Mid-Atlantic Region

[SimpleCoach]

Big tilt atop the Centennial kicks off in about 30 minutes in Carlisle, with Hopkins taking on second place Dickinson.

Hopkins will need to score more than 1 goal to pull out a result in this one.

Well, they got the one.....

SC.

[Hopkins92]

Which is why I bounced out of participating in the pool competition. :-)

That win by Hop may be a blessing in disguise for the rest of the league. If they can win one of these last 2, they likely have an at-large bid sewn up.

Winning the CC tournament is a crapshoot, so... 2-bid league? Maybe?

[SierraFD3soccer]

Hop is definitely looking strong. Only can win what is front of them. Hop may win it all, making the CC a one team NCAA qualifier.

Bottom 3 F&M, WC and McDaniel all mathematically eliminated. Only real fight for 6th place.

You could say that F&M fell apart which is true. However, over 13 games, they only allowed 14 goals. Their problem is that they only scored 9 goals. Every game it has been pretty much the same. Decent in 2/3rds of the field and just falling apart in the last third.

[Falconer]

At this point, I've seen enough games to have an opinion about where the Falcons are this year. They are currently #7 in NPI and #9 on Massey. Overall that's about right. Specific observations follow.

(1) This year's Falcons are very deep, with unusually strong FR and SO classes, both of which are getting large amounts of PT although there are no FR starters. Last year 3 FR started at least 10 games, MF Jalen Keller (17), CB Caleb Daniels (12), and all purpose DEF Jack Marcantonio (11). Marcantonio has zero starts in 2026, although he's played in all 15 games and averages 26 mins/game. Keller and Daniels have started all 15. This year the Falcons have a set lineup; all 15 games have had the same group of starters. After that group, the man with the most minutes is FR Chase England, a short, fast player with a nose for the ball. He is usually the first sub, replacing JR Kyle Spodnik who is the closest thing to the striker but not very close. Spodnik runs all over the field and doesn't play target. He's also short, especially for a central attacker, and they send him back on defense on set plays. He gets the occasional header, but only in the run of play. However, he's very dangerous, a very accurate shooter (.684 % SOG), and capable of acrobatic plays (like the only Falcon goal vs Tufts last fall). FR Cam Holiday, a regional HS AA from Nashville, is right after England in MP despite missing a recent game. He's much bigger than England or Spodnik but doesn't play centrally. 3 more FR are playing more than 20 mins/game. Unfortunately, incoming HS AA Nick Silvia has played only 24 mins owing to a major injury and probably won't return this fall. I can only imagine how much more he would have added, as the third leading scorer in Ohio HS history (https://www.instagram.com/p/DQ-NexMETSz/).

(2) Because McCarty doesn't hesitate to play lots of FR and SO, it's not unusual to see 10 non-starters on the field at once for long stretches in either half, or even 11 on those 2 occasions when the FR GK from Ecuador subs in. Both of the goals he has surrendered, I think, came with 11 non-starters on the field, and at least 3 or 4 of the 9 GA charged to the starting keeper Killian O'Reilly came with 10 non-starters in front of him. In other words, the starters and first few subs have yielded no more than 5 or 6 goals all season: about half of the Falcon's GA were scored against the second and third team players. So, it's reasonable to think of their "first team" stats as 39 or 40 G against 5 or 6 GA when comparing them vs other highly ranked teams.

(3) This year's team right now is substantially better than last year's team at the same point in the season--especially in the back and up the middle, but the attackers are also collectively doing just as well if not better. For the full 2025 season including the tournament, the Falcons played 23 games with 41 G and 30 GA. So far in 2026, they have 15 games with 41 G and 11 GA, but keep in mind that around half of the GA came without any starters in front of the GK. The eye test tells me to believe this. The backfield still makes a few errors, but last fall they looked just awful for weeks, the worst I can ever remember for a comparable stretch. They aren't yet at the level of the greatest Falcon teams, but they've figured it out.

(4) The 3 guys in the middle of their usual 4-3-3 are just splendid--rock-steady JR Grant Schreiner and quick-footed SO Jalen Keller in the 6/8 combination (with Schreiner almost always further back) and the very aggressive SO Elijah Perry scoring and distributing up front (6G, 6A and a zillion just missed it SOG). This has given McCarty enough confidence to stick with the 4-3-3 all season, which is normal in Grantham. Last fall he was hesitant to use it for the first half of the season, which was a major reason they had such a hard time getting their feet on the ground. No problemo in 2026.

