NESCAC

[Kuiper]

Using the most current NCAA RPI figures, Middlebury's opponents this year in order of ranking
4. Williams
10. Conn
17. Tufts
20. Wesleyan
23. Bowdoin
33. Hamilton
45. Amherst
54. Endicott
62. Trinity
76. Colby
95. Bates
138. RPI
200. Merchant Marine
313. Maine Maritime
Non conference opponents in bold. 

Just based on anecdotal evidence, I think teams in some conferences figured out that they can game the NPI a little bit, and lay off the throttle in non-conference games.

SC.

Is it gaming the system, or is it smart scheduling?  If you already have 10 conference games that are top 100, your conference only plays 15 games, and your travel outside the region is restricted, why would a school add more?

Yes, show me a team from a "good" conference where they go out of their way to schedule difficult out of conference games........

UAA?  Even with UAA's reduced conference schedule, Chicago didn't need to schedule St. Olaf, Gustavus Adolphus, and Wisconsin-Eau Claire. There are plenty of easier teams near Chicago in several conferences.  Similarly, Emory didn't have to fly to California to play Redlands (plenty of CCS, SAA, and USA South teams that would have been easier), and Wash U. didn't have to schedule DePauw and North Park (plenty of easier SLIAC teams available). NYU is probably the one team that followed the model of scheduling easier local teams with the hope the UAA teams would bolster their schedule and it's kind of working as they are 8-3-1 and #61 in the NPI despite being 0-3 in the UAA. 

[Futbolguy]

While the out of conf. schedule looks impressive. NESCAC out of conf. teams are not impressive or are not in the least this year. Each plays 4 or 5 teams. How many are top teams? Very, very few. Middlebury's out of conf teams are very middling.

Maine Marine ranked 309
Husson 233
Endicott 57 (the one exception)
US Merchant 189

Amherst

Albertus Magnus 165
Westfield 376
Babson 45
Keene 327
Husson 233

Williams

Gordon 80
Wheaton MA 51
Keene 327
Univ of Hartford 156

Tufts

UMASS 197
Thomas 113
WPI 326
Babson 45
Westfield 376

On several occasions, they just beat up on the same teams.

Midd's actual out of conference opponents were
US Merchant Marine Academy 200
Endicott 54
RPI 138
Maine Maritime 313

Yet Midd has gone unbeaten among NESCAC teams, without as much as a scare

[Bucket]

FWIW—With its 10th win of the season, Midd now gets to drop its weakest win, which was against Maine Maritime. Essentially Midd just swapped out a win over 313 with a win over 95 (Bates).

Midd's game against Williams on Tuesday is now meaningless as far as conference standings go (Midd clinched top spot with win at Bates while Ephs lost to Tufts) but it's a monumental match for NPI purposes which is what matters for national post-season play.

And my thought about non-conference scheduling: When 5 of your conference opponents are top 25 NPI and 7 are top 50, I roll my eyes just a bit at the angst that a team like Midd didn't schedule "tough enough" non conference games. Maybe if they turned in mediocre results against those top-ranked teams, but heading in to that clash of the titans (1 v 4) against Williams on Tuesday, the Panthers are unbeaten and 3-0-1 against those top 25 opponents.

[Sandon Mibut]

And my thought about non-conference scheduling: When 5 of your conference opponents are top 25 NPI and 7 are top 50, I roll my eyes just a bit at the angst that a team like Midd didn't schedule "tough enough" non conference games. Maybe if they turned in mediocre results against those top-ranked teams, but heading in to that clash of the titans (1 v 4) against Williams on Tuesday, the Panthers are unbeaten and 3-0-1 against those top 25 opponents.

Agreed with the above.

Perhaps Middlebury didn't realize St. Lawrence would jump from #179 NPI last year to #2 currently.

And Tufts didn't realize Westfield State would drop from #151 NPI last year to #376.

UAA doesn't even begin conference matches until October because they only have 7 conference games and no conference tournament; it makes sense they want to find good opponents to schedule in September.

[Yankeesoccerdad]

So if I am reading the table and schedule correctly, Amherst and Trinity are playing Tuesday to claim the 8th and final spot in the playoffs? Would anyone have predicted this a year or two ago? This has to be the most meaningful game by the Bantams in a very long time.

[College Soccer Observer]

If I read the tie breaker's correctly, Bates can still get in with a win over Colby and an Amherst-Trinity tie.  They would be even on points and tied head to head, but Bates would have one more conference win.

[Yankeesoccerdad]

If I read the toe breaker's correctly, Bates can still get in with a win over Colby and an Amherst-Trinity tie.  They would be even on points and tied head to head, but Bates would have one more conference win.

