FB: Liberty League

[Machiavelli]

Here's how the LL Top 3 breaks down

Union: 3 wins over teams with a combined record of 2-13, 2 losses to teams with a combined record of 8-1
RPI: 3 wins over teams with a combined record of 6-9, 2 losses to teams with a combined record of 8-2
Ithaca: 4 wins over teams with a combined record of 5-17, 1 loss to a team that is 1-3

None of the teams have a good win unless you're buying WPI at 4-1.

WPI has beaten:
0-5 UNE
1-4 Husson
3-2 Coast Guard
1-3 Norwich

Personally, that's a no from me. So IMO, we're parsing losses.

There's no way to put RPI over Union based on losses. Cortland is objectively a better loss than Utica, and there's no way losing 45-10 to Brockport is better than a loss OT to Susquehanna.

So it's Union ahead of RPI. What to do with Ithaca? One less loss, but it is, by far, the worst loss. And, the lousy 2nd half vs. Hobart means that they narrowly escaped with a win over a team RPI easily handled.

Thus, we have:

1. Union
2. RPI
3. Ithaca
4. Hobart
5. Rochester
6. St. Lawrence
7. Buffalo State
8. Hilbert

Your breakdown makes sense on paper. But recent games, momentum and history play into my thoughts. It's all speculation at this point, but just so my thoughts are clear, there it is.

[Ice Bear]

It's funny. I can see Union replicating what they did in conference last season. With that said, I can see them also absolutely not replicating last year and dropping games to all three or two of three of the remaining top LL teams. I've seen the Garnet grow and find a bit of an identity over the last three weeks, but again, against the likes of 1 bad team and 2 very bad teams.

I do have a bit of a feeling about RPI, having watched bits of their games and do think they could run the table as well. Same with IC.

I'm open to any interpretation of the top 4 as for me, it's hard to be definitive about any of them.

[Bartman]

Here's how the LL Top 3 breaks down

Union: 3 wins over teams with a combined record of 2-13, 2 losses to teams with a combined record of 8-1
RPI: 3 wins over teams with a combined record of 6-9, 2 losses to teams with a combined record of 8-2
Ithaca: 4 wins over teams with a combined record of 5-17, 1 loss to a team that is 1-3

None of the teams have a good win unless you're buying WPI at 4-1.

WPI has beaten:
0-5 UNE
1-4 Husson
3-2 Coast Guard
1-3 Norwich

Personally, that's a no from me. So IMO, we're parsing losses.

There's no way to put RPI over Union based on losses. Cortland is objectively a better loss than Utica, and there's no way losing 45-10 to Brockport is better than a loss OT to Susquehanna.

So it's Union ahead of RPI. What to do with Ithaca? One less loss, but it is, by far, the worst loss. And, the lousy 2nd half vs. Hobart means that they narrowly escaped with a win over a team RPI easily handled.

Thus, we have:

1. Union
2. RPI
3. Ithaca
4. Hobart
5. Rochester
6. St. Lawrence
7. Buffalo State
8. Hilbert

Your breakdown makes sense on paper. But recent games, momentum and history play into my thoughts. It's all speculation at this point, but just so my thoughts are clear, there it is.

I agree with Machs rankings, I can only say although Hobart laid an egg in Troy and played sloppy against Ithaca, there is no question that the better team Hobart played was RPI. I'm hoping that the team pulls it together against Union because right now we are just trying to get to third place in the LL and a decent Bowl game. I think since we are playing at the Boz , Union is beatable, but we'll have to play all four quarters for once this year. Of course Rochester is 2-0 in the Ll and we are 0-2 , so no assumptions made until the games are played. I think the league title will come down to the Shoes game and Ithaca needs to improve a lot before Cortaca, because Cortland beat a very good Utica squad.

[BomberJeff]

ESPN's Bill Connelly in his weekly SP+ rankings has moved Hilbert into the 772nd slot, meaning they are the worst college football team he ranks.  Below every NCAA team, below the NAIA teams, heck even below some teams with no overarching affiliation at present (mostly the Christian conference teams).  They were 771 last week, they go lept by previous longtime bottom team Maine Maritime.

https://bsky.app/profile/espnbillc.bsky.social/post/3mx4ynuyltc2t

[ICGrad]

ESPN's Bill Connelly in his weekly SP+ rankings has moved Hilbert into the 772nd slot, meaning they are the worst college football team he ranks.  Below every NCAA team, below the NAIA teams, heck even below some teams with no overarching affiliation at present (mostly the Christian conference teams).  They were 771 last week, they go lept by previous longtime bottom team Maine Maritime.

https://bsky.app/profile/espnbillc.bsky.social/post/3mx4ynuyltc2t

Ouch.

Judson, an NAIA team two spots above Hilbert, has lost back-to-back games by 90 points.

Hilbert plays St Lawrence and Buffalo State next. Last year they were competitive against Buffalo, losing 15-8, but were blown out by St Lawrence. Be interesting to see how they do this year.

