WBB: Landmark Conference

[scottiedawg]

Observed number of Landmark bids over 10,000 sims
1 team -> 38.4% of sims
2 teams -> 61.5%
3 teams -> 0.00%

Catholic and Elizabethtown do not have an At-Large chance. They would have to win the Landmark tournament.

Susquehanna definitely has an At-Large chance.  They likely need to get to the Landmark finals. (but don't have to win it)

[deiscanton]

The NCAA DIII Women's Basketball Committee is now releasing official daily NPI summary reports up through the end of conference tournament play on Sunday, March 1, 2026. 

Today's NPI summary report covering games played through Wednesday, February 18 can be found at:

http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/48854

Here are the official NPI rankings and values of the Top 4 Landmark Conference women's basketball teams as of this morning, according to the NCAA NPI summary report:

1.)  Scranton-- #5 nationally in NPI-- 65.181-- "Lock" for the field.
2.)  Susquehanna-- #37 nationally in NPI-- 58.904-- "Bubble" team-- currently getting at-large bid #18 if selections were done today.
3.)  Catholic-- #60 nationally in NPI-- 56.829
4.)  Elizabethtown-- #63 nationally in NPI-- 56.747

These are the only 4 Landmark Conference women's basketball teams with NPI values above 54, and thus, carrying a quality win bonus. 

D3Datacast projections currently have the Landmark Conference getting 1.88 bids in women's basketball, with Susquehanna the most likely candidate for an at-large if Scranton wins the Landmark tournament.

In order for the Landmark to have a smidgeon of a chance at 3 bids, either Catholic or Elizabethtown would have to win the Landmark Tournament as a bid thief, and even then, it would be more likely either Catholic or Elizabethtown would steal the at-large bid from Susquehanna to give it to Scranton-- rather than getting the Landmark a second at-large bid.  Scranton is a lock for the NCAA field at #5 in NPI right now even if the Lady Royals suffered a major upset in the Landmark Tournament.

It would have to start with Catholic defeating Scranton this Saturday before the Landmark Tournament begins for any chance of the Landmark getting 2 at-large bids as well as the AQ.

Not to answer for Scottiedawg, but I do not see the Landmark getting 3 bids this year on the women's side.

[saratoga]

Thank you very much to both of you for the great summary of possibilities.
Personally, I hope Susquehanna gets a chance at the tournament as they've never been there & they have a nice group of kids that have played together for years.

[saratoga]

Congrats to Ben, his staff, & certainly all the kids on going a perfect 25-0.
All the best in the playoffs. 

[NEPAFAN]

Ho Hum....25-0

[Augie2020]

3 way tie for second who gets second Susquehanna?,Etown, Catholic ?

[saratoga]

I'm guessing Susquehanna based on their higher NPI. & the fact they all split with each other.

[scottiedawg]

Within the Landmark, 2,3,4 in NPI after today's results are Susquehanna, Elizabethtown, Catholic.

[saratoga]

Looks like Catholic yet again on Thursday evening back at the Long Center.

[saratoga]

Kaeli R. with another double/double.
One of the smallest players on the court, she led the way with 14 rebounds & chipped in 10 pts.
Non-stop hustle. 

[saratoga]

Feel bad for Coach O at Drew.
He had his kids on the cusp of disposing E-town but they missed 4 free throws with a 3 pt. lead with under a minute to play.
E-town drains a 3 to tie & then pulls away in OT.

[Augie2020]

Kind of a relative statement as the eye sometimes only sees what it wants to see. 

Per Ryan's mock bracket, should the Lady Royals win the first weekend they'd be off to JHU.
Goldfarb is a very drab middle school gym & that whole area is sketchy at best.

I pray he's wrong.

Well I was just picking up on something you said on the men's side. Maybe the NCAA should go back to the eye test about the men being ranked so high.

[deiscanton]

Thank you very much to both of you for the great summary of possibilities.
Personally, I hope Susquehanna gets a chance at the tournament as they've never been there & they have a nice group of kids that have played together for years.

Unfortunately, with the loss to Elizabethtown tonight in the Landmark semifinals, it does not look like the River Hawks will go dancing this year.   NPI value after tonight will put the River Hawks among the first 7 teams out.   

Elizabethtown played spoiler, and the Landmark looks like it will be a one bid league this year the way Scranton has been playing.  It will be a complete shock if Elizabethtown upsets Scranton on Saturday.  Don't be surprised to see Elizabethtown get blown out again by the Lady Royals in the final. 

Update-- Going into today, D3Datacast had Susquehanna only getting into the field in 65 out of 1,000 computer simulations where the River Hawks lost tonight in the Landmark semifinals, and Scott Peterson's theD3statlab only had Susquehanna getting in 3.1% of the time in situations where the River Hawks lost tonight to Elizabethtown. 

[scottiedawg]

They have the tiniest of chances if both Otterbein and St. Mary's (MN) lose tonight.

[deiscanton]

They have the tiniest of chances if both Otterbein and St. Mary's (MN) lose tonight.

Tonight's conference tournament action-- final scores now in--

Otterbein 68, Mt. Union 58-- OAC semifinal-- Otterbein advances to OAC championship game.

Concordia-Moorhead 71, St. Mary's (MN)-- 62-- MIAC semifinal

With those scorelines in, TheD3StatLab now has Susquehanna only making into the field 5.4% of the time after conference tournament play concludes on Sunday -(as of this evening's 9:56 PM ET update)- so Susquehanna is now on the wrong side of the bubble and is projected to stay there.