Mid-Atlantic Region 2016

[lastguyoffthebench]

I said in the summer that Lyco could afford 9 blemishes with this schedule... let's see what happens...   SOS/OWP is .688 (has to be a top 5 in the nation) with Messiah (likely twice AWAY), Stevens, Oneonta St AWAY, LVC...   NCAA Regional ranking is going to have them higher than we expect (assuming they beat the teams they are supposed to beat).     62% win percentage with an SOS around .665... they'd better be in the tournament considering how many times these UAA schools get the nod.

Which conference from the Mid-Atlantic is likely to have a two bid league; MACC or Landmark?  Could be a moot point with Lycoming already taking down Scranton. 

8 teams
Haverford and F&M
Messiah and Lycoming
E-town and (Scranton)
Eastern or Miseri (one bid league)
Cabrini
Morrisville St (NEAC)

[Mr.Right]

Just looking at the ETOWN's schedule I do not see more than 1 quality win on it. Are they for real this year? I have not seen them play and a 4-1 win over TCNJ is impressive but the tough games they have played they have either lost or tied. I also understand in a rivalry game you can throw the records out the window but I do not see them winning this game and frankly if they lose this game their Pool C chances might fly out the window with it.

I hear you, Mr. Right: I agree that Etown has more to prove tonight than Messiah, but the magnitude of this rivalry cannot be disregarded.  It's one of the greatest rivalries in all of D3 soccer, and every player knows it. I wish I could count Etown out, but I can't.

For example, a great Messiah team in 2006, led by four-time AA Kai Kasiguran, lost at home to Etown, 1-0.  They outshot Etown 16-1, including 8 SOG (one of them saved off the line), but just couldn't buy a goal.  I don't know whether the one goal was a PK--it might have been.  Dustin Shambach was the best keeper Messiah ever had, and it's hard to think he would otherwise give up a goal on the only shot.  If you saw the sweet sixteen game in Williamstown that year, Mr Right, then you will surely remember the truly unbelievable save that Shambach came up with to save their bacon in a scoreless tie.  So, I'm guessing that unassisted Etown goal was a PK. I was involved with a business event that evening so I missed seeing it, or I'd probably remember something like that. It happens.

I don't expect similar stats tonight--Etown will surely get more than one shot.  Messiah's back line doesn't include another JD Binger or even an Andy Rosamilia.  The only prediction I will make: both teams will score.

Here's the box for that 2006 game: http://www.messiah.edu/gomessiah/sports/mens_soccer/statistics/2006/ccsemi.htm

I remember the 2006 Sweet 16 tilt Williams v Messiah like it was yesterday. Williams caught Messiah off guard in the first 5 minutes with 2 GOLDEN opportunities to score but Brett Olsen and John Hillman just could not finish. The save you are referencing was the BEST save I HAVE ever seen in a live game. I was standing behind the goal when it happened and I turned to my friend and said that kid just made a PRO save. I mean some PRO"S would not have made that save. He was an unbelievable GK. The game was the best 0-0 game I can remember.

[Mr.Right]

I caught the 1st Half of Messiah v ETOWN last night and on video I like what I saw from Etown at least in the 1st Half. They had Messiah pinned in at times and Messiah's backs were hoofing it just to get the ball cleared. I do not remember ever seeing a Messiah side hoof so much. It was actually Etown who was playing some nice futbol on the ground and connecting clear crisp passes. They did not have to many great chances but they could have snagged a goal. Now I only saw the 1st Half so maybe things changed throughout the game or there was a wind advantage / disadvantage. Just my 1st Half thoughts.....

[rudy]

I caught the 1st Half of Messiah v ETOWN last night and on video I like what I saw from Etown at least in the 1st Half. They had Messiah pinned in at times and Messiah's backs were hoofing it just to get the ball cleared. I do not remember ever seeing a Messiah side hoof so much. It was actually Etown who was playing some nice futbol on the ground and connecting clear crisp passes. They did not have to many great chances but they could have snagged a goal. Now I only saw the 1st Half so maybe things changed throughout the game or there was a wind advantage / disadvantage. Just my 1st Half thoughts.....

