FB: Liberty League

[HSCTiger74]

  This has been an interesting discussion, and I understand the frustration, but without knowing the details of every D3 conference isn't it safe to say that most of them have their own Hilbert who will drag down their NPI.

[ICGrad]

This has been an interesting discussion, and I understand the frustration, but without knowing the details of every D3 conference isn't it safe to say that most of them have their own Hilbert who will drag down their NPI.

But do they have 2? (A Hilbert AND a Buff State). And are they associate, football-only members?

[Jonny Utah]

I get it.  We need to support the league and every team in it.  Thats what leagues are for or should be for in d3. Hilbert is an upstate school who wants to start a new program and the need opponents so let's help them out.  But as I'm typing this I'm still wondering if there is something else at play here...why take them in the first place?  How did that help the league?  And academics means nothing, if swathmore wanted to bring that guy with the candle back and join the league they would impact pool c the same.

The LL has the 3rd worst team in the country and the 15th worst team in the country in terms of NPI. Only two other conferences have two teams in the bottom 20.  And 10 years ago this wouldn't have mattered, but it does now. The LL should be better than that.  Maybe we should be angry at NPI or those who supported this system instead of Hilbert and Buff State. and ICgrad it looks like Ithaca was close to making the pool C bid if they didn't beat the **** out of two of the worst teams in the country. this expanded system is great for pool c and those teams who didn't win their league right? 

And IC I don't want to blame anyone for Ithaca not making the playoffs but themselves and losing to Union but we can't hide our heads in the sand here. Any league with two teams in the bottom 20 NPI are seriously hurting their chances of pool c bids.

HSCtiger you are probably right about other teams but the LL just happened to have two of those teams in the league this year. 

[HSCTiger74]

This has been an interesting discussion, and I understand the frustration, but without knowing the details of every D3 conference isn't it safe to say that most of them have their own Hilbert who will drag down their NPI.

But do they have 2? (A Hilbert AND a Buff State). And are they associate, football-only members?

   Well, in the case of my own ODAC we have Averett (five conference wins in four seasons) at 216 and Gallaudet (a new associate member, outscored 401 to 95 in conference) at 220. Could substituting two middling OOC games for them have raised an 8-2 Shenandoah into playoff range? I doubt it, but who knows. All you can do is win your games and hope you don't get hosed by some computer algorithm.

[UfanBill]

I get it.  We need to support the league and every team in it.  Thats what leagues are for or should be for in d3. Hilbert is an upstate school who wants to start a new program and the need opponents so let's help them out.  But as I'm typing this I'm still wondering if there is something else at play here...why take them in the first place? How did that help the league?  And academics means nothing, if swathmore wanted to bring that guy with the candle back and join the league they would impact pool c the same.

The LL has the 3rd worst team in the country and the 15th worst team in the country in terms of NPI. Only two other conferences have two teams in the bottom 20.  And 10 years ago this wouldn't have mattered, but it does now. The LL should be better than that.  Maybe we should be angry at NPI or those who supported this system instead of Hilbert and Buff State. and ICgrad it looks like Ithaca was close to making the pool C bid if they didn't beat the **** out of two of the worst teams in the country. this expanded system is great for pool c and those teams who didn't win their league right? 

And IC I don't want to blame anyone for Ithaca not making the playoffs but themselves and losing to Union but we can't hide our heads in the sand here. Any league with two teams in the bottom 20 NPI are seriously hurting their chances of pool c bids.

HSCtiger you are probably right about other teams but the LL just happened to have two of those teams in the league this year. 

