NCAC--2014

[gobash83]

Congrats to Denison on its big non-conference win (1-0) over Case.  In addition to proving me wrong, it may have revived the slight possibility of the NCAC being in the hunt for a Pool C bid, depending on how the conference schedule and tournament play out over the next 14 days. 

In the other Saturday matches, Allegheny also proved me wrong by winning at DePauw 1-0 in a well-played, close match. Wittenberg beat Wooster as I predicted, though more handily than expected (4-1).  Kenyon beat Hiram (2-1) and Oberlin did the same against OWU (1-0).  I got the right results again, though the scores were off.

In the race for the conference tournament, Kenyon (5-1-0) and Allegheny (5-1-0) are at 15 points, then Denison (4-2-0) and Wittenberg (4-2-0) are 12 points. Wooster is next with 10 points (3-3-1), then Oberlin with 9 (3-3-0), DePauw with 8 (2-2-2), Hiram with 1 (0-6-1) and OWU with 0 (0-6). 

The conference schedule wraps up this week with games on Tuesday and Saturday.  On Tuesday, DePauw visits Wittenberg, Kenyon goes to OWU, Denison hosts Oberlin and Wooster is at Allegheny.  I think the new Tigers beat the old Tigers 2-1, Kenyon wins 2-0, Denison wins 2-0, and Allegheny prevails 3-0.

Saturday brings the end of the regular season with Denison at DePauw, Wittenberg goes to Allegheny, Kenyon visiting Oberlin, and Ohio Wesleyan traveling to Hiram. I will make my picks before then.

Here is to a good week and great soccer.   

[gobash83]

Congrats to Denison (#5), Allegheny (#7), and Kenyon (ARV) for making the NSCAA Great Lakes rankings this week. Good moves by both Denison and Allegheny, while Kenyon's loss to Wittenberg likely hurt them.  With the next NCAA Regional Ranking tomorrow, Denison should be in pretty good shape, as it will have 4 wins over regionally ranked opponents (Hanover, Case, Ohio Northern, and Otterbein) and Case will likely have bumped up its SOS (though OWU may have pushed it down).   Allegheny will have 1 win over a regionally ranked opponent--Denison.  It will be interesting to see if Allegheny remains ahead of Denison by virtue of that win or if Denison jumps Allegheny by having beaten the higher ranked Case and the greater number of victories over regionally ranked opponents.

As I said earlier, the Denison win over Case may have opened the door to a second NCAC bid to the NCAA, depending how this week and the tournament play out--though there is a lot of soccer to be played and plenty of UAA, NESCAC, and CCIW schools (among others) in contention for the at-large spots as well. 

[gobash83]

We received clarity in the race for the conference tournament, with Kenyon (6-1-0 after beating OWU 3-1), Allegheny (6-1-0 after beating Wooster 1-0), and Denison (5-2-0 after beating Oberlin 5-0) all clinching spots tonight.  DePauw beat Wittenberg 1-0 to tighten the race for the fourth spot.  Right now, depending on the outcome of Saturday's matches, Wittenberg (4-3-0), DePauw (3-2-2) and Oberlin (3-4) all have a chance to secure the final berth.  Wooster at 3-4-1 (and done for the season), Hiram at 0-6-1 and OWU at 0-7 will be on the outside looking in. 

While I picked the winners correctly tonight, I didn't get any scores correct. 

On Saturday, Wittenberg controls its own fate as a win at Allegheny clinches the last spot for the Tigers.  Anything less than that and the permutations start to multiply as a tie opens the door for DePauw and a loss opens the door for both DePauw and Oberlin. 

On the other hand, Oberlin must win over Kenyon to get in the mix for the final spot or it is out for sure. If Oberlin wins and both Witt and DePauw lose, the Yeowomen make the field by virtue of holding the tie-breaker over Witt (assuming that the tie-breaker is the H2H result). 

DePauw needs points on Saturday against Denison.  A win over the Big Red and a Witt tie or loss to the Gators puts DePauw in the tournament. A tie with Denison and a Witt loss leaves the conference's Tigers tied, with DePauw holding the tie-breaker based on H2H (again, I think that's the tie-breaker). A DePauw win or tie, Oberlin win and Wittenberg loss puts DePauw in either by points or by holding the H2H over Oberlin. 

As for tournament seeding, whoever comes out of the DePauw, Oberlin, and Wittenberg tangle will be the fourth seed and on the road.  Also, I think that Denison is locked in as the third seed and traveling as well, as best it can do is tie either Kenyon or Allegheny and both own the H2H tie-break.  And so, both Kenyon and Allegheny are playing for the shot to host both rounds--a benefit that each would want. 

