NESCAC

Started by LaPaz, September 11, 2011, 05:54:52 PM

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Kuiper

Quote from: SimpleCoach on October 19, 2026, 07:44:39 PMI would suggest watching Redlands.  I see them as an Amherst in the making....

SC.

Redlands might get there when Ortega has a couple of recruiting cycles, but right now they are trailing Cal Lutheran in fouls (212 - 172) and Occidental in cards (33 (including 2 reds) - 26).  Caltech by contrast, has 111 fouls and 17 cards.

College Soccer Observer

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on October 19, 2026, 03:32:52 PM
Quote from: College Soccer Observer on October 18, 2026, 08:44:22 PM...and Bates was called for 5 more fouls than Amherst. 

If you look at any single game it is common for Amherst to have fewer penalties than their opponents. However, the hidden stat is how much worse most opponents play (fouls/game and cards/game) when facing Amherst. From 2021-today, the 10 NESCAC teams not named Amherst have played over 1000 total games with an average # of fouls/game around 11.5 and average # of cards/game of 1.4.

When you look at every game Amherst has played since 2021, their opposition has averaged 13.5 fouls/game and 2.04 cards/game.

You have to go back to 2012 to find a season in which Amherst was not 1st or 2nd in the conference in cards/game (and they've "won" 9 out of last 13 years).

I'd wager Serpone's strategy also helped shape Alex Elias's approach in coaching the Middlebury team as Middlebury has seemed more physical since Elias took over in 2017 and has been in the top-3 of cards/game for most of Elias's tenure as head coach (not in 2023 nor 2026 YTD).

For Amherst you have to go back to 9/28/24 just to find a game in which they had zero cards. And back to 11/5/23 to find a game in which both Amherst and their opponent had zero cards in a game. Amherst has had just 4 games since the start of the 2022 season with zero cards (that's 4 out of 89 games over the course of 4.5 seasons)!

And Amherst is worse when they get to the NCAA tournament. Since 2021 they've averaged 17.3 fouls/game in NCAA play while racking up an astronomical 63 cards in 22 NCAA tournament games. If you remove their 2021 NCAA tournament - which was fairly benign by their standards - they're averaging 18.2 fouls/game and have 53 cards in 16 NCAA games from 2022-2025.

Since Covid, the NESCAC has also gotten increasingly physical. Before 2020, it was rare to have more than 1-2 NESCAC teams average > 1.5 cards/game over the course of the regular conference season. Since covid an average of 1.5 cards/game is normal and we're regularly seeing 2-3 teams average at least 2 cards per game for entire regular conference seasons.

In summary: Amherst's rough "style" is a systemic issue dating back at least a dozen years, and it is also increasingly endemic to the NESCAC (and perhaps all of the upper-tiers of D3 soccer?).

I think the problem with using cards per game is that, especially pre-Coivd, referees in the NESCAC were reluctant to give cards.  One of the first NESCAC games I attended in person was Middlebury at Amherst in Sept 2019.  55 fouls called, and three yellows, all in overtime.  Same two teams played again in NESCAC semis, 32 fouls, three yellows (no overtime).  As the general oversight of NCAA soccer officiating has focused on clamping down on some of the nonsense, you are seeing more cards for things that used to be just fouls or were ignored altogether.  My impression is that the style of play has always been physical, but that the referees are reacting to it differently now.
In 2019, there were only 2 red cards given to NESCAC men's teams.  Trinity, Amherst, Midd, and Bates all averaged more than 1 yellow per game.  In 2021, there were 4 reds, and Bowdoin, Tufts, and Williams were the only teams to get less than a yellow per game.  In 2022, there were 10 reds and only Bowdoin and Colby were less than a yellow per game.  In 2023, there were 8 reds, and only Bowdoin was less than a yellow per game.  In 2024, there were 5 red cards (4 to Trinity) and no team in the league was under a yellow per game. In 2025, there were 5 reds, but the only 2 teams who averaged less than a yellow per game were Wesleyan and Bates.  This year, there have been 6 reds and only Bates is under a yellow per game. 