Utah...I'm surprised you don't remember this. Hilbert played 2 seasons as an independent and mixed in games against both LL and E8 opponents. Union,Hobart, Buffalo St and St John Fisher all scheduled them as did Gallaudet and even Endicott. They seemed schedule ambitious. Next they likely would have followed nearby upstart Alfred St. to the ECFL until that league fell apart. With few other options they then begged their way into the E8 in 2024 BUT the seemingly innocuous LL/E8 scheduling agreement sent them to us to "even things up".... This didn't even up anything from the LL perspective and consider this... Union has a puzzling low NPI seeding, 37th out of 40, based mostly on their SOS completely out of their own control. Their "wins" included games over Hilbert 0-10, Buff St 1-9 and lest we forget one of their E8 crossovers Morrisville 0-10. Unfortunate

[ICGrad]

Union has a puzzling low NPI seeding, 37th out of 40, based mostly on their SOS completely out of their own control. Their "wins" included games over Hilbert 0-10, Buff St 1-9 and lest we forget one of their E8 crossovers Morrisville 0-10. Unfortunate

And Union's reward for being an AQ from one of the worst conferences in the country?* No bye, a first round road game against a Pool C team, and a second round game against Mount Union.

I imagine IC798891 would argue that that's what they deserve after opening their season with two lopsided OOC losses, and there's absolutely some truth to that. Still, a pretty brutal playoff draw nonetheless.

* According to Massey, the LL was 22nd out of 34 conferences this season, down from 5th last season (with a similar OOC record) and 4th in 2023.

[Bartman]

In the old days, without the NPI, I think Ithaca would have made the tournament based on beating a strong OOC in Cortland and finishing second for the LL title. I don't think having Hilbert or Buffalo State would have mattered. But now, the entire league is scrutinized with the NPI algorithim and each member's rating is downgraded. I feel badly for Hilbert who is just trying to build a program, but it made no sense to let them in the LL until they spent a few years as an independent building their program.
Muhlenberg is a fair first opponent for Union and I wish them luck getting to experience playing in Alliance. It sucks for Ithaca after such a dramatic win.I noticed they did not apply for an ECAC bid, it might have been nice for the team to have a post season game. It looks like RPI will be selected for an ECAC Bowl game. Hobart and Rochester applied but I'm not seeing them getting selected, although I think they would compete well. 

[ICGrad]

It looks like RPI will be selected for an ECAC Bowl game. Hobart and Rochester applied but I'm not seeing them getting selected, although I think they would compete well.

Too bad Rochester laid such an egg in their final game against St Lawrence. With the exception of that game and their loss to RPI, they played solid, competitive football all season, with single-score losses to Hobart, Union, and Ithaca. A nice season for them, overall.

ETA: re: your point about the NPI hurting Ithaca this season. I believe in the pre-NPI days, SoS played a critical role in securing a Pool C bid. Last season, Ithaca's SoS was 37, this season it was 74. So my guess is even without the NPI, Ithaca wouldn't be getting a bid this season, all else being equal.

[unionpalooza]

I was surprised by the Rochester score, too. They are hard to figure out, but I think they are getting better at a fundamental program level (depth, OL/DL line quality, etc.) each year.  One year they have to finally break out, I guess?

Excited that my Dutchmen get to play another week.  Muhlenberg's a fun first round matchup, and should be a good game between two pretty similar teams.  Heck of a job by Drach and the team leadership to immediately get the program back on track. 

[Ice Bear]

I was surprised by the Rochester score, too. They are hard to figure out, but I think they are getting better at a fundamental program level (depth, OL/DL line quality, etc.) each year.  One year they have to finally break out, I guess?

Excited that my Dutchmen get to play another week.  Muhlenberg's a fun first round matchup, and should be a good game between two pretty similar teams.  Heck of a job by Drach and the team leadership to immediately get the program back on track. 

I feel the same way Union. Very excited that the Dutch get another week and another trip to the NCAA's. That's a great accomplishment, especially for a team whose had the coaching changes they've had and a non winning season just a year ago.

BTW, I absolutely loved the Shoes game. Both teams played hard and I KNEW RPI was going to come back. That team didn't quit and fought right until the end. Both teams made some great plays and some mistakes but boy it was exciting. I have a lot of respect for RPI, their program, and their fan base. Where I was sitting we were all having a great time an enjoying the top notch student athletes out their competing their asses off.