Yes this is accurate for first 20 minutes. Messiah was on their heals. Later in first half the play evened out more. Second half and ot Messiah took over. Had much more possession and scoring chances. Thats why I said before it was a tale of two halves.

[Falconer]

For Mr Right:

Thank you very much for telling us about that Messiah-Williams game, esp that particular save.  I wish I'd also been there too.  I had to listen on the radio.  The play-by-play announcers (Williams College announcers, if I recall correctly) just lost it on that one: they simply could not believe what they had seen.  I knew a couple of the players on that Messiah team, including Kasiguran (who is now a highly successful accountant near Philly), and they couldn't believe it either.  They knew Shambaugh had saved their whole season on that one play.  So, I had to envision it in my mind, as I envisioned great plays in baseball over the radio as a boy.  Again, I'm in your debt for sharing that memory.

Shambaugh was a baseball player and GK at a D2 or NAIA school, where he had a scholarship of some size, before transferring to Messiah to play for Brandt.  I don't know the full story, but he was undoubtedly the best keeper Messiah ever had.  A previous GK, Chris Boyles (he was in goal for the Falcons' first title in 2000 vs Rowan), was not quite as good but almost certainly the greatest all-around athlete ever to play D3 soccer.  I base that statement on the fact that he not only won the D3 decathlon, but he also won the open decathlon at the Penn Relays (where competition came from athletes in every division) and then later qualified for the Olympic trials.  He had injury problems that forced him to give that up without ever making an Olympic team, but you don't qualify for the trials in that sport without being a world class athlete.  It certainly doesn't hurt your chances in goal if you can high jump 6-10.  (See the story here: http://articles.philly.com/2001-04-25/sports/25329601_1_decathlon-penn-relays-jump )

Boyles just wasn't on anyone's radar screen in high school, or Messiah would never have gotten him.  Again, I don't know the full story.

[Falconer]

As for my statement that the Falcons dominated Etown in all three periods, I still say that, but I agree that Etown ruled the first 16-20 minutes of the game, despite the fact that their top player Gilbert Waso was held in check throughout.  My opinion reflects the facts that (1) Waso was indeed neutralized for most of the game, which is no small feat, since Etown runs their offense through him, regardless of whether he plays MF or target (he played both roles at various points); and (2) the Falcons had two wonderful scoring chances that did not actually result in shots of any kind, let alone SOGs.  They were the two brilliant passes by Colby Thomas right across the mouth of the goal, with teammates in the general vicinity in both instances.  If anything, those passes were just too good to believe: no one connected with them perhaps b/c they did not anticipate actually receiving those passes. In both instances Thomas broke down the left side defenders to get himself sufficiently open to make such passes.  If they had both resulted in either goals or brilliant saves, I think most fans would say that Messiah dominated the first half.  Etown got more shots in the first half, but none of them came off of chances as good as the two that Thomas created, which simply do not show up in the box score at all.

[rudy]

Misericordia University beats Lyco!

As I said before when Messiah played Misericordia at Misericordia...they have come on as of late and play well at home.  No losses at home and only one tie against Messiah at home. Early in the season on the road they took their lumps but they are not a pushover by any means. 

Looks like Lebanon Valley is also playing well at home and will not be easy game for Messiah next game.  Watching games from other conferences ..it seems there are a lot of close games that could go either way based on a ball going 6 inches lower, to the right or left.   Have to look at the overall record of teams...can't just take one or two games to make a judgement.   Injuries, weather, luck, all have can cause a few blemishes. Amherst barely squeaked by MIT for example.  Tufts floundering without biggest offensive threat (injury), etc.

[Falconer]

Lyco vs Miseri... The team that scores first, wins.  I'm backing the Warriors in this one.

