NESCAC

[ziggy]

Yeah I'd say NESCAC has seven locks for the tourney at this point because every remaining game is contested between two mega-high NPI teams.  Amherst is almost surely in with a tie or a win vs. Middlebury, and since Midd's NPI is so massive, Amherst has a very good chance of being in with a loss, which might not actually hurt it at all.   

I agree with calling Amherst a likely in but not quite a lock. With an overall NPI of 55.933 based on 15 games played, adding Middlebury's loss value of 51.241 from the most recent official NPI release as a hypothetical 16th result and doing the napkin math puts Amherst with an NPI of 55.640. Only about a 0.3 drop.

[MunnyTim]

Mr. Hopkins 92 - The "it reduces risk" argument is a pretty lazy way to analyze soccer. Georgetown does it at D1, Conn. consistently builds out of the back at D3, and Midd. and Tufts do it too, just less consistently. So maybe stop confusing a lack of ambition with tactical pragmatism. Obviously, kicking the ball as far away from your own goal as possible reduces immediate risk. That's not some profound tactical insight. The question is whether you can coach a team to progress the ball under pressure without panicking and giving up possession. Some D3 coaches clearly can. Others seem content to dress up kickball as a philosophy because their results give them cover(sometimes). Winning games doesn't automatically mean you understand the game, and calling something "effective" doesn't make it sophisticated

Not for nothing, but when folks on here question why certain teams play Route 1 soccer and I provide a relevant and pertinent response, I'm not shooting for "profound" or "sophisticated"... Just going for "accurate."

I've edited this post twice to take out some direct shots at you, because your tone and overall approach to a fairly innocuous post of mine is out of line. But I'll keep it above board and down the line.

Hopkins, I have your back on this and have had a NESCAC coach use almost that literal quote with me.  Something to the effect that "it is lot harder to get in trouble when the ball is 50 yards away from your goal.."

I definitely agree with your position and assessment.  Much of the NESCAC is stacked with skilled, high quality players.  However, as we see with Arsenal in the Prem, sometimes goals are easier to come by when you stack the box with a bunch of tall players and just continually throw/launch it in there and hope for something good to happen.  For teams that play it out of the back and do not have a ton of height, it is increasingly difficult to continually break down teams' defenses for high quality scoring chances.

So consider me seconding your opinion - as a somewhat long time NESCAC observer/supporter.

[CACtion]

NESCAC Tourney time.

Midd-Amherst: Weird to see this matchup any earlier than a championship game/elite 8. Amherst somehow has enough players not on red cards to actually play this game. UFC Amherst branch is alive and well. Midd is better all across the park and has the benefit of playing at home. However, Serpone is the Panthers daddy in knockout games. If Midd rolls their shocking back-up goalkeeper out there again look for some witch magic from the Mammoths. Otherwise, I think this Midd team is simply too dominant. 2-1 Midd

Williams-Wes: Williams is rolling after a win in Vermont. Their particular brand of terrorism is working like a charm this season. Good luck to any team trying to score on the Ephs when they have 11 guys sitting on the goaline. To their credit, 15 and 7 are legit players who can make something out of nothing in every game. Wes sucks without 8 on the field- plain and simple. Also, Wesleyan are just always gonna little bro to Williams. I don't see much chance of an upset here. 2-0 Williams

Bowdoin-Hamilton: Bowdoin comes off a massive win against Tufts to secure the 3 seed. Bowdoin always just seems to go about their business in a quiet classy way. 8 on Bowdoin is a dawg who affects the game across the entire field. Hamilton on the other hand is on a sweet run of form winning 3 on the bounce and most recently ending Colby's season on Saturday (imagine having to get on an 8 hour bus ride and you end up back in Waterville Maine... ouch). The return of their playmaker 10 at Hamilton seems to have fired the boys up. It might just be the year of the Conts. 1-1 Hamilton on pens

Conn-Tufts: Definitely the toughest matchup to call. 7 on Conn does whatever he wants, video game player. The boys at Conn also don't have to waste energy doing work or going to class so that definitely helps. Tufts is obviously stacked and just seem to find a way to win. However, I think the Jumbos might have spent too much time showing off their rings to the 'cac 8s at mixers and not enough getting into a groove going into tournament play. 2-1 Conn in OT

[Sandon Mibut]

Yeah I'd say NESCAC has seven locks for the tourney at this point because every remaining game is contested between two mega-high NPI teams.  Amherst is almost surely in with a tie or a win vs. Middlebury, and since Midd's NPI is so massive, Amherst has a very good chance of being in with a loss, which might not actually hurt it at all. 

I agree with calling Amherst a likely in but not quite a lock. With an overall NPI of 55.933 based on 15 games played, adding Middlebury's loss value of 51.241 from the most recent official NPI release as a hypothetical 16th result and doing the napkin math puts Amherst with an NPI of 55.640. Only about a 0.3 drop.

My calculations for Amherst this weekend. Win or tie should make them a lock, but a loss would leave them on the chopping block. #33 was the highest rank team in 2025 to not get an at-large bid; #34 was the first team to miss the cut in 2024.

