only one win vs RPI.

Fine, I was making picks with my heart. I told you before the game, JU, Ithaca's QB scared the shizz out of me. And he was good. He just has a knack for big plays and keeping drives alive, and that's huge in these types of games. RPI's Defense just couldn't get off the field.

Still steaming about the 2pt conversion. As far as I'm concerned, if you wanna go for 2, line up and call a 2pt conversion play. Faking the kick and tossing the ball to a corner of the endzone with fingers crossed, it was just kinda gross. I had a bird's eye view for that play and it was very obvious and wasn't even really close to being successful. I'd rather they lined up and just called a non-fake play. But they should've just kicked it, played defense, maybe kick a field goal, or take it to OT.

Now, in typical LL fashion, it's all gray going into the last week and only Union controls their own destiny.

[Jonny Utah]

The RPI 2 point conversion was nothing more than an adrenaline rush decision after a blocked punt TD. It was dumb. Had they just kicked the PAT, I have zero doubt they would have won. But they didn't, and here we are. May not matter in reality, but losing matters and losing sucks. And they shouldn't lose to an inferior team. Great game either way, but crumby ending.

Zero doubt? Really?

Yeah. Zero.

Mach's Spot-On Week 10 Predictions:

Ithaca - 13
RPI - 41
There, I said it. I think RPI takes the Ithaca boys out to the woodshed.

Did you have any doubt with this pick?

HEY OHHHHHH

Anyway points scored doesn't really mean much.  The most important W:
TOP:
ITHACA: 34:16   
RPI:    25:44

Fun fact, Ithaca is 1-8 in TOP this year with only one win vs RPI.

Fine, I was making picks with my heart. I told you before the game, JU, Ithaca's QB scared the shizz out of me. And he was good. He just has a knack for big plays and keeping drives alive, and that's huge in these types of games. RPI's Defense just couldn't get off the field.

Still steaming about the 2pt conversion. As far as I'm concerned, if you wanna go for 2, line up and call a 2pt conversion play. Faking the kick and tossing the ball to a corner of the endzone with fingers crossed, it was just kinda gross. I had a bird's eye view for that play and it was very obvious and wasn't even really close to being successful. I'd rather they lined up and just called a non-fake play. But they should've just kicked it, played defense, maybe kick a field goal, or take it to OT.

Now, in typical LL fashion, it's all gray going into the last week and only Union controls their own destiny.

Yea kind of like I said above if you fake an XP in a situation like that you better either have something special planned or know the defense isn't going to cover it properly.  That was the old standard JV football TE/Wing pause and hit the corner fake.  Like you said they would have had a much better chance with a planned 2 point play that I'm sure they have.

[IC798891]

Agreed here. Quit being cute. If you're going for two, run a play

The logic, I'm guessing, was that since Ithaca had already blocked a kick (Well, it looked like it got blocked) that they would sell out to block another one, and be caught overcommit. Credit to Ithaca for being prepared.

[Jonny Utah]

Well RPI gets knocked out of Receiving Votes in the poll, which is understandable. When was the last time no LL team received votes in the poll? Ithaca needs to beat Cortland to save the league's reputation   

Yea just not many good OCC wins this year and with this new scheduling agreement its probably not getting any better.

Year-over-year Strength of schedules of the top 4 Liberty League teams:

Hobart - 2024: 61 / 2025: 75
Ithaca - 2024: 37 / 2025: 117
RPI - 2024: 42 / 2025: 122
Union - 2024: 56 / 2025: 102

Of the 4, Hobart still has a game against Buff St, so they will take a hit, whereas the other 3 should all see their SoS rise (Union/RPI play each other, Ithaca plays Cortland). Hobart essentially swapped out a game against Keystone (ranked 210 in 2024) with Hilbert (ranked 232), explaining why their SoS hit was so mild.

But the Hilbert effect is real...

(source: Massey)

Reading this again and the Hilbert effect may sound like a joke but it is 100% impacting LL and E8 teams ability for the 13 at large bids.

[unionpalooza]

Well RPI gets knocked out of Receiving Votes in the poll, which is understandable. When was the last time no LL team received votes in the poll? Ithaca needs to beat Cortland to save the league's reputation   

Yea just not many good OCC wins this year and with this new scheduling agreement its probably not getting any better.

