FB: Southern Athletic Association

[Ralph Turner]

According to the SAA tie-breakers, might Maryville have the Pool A bid in a three-way if they win out?

[Ron Boerger]

According to the SAA tie-breakers, might Maryville have the Pool A bid in a three-way if they win out?

In a three-way Berry, Maryville, Trinity tie (Millsaps loses to MV in this scenario) the second tie-breaker is 2 points for a W against co-champs, 1 against everyone else in conference play:

• Berry would get 2 points for beating Maryville (losing to Trinity)
• Maryville would get 2 points for beating Trinity (losing to Berry)
• Trinity would get 2 points for beating Berry (losing to Maryville)

• Berry gets 5 points for beating everyone else
• Maryville gets 5 points for beating everyone else
• Trinity gets 5 points for beating everyone else

All total 7 points, so third tie breaker can't apply.

So no, unless I miss something I don't see it.  Fourth tie-breaker is NPI which favors Berry given that they're 16th to Trinity's 22nd currently and the Tigers don't have an opportunity to pick up a quality win whereas Berry might get one from Millsaps (with the Majors at 54.036, an away win would be worth nearly 60 points and the QWB threshold is at 54.0).  Regardless, Millsaps is a better opponent than Centre and it's likely none of the three remaining games for Trinity get calculated in their NPI even if they win out as they would *lower* their NPI (a win at Centre right now is worth less than 50 points vs. Trinity's NPI of 66.540). 

The SAA really should insert a tiebreaker between current 3 and 4:  "If both parts of section 2 are applied and three teams are still tied, each team will be awarded one point for each victory against Division III competition during the regular season.  If two teams are still tied, the formula will revert to section 1."   But I guess with only six teams next year - if Maryville affiliates - the chances of a three-way tie will be smaller. 

[MCScots2013]

Yesterday was kinda what I expected—a letdown after a big upset. Huge crowd, fun tailgates. Wish the football was better.

Defense played very well. 7 of the Berry points came from a scoop and score, couple more short fields and we held them to two FGs. One long pass to start the second half when we got caught looking in the backfield on a scramble.

Our O Line needs some work. Good grief. Dabrowski had absolutely zero time to work with.

While yesterday was not what I was hoping for, the fact that we could have a 27-7 loss against a Top 20 team and it's a true disappointment shows how far we've come as a program. Plenty of old guys (early 70s classes) said they'd never thought in a million years we'd have the atmosphere on game days like we have now.

Update on the "phases":
-last week's practice facility announcement is Phase 1
-Phase 2 will be transforming the old pool area within Cooper to new football locker rooms and offices. I'm sure the other sports will be happy reaping the benefits of that. We're in the way currently.
-Phase 3 will be something with the game field. Nothing mentioned but sounds like this will not be a piecemeal thing. Probably won't hear anything until fully funded.

[Ron Boerger]

Looking back at last week's projections and those for the upcoming week:

Hansen Ratings:

• @Maryville 20.6, Berry 25.2 (BC 62.0% to win)
• @Millsaps 20.1, Trinity 29.5 (TU 72.8%)
• @Centre 38.8, Sewanee 9.1 (CC 97.0%)
• @Southwestern 42.9, Rhodes 18.8 (SU 93.4%)

SP +:

• @Maryville 15.1, Berry 33.4
• @Millsaps 17.7, Trinity 30.6
• @Centre 39.1, Sewanee 9.0
• @Southwestern 35.7, Rhodes 15.7

Here, it looks like Hansen is reacting more quickly to recent results and IMO the top two games on the schedule will be closer than SP+ predicts.  The potential is there for both home teams to upset their opponents.

According to the D3FB podcast, Millsaps QB Grant Bizjack, injured early in the season, returned for the first time in mop-up time against Sewanee so you'd expect him to be available against Trinity.  Then again, Carl Reed Jr. (33-50-0 for 599 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs)  and Quez Goss (28-52-1, 465/6 TDs) have done pretty well in his absence so that may not be needed.

Actual results:

• Berry 27, @Maryville 7
• Trinity 28, @Millsaps 21
• @Centre 69, Sewanee 30
• @Southwestern 44, Rhodes 20

Models were pretty close, with SP+ closer on Berry-Maryville, Hansen on Trinity-Millsaps. And had Carl Reed Jr. been able to play the entire game, Millsaps may have gotten the win as Bisjack was ineffective on all his drives except his last, and even that one was started by Reed who took them beyond midfield and ended in a fourth-down interception.

Next week:

Hansen Ratings:

• Millsaps 38.6, @Southwestern 24.7 (MC 81.4% to win)
• Sewanee 1.9, @Trinity 49.1 (TU 99.8%)
• Centre 13.8, @Berry 28.5 (BC 82.7%)
• Hendrix 42.7, @Rhodes 24.9 (HC 87.4%) non-conference

SP+:.