I don't quite know what to expect this weekend at Muhlenburg. I'd like to think it's a winnable game against another really good program, one who I'd give the edge to come Saturday based on my gut...which means ****ing nothing. I'm just very excited.

[Bartman]

LL gets two teams in the ECAC Bowls, RPI and Hobart. RPI plays an improved St.John Fisher and Hobart plays Marine Maritime down in NYC. I'm hoping we can both get wins. At least the Seniors get one more game.

[unionpalooza]

It's interesting to see the standard post-bracket outrage at the NCAA's deviations from seeding and other principles to minimize travel costs and avoid flights.  I actually have a fair amount of sympathy for the NCAA. 

First, we're talking about a 40-team national tournament in a team sport with travel rosters of 60 guys.  Another way to think about it is gratitude that the NCAA is paying for flights at all.

Second, the NCAA has to grapple with two competing priorities.  One is to put the "best" teams in the tourney, seeded fairly.  The other is to limit costs.  Expanding the tournament makes this tension much more pronounced, because it makes it much more likely that geographical bubbles teams on the west coast and in Texas and the deep south will be included in the field. 

I looked back, and in the old days of regional brackets and a 16-team bracket, there was no more than one or two flights a year.  Occasionally a CA or TX school would qualify, and have to fly as long as it was in.  Even the semi-final matchups were almost always non-flights, because they paired East/South and Midwest/West. 

So, every time we expand the field, we make this problem worse.  And when we focus on getting the "best teams" in, regardless of region, we create more geographic disparities that lead to the same scheduling dilemmas (increased costs v. greater bracket fidelity).

I continue to think that the better way to reconcile the tension is to go back to four regional brackets, with the best ten teams in that region qualifying.  Sure, you'll still have to fly island teams, but you would get almost none of the other bracket shenanigans we see.  Yes, it's possible that would mean that Ithaca gets in over Coe when NPI or some other metric says Coe is better, but I don't care - anyone who tells you they can reliably discern that one of those schools is "better" than other (based on NPI, some other metric, "eye test") is full of crap; there aren't enough actual data points.  Within a region, where there is plenty of interplay and common competition, it's a lot easier to compare an Ithaca to a Utica to a Curry. 

I also see lots of complaining that the "two best teams" (Mount Union and NCC) would meet in the semis.  Again, who cares?  The goal is to crown a winner, not scientifically determine the first, second, third-best teams, etc.  Same thing when it comes to who hosts in the semis.

In the end, I think the NFL is a good comparison.  Every year, because of the AFC/NFC bracketing, we know we are not getting the best X teams in the league in the playoffs, and no thinks that's an injustice.  Similarly, it is only very rarely the case that the Super Bowl is played between the two "best" teams."  Again, no one thinks it's the end of the world.  The problem with D3 is we are pretending that we are trying to pick the best teams and seed them accordingly but then we're trying to save money, and so we make a mess of things.  I'd rather we divide all of D3F into four regions, put the best ten teams in each region (after accounting for AQs) in an honest bracket, and let the four winners square off in preordained pairs.  It would be at least as cost effective, and it would be objective and honest.

[FourthAndShort]

I'll start by saying that I think you accurately portrayed the tension that we always see, and put forth a fair and logical solution (regional brackets) to limit the tension. For what it's worth, I also agree that the NCAA is doing the best they can do with the constraints they have.

Now... I'll vent why I don't want the regional brackets!! Now I'm not an old head and can't say anything with the wisdom of the landscape several decades ago. But I feel that the changes over the past several years has done a good job of introducing matchups that are unique. The 40 team field that is mathematically chosen, the protected top 8 seeds, the "goal" to avoid 1st/2nd rematches of regular season games, and a somewhat accepting NCAA that there has to be a number of flights to just merely complete the bracket, has all come together and created what appears to be a higher likelihood of teams in unique geographies playing each other. There will always be the urge of the committee to bring it back to regions when bracketing, but now there are a number of guidelines that they are admittedly trying to follow, and that has created more spontaneous possibilities.

