NESCAC

[kansas hokie]

Looking at the most recent NPI and it seems 6 NESCAC teams are guaranteed in the tournament. It hasn't been brought up much, but Amherst is sweating this weekend out if a lot of upsets happen in conference tournaments. They are currently 31st with an NPI of 56.643. I don't know the exact math, but if these results happen, I think it's possible they drop to 34/35. Given that last year the NPI cutoff was around 33/34, who knows, maybe it will happen again. Realistically, the only result that is keeping Amherst in the conversation is their win early on in the season against #8 Conn College and a tie against #12 Middlebury. They've had no other good results. Don't think they deserve to be in the tournament, but I think that they will most likely be in. Their own NPI could move a tiny bit depending on the NESCAC semi results, I'd assume. They will be cheering for Conn College and Middlebury as they are the two teams they had results with, but not sure if the NESCAC results will have much of an effect on Amherst's NPI.

Saint Johns currently 37th with an NPI of 56.012. They play against St Olaf who is currently the #2 team in the country. A win I think could get them to jump Amherst.

Southwestern currently 32nd with an NPI of 56.578. They play in their conference semi-final and then presumably a final against Trinity Texas. A result in the semi final and then a draw/win against Trinity Texas will surely get them past Amherst.

Buffalo state currently 34th with an NPI of 56.390. They play in the conference final against Oneonta who is the 49th team in the country. Not sure what the math is on this one, and if that win is enough to get them past that 56.64.

VA Wesleyan who is currently 33rd with an NPI of 56.484 don't have anymore games left. So it would be based on their current results which I don't think can move them past Amherst. 

Rowan is currently 35th with an NPI of 56.333. Need to win their conference tournament to have a chance and I don't know if it will even be enough to jump Amherst.

Ohio Northern is currently 36th with an NPI of 56.261. Need to win the semi-final and final of their conference tournament, and that might be enough to jump Amherst.

Well done, yes, there is a path for Amherst to be out, but it will take a lot of results to go against them. At this moment, Hamilton is the last team in, but yes, we will have conference upsets that change the order and move the cut-line. Amherst out would be big news for sure.

[Freddyfud]

Looking at the most recent NPI and it seems 6 NESCAC teams are guaranteed in the tournament. It hasn't been brought up much, but Amherst is sweating this weekend out if a lot of upsets happen in conference tournaments. They are currently 31st with an NPI of 56.643. I don't know the exact math, but if these results happen, I think it's possible they drop to 34/35. Given that last year the NPI cutoff was around 33/34, who knows, maybe it will happen again. Realistically, the only result that is keeping Amherst in the conversation is their win early on in the season against #8 Conn College and a tie against #12 Middlebury. They've had no other good results. Don't think they deserve to be in the tournament, but I think that they will most likely be in. Their own NPI could move a tiny bit depending on the NESCAC semi results, I'd assume. They will be cheering for Conn College and Middlebury as they are the two teams they had results with, but not sure if the NESCAC results will have much of an effect on Amherst's NPI.

Both Conn and Middlebury are in the QWB.  Every 1 point NPI increase for Conn would add .75, for Middlebury half of this for the earlier tie.

Saint Johns currently 37th with an NPI of 56.012. They play against St Olaf who is currently the #2 team in the country. A win I think could get them to jump Amherst.

A win over St Olaf would give Saint Johns 56.92 St Johns NPI

Buffalo state currently 34th with an NPI of 56.390. They play in the conference final against Oneonta who is the 49th team in the country. Not sure what the math is on this one, and if that win is enough to get them past that 56.64.

A win vs Oneonta would give Buffalo St 56.84 Buffalo St NPI

Rowan is currently 35th with an NPI of 56.333. Need to win their conference tournament to have a chance and I don't know if it will even be enough to jump Amherst.

Win the NJAC and they don't need to worry about an at large of course.  But if they beat TCNJ their NPI would be 56.50  Rowan NPI

[kansas hokie]

Amherst would also lose twice the points for a Wesleyan loss in the Conn/Wesleyan semi as Wesleyan is on their NPI twice. Amherst wants Wesleyan in NESCAC final.

Great stuff on the NPI calculations, shows how Buffalo St. and St. Johns can push Amherst closer to the bubble cutline. Can you open up your google sheets to public view? It defaults to asking for access, thanks!

[Freddyfud]

Amherst would also lose twice the points for a Wesleyan loss in the Conn/Wesleyan semi as Wesleyan is on their NPI twice. Amherst wants Wesleyan in NESCAC final.

Great stuff on the NPI calculations, shows how Buffalo St. and St. Johns can push Amherst closer to the bubble cutline. Can you open up your google sheets to public view? It defaults to asking for access, thanks!

Should be viewable now, I had the wrong permissions set.

[kansas hokie]

Hey again, i am getting some different numbers and will try to explain my logic...

Saint Johns NPI with St. Olaf win - I have 56.598. Right now, they have 868.188 NPI total points, divided by 15.5 to get their current NPI of 56.012. A win would add the St. Olaf win value (71.053) and would drop the win value for Saint Mary's as the next lowest win value (and last one they could drop as all others are above their NPI value). New total points - 882.935, divide by 15.5 still to get NPI with St. Olaf win of 56.598. Not yet above Amherst, would take another win to do that in the MIAC final.

For Buffalo St...I get 56.943 with Oneonta win.

For Rowan...56.539 with TCNJ win.

