NESCAC

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Yeah I'd say NESCAC has seven locks for the tourney at this point because every remaining game is contested between two mega-high NPI teams.  Amherst is almost surely in with a tie or a win vs. Middlebury, and since Midd's NPI is so massive, Amherst has a very good chance of being in with a loss, which might not actually hurt it at all.   

I agree with calling Amherst a likely in but not quite a lock. With an overall NPI of 55.933 based on 15 games played, adding Middlebury's loss value of 51.241 from the most recent official NPI release as a hypothetical 16th result and doing the napkin math puts Amherst with an NPI of 55.640. Only about a 0.3 drop.

[MunnyTim]

Mr. Hopkins 92 - The "it reduces risk" argument is a pretty lazy way to analyze soccer. Georgetown does it at D1, Conn. consistently builds out of the back at D3, and Midd. and Tufts do it too, just less consistently. So maybe stop confusing a lack of ambition with tactical pragmatism. Obviously, kicking the ball as far away from your own goal as possible reduces immediate risk. That's not some profound tactical insight. The question is whether you can coach a team to progress the ball under pressure without panicking and giving up possession. Some D3 coaches clearly can. Others seem content to dress up kickball as a philosophy because their results give them cover(sometimes). Winning games doesn't automatically mean you understand the game, and calling something "effective" doesn't make it sophisticated

Not for nothing, but when folks on here question why certain teams play Route 1 soccer and I provide a relevant and pertinent response, I'm not shooting for "profound" or "sophisticated"... Just going for "accurate."

I've edited this post twice to take out some direct shots at you, because your tone and overall approach to a fairly innocuous post of mine is out of line. But I'll keep it above board and down the line.

Hopkins, I have your back on this and have had a NESCAC coach use almost that literal quote with me.  Something to the effect that "it is lot harder to get in trouble when the ball is 50 yards away from your goal.."

I definitely agree with your position and assessment.  Much of the NESCAC is stacked with skilled, high quality players.  However, as we see with Arsenal in the Prem, sometimes goals are easier to come by when you stack the box with a bunch of tall players and just continually throw/launch it in there and hope for something good to happen.  For teams that play it out of the back and do not have a ton of height, it is increasingly difficult to continually break down teams' defenses for high quality scoring chances.

So consider me seconding your opinion - as a somewhat long time NESCAC observer/supporter.

[CACtion]

NESCAC Tourney time.

Midd-Amherst: Weird to see this matchup any earlier than a championship game/elite 8. Amherst somehow has enough players not on red cards to actually play this game. UFC Amherst branch is alive and well. Midd is better all across the park and has the benefit of playing at home. However, Serpone is the Panthers daddy in knockout games. If Midd rolls their shocking back-up goalkeeper out there again look for some witch magic from the Mammoths. Otherwise, I think this Midd team is simply too dominant. 2-1 Midd

Williams-Wes: Williams is rolling after a win in Vermont. Their particular brand of terrorism is working like a charm this season. Good luck to any team trying to score on the Ephs when they have 11 guys sitting on the goaline. To their credit, 15 and 7 are legit players who can make something out of nothing in every game. Wes sucks without 8 on the field- plain and simple. Also, Wesleyan are just always gonna little bro to Williams. I don't see much chance of an upset here. 2-0 Williams

Bowdoin-Hamilton: Bowdoin comes off a massive win against Tufts to secure the 3 seed. Bowdoin always just seems to go about their business in a quiet classy way. 8 on Bowdoin is a dawg who affects the game across the entire field. Hamilton on the other hand is on a sweet run of form winning 3 on the bounce and most recently ending Colby's season on Saturday (imagine having to get on an 8 hour bus ride and you end up back in Waterville Maine... ouch). The return of their playmaker 10 at Hamilton seems to have fired the boys up. It might just be the year of the Conts. 1-1 Hamilton on pens

Conn-Tufts: Definitely the toughest matchup to call. 7 on Conn does whatever he wants, video game player. The boys at Conn also don't have to waste energy doing work or going to class so that definitely helps. Tufts is obviously stacked and just seem to find a way to win. However, I think the Jumbos might have spent too much time showing off their rings to the 'cac 8s at mixers and not enough getting into a groove going into tournament play. 2-1 Conn in OT

[Sandon Mibut]

Yeah I'd say NESCAC has seven locks for the tourney at this point because every remaining game is contested between two mega-high NPI teams.  Amherst is almost surely in with a tie or a win vs. Middlebury, and since Midd's NPI is so massive, Amherst has a very good chance of being in with a loss, which might not actually hurt it at all. 

I agree with calling Amherst a likely in but not quite a lock. With an overall NPI of 55.933 based on 15 games played, adding Middlebury's loss value of 51.241 from the most recent official NPI release as a hypothetical 16th result and doing the napkin math puts Amherst with an NPI of 55.640. Only about a 0.3 drop.

My calculations for Amherst this weekend. Win or tie should make them a lock, but a loss would leave them on the chopping block. #33 was the highest rank team in 2025 to not get an at-large bid; #34 was the first team to miss the cut in 2024.

56.872 = 18th on today's list. Win.
56.256 = 25th on today's list. Tie.
55.640 = 33rd on today's list. Loss.