I personally believe that this is enjoyable to followers of D3 and gives a better ability to showcase the parity (or lack thereof) across D3. It seems fun that if a conference plays and wins a solid OOC schedule, it can get multiple teams in the playoffs and try to wreak havoc, even if it ultimately ends in a loss to a superpower. Last year we got to see Susquehanna play St. John's and play Bethel and we got to see Hopkins play MHB. That must have been fun for region 2 more broadly.

If we reverted to regional brackets, to your point, I think it solves a lot of the problems that people complain about and could possibly be a better style to have the "right" champion, but in my mind it would be a big step backward for the D3 experience.

[Ice Bear]

Two solid posts fellas, nice job.

[Machiavelli]

I was travelling and away all weekend so I haven't had the chance to recap the weekend. I listened to the first half of Cortaca, then the 4th quarter during the Shoes halftime. I think 1 thing that hurts the LL/E8 in rankings is that these rivalry games between top teams in Upstate NY seem to always be a coin flip, no matter how much better on paper one team is than the other. Any of the big 4 in the LL can always go either way. It's a different brand of football that I don't think exists in other parts of the country. The year RPI made it to the Final 4(2003), they got beaten pretty good by Hobart. 2022 Ithaca was 12-0 at one point, beat both RPI and Union by only 3, but blew everyone else out. 2022 Cortland was undefeated until Cortaca and got smoked by Ithaca. 2022 RPI beat IC/Union, and then very good Endicott and Cortland teams in the playoffs, but lost 10-9 to Hobart. I just don't think this parity with 'rivalry' teams exists elsewhere and it makes for great football, but low national ranks and respect. In a number of cases, our under-appreciated conferences do a little damage in the postseason. While I'm sure Ithaca and Union supporters were hopeful they could both beat RPI, I don't think anyone thought it would happen based on common results heading into those games, but anyone can win in these games every year.

As for the games themselves:

Cortaca
It seems to me at the end of the year, Ithaca may have been the best overall team in the LL, but they made the QB change too late. Their defense would likely give them an edge in the playoffs with the added offensive firepower. While Cortland had a few chances to pull it out, the IC defense came up huge in the 4th quarter. In the end, Cortland got a much more favorable playoff matchup than Union and COULD give JHU fits in Round 2(assuming they get there). Cortland still has the stank of playoff magic from 2 years ago, so it will be interesting how they perform.

Shoes
I was pretty livid about how RPI started. I couldn't watch, and I wasn't there, but I also heard there was some pretty lobsided officiating going on, though RPI just didn't come out of the locker room the same way Union did. Union definitely has a weapon in Flanagan. I fear it could be a little too 'one-trick pony-esque' against a team like Muhlenburg, but they definitely have a puncher's chance and hope they can win a game and continue to show that this league can compete with teams that seemingly get more national credit year in/year out... I had made mention of concerns about RPIs secondary from earlier the season. I called it out in the Buff St and Hilbert games. The problem is, during those games, while you may see it happen, it doesn't get exposed or as much attention as those games end up in blowouts.

I don't want this to sound like an excuse(though it will), because I think Union physically beat and outperformed RPI last weekend, but I can't help but wonder if RPIs schedule hurt them in the last 2 games. Breakdowns against Buff St and Hilbert didn't matter because it was like they were invincible against the competition, and maybe they got a little sloppy or lost some of their edge the minute Ithaca and Union smacked them in the mouth. And they didn't get their sh!t together until later in both games.

I give RPI a lot of credit for showing a lot of heart and never giving up the last 2 weeks. It turns out the offense wasn't as good as we thought they were(again based on some of their competition) and the secondary was exposed with all 3 losses this year. Hopefully it's a building block towards continued success next year, and hopefully they finish strong and beat the hell out of SJF. I also hope and expect Hobart to win handily.

Good luck to both Union and Cortland. While W's in the postseason only seem to skew reality in the moment, I still would love to see some success.

One last thing...Union still sucks, and I hope whoever owns the cowbells that I had to listen to the entire game had fender benders on the way home and needed the cowbells physically removed from their a$$ses.