And finally, Hiram and OWU face off with each having the chance to end their season with their first conference win.  That would be a fitting ending for challenging seasons for both squads and I am sure both will play hard to end on a high note.

So it is safe to say that Saturday's games all have something riding on them and should be entertaining.

[gobash83]

Saturday brought the conclusion of the NCAC regular season with Kenyon finishing at the top of the table after beating Oberlin 2-0.  Allegheny finished second, ending the season with a 2-0 win over Wittenberg, which could have proven to be problematic for the Tigers.  However, third-place Denison came back from a 1-0 deficit with a goal in the 85th minute and a second in the 95th minute to beat DePauw 2-1, which put Wittenberg into the fourth spot in the conference tournament. In the last match of the day, Hiram earned its first conference win with a 1-0 victory over OWU.

Congratulations to all of the teams in the conference.  While there were some uncompetitive matches, most were tightly contested, which is good for the conference.  Now, the focus shifts to the tournament, with #1 seed Kenyon hosting Wittenberg and #2 seed Allegheny hosting Denison.  In these matches, I think we will see Kenyon and Allegheny prevail, with the Ladies winning 2-1 over the Tigers and the Gators once again defeating the Big Red 1-0 in another close match.

It will be interesting to see how the NCAA will treat the loser of the Allegheny/Denison tilt when it comes to a possible at-large bid. Last week, they were #3 and #4 in the Regional Rankings, behind CMU and Thomas More, both of whom have a strong chance to receive their respective conference's AQ.  While the loser today will have another loss, it will be to a regionally ranked opponent.  It may take the winner of the Allegheny/Denison match winning the NCAC tournament and Otterbein winning the OAC to allow the loser to have a shot at an at-large bid.

Needless to say, it will be interesting.  In the meantime, here's hoping for entertaining and safe play for everyone in their matches today.


 

[gobash83]

Now, the focus shifts to the tournament, with #1 seed Kenyon hosting Wittenberg and #2 seed Allegheny hosting Denison.  In these matches, I think we will see Kenyon and Allegheny prevail, with the Ladies winning 2-1 over the Tigers and the Gators once again defeating the Big Red 1-0 in another close match.

Well, I pick the winners but missed on the margins...badly.  I am surprised at how Allegheny took it to Denison in the second half of their match.  That may have pushed Denison out of the running for an at large bid, though we will have to wait and see what happens this weekend.

As for the conference final, I have picked Allegheny from the beginning to win the AQ and I am not going to change now.  Kenyon has had a successful season in the conference and challenged itself out of conference.  It deserves recognition for getting to this point and I think the program is going in the right direction (though it will be hard for the Ladies to replace Becca Romaine and the other talented seniors).  However, I think Allegheny is the better squad and see the Gators winning 3-2.

[gobash83]

Wrong on all counts.  Perhaps the appropriate way for my predictions to end.  Congrats to the Ladies of Kenyon on their conference title and bid to the NCAA tournament.  Other than a hiccup against Witt in the regular season (which was avenged in the conference tournament), Kenyon proved to be the best of the NCAC.

Good luck in the NCAA tournament!

[gobash83]

Mixed day for the conference with the champion, Kenyon beating #13 Emory 1-0 but Allegheny falling to #10 TCNJ 3-0.  Best of luck to the Ladies, as they tackle #9 Thomas More tomorrow.   

[gobash83]

Unfortunately, the season has ended for Kenyon and the conference as the Ladies fell 1-2 against Thomas More.  Congrats to Kenyon and Allegheny on making the tournament and representing the NCAC well.  Best of luck to all the seniors as they move on to their next experiences!

[SoccerLAN]

ALL-NCAC Women's Soccer Team selections are out:

OPOY - Romaine (KEN)
DPOY - Wallace (ALL)
NOTY - Wentzel (DEN)
COTY - Bryan (KEN)

First Team

Kenyon (4) -
Allegheny (3)
Denison (3)
Wittenberg (2)
Wooster (1)


Second Team

Hiram (3)
Depauw (3)
Denison (2)
Wittenberg (2)
Kenyon (1)
Wooster (1)
Oberlin (1)

Honorable Mention

Kenyon (2)
Allegheny (2)
Wooster (2)
DePauw (2)
Ohio Wesleyan (2)
Hiram (2)
Oberlin (2)
Wittenberg (1)
Denison (1)

Congratulations Ladies!!!!

[SoccerLAN]

2015 Pre Season Coach's Poll is out;

http://northcoast.org/sports/wsoc/2015-16/releases/PreseasonPoll

Denison
Allegheny
Kenyon
Wittenberg

Let the soccer season begin!