You could be right, and Lycoming has to be the favorite, but the Cougars came back from a deficit against Messiah and they are dangerous on set plays.  If they play well enough to get several of those, they might even win this one.  Both teams play on turf so that's not a factor.

I know I don't usually call attention to my own comments, but I'll make an exception for this one.  Misericordia scored both goals on set pieces, one a free kick just outside the box (according to the recap at Miseri's site) and the other on a long throw-in into the box.  Otherwise it was a very even game statistically, with the Cougars edging the Warriors in SOG (5 to 4) and corners (10 to 9). 

I understand why some may be inclined to downgrade Lycoming for this road loss, but Misericordia is a better team than many have realized, especially at home.  They gave Messiah all they could handle last week and Lycoming more than they could handle this week. 

Related to this, two of the presumed softies on Messiah's schedule this year (Misericordia, whom the Falcons play quite often, and Lynchburg, who is not a regular opponent) are both much better than many probably assumed.  True, Lynchburg didn't even try to score against the Falcons, giving evidence at that time that they weren't very strong, but that now appears perhaps to have been a strategic choice not to get an early loss.  Misericordia, however, played the Falcons straight up. Kudos to them.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

From what I have heard, Lycoming dominated a majority of the game, as I am sure Messiah did as well, but couldn't capitalize on their opportunities. Misericordia played them tough and, from what Falconer said, it sounds like they did this with Messiah too. I think you might see Misericordia regain some steam in the Freedom Conference, but it's still too early to tell. Great win for the Cougars and a tough loss for the Warriors.   

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Weekend Match-Ups

Freedom
Del Val@Wilkes
Manhattanville@Eastern
Desales@FDU
Kings@Misericordia

Commonwealth
Albright@Hood
Messiah@Leb Val
Arcadia@Lyco
Stevenson@Widener

Landmark
Juniata@Catholic
Susquehanna@Goucher
Etown@Scranton
Moravian@Drew

CSAC
Summit@GM
Centenary@Cabrini
Neuman@Cairn
Marywood@Rosemont
Immaculata@Keystone

Centennial
Gettys@Fords
Muhles@F&M
Wash@McDaniel
Ursinus@Swat
Dickinson@JHU


Predictions

Freedom
Del Val@Wilkes---------------4-3 Wilkes
Manhattanville@Eastern------1-1
DeSales@FDU----------------2-1 FDU
Kings@Misericordia----------2-0 Miseri

Commonwealth
Albright@Hood--------------3-1 Hood
Messiah@Leb Val------------2-1 Messiah
Arcadia@Lyco---------------2-1 Lyco OT
Stevenson@Widener--------1-1

Landmark
Juniata@Catholic------------2-1 Catholic 2OT
Susquehanna@Goucher----2-1 Susquehanna
Etown@Scranton-----------1-0 Scranton OT
Moravian@Drew------------4-1 Drew

CSAC
Summit@GM----------------3-0 GM
Centenary@Cabrini----------2-2
Neuman@Cairn--------------1-0 Neuman
Marywood@Rosemont------5-2 Marywood
Immaculata@Keystone-----3-2 Keystone 2OT

Centennial
Gettys@Fords-------------2-1 Fords OT
Muhles@F&M--------------1-1
Wash@McDaniel-----------2-1 McDaniel
Ursinus@Swat-------------3-0 Swat
Dickinson@JHU------------2-2

[rudy]

Weekend Match-Ups

Freedom
Del Val@Wilkes
Manhattanville@Eastern
Desales@FDU
Kings@Misericordia

Commonwealth
Albright@Hood
Messiah@Leb Val
Arcadia@Lyco
Stevenson@Widener

Landmark
Juniata@Catholic
Susquehanna@Goucher
Etown@Scranton
Moravian@Drew

CSAC
Summit@GM
Centenary@Cabrini
Neuman@Cairn
Marywood@Rosemont
Immaculata@Keystone

