Pool C in 2016

[jknezek]

It rarely looks good for a third place team in any league.

[wally_wabash]

While I do agree that it doesn't look good for Platteville, I'm not quite ready to bury them just yet.  St. John's last two games here are not totally gimmes.  If they lose one, I think UW-P becomes the second highest ranked at-large team in the West.  Oshkosh should get peeled off in the first round of Pool C selections, which would put Platteville on the board with five rounds to go.  Could they sit there for five rounds and not get picked?  I don't think so.  I think they'd go in.  But they need that help.  Last week they needed Dubuque and St. John's to lose.  They're halfway there. 

As a side note, I don't think it ought to be a slam dunk that UW-P is ranked behind St. John's anyway.  I'm sure that's how it will end up, but there's not a whole lot of meat on the St. John's profile, tbh. 

[Ralph Turner]

Doesn't look good for Platteville fans.

Or players/coaches. It's frustrating to have to play two games annually against Top 5-10 teams, and not get a chance to continue your season unless you beat one of them.

And if you go 1-1 against Top 10 teams in the season, you are probably gonna get a Pool C bid.

When I see the WIAC Pool A bid winner, I see the team that is likely to host 3 post-season games.

Pool A winners from other conferences are just hoping for 1-2 home playoff games, at most.

Such are the stakes in the WIAC.

[wally_wabash]

Here's the NCAA pre-championship manual for 2016.  Did a quick speed read on this and I don't think there's anything new or alarming in there.  It is nice to have as a reference though. 

The manual is finally correct in its inclusion of Nebraska Wesleyan as a Division III football-playing institution.  It does incorrectly segregate NWU off as an independent, but hey, baby steps.  They'll get this right one of these years. 

[Ralph Turner]

Here's the NCAA pre-championship manual for 2016.  Did a quick speed read on this and I don't think there's anything new or alarming in there.  It is nice to have as a reference though. 

The manual is finally correct in its inclusion of Nebraska Wesleyan as a Division III football-playing institution.  It does incorrectly segregate NWU off as an independent, but hey, baby steps.  They'll get this right one of these years.

Thanks and plus 1!

I have missed something. Why is Shenandoah not eligible for the ODAC championship?

[smedindy]

I googled like crazy but got nada on Shenandoah's ineligibility. The school's site nor the ODAC site mention it either.

[smedindy]

Doesn't look good for Platteville fans.

Or players/coaches. It's frustrating to have to play two games annually against Top 5-10 teams, and not get a chance to continue your season unless you beat one of them.

Well, there's an easy solution to that. Beat them.

I don't think Stevens Point or River Falls or Eau Claire cry much over Platteville's problem.

[wally_wabash]

Here's the NCAA pre-championship manual for 2016.  Did a quick speed read on this and I don't think there's anything new or alarming in there.  It is nice to have as a reference though. 

The manual is finally correct in its inclusion of Nebraska Wesleyan as a Division III football-playing institution.  It does incorrectly segregate NWU off as an independent, but hey, baby steps.  They'll get this right one of these years.

Thanks and plus 1!

I have missed something. Why is Shenandoah not eligible for the ODAC championship?

My guess is that this is a goof and they mixed up Shenandoah and Susquehanna, who is most definitely in time out this year. 

[wally_wabash]

New eliminator tables:





Freshly eliminated teams:
Bluffton - not 3 losses, but hard to find a path for them to the top 2-3 at-large positions in the region at this point.  Catching a beatdown in Week 9 is not so good.
Coe - Clinched IIAC AQ, so they won't be at-large
UW-La Crosse
Brockport
WPI
Widener
Framingham State - Needs to win out which would win the MASCAC AQ.  A loss eliminates them.
Christopher Newport
Rowan
Wesley - Needs to win out, which wins the NJAC.  A loss eliminates them.

I also tidied up the teams that aren't eligible with some extra gray cells this week. 

[bleedpurple]

West:
UW-Oshkosh (86.44%)
UW-Whitewater (75.00%, and also low; 0.03/0.04 = 0.75)
St. John's (65.13%)
Concordia-M'head (16.04%)
Central (8.63%)
Monmouth (8.09%)
Dubuque (5.26%)
UW-Platteville (3.87%)

Just to clarify, this is saying that a 2 loss Whitewater team that has lost its final two games to River Falls and Stout actually has a 75% chance of being a Pool B selection?  Or is that not what this says? Because that seems kind of hard to believe.

[HansenRatings]

West:
UW-Oshkosh (86.44%)
UW-Whitewater (75.00%, and also low; 0.03/0.04 = 0.75)
St. John's (65.13%)
Concordia-M'head (16.04%)
Central (8.63%)
Monmouth (8.09%)
Dubuque (5.26%)
UW-Platteville (3.87%)

Just to clarify, this is saying that a 2 loss Whitewater team that has lost its final two games to River Falls and Stout actually has a 75% chance of being a Pool B selection?  Or is that not what this says? Because that seems kind of hard to believe.

In 10,000 simulations, UW-Whitewater failed to clinch the Pool A bid in 4. I wouldn't put much statistical relevance of a 4-trial sample.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

wally, next week could you maybe put teams that have locked Pool A  in another color like black or blue or something? I think it would be good to identify those teams as well rather than be indistinguishable from the also rans.

[wally_wabash]

wally, next week could you maybe put teams that have locked Pool A  in another color like black or blue or something? I think it would be good to identify those teams as well rather than be indistinguishable from the also rans.

Can do.  I'll also identify the Pool A locks in the projection that I do, but since that's a separate post it's definitely useful to ID those teams in the eliminator tables so that everybody who is out of Pool B/C doesn't look the same as a 2-6 team.  I think I'll go with gold cells to highlight the teams that booked the golden ticket. 

[Upstate]

The National Committee is given recommendations from the Regional Committees, and unless they strongly disagree with how the regions rank their teams, they will evaluate one team from each region against each other. So UWP could have a better resume than a team ahead of them in the regional ranking, but wouldn't be eligible for Pool C consideration until that team was in the tournament.

With that said, it's also extremely unlikely that a team that finished third in their conference outright (no wins over a team that finished ahead of them) gets into the tournament. In two separate instances over the last few years, the committee has said that they will not take a third-place team from a conference.

In 2012, I know a certain head coach for a team that finished 8-2 (5-2), and tied for second in their conference, but the team they tied with beat them and finished 7-3 (5-2), and the chair of the national committee told him they couldn't take a 3rd place team from a conference (if you catch my drift)

You mean they wouldn't take the 3rd place team over the 2nd place team or just a 3rd place team overall? I only ask because they have taken a 3rd place team at least once, i think in 2007, when the E8 got two pool C bids.

[bleedpurple]

West:
UW-Oshkosh (86.44%)
UW-Whitewater (75.00%, and also low; 0.03/0.04 = 0.75)
St. John's (65.13%)
Concordia-M'head (16.04%)
Central (8.63%)
Monmouth (8.09%)
Dubuque (5.26%)
UW-Platteville (3.87%)

Just to clarify, this is saying that a 2 loss Whitewater team that has lost its final two games to River Falls and Stout actually has a 75% chance of being a Pool B selection?  Or is that not what this says? Because that seems kind of hard to believe.

In 10,000 simulations, UW-Whitewater failed to clinch the Pool A bid in 4. I wouldn't put much statistical relevance of a 4-trial sample.

Agreed. I just wanted to be sure I was interpreting that correctly. Thanks again for designing your model. It's informative and interesting to follow!