NESCAC

[stlawus]

Admittedly, I don't understand the NPI. Explain it to me like I'm 5. How does a team with a losing record and only 5 wins, only one of which was against a decent team, sit on the bubble?

Since SOS is 85% of the of NPI formula, if you have one decent win it does extremely heavy lifting especially since it comes with extra NPI benefit from a quality win bonus.  Also since so many teams are top 10 in NPI on their schedule, the loss value against those teams is barely below their own NPI value so they don't get dinged a lot for losing.  It's just a circular chain of nonsense by virtue of simply being in the NESCAC.  A tie is usually worth around the value of your opponent's NPI, but Bates actually saw *benefit* from ties since the value was greater than their own NPI.  So they were essentially getting credited for a full win despite tying.   I have no idea why these were the dials to start, they were the biggest outlier out of all of the sports. NPI just means NESCAC Protection Index.  Thankfully they are weighing ties more towards a loss next year so some of this should be taken care of.

[SierraFD3soccer]

So the NPI right now is like in the old days when ties counted for 1 and wins 2?? That is what it sounds like, but will change?

[stlawus]

So the NPI right now is like in the old days when ties counted for 1 and wins 2?? That is what it sounds like, but will change?

Sort of, it does for the NESCAC at least lol. But next year instead of a tie being worth half a win and half a loss it will be worth .6 loss/.4 win.

[2Short2Slow]

The fact that Bates and Trinity were even close is unbelievable. NPI should be limited to regular season games and post-season conf tournaments should only be for the auto-bid and bragging rights. Then teams can be rewarded for scheduling tougher opponents but this mushrooming effect of the NESCAC tournament will be eliminated.  Removing the conf tourney from the NPI would also clean up the multiple games against one good opponent that skew the NPI (e.g Lynchburg vs W&L 3x this year??). The fact that SUNY Oneonta is in with their best win against NPI #88 shows that additional adjustments are needed to the algorithm.

[VASoccerDad]

The fact that Bates and Trinity were even close is unbelievable. NPI should be limited to regular season games and post-season conf tournaments should only be for the auto-bid and bragging rights. Then teams can be rewarded for scheduling tougher opponents but this mushrooming effect of the NESCAC tournament will be eliminated.  Removing the conf tourney from the NPI would also clean up the multiple games against one good opponent that skew the NPI (e.g Lynchburg vs W&L 3x this year??). The fact that SUNY Oneonta is in with their best win against NPI #88 shows that additional adjustments are needed to the algorithm.

I actually really like this idea. The UAA, an equally tough conference with TONS of travel, does not have a conference tournament due to the added travel expenses of hosting in one location. Because of that, their NPI doesn't get the bump that the NESCAC's and others may get from playing another round of tough competition.

I wonder if eliminating NPI points from tournaments has ever been explored?

[Kuiper]

The fact that Bates and Trinity were even close is unbelievable. NPI should be limited to regular season games and post-season conf tournaments should only be for the auto-bid and bragging rights. Then teams can be rewarded for scheduling tougher opponents but this mushrooming effect of the NESCAC tournament will be eliminated.  Removing the conf tourney from the NPI would also clean up the multiple games against one good opponent that skew the NPI (e.g Lynchburg vs W&L 3x this year??). The fact that SUNY Oneonta is in with their best win against NPI #88 shows that additional adjustments are needed to the algorithm.

I actually really like this idea. The UAA, an equally tough conference with TONS of travel, does not have a conference tournament due to the added travel expenses of hosting in one location. Because of that, their NPI doesn't get the bump that the NESCAC's and others may get from playing another round of tough competition.

I wonder if eliminating NPI points from tournaments has ever been explored?

I'm not sure it would make much difference if the NPI didn't count conference tournament games.  Unless they moved up the NCAA tournament dates for everyone (which, I think, SimpleCoach has suggested before), then conferences would replace the conference tournament, or earlier rounds of it, with more regular season conference games.  That's why both the UAA and NWC - two conferences that don't have end of season tournaments - had regular season games last week while other conferences were playing tournament games.  NESCAC would do the same and get the same NPI boost from playing more games against each other.

My very "hot take" is that declining NCAA finances (or the split off of top football/basketball conferences) and a growing divergence between D3 school budgets may eventually push D3 in the other direction.  Eliminate the NCAA tournament and only hold conference tournaments.  Schools already form conferences with teams with which they can be competitive because of similar sizes and finances, often with geography and reduced travel prioritized.  The NCAA tournament, much like national tournaments in big time youth club soccer, has always been a myth, creating the illusion of being suitable for determining the "best" team in America, while at the same time excluding many top teams because they adhere to a universality principle that gives every conference, no matter how weak, one automatic spot. 

The national tournament is therefore expensive, takes kids away from school for extreme travel at the most difficult time in the semester academically, and creates perverse incentives to form far-flung conferences and to play schools far away during the non-conference game portion of the regular season.  This is all with an eye to increasing your school's chances of making the NCAA tournament and potentially being crowned "mythical" national champion in a tournament that tries to serve two goals (excellence and universality) and ends up serving neither.

[SierraFD3soccer]

The national tournament is therefore expensive, takes kids away from school for extreme travel at the most difficult time in the semester academically, and creates perverse incentives to form far-flung conferences and to play schools far away during the non-conference game portion of the regular season.  This is all with an eye to increasing your school's chances of making the NCAA tournament and potentially being crowned "mythical" national champion in a tournament that tries to serve two goals (excellence and universality) and ends up serving neither.