[Machiavelli]

ESPN's Bill Connelly in his weekly SP+ rankings has moved Hilbert into the 772nd slot, meaning they are the worst college football team he ranks.  Below every NCAA team, below the NAIA teams, heck even below some teams with no overarching affiliation at present (mostly the Christian conference teams).  They were 771 last week, they go lept by previous longtime bottom team Maine Maritime.

https://bsky.app/profile/espnbillc.bsky.social/post/3mx4ynuyltc2t

Maine Maritime looks like it's TOP is not nearly as solid as Hilbert's. How in the world does Alfred State beat Hilbert 57-12 with a TOP deficit of 47:22 vs 12:38? Hilbert must have gotten screwed by the refs that game.

This poll is suspect.

[IC798891]

Excluding kneel downs, Alfred State ran 28 offensive plays in that game. Given that, I'm amazed that they even had the ball for 12 minutes.

[IC798891]

LL Midseason Awards

Offensive Player of the Year - Michael Reed, Ithaca QB. Leads the conference in passing yards by close to 40 a game (used instead of raw totals given that Union's QB has only played in 4 games). Both he and Sheehan have done their damage against the lower parts of the conference. Reed is also T-5th in rushing yards.

Defensive Player of the year - A.J. Bicksler, Rochester, DL. Leads the conference with 6.5 sacks and is second with 7.5 TFL. He's had at least half a sack in every game and I appreciate the consistency vs what we sometimes see where 80% of the production comes in 2-3 games.

Coaching Staff of the Year - Whoever wins the conference I guess? No one is likely to overachieve, so this one probably comes down to the boring logic of "To the winner go the spoils."

[Bartman]

PICKS for WEEK SIX(26-6 on season including the wrong bonus pick against Cortland last week)

RPI.       56.    Buff. State.    10.   Sliderulers accumulating stats all day in Buffalo

Union.     24.    Hobart.         27.   Hobart salvages an upset win at the Boz with a late FG

Rochester  10.    Ithaca.         37.   Bombers swat away the Yellowjactets

SLU.       63.    Hilbert.         7.   Saints take their turn at the Pinata

RPI, Union and Ithaca getting ready for some big games in the next few weeks. Ithaca will continue to be the only LL team to get votes in the poll.       

[Machiavelli]

Anyone else find it total banana land that Mount Union fell out of the top 25? They lost to the #2 team in the country by 1, and kind of a flukey-ish loss to the now #25 team by 3. I get it, they are 2-2, but so is #11 Wartburg, albeit with losses to the 1 and 6 teams. I'd take Mt Union over at least 15 of the top 25. It's almost as if the voters have been waiting for 30+ years for this moment and are fully taking advantage while they can. It feels a bit dirty to me. If they lose another, I'm on board. Ironically, they drop out after a 65-7 victory this past weekend.

Am I nuts here?

[IC798891]

Yeah but we can't play the fluky loss game without pointing out that they got one of their wins on a last second TD pass, in a game that they turned it over five times and probably only won because Grove City's last drive started 4 seconds on the right side of the two-minute warning.

Fluky results giveth, and taketh, and we should take them all into account

[Patrick Coleman]

Anyone else find it total banana land that Mount Union fell out of the top 25? They lost to the #2 team in the country by 1, and kind of a flukey-ish loss to the now #25 team by 3. I get it, they are 2-2, but so is #11 Wartburg, albeit with losses to the 1 and 6 teams. I'd take Mt Union over at least 15 of the top 25. It's almost as if the voters have been waiting for 30+ years for this moment and are fully taking advantage while they can. It feels a bit dirty to me. If they lose another, I'm on board. Ironically, they drop out after a 65-7 victory this past weekend.

Am I nuts here?

I think if the voters had the emotions that you ascribe to them, they would have dropped Mount Union out right after the Heidelberg loss.

By the way, the coaches' poll dropped Mount Union out right after the Heidelberg loss.

Indeed, I think Heidelberg losing and falling pushed Mount Union out. They lost at home to a team that is now barely in the poll. Why should Mount Union be ahead of Heidelberg?

[Machiavelli]

They should be ahead of Heidelberg because they are Mount Union and they've earned it. You know who they are, and perhaps they aren't a top 10 team, but they are 2-2, with a 1-point loss to what is being perceived as the the #2 team in the country. I know who these other teams losses are to, but Wartburg, Bethel and UW-Lacrosse have been given some grace with their 2-2 records. Lacrosse aside, those programs can't hold a candle to Mt. Union historically, and I don't often buy it, but in this case, history should hold a little extra weight.

And hell, you guys have Salisbury at 12. They played the equivalent of Mt. Ida 4 times, scraping by TCNJ who got beat much worse by something called Juniata. I know, I know, Salisbury was already up there and they don't have a loss to drop them. And next you will ask, who should Mt. Union be in front of...I know the drill, I know the drill.

In Summary, my main point still stands, I'd take Mt. Union head-to-head over about 15 of those top 25 teams. I know this is a moment in time(and perhaps I'm wrong), but it feels premature that they are fully out. But it's just a poll, and I was making an observation. I'm not gonna go crazy over it and delete my account. Just making some conversation.

P.S. - Congrats, Pat, by the way!

[Machiavelli]

Maybe I HAVE gone crazy and I SHOULD delete my account....I just realized I'm quasi-defending Mt. Union...

[Bartman]

Maybe I HAVE gone crazy and I SHOULD delete my account....I just realized I'm quasi-defending Mt. Union...

Mach, I'm truly concerned about you😂