Kuiper

Region I - Poll 6 - October 20, 2026
Rank   School   Prev   W-L-T
1   Middlebury College   NR   9-0-3
2   Williams College   NR   9-1-2
3   Connecticut College   NR   9-2-2
4   Tufts University   NR   7-2-3
5   Bowdoin College   NR   7-2-4
6   Wesleyan University   NR   6-3-3
7   Amherst College   NR   5-3-4
8   Trinity College   NR   6-5-1

LibbyMoore

Looking at the schedule for the week, and noticed that Amherst has what has to be the most undesirable travel schedule of the week: a double header in Maine last weekend followed by...a midweek game back in Maine vs Husson! Looks like a replacement game for a canceled Eastern CT game, but that is the short end of the stick for sure: https://athletics.amherst.edu/sports/mens-soccer/schedule

ccd494

Husson had a game canceled against Williams a couple of weeks ago, so both were looking for a game.

At least Amherst doesn't need to drive all the way to Bangor- they are meeting in the middle-ish at a high school outside Portland.

nescac1

NESCAC is now an insane collective 42-1-8 out of conference.  As a result, there is a very good chance NESCAC will receive seven, possibly even eight, NCAA bids.  Midd (NPI 1), Williams (4), Conn (10), Tufts (18), Wesleyan (20) and Bowdoin (23) are all locks or very close to locks at this point, and maybe four from that group will be hosting first round pods.  So that's six in.  Hamilton is in very good shape at 33, wins over Colby and Morrisville to end the season probably make them close to a lock regardless of how they perform in the NESCAC tournament.  Amherst is currently 45, but would move way up if they beat Trinity and then get at least one result against Wesleyan and then in the NESCAC tourney.  Very easily could see eight teams in if Amherst and Hamilton finish strong. 

SierraFD3soccer

While the out of conf. schedule looks impressive. NESCAC out of conf. teams are not impressive or are not in the least this year. Each plays 4 or 5 teams. How many are top teams? Very, very few. Middlebury's out of conf teams are very middling.

Maine Marine ranked 309
Husson 233
Endicott 57 (the one exception)
US Merchant 189

Amherst

Albertus Magnus 165
Westfield 376
Babson 45
Keene 327
Husson 233

Williams

Gordon 80
Wheaton MA 51
Keene 327
Univ of Hartford 156

Tufts

UMASS 197
Thomas 113
WPI 326
Babson 45
Westfield 376

On several occasions, they just beat up on the same teams.



Newenglander

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on October 22, 2026, 06:14:45 PMWhile the out of conf. schedule looks impressive. NESCAC out of conf. teams are not impressive or are not in the least this year. Each plays 4 or 5 teams. How many are top teams? Very, very few. Middlebury's out of conf teams are very middling.

Maine Marine ranked 309
Husson 233
Endicott 57 (the one exception)
US Merchant 189

Amherst

Albertus Magnus 165
Westfield 376
Babson 45
Keene 327
Husson 233

Williams

Gordon 80
Wheaton MA 51
Keene 327
Univ of Hartford 156

Tufts

UMASS 197
Thomas 113
WPI 326
Babson 45
Westfield 376

On several occasions, they just beat up on the same teams.



Well - I think that may be in general for a lot of top teams......either you beat up on your weak conference or play softer out of conference games.....This is one non-nescac team top 3 in NPI....St.Olaf here

12   UChicago   AW   57.039   65.763   48.484   2.28   65.763   1.0   0.0
35   Saint John's (MN)   HW   55.462   63.24   47.143   1.097   63.24   1.0   0.0
56   Luther   AW   54.149   61.139   46.027   0.112   61.139   1.0   0.0
72   Wis.-Platteville   AT   53.493   60.469   45.469   0.0   52.969   0.5   0.5
79   Wis.-Superior   HT   53.261   60.272   45.272   0.0   52.772   0.5   0.5
83   Carleton   AW   53.21   60.228   45.228   0.0   60.228   1.0   0.0
98   Augsburg   HW   52.811   59.889   44.889   0.0   59.889   1.0   0.0
117   Macalester   AW   52.136   59.315   44.315   0.0   59.315   1.0   0.0
123   Edgewood   AW   51.978   59.181   44.181   0.0   59.181   1.0   0.0
170   Bethany Lutheran   HW   50.733   58.123   43.123   0.0   58.123   1.0   0.0
209   St. Scholastica   HW   49.669   57.219   42.219   0.0   57.219   1.0   0.0
255   Carroll (WI)   HW   48.428   56.164   41.164   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0
257   Central (IA)   HW   48.349   56.096   41.096   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0
312   Concordia-M'head   HW   46.51   54.534   39.534   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0
329   Carthage   AW   45.727   53.868   38.868   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0
371   Saint Mary's (MN)   HW   43.389   51.88   36.88   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0

College Soccer Observer

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on October 22, 2026, 06:14:45 PMWhile the out of conf. schedule looks impressive. NESCAC out of conf. teams are not impressive or are not in the least this year. Each plays 4 or 5 teams. How many are top teams? Very, very few. Middlebury's out of conf teams are very middling.