CSO, I think you are right!  A tie would be surprising, but Amherst has only one conference win so who knows. 

I am happy for Trinity.  Things are looking up for them after a string of tough years.

[Sandon Mibut]

Still a lot of movement that can happen in the conference standings, but here is the general stratification:

• Middlebury 1
• Tufts 2-5
• Williams 2-5
• Bowdoin 2-5
• Conn 3-6
• Wesleyan 5-7
• Hamilton 6-7
• Amherst or Trinity 8
• Bates 9-11 (cannot make tourney)
• Colby 10-11 (cannot make tourney)

And a handful of details and outcomes:

• Amherst secures 8th with a win or tie; Trinity secures 8th with a win.   
• Conn cannot get to 2nd due to 2-way tiebreaker rules, so they are trapped between 3rd and 6th. Even if Tufts-Williams-Conn all finish with 18 points they will rank 2-3-4 in that order based on 3-way tiebreaker rules.
• a Tufts win guarantees 2nd or they could drop as low as 5th (Tufts loss AND Williams win/tie AND Conn win) 
• a Tufts tie guarantees them no worse than 3rd (2nd if Williams loses or ties; 3rd if Williams wins) 
• Williams can climb to 2nd (win or tie coupled with Tufts loss) or drop as low as 5th (Williams loss coupled with Conn win AND Bowdoin win) 
• Bowdoin can climb to 2nd (win coupled with Williams loss) or drop to 5th (loss coupled with Conn tying or winning; tie coupled with Conn winning) 
• Conn can climb to 3rd (Conn win and both Tufts and Williams lose) or drop as low as 6th (Conn loss) 
• Wesleyan moves up to 5th (win), stays in 6th (tie) or drops to 7th (loss; they would drop below Hamilton both at 12 points but Hamilton won the head-to-head match) 
• Tufts tie AND Conn win AND Williams lose = Tufts 2nd (by tiebreaker), Conn 3rd, Williams 4th, Bowdoin 5th, Wesleyan 6th 
• Tufts tie AND Conn win AND Williams tie = Tufts 2nd (tiebreaker), Williams 3rd (tiebreaker), Conn 4th, Bowdoin 5th, Wesleyan 7th 
• Tufts tie AND Conn win AND Williams win = Williams 2nd, Tufts 3rd (tiebreaker), Conn 4th, Bowdoin 5th, Wesleyan 7th
• Tufts loss AND Conn win AND Williams win = Williams 2nd, Bowdoin 3rd, Conn 4th, Tufts 5th, Wesleyan 7th
• Tufts loss AND Conn win AND Williams tie = Bowdoin 2nd, Williams 3rd, Conn 4th, Tufts 5th, Wesleyan 7th
• Tufts loss AND Conn win AND Williams loss = Bowdoin 2nd, Conn 3rd, Tufts 4th (tiebreaker), Williams 5th, Wesleyan 7th
• Conn loss = Wesleyan 5th, Conn 6th
• Conn tie = Wesleyan 6th
• Conn tie AND Bowdoin loss = Tufts 2nd, Williams 3rd, Conn 4th, Bowdoin 5th, Wesleyan 6th

The above encompasses most scenarios (not sure if it shows every possible iteration) but it includes best- and worst-case scenarios for each team.

Also interesting to note that Conn has yet to win any big games this year (0-2-2 against Midd, Williams, Tufts and Bowdoin). Their best wins YTD are Hamilton, Amherst, Trinity and Colby (all 5 of their non-conference wins were against opponents ranked ~130 or below).

The Williams @ Middlebury game happens tomorrow at 2pm meaning Tufts will know in advance if they can settle for a tie and still hold 2nd (if Williams loses).

Then Conn plays an hour after Tufts so by halftime Conn will know if 3rd is still achievable (Williams and Tufts losses) or if they can be content to tie (if Williams and Tufts both win then Conn finishes in 4th with regardless if they win or tie). Although based on their somewhat lackluster season I assume they will not be playing for a tie.

Edited based on @LibbyMoore's post below: a Bates win and Amherst tie would result in both teams with 9 points but Amherst would win based on conference win % (Amherst 1-3-6 = .400 vs Bates 2-5-3 = .350).

Edited based on Viking's post below: a Wesleyan loss would drop them to 7th and Hamilton up to 6th based on tiebreaker (Hamilton won the head-to-head match).

[LibbyMoore]

Am I reading this correctly--Bates actually cannot make it to the conference tournament with a victory over Colby, because most conference wins is the third criteria after best league win percentage? Amherst has more ties, Bates has more wins.

