FB: Southern Athletic Association

[Ron Boerger]

Does Maryville have the dubious honor of being the best 0-3 in the country after the Heidelberg win at Mount Union?

Believe it or not, Heidelberg is 3-0/2-0 OAC. 

[The Third Division]

Saw LaGrange for the 2nd week in a row against an SAA opponent - it was very hot today (as it likely was many other places) - the 1st 5-10 minutes of the 1stquarter had my brain telling me to fall over everytime i went from squatting to standing up - this subsided as I got used to the heat, made sure I was hydrated, and thankfully there was a slow breeze.

Other than that, LaGrange won this one on a missed Centre field goal.

[Ron Boerger]

A lot of that (missed FGs) going on yesterday.  And it's not like they were all long - this one was a 33-yard attempt.

The game story for the Centre-LaGrange game says the Colonels play Bridgewater next week as part of the "Southern Athletic Association/Old Dominion Athletic Conference Challenge" which to the best of my knowledge hasn't been a thing for years (a one-year series due to B-SC's failure in 2024).  RMC-Maryville yesterday is the only other instance of the two conferences squaring off before conference play begins this season. 

[Ron Boerger]

This week's SP+ predictions:

• CMU 16.0, @Berry 36.3
• Maryville 16.4, @RMC 37.2
• NC Wesleyan 33.9, @Sewanee 17.0
• LaGrange 16.3, @Centre 18.5
• Hendrix 18.0, @Millsaps 37.9
• Southwestern 26.0, @Schreiner 27.8
• PLU 8.2, @Trinity 42.9

This week's Hansen predictions:

• CMU 17.5, @Berry 30.0
• Maryville 14.3, @RMC 31.3
• NC Wesleyan 30.8, @Sewanee 21.5
• LaGrange 17.5, @Centre 17.2
• Hendrix 25.8, @Millsaps 40.9
• Southwestern 41.3, @Schreiner 19.8
• PLU 15.3, @Trinity 35.7

The two differ on LaGrange-Centre and much more noticeably on Southwestern-Schreiner, where Hansen only gives the Mountaineers an 8.5% chance of winning.

Actual results:

• Berry 16, CMU 10
• RMC 42, Maryville 14
• LaGrange 16, Centre 14
• Hendrix 36, Millsaps 27
• Sewanee 24, NC Wesleyan 17
• Trinity 24, PLU 6
• Schreiner 31, Southwestern 28

SP+ 4-3 (missed Sewanee by a lot, LaGrange, Hendrix by a lot; overstated Berry and Trinity), Hansen 4-3 (missed Sewanee, Hendrix and Southwestern by a lot; overstated Berry).

Another unimpressive week as the conference goes 3-4 and none of the wins were what you could call impressive.  Berry continues to skate by, Trinity can't find its passing game (though its run defense continues to be hella stout, giving up 24 yards of which 20 came on a QB scramble), Southwestern manages to lose to a first year team, giving up a game-winning drive with under two minutes to go, Millsaps apparently forgot what they did in their first two games.  A second-place 9-1 Berry or Trinity still might get a bid, but anyone else will have to win the conference to have a shot at the playoffs as the conference NPIs are dreadful.  Courtesy D3Datacast:

7. Berry
9. Trinity
109. Millsaps
128. Sewanee
201. Maryville
207. Centre
208. Southwestern
232. Rhodes

(240 teams)

[tigerguy]

Horn went out with what looked like a leg injury, possibly a hamstring or tendon.  He went to the tent for a while, came out but did not return.

Was hoping this was just cramping but agree Horn appeared to pull up before end of the run so looking like he may be out a few weeks. Hondo hadn't played well the first two weeks in spot time, but it is handy to have a backup qb that has a full season of starts under his belt.