Centennial
Gettys@Fords
Muhles@F&M
Wash@McDaniel
Ursinus@Swat
Dickinson@JHU


Predictions

Freedom
Del Val@Wilkes---------------4-3 Wilkes
Manhattanville@Eastern------1-1
DeSales@FDU----------------2-1 FDU
Kings@Misericordia----------2-0 Miseri

Commonwealth
Albright@Hood--------------3-1 Hood
Messiah@Leb Val------------2-1 Messiah
Arcadia@Lyco---------------2-1 Lyco OT
Stevenson@Widener--------1-1

Landmark
Juniata@Catholic------------2-1 Catholic 2OT
Susquehanna@Goucher----2-1 Susquehanna
Etown@Scranton-----------1-0 Scranton OT
Moravian@Drew------------4-1 Drew

CSAC
Summit@GM----------------3-0 GM
Centenary@Cabrini----------2-2
Neuman@Cairn--------------1-0 Neuman
Marywood@Rosemont------5-2 Marywood
Immaculata@Keystone-----3-2 Keystone 2OT

Centennial
Gettys@Fords-------------2-1 Fords OT
Muhles@F&M--------------1-1
Wash@McDaniel-----------2-1 McDaniel
Ursinus@Swat-------------3-0 Swat
Dickinson@JHU------------2-2

Gettysburg could pull an upset.  They would probably have better chance at home but they can score suddenly/quickly as evidenced in the back to back goals against Messiah.  Muhles could take out F&M if F&M leading scorer still out. 

Messiah at Lebanon Valley is interesting one.  Sure LV has been playing some soft teams lately but they have that 4-0 win over a team that Messiah tied..fluke or are they for real?  Messiah has struggled to score away as well.  Messiah needs this win on the road..hopefully they will prevail.

Etown-Scranton will be an interesting matchup.  Scranton started strong as well as Etown...this will have regional ranking implications.

[Mr.Right]

I will say even with the best SOS in the country IIRC, Lyco at 5-4-1 is in trouble for a Pool C. In 2011 Williams had the best SOS in the country and had something like a 9-4-2 Record and were left out...Lyco will need to beat Oneonta and really get on a win streak.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I will say even with the best SOS in the country IIRC, Lyco at 5-4-1 is in trouble for a Pool C. In 2011 Williams had the best SOS in the country and had something like a 9-4-2 Record and were left out...Lyco will need to beat Oneonta and really get on a win streak.

Mr. Right---Lyco is 5-3-2. Wins over Susquehanna, Juniata, Scranton, Frostburg, and Case Western. Losses to Rowan, F&M, and Misericordia. Ties to Eastern and Haverford.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Predictions

Freedom
Del Val@Wilkes---------------3-2 Wilkes
Manhattanville@Eastern------2-1 Manhattanville 2OT
DeSales@FDU----------------2-2
Kings@Misericordia----------1-0 Misericordia OT

Commonwealth
Albright@Hood--------------2-1 Hood
Messiah@Leb Val------------3-1 Messiah
Arcadia@Lyco---------------2-1 Lycoming OT
Stevenson@Widener--------1-0

Landmark
Juniata@Catholic------------0-0
Susquehanna@Goucher----1-0 Susquehanna
Etown@Scranton-----------1-0 Scranton
Moravian@Drew-------------2-2

CSAC
Summit@GM----------------2-1 GM
Centenary@Cabrini----------2-0 Cabrini
Neuman@Cairn--------------5-0 Neuman
Marywood@Rosemont------3-2 Marywood
Immaculata@Keystone-----1-0 Keystone OT

Centennial
Gettys@Fords-------------1-1
Muhles@F&M--------------0-0
Wash@McDaniel-----------2-1 Wash
Ursinus@Swat-------------2-1 Ursinus
Dickinson@JHU------------1-0 Dickinson

[NEPAFAN]

Weather may impact these games; and in Scranton's case since they don't have a press box may impact their ability to live stream.