Split seasons???  Hahahaha

[Earl2]

T

My very "hot take" is that declining NCAA finances (or the split off of top football/basketball conferences) and a growing divergence between D3 school budgets may eventually push D3 in the other direction.  Eliminate the NCAA tournament and only hold conference tournaments.  Schools already form conferences with teams with which they can be competitive because of similar sizes and finances, often with geography and reduced travel prioritized.  The NCAA tournament, much like national tournaments in big time youth club soccer, has always been a myth, creating the illusion of being suitable for determining the "best" team in America, while at the same time excluding many top teams because they adhere to a universality principle that gives every conference, no matter how weak, one automatic spot. 

The national tournament is therefore expensive, takes kids away from school for extreme travel at the most difficult time in the semester academically, and creates perverse incentives to form far-flung conferences and to play schools far away during the non-conference game portion of the regular season.  This is all with an eye to increasing your school's chances of making the NCAA tournament and potentially being crowned "mythical" national champion in a tournament that tries to serve two goals (excellence and universality) and ends up serving neither.

While the logistical and academic challenges are real, conference tournaments add tremendous value to the college experience for student-athletes and their families. They create unforgettable memories, foster deep school spirit, and give players a well-earned stage to compete for something meaningful.

That said, the academic stress is definitely real. But student-athletes sign up for both school and sports, and learning to balance both is part of the deal. Colleges offer plenty of support like tutors and office hours when things get tough. If a student simply can't manage the workload, the answer isn't scaling back the experience for everyone else—it's taking advantage of those resources or reevaluating participation. Navigating that packed schedule builds real-world discipline that stays with them long after graduation.

[HamiltonUltra]

Admittedly, I don't understand the NPI. Explain it to me like I'm 5. How does a team with a losing record and only 5 wins, only one of which was against a decent team, sit on the bubble?

Since SOS is 85% of the of NPI formula, if you have one decent win it does extremely heavy lifting especially since it comes with extra NPI benefit from a quality win bonus.  Also since so many teams are top 10 in NPI on their schedule, the loss value against those teams is barely below their own NPI value so they don't get dinged a lot for losing.  It's just a circular chain of nonsense by virtue of simply being in the NESCAC.  A tie is usually worth around the value of your opponent's NPI, but Bates actually saw *benefit* from ties since the value was greater than their own NPI.  So they were essentially getting credited for a full win despite tying.   I have no idea why these were the dials to start, they were the biggest outlier out of all of the sports. NPI just means NESCAC Protection Index.  Thankfully they are weighing ties more towards a loss next year so some of this should be taken care of.

As a former player who graduated just before the institution of NPI, it was always frustrating to see the number of completely uncompetitive tournament games. The NESCAC is undoubtedly the best conference in the country top to bottom. It is hard to otherwise quantify the physical and mental impact of playing 8 of the top 11 teams each week, plus often ranked out of conference opponents. Trinity beat a Hamilton team that ended up at 6, Bates beat 11th ranked Wesleyan while also drawing with Hamilton, Conn, Amherst, and Middlebury who make up 4 of the top 6. Looking at Oneonta's schedule, their best result is probably their draw against 16th ranked SLU who had an outstanding season, but also dropped results to the 131st and 44th ranked teams. NPI's weight toward strength of schedule ensures that the best teams get to play during the business end of the season and give us quantifiable differences to debate rather than the vague outcomes of the committee decision. The NESCAC is not just an elite conference by name, it has accounted for 9 of the last 12 teams to play in the National Championship game and 7 of the last 10 national champions.

This isn't to say that NESCAC teams can't be beat--Hamilton drew with 65th ranked Clarkson earlier in the season as well as some lopsided defeats to Williams and Tufts--but it is to say that the conference gets additional NPI weight because it has earned it over the last decade plus. Personally, I'd love to see SLU and Hamilton playing in the regular season due to geography and the level of the two programs. Hopefully we get to see more of these matchups with the influence of NPI.

[nescac1]

The NESCAC squads were split pretty equally between the four brackets, as their seeding suggested would happen, and there is certainly a solid chance of another all-NESCAC championship the way the bracket is aligned. 

Williams and Amherst have an opportunity for an elite 8 rubber match in one bracket, but of course there are some other strong teams they have to get past first.  Amherst-Messiah as a potential second-round matchup is fun even if not the Messiah of old.  Williams seems very likely to be hosting until they lose.  Tufts has a difficult bracket and I assume would have to win on the road in the midwest against, likely, St. Olaf, Calvin, or UChicago to make the Final Four, but Tufts has proven to be very difficult to beat in post-season games. 

On the other side of the bracket, I think Middlebury is likely to host until it loses and seems like it has the most favorable bracket of the four NESCAC teams, with Rowan, Montclair State and Hamilton probably the biggest threats in its quarter of the bracket, but Midd has to like its draw.  Conn, Bowdoin and Wesleyan are all in a pretty loaded quarter of the draw along with Lynchburg, Carnegie Mellon, and Scranton, some fun potential NESCAC battles down the road in that bracket if they survive.  Conn seems likely to host until it loses, as well.