(5) As for individual recognition, I would not be surprised to see at least half of these guys make first-team all-conference. Nor would I be surprised if 7 or 8 of them get that distinction. As for AA, there's one obvious candidate: SO Owen Resch (11G, 6A), who plays on the wings but often gets inside. A fast, shifty player from Michigan, he loves to create his own shots and puts nearly half of them on frame, even from outside the box. His GW vs York this past Wednesday is just spectacular: watch it here https://gomessiah.com/news/2026/10/21/mens-soccer-no-16-falcons-hold-off-late-comeback-from-spartans.aspx. But, he has a couple others this fall in the same category. He's often being 2-teamed as in this case, but he still finds ways to take open shots or find open teammates. The unsung hero remains DMF Schreiner, who always knows exactly where the ball needs to go and almost never gives it up. He isn't too athletic, but he's highly skilled and SMART. IMO he should be an AA too, but he's not flashy and doesn't score or make the final pass (0G, 1A), so probably not, unless a voter has seen him play in person and knows how properly to value what he does so well.

That's more than my two cents, but I wanted to see enough games to have confidence in my conclusions so I've been gathering my thoughts for a while.

[Hopkins92]

Hop is definitely looking strong. Only can win what is front of them. Hop may win it all, making the CC a one team NCAA qualifier.

Bottom 3 F&M, WC and McDaniel all mathematically eliminated. Only real fight for 6th place.

You could say that F&M fell apart which is true. However, over 13 games, they only allowed 14 goals. Their problem is that they only scored 9 goals. Every game it has been pretty much the same. Decent in 2/3rds of the field and just falling apart in the last third.

I just punched Hop's numbers and they have scored 22 and conceded 10 (in 15 games).

My issue with them is that they're eking out a bunch of 1-0 games, which is fine... But dicey if they keep it up down the stretch.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Ripe for upset in the CC playoffs. 1-0 games only get you so far, imo. Goal diff can say something.

If you take out the two 3-0 wins against very so-so teams, that means 16 goals against 10 in 15 games. Getting in to the NCAAs is the goal, obv, but getting anywhere may be really tough.  However, WC made to the Final 4 a few years back.

[SimpleCoach]

At this point, I've seen enough games to have an opinion about where the Falcons are this year. They are currently #7 in NPI and #9 on Massey. Overall that's about right. Specific observations follow.

(3) This year's team right now is substantially better than last year's team at the same point in the season--especially in the back and up the middle, but the attackers are also collectively doing just as well if not better.

(4) The 3 guys in the middle of their usual 4-3-3 are just splendid--rock-steady JR Grant Schreiner and quick-footed SO Jalen Keller in the 6/8 combination (with Schreiner almost always further back) and the very aggressive SO Elijah Perry scoring and distributing up front (6G, 6A and a zillion just missed it SOG).

This sums it up for me.  Much better defensively than last year.  Like they are organized and know how to adjust.  And the midfield looks as sharp as I have seen.  Also Perry will be an All American at some point.

SC.

[Falconer]

Also Perry will be an All American at some point.

I think you're right. He has an impressive background, including experience on a European youth club. It's not often you get to hear a Falcon speaking German, years before arriving on campus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2dYZZDCvmc&list=PLHIxvmH2bisZ66ZkRSFh0NkWL4oIRcHfs&index=11   

One of these days, he's liable to explode, just as Owen Resch has exploded in the past few weeks.

[Hopkins92]

Ripe for upset in the CC playoffs. 1-0 games only get you so far, imo. Goal diff can say something.

If you take out the two 3-0 wins against very so-so teams, that means 16 goals against 10 in 15 games. Getting in to the NCAAs is the goal, obv, but getting anywhere may be really tough.  However, WC made to the Final 4 a few years back.

Must be tough to recruit out at Wash College... We thought they were cementing something out there and it's just not panning out.

[Hopkins92]

BTW, re: Messiah... Where's that clown(!) who used a relatively down year last year to mark the end of the Messiah era?

Laughable.

[Ejay]

BTW, re: Messiah... Where's that clown(!) who used a relatively down year last year to mark the end of the Messiah era?

Laughable.

Right?! Sweet 16 in a relatively down year, no less. I don't care if they have another 8 loss season, I'm still not writing them off and still don't want to play them.

[SierraFD3soccer]

/quote]

Yeah, a little head scratcher, maybe. Roy Dunshee is really good coach imo. They struggled last year and were so-so in 2024. When they made it to the final 4 in 2026, they beat Otterbein, Kenyon, U of MW, Conn College and lost to St. Olaf.

Yes, Chestertown, MD is a tough place on the other side of Chesapeake and pretty rural. Couple of my son's friends were Shoremen and had great times. Facilities are very good. I think it really is the location.

[BlueJay95]

Roy and Washington was the most impressive recruiting trip either of my son's took. Spent 3-4 hours with us and a fantastic culture was clearly evident. Men