[northman]

The NESCAC coaches recommended Madden and fellow First Team All American Clivio to Portland Hearts of Pine - the new USL team based in Maine. The two of them were on trial at the club back in January. What a pairing that would have been!
[/quote]

I realize this is straying from the core NESCAC thread, but as a season ticket holder to the Portland Hearts of Pine...I can tell you this has been an absolute phenomenon during their first season.  Every game has been sold out and they have the highest average attendance in a league that extends from Spokane to SoCal to Chattanooga and little old Portland, Maine.  Each game is like a feel good party with food trucks, beverages for people of all ages, and an amazingly friendly and communal vibe.

[deiscanton]

We are now in the final two weeks of the regular season.  From now on, the NCAA DIII Men's Soccer Committee is planning to do daily runs of the NPI numbers and release daily NPI summary reports until the end of conference tournament play on Sunday, November 9.  The final report released will then indicate that it is the selections report and the at-large teams will be picked from that report. 

This most recent daily NPI run covers games through Thursday, November 6, 2025.

The report is available at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46654

NESCAC teams nationally ranked by NPI as of this report

1.) Tufts (#1 in NPI)-- 61.184
2.) Connecticut College (#8 in NPI)-- 58.929
3.) Wesleyan (#9 in NPI)-- 58.827
4.) Bowdoin (#10 in NPI)-- 58.538
5.) Middlebury (#13 in NPI)-- 58.153
6.) Williams (#18 in NPI)-- 57.603
7.) Amherst (#32 in NPI)-- 56.636
8.) Hamilton (#37 in NPI)-- 55.929
9.) Colby (#55 in NPI)-- 55.114
10.) Bates (#63 in NPI)-- 54.894

10 of the 11 NESCAC men's soccer teams currently carry quality win bonuses, as their NPIs are above 54.

11.)  Trinity (CT)  (#152 in NPI)-- 51.620

[Hotskull]

The NESCAC coaches recommended Madden and fellow First Team All American Clivio to Portland Hearts of Pine - the new USL team based in Maine. The two of them were on trial at the club back in January. What a pairing that would have been!

I realize this is straying from the core NESCAC thread, but as a season ticket holder to the Portland Hearts of Pine...I can tell you this has been an absolute phenomenon during their first season.  Every game has been sold out and they have the highest average attendance in a league that extends from Spokane to SoCal to Chattanooga and little old Portland, Maine.  Each game is like a feel good party with food trucks, beverages for people of all ages, and an amazingly friendly and communal vibe.
[/quote]

Completely valid point to bring up. The atmosphere, investment from the club owners, and overall the involvement from the community -- all the way from local businesses to the fans has been incredible. I wonder if we will see a pipeline of the top performing NESCAC players to the USL in coming years.

[Hotskull]

I am predicting Tufts and Conn College to advance to Sunday's final. The Cardinals have reached the championship game twice in team history and tomorrow will not be the third. Yes, they did beat Amherst but Reuben Burk's lads are far more positioned for a game like this. Unfortunately, the moment will be too big for Wesleyan and they will crumble. Middlebury is coming off a big quarter-final win but the Jumbos are hot  and I think they will elephant stomp the Panthers.

[Sandon Mibut]

Midd is playing good lately and their defense appears strong in spite of their record. They have one of the best GAA in the NESCAC but they couldn't score a goal until the last 2 weeks. I still lean towards a Tufts win in the semis. They are well rounded with very strong D/GK and an impotent Midd will have a hard time scoring.

Someone brought up the question of whether Tufts can make a run in the NCAA tourney with so many of their goals coming from PKs but the reality is they are putting other teams in difficulty which is why they draw the PKs in the first place.

IMO we'll be looking at Conn/Tufts on Sunday.

Regarding NPI numbers, has anyone done calculations for either of these scenarios?
- Tufts lose to Midd: what would Tufts NPI be?
- Conn defeat Wesleyan and then defeat Midd in finals: what would Conn NPI be?

I'm thinking Conn or Wesleyan would sneak into top-4 NPI if they win the NESCAC. Hard to see Tufts dropping out of the top-4 but I don't know how to do the exact calculations.

This is one of the funniest posts I've seen on the boards. Tufts has had great regular seasons for the past two years and it's amounted to nothing for them. A first place team on a "revenge tour" playing a subpar Bates team in the first round usually doesn't end in a dicey 1-0 win from a penalty, which seems to be Tufts' favorite way to score this year. It looks more like Dezotell has found the right balance of whining from the bench and bribes for the refs than a good roster this year.

Tufts has already shown that they're not a playoff team again this year, so you can say they're "DAWGS" going into this weekend as much as you want, but that's not gonna change what they all know- this Middlebury team has been edging greatness for years and this is the year it will all come to fruition.

Until Dezotell gains the confidence to create a real soccer team that doesn't play straight up haram ball, I will never give him credit for being a good coach. My left big toe could coach a team to play on the counter and lump in long throws. Dezotell is an old school NESCAC coach, who's stuck in the past and can't see that the game is changing around him. We've already seen Tufts' Brexit counterpart in Amherst lose this postseason. Inverting Wingbacks and Xg are here to stay and if teams can't adapt, they'll be left in the dust of innovators like Middlebury.

Lol, you're a nut.

[Nescac in November]

Conn 2-1 over Wesleyan
This will be a close game, but the Camels have showed in previous years that they know how to win in November. They're peaking at the right time and playing with a lot of confidence.

Tufts 2-0 over Midd
Tufts has been consistent all year. They will be determined to improve on last season's early playoff exits (both nescac and ncaa)

Conn vs Tufts
Camels find a way and go Back2Back

[kansas hokie]

Tufts is top 4 no matter what (lose to M'burg = 60.31 barely above Augsburg now).

Conn/Wesleyan move into top 4 if they beat Tufts in final, maybe not if they beat Middlebury (60.29 or 60.14).