Maine Marine ranked 309
Husson 233
Endicott 57 (the one exception)
US Merchant 189

Amherst

Albertus Magnus 165
Westfield 376
Babson 45
Keene 327
Husson 233

Williams

Gordon 80
Wheaton MA 51
Keene 327
Univ of Hartford 156

Tufts

UMASS 197
Thomas 113
WPI 326
Babson 45
Westfield 376

On several occasions, they just beat up on the same teams.



Midd's actual out of conference opponents were
US Merchant Marine Academy 200
Endicott 54
RPI 138
Maine Maritime 313

SimpleCoach

Just based on anecdotal evidence, I think teams in some conferences figured out that they can game the NPI a little bit, and lay off the throttle in non-conference games.

SC.

College Soccer Observer

#10315
Using the most current NCAA RPI figures, Middlebury's opponents this year in order of ranking
4. Williams
10. Conn
17. Tufts
20. Wesleyan
23. Bowdoin
33. Hamilton
45. Amherst
54. Endicott
62. Trinity
76. Colby
95. Bates
138. RPI
200. Merchant Marine
313. Maine Maritime

Non conference opponents in bold. 
Quote from: SimpleCoach on October 23, 2026, 10:13:05 AMJust based on anecdotal evidence, I think teams in some conferences figured out that they can game the NPI a little bit, and lay off the throttle in non-conference games.

SC.
Is it gaming the system, or is it smart scheduling?  If you already have 10 conference games that are top 100, your conference only plays 15 games, and your travel outside the region is restricted, why would a school add more?

blue_jays

Quote from: nescac1 on October 22, 2026, 04:46:11 PMNESCAC is now an insane collective 42-1-8 out of conference.  As a result, there is a very good chance NESCAC will receive seven, possibly even eight, NCAA bids.  Midd (NPI 1), Williams (4), Conn (10), Tufts (18), Wesleyan (20) and Bowdoin (23) are all locks or very close to locks at this point, and maybe four from that group will be hosting first round pods.  So that's six in.  Hamilton is in very good shape at 33, wins over Colby and Morrisville to end the season probably make them close to a lock regardless of how they perform in the NESCAC tournament.  Amherst is currently 45, but would move way up if they beat Trinity and then get at least one result against Wesleyan and then in the NESCAC tourney.  Very easily could see eight teams in if Amherst and Hamilton finish strong. 

I said it weeks ago and stand by it: for all the talk about how mediocre Amherst is this year, they will somehow weasel their way into the NCAAs, thanks to NPI.

College Soccer Observer

Not sure about them getting into NCAAs.  They need to make sure they are in the NESCAC tourney first, and then would need at least 1 good result there and hope that upsets elsewhere do not result in other teams stealing a bid.

Newenglander

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on October 23, 2026, 10:21:20 AMUsing the most current NCAA RPI figures, Middlebury's opponents this year in order of ranking
4. Williams
10. Conn
17. Tufts
20. Wesleyan
23. Bowdoin
33. Hamilton
45. Amherst
54. Endicott
62. Trinity
76. Colby
95. Bates
138. RPI
200. Merchant Marine
313. Maine Maritime

Non conference opponents in bold. 
Quote from: SimpleCoach on October 23, 2026, 10:13:05 AMJust based on anecdotal evidence, I think teams in some conferences figured out that they can game the NPI a little bit, and lay off the throttle in non-conference games.

SC.
Is it gaming the system, or is it smart scheduling?  If you already have 10 conference games that are top 100, your conference only plays 15 games, and your travel outside the region is restricted, why would a school add more?
Yes, show me a team from a "good" conference where they go out of their way to schedule difficult out of conference games........

SierraFD3soccer

Ummm UAA, Southern Athletic Association, ODAC, Landmark, CC, Liberty League (Vassar), NCAC, OAC, Commonwealth, Coast to Coast (UMW, Christian Newport), NJAC among others. Top teams in these conf. regularly play other top teams in these conf as opposed to the NESCAC.