• Millsaps 37.4, @Southwestern 18.2
• Sewanee 1.9, @Trinity 51.0
• Centre 13.6, @Berry 32.9
• Hendrix 43.2, @Rhodes 16.8 non-conference

Should be a pretty mundane week in the SAA.  I'll be surprised if Rhodes stays as close as Hansen thinks (though they were within 23-20 of Southwestern after three before giving up 21 unanswered) and it will be interesting to see what Centre does coming off their shellacking of Sewanee - they seem to run up the score on inferior teams and lose fairly close games to better ones.  Overall I like SP+ better this week.

[Hawks88]

-Phase 3 will be something with the game field. Nothing mentioned but sounds like this will not be a piecemeal thing. Probably won't hear anything until fully funded.

Artificial Turf? Probably inevitable but I hope it stays grass. There aren't many left.

[tigerguy]

Trinity wins almost despite themselves today - when you don't attempt a 22-yard FG that would give you a three-score lead with over half the fourth quarter gone, your kicking game is not in a good place.  Have to think Carl Reed Jr. was fighting an injury today as he was clearly the more impactful QB and why would you take him out on the last drive?  Flo froze right at the two minute warning and when it came back Bisjack was in so I couldn't see what happened. 

The kicking game is truly bizarre right now. Runyan is not a bad kicker and has a good leg, but the recent issues need to be fixed. I wouldn't doubt that part of it is him rushing because he is worried about getting blocked, which its own separate issue. On a related note, Logan Hansen recently did an analysis of when D3 teams should kick versus punt or go for it. He concluded that unless you have one of the 10 best kickers in D3, teams should never kick: https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/2113329990528123327?s=20

Ron - I share the confusion over why Carl Reed Jr. was not the featured qb. We did not get to see a ton of his arm (although he looks like he can sling it), but boy is he fast. At this level, those kinds of qbs are incredibly difficult to contain (See North Central Luke Lehnen), so I was surprised they did not stick with him consistently.

The guys over at D3datacast still project Trinity making the field as an at large candidate and notes Berry as likely AQ winner, which matches Ron's analysis of the tie-breaker rules that he spared the rest of us from having to look through. https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

[MCScots2013]

-Phase 3 will be something with the game field. Nothing mentioned but sounds like this will not be a piecemeal thing. Probably won't hear anything until fully funded.

Artificial Turf? Probably inevitable but I hope it stays grass. There aren't many left.

I'd bet it stays grass.  We might be the only school in America next year with lights and turf on the practice field with no lights and grass on game field, but Pat can fact check me again if he would like

I'm a little surprised we are using the gift to turf the practice fields (unless that was a condition, of course).  Maryville has, let's say, a strong and vocal environmentalist faction and they aren't fans of artificial turf or the rubber pellets needed on the field.  Having a turfed track infield probably caused a fuss; hate it see what it will be like this winter when they start on the practice field.

I think Phase 3 will be lights and a facelift (fencing, press box (sorely needed...), concessions and restroom redo) and a new scoreboard to help with advertising revenue. Keeping the grass helps the cost of the project assuming they don't have to tear it up to do the other work.

[Patrick Coleman]

-Phase 3 will be something with the game field. Nothing mentioned but sounds like this will not be a piecemeal thing. Probably won't hear anything until fully funded.

Artificial Turf? Probably inevitable but I hope it stays grass. There aren't many left.

I'd bet it stays grass.  We might be the only school in America next year with lights and turf on the practice field with no lights and grass on game field, but Pat can fact check me again if he would like

I think Wesleyan would still qualify as that, but I don't know how we would define a practice field.

[MCScots2013]

I'll take that as a rare occurrence.

Let's assume most schools have a practice field/area not used for games.  Also, assuming regulation size plus a few square feet for additional space and you have 2 acres set aside for said practices. Highest priced practice fields based on the market value for 2 acres of land?  I'm going Catholic or Gallaudet, take-your-pick SCIAC...maybe UChicago?

[Patrick Coleman]

Doesn't look like SUNY-Maritime has a practice field, which makes sense, because I'm sure cost per acre on Throgs Neck in NYC is crazy.

UChicago, perhaps Claremont, Lake Forest College in the rich Chicago suburbs or North Park on Chicago's north side -- take a look at that tiny athletics space and see how they've maximized what they can do. Doesn't seem like the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy has a separate practice field, again, waterfront property, this on Long Island.

Just off the top of my head.

[MCScots2013]

That's turning lemons into lemonade.  Wikipedia says campus is just 33 acres.  Got 'em packed in there tight!

North Park: 79.5 students/acre
Berry: 0.09 student/acre