Best record among tying teams, against one another (head-to-head).
Best league win percentage among tied teams (ties count as half a win).
Most conference wins (in games that are part of the conference schedule and count toward league standings).

[Viking]

• Wesleyan 5-6
• Hamilton 7

I think there may be a wrinkle in this part of the table, with Wesleyan falling to seventh with a loss tomorrow. Cards lost to Conts a few weeks ago, so head-to-head tiebreaker goes to HC if both finish with 12 points.

[Sandon Mibut]

Am I reading this correctly--Bates actually cannot make it to the conference tournament with a victory over Colby, because most conference wins is the third criteria after best league win percentage? Amherst has more ties, Bates has more wins.

Best record among tying teams, against one another (head-to-head).
Best league win percentage among tied teams (ties count as half a win).
Most conference wins (in games that are part of the conference schedule and count toward league standings).

Yes you're correct - good catch - I updated my post above.

Also strange that the tiebreaker rules use "league" and "conference" in different instances but it appears they mean the same thing.

• Wesleyan 5-6
• Hamilton 7

I think there may be a wrinkle in this part of the table, with Wesleyan falling to seventh with a loss tomorrow. Cards lost to Conts a few weeks ago, so head-to-head tiebreaker goes to HC if both finish with 12 points.

Dang - another good catch. Will update my earlier post.

[nescac1]

Huge win for Williams, one of their biggest regular-season wins in years with the 2-1 win over previously unbeaten Middlebury. Kellen Grace was certainly the man of the match for Williams as he scored off a corner that somehow evaded the defenders and goalie and bounced in, and then delivered a gorgeous long pass to Ruehlmann, who really turned on the jets for a breakaway goal which ended up being the game-winner. Considering that Midd had only given up three goals in the entire season, I suspect the GK would love another shot at both of those plays (especially the breakaway goal), but these things happen.  Speaking of which, Midd made it interesting on a PK on a what I'd say was bad luck for the defender in the box, a bit of unfortunate timing on a bang-bang play.   

With this huge NPI boost of a win, Williams should be a lock to host a pod at the NCAA tourney regardless of what happens in the NESCAC tourney (I think Midd was already a lock). 

The one dark cloud for the Ephs was that two of their best players, offensive engine Alex Bethencourt (who will surely be all-conference this year) and all-conference defender Chase Caires, did not play.  Hopefully both are OK for the post-season.   

[stlawus]

Huge win for Williams, one of their biggest regular-season wins in years with the 2-1 win over previously unbeaten Middlebury. Kellen Grace was certainly the man of the match for Williams as he scored off a corner that somehow evaded the defenders and goalie and bounced in, and then delivered a gorgeous long pass to Ruehlmann, who really turned on the jets for a breakaway goal which ended up being the game-winner. Considering that Midd had only given up three goals in the entire season, I suspect the GK would love another shot at both of those plays (especially the breakaway goal), but these things happen.  Speaking of which, Midd made it interesting on a PK on a what I'd say was bad luck for the defender in the box, a bit of unfortunate timing on a bang-bang play.   

With this huge NPI boost of a win, Williams should be a lock to host a pod at the NCAA tourney regardless of what happens in the NESCAC tourney (I think Midd was already a lock). 

The one dark cloud for the Ephs was that two of their best players, offensive engine Alex Bethencourt (who will surely be all-conference this year) and all-conference defender Chase Caires, did not play.  Hopefully both are OK for the post-season.   

You never know as far as hosting with all the ancillary factors at play, but at the very least it should lock in the extremely important top 8 protected seed.

[nescacfootyfan]

Congrats to the Ephs — and a big fan of Desmangles, who's a good player. Bummer to see Bethencourt out, too. Calling this Williams' biggest regular-season win feels premature, though, with All-American Leon Brody sitting out the second half alongside Payne. Middlebury certainly didn't look particularly interested in making a statement, perhaps with one eye already on the weekend.

Williams has talent, which makes their style of play all the more baffling. The coaching staff seems to have decided that passing is an unnecessary complication of soccer. Why string together three passes when you can simply launch the ball 40 yards and hope for the best? Full-grown kickball, with the occasional football throw-in for good measure. Maybe they'll nick a few wins in the tournament, but watching a team with that much talent play so little actual football is quite the achievement in itself.

Anyway, the real question of the day: can Amherst take down the mighty Bants?

[Futbolguy]

What no one has mentioned here in the wake of the Wiliams win is that Midd took out starting GK Brody at halftime.  Unsure why.  Sophomore and untested JD Ball in for the second half and gave up two tough goals.  Very curious decision.  Hopefully not an injury to Brody although did not look like one on the stream......