56.872 = 18th on today's list. Win.
56.256 = 25th on today's list. Tie.
55.640 = 33rd on today's list. Loss.

[Futbolguy]

Agreed  -as  Midd fan I would much rather see Conn or Hamilton than Amherst in round 1.  But again, if Am tries their same game plan as they did in regular season (i.e. hack attack), I expect the refs will be much more diligent than the home refs were back in September.  Regardless, look forward to this match!

[Sandon Mibut]

Agreed  -as  Midd fan I would much rather see Conn or Hamilton than Amherst in round 1.  But again, if Am tries their same game plan as they did in regular season (i.e. hack attack), I expect the refs will be much more diligent than the home refs were back in September.  Regardless, look forward to this match!

No shade at Hamilton but I feel like Bowdoin got the best draw.


Amherst are the epitome of "wild card" or perhaps loose cannon is more apt. Are they gonna send your players off to ACL surgery on stretchers? Score 3? 5+ cards?

Hopefully no one gets injured.

Everyone likely thinking about hosting 1st round pods and/or securing 2nd weekend home games. Crazy, as always for NESCAC, at this time of year. Any win is big at this point.

[Earl2]

Conn-Tufts: Definitely the toughest matchup to call. 7 on Conn does whatever he wants, video game player. The boys at Conn also don't have to waste energy doing work or going to class so that definitely helps. Tufts is obviously stacked and just seem to find a way to win. However, I think the Jumbos might have spent too much time showing off their rings to the 'cac 8s at mixers and not enough getting into a groove going into tournament play. 2-1 Conn in OT

A yellow card is being show to CACtion as a result of the shade being present to the young men at Conn and their perceived lack of academic prowess. Further, whether or not the 5 time national champion tufts Jumbos took a little longer to start peaking due other outside interests (summer IB internships, research projects with PIs, Medical School apps) I suspect they are prepared to play for the bigger prize which is a deep run in the NCAAs. Williams was on the receiving end of a focused Jumbos team. Its war time...

[Newenglander]

Agreed  -as  Midd fan I would much rather see Conn or Hamilton than Amherst in round 1.  But again, if Am tries their same game plan as they did in regular season (i.e. hack attack), I expect the refs will be much more diligent than the home refs were back in September.  Regardless, look forward to this match!

Conn is an interesting choice based on Conference playoff results...

21- Finalist
22 - Finalist
23 - Semis
24 - Champs
25 - Finalist

[MunnyTim]

Earl - as a Camel, I appreciate and applaud the delivery of the yellow card to CACtion.  While it was humorous (we can't take ourselves super seriously all the time), it was one of those professional fouls that deserved a yellow.

Very curious to see how this weekend's games go.  Amherst at Midd will be super interesting.  As I listened to the end of the Amherst - Trinity game Tuesday night, the Amherst announcer was sure to note that the Mammoths enter the tourney on an eight match unbeaten streak.

Wes at Williams - Wes does not appear to be the same team without #8 Saeed.  Not sure what the scoop is there, but he has been missing since Oct 10th. 

Bowdoin does what Bowdoin does - not sure the Continentals have enough scoring prowess to convert the possession they will likely have.  And then the Polar Bears will hit them on a counter and then the game really tilts in their favor.

Conn versus the defending national champs in the Jumbos.  Conn is a bit beat up at the moment, so we will see. And we all know the quality of the Jumbos roster.

Hard to see the semis and finals being anywhere but Midd or Williams - any other thoughts?

[SimpleCoach]

Earl - as a Camel, I appreciate and applaud the delivery of the yellow card to CACtion.  While it was humorous (we can't take ourselves super seriously all the time), it was one of those professional fouls that deserved a yellow.

Professional foul or not, there are some who might call it DOGSO.  Under stricter interpretations, that could have been a straight red.

SC.

[MunnyTim]

Just trying not to take ourselves, or things said on an internet messaging board, too seriously.  Life is too short to engage to get too worked up over things like that!

[headmaster]

Beautiful day here in New London. Jumbos up 1-0 but Conn with a bunch of chances towards the end of the first half. Looks like Canfin for the jumbos is not suited up and did not play in their final regular season game against Bowdoin. If serious, the All-American and 2025 NCAA tourney's most outstanding offensive player would be a huge loss for the Jumbos. Time for other guys to step up and Will Nicholas looks ready for the moment with a great finish to put the Jumbos up 1-0 in this one.

[jumpshot]

As I predicted, amHerst tops Midd 3-2, despite Midd's 30 shots, 18 corners, by resorting to 5 yellow cards and 12 fouls. Be wary of rock throwers ....

[Sandon Mibut]

Score 3? 5+ cards?

✅ and ✅


I guess it's Williams back to #1

Amherst should now be a lock for NCAA tourney and NESCAC likely to have 8 teams in.

[CacEnthusiast10]

What a performance from Amherst. If they continue to play like that they could be dangerous going forward. Midd need to figure it out going into the national tournament coming off 2 losses in a row.