Year-over-year Strength of schedules of the top 4 Liberty League teams:

Hobart - 2024: 61 / 2025: 75
Ithaca - 2024: 37 / 2025: 117
RPI - 2024: 42 / 2025: 122
Union - 2024: 56 / 2025: 102

Of the 4, Hobart still has a game against Buff St, so they will take a hit, whereas the other 3 should all see their SoS rise (Union/RPI play each other, Ithaca plays Cortland). Hobart essentially swapped out a game against Keystone (ranked 210 in 2024) with Hilbert (ranked 232), explaining why their SoS hit was so mild.

But the Hilbert effect is real...

(source: Massey)

Reading this again and the Hilbert effect may sound like a joke but it is 100% impacting LL and E8 teams ability for the 13 at large bids.

Indeed, let's talk about how bad the E8 scheduling agreement and acceptance of Hilbert has been for the LL's playoff hopes.  NPI basically looks at winning percentage and SOS, except than (i) SOS = your opponent's average NPI and (ii) wins against an opponent that's so bad that including the win would reduce your NPI are omitted, subject to a minimum wins requirement of 5.  (So, if a number of your wins are over an especially bad team, you might have to include one or more to meet that requirement, reducing your NPI.)

With the introduction of Hilbert, the LL now has not one but two teams with preposterously bad NPIs, such that they will always reduce one's NPI. Hilbert's NPI is 18.9, third worst in the country; Buff State's is 31.6, 223/ out of 241.  (For context, both Hartwick and SLU have NPI's of ~40.5.) 

That means every LL team is guaranteed two conference games that will automatically get thrown out (b/c those wins would reduce NPI if included); thus, each of Union, RPI and Ithaca are effectively 5-2 for NPI purposes (subject to a little adjustment for home/away effects under the NPI formula), not 7-2.  And winning percentage is 40% of the NPI calculation.

A secondary effect is that, because you can only omit so many bad "wins" (because of the minimum requirement of 5), being guaranteed two conference wins you'll have to omit means that you may have to end up including other bad wins to meet the minimum, thereby reducing your NPI.

The effects are even worse if you have to play a terrible OOC game thanks to the E8 agreement, like MoVille, who has an NPI of 24.4 - 10th worst in the country.  That's Union situation; the conference changes and scheduling agreement meant they play three of the 20 worst teams in the country this year by NPI. Even if the beat RPI, they will be treated as a 5-2 team b/c all three of those "bad wins" drop, and they have to include their "bad" win over SLU even though that reduces their NPI. They would end up a 9 or 10 in the playoffs. 

If Ithaca had beat a hypothetically decent team like SJF or Merchant Marine instead of Hilbert, that's almost certainly enough to push them into a Pool C bid this year if they beat Cortland but RPI loses.

[ICGrad]

Yea just not many good OCC wins this year and with this new scheduling agreement its probably not getting any better.

Indeed, let's talk about how bad the E8 scheduling agreement and acceptance of Hilbert has been for the LL's playoff hopes.  ....
[/quote]

Excellent analysis. Thank you.

One other impact I would add, a tertiary effect if you will: The inclusion of Hilbert on the schedule of every LL team also lowers the SoS of every single other LL team on your schedule.

Not only does Ithaca take the SoS hit of having Hilbert on their schedule, but they also now have a game against SoS 122 RPI (who in 2024 were an SoS 42 team) and SoS 102 Union (who last season were SoS 56). It's a real clusterf-.

[unionpalooza]

Yea just not many good OCC wins this year and with this new scheduling agreement its probably not getting any better.

Indeed, let's talk about how bad the E8 scheduling agreement and acceptance of Hilbert has been for the LL's playoff hopes.  ....

Excellent analysis. Thank you.

One other impact I would add, a tertiary effect if you will: The inclusion of Hilbert on the schedule of every LL team also lowers the SoS of every single other LL team on your schedule.

Not only does Ithaca take the SoS hit of having Hilbert on their schedule, but they also now have a game against SoS 122 RPI (who in 2024 were an SoS 42 team) and SoS 102 Union (who last season were SoS 56). It's a real clusterf-.
[/quote]

Absolutely.  I'd feel less grumpy about Hilbert if they showed any commitment to giving their players the resources they need to be competitive.  But they haven't - no stadium, only a handful of coaches, they travel with only 40 guys (presumably to save bus costs), etc.  I only watched the Union game, but those kids played their butts off, never gave up, and it's a tragedy their school doesn't seem interested in much more than milking tuition checks from the roster.

[ICGrad]

(I realize that was an oversimplification, but I can't edit. RPI's SoS doesn't directly reflect on Ithaca's overall SoS in quite that way, though their lowered SoS does results in a lowered overall ranking, which does hurt Ithaca. And round and round)