[Ron Boerger]

Only two games in the SAA this week, neither should be close:

Hansen Ratings:

• @Centre 23.6 Bridgewater 9.6 - Colonels with an 81.9% chance to win
• @Rhodes 16.2 Maryville 37.6 - Scots with a 91.5% chance

SP+:

• @Centre 24.5 Bridgewater 12.6
• @Rhodes 19.9 Maryville 35.6

[Ron Boerger]

For those interested in the finer details:

SP+

| School |	| SP + |	| Rank |	| Offense |	| Rank |	| Defense |	| Rank |
Trinity(TX)	29.5	16	35.7	51	6.2	5
Berry	26.0	26	34.8	54	8.8	9
Millsaps	7.0	93	31.3	79	24.4	116
Centre	4.5	101	17.6	179	13.1	27
Maryville (TN)	-6.4	154	25.8	126	32.3	182
Southwestern	-9.0	164	19.6	165	28.6	149
Sewanee	-12.9	177	21.1	154	34.0	191
Rhodes	-24.7	220	14.1	202	38.8	218

All SAA schools went down in the SP+ rankings after last week's games, with the exception of Sewanee which rose 20 places.  Berry (-10), Millsaps (-25), and Maryville (-42) all saw double-digit drops.

Alma (81st; 9.9 / 32.4 / 22.5) is the highest-ranked 0-3 team, since the question was asked.

[MCScots2013]

There's a video delay on Flo for the MC-Rhodes game. Fun to hear the result of the play before the snap.

[MCScots2013]

That game could not have come at a better time. Rhodes is about as bad of a team I've seen in a long time. Good to get the team their first victory. Still, lots to clean up. 31-3 at half and ended 38-3. Dabrowski had a freshman moment and coughed the ball up around the Rhodes 20 with a minute in the half to give them their one score.

296 yards in the air for Dabrowksi. Hoping his first 300 yard game comes next week under the lights at Centre!

(Centre just wrapped up blasting Bridgewater. Ouch.)

[Ron Boerger]

Only two games in the SAA this week, neither should be close:

Hansen Ratings:

• @Centre 23.6 Bridgewater 9.6 - Colonels with an 81.9% chance to win
• @Rhodes 16.2 Maryville 37.6 - Scots with a 91.5% chance

SP+:

• @Centre 24.5 Bridgewater 12.6
• @Rhodes 19.9 Maryville 35.6

Actual:
Maryville 38 DustyRhodes 3
Centre 45 WaterWayUnderTheBridge 0

2-0 for both services as expected given the projected MOVs.

Let's get serious (with all due regard to M'ville and Rhodes) with the first full week of SAA competition:

Hansen Ratings:

• Berry 14.1, @Trinity 25.2 [TU 75.7% to win]
• Southwestern 30.2, @Sewanee 21.0 [SW 72.2% to win]
• Rhodes 12.8, @Millsaps 42.8 [MC 97.1% to win]
• Maryville 14.1, @Centre 23.5 [CC 72.3% to win

Hansen has Berry @Trinity as his #8 game of the week (reflecting combined strength of the two teams)

SP+:

• Berry 18.1, @Trinity 23.7
• Southwestern 26.3, @Sewanee 25.1
• Rhodes 6.1, @Millsaps 46.0
• Maryville 16.2, @Centre 26.5

All have the same picks but SP+ has SW/Sewanee as almost a tossup and based on what I've seen of Southwestern I'd think it'll be closer than Massey predicts.

Trinity has a big question mark at QB; yes, they have Hondo Franklin, he of last year's run to the third-round of the NCAAs, should Welker Horn be unable to play, but that's also the same Hondo Franklin that was 0-2 against Berry last season.

[tigerguy]

I am as big a Trinity homer as they come, but I am not convinced this team is remotely close (as of now) to the Top 10-15 ranking they are receiving in the latest polls. Yes, their run defense has been excellent thus far (#5 in nation), but that is a collective ranking after facing the 69, 154, and 229th ranked rush offenses in the country.

The offense has not looked good as a collective unit. Of course, I think the woes in the passing game are largely tied to not having their top two receivers due to early injuries. And yes, the rushing offense has continued to churn nicely and I love the depth Urban has assembled there. But unless the receiving corp returns to full strength, I do not see this offense being able to keep up against strong teams. If Tavarez and Hancock do return (and either Hondo/Horn can get back in a groove) then things could get interesting.

This week against Berry will tell me a lot about Trinity in its current form. I'm assuming Hondo will be starting and neither Tavarez/Hancock will return - but let me know if anyone else has better intel. Berry lost a chunk of their team from last year and that shows in their first few close results, but they nevertheless remain a solid rushing team that will present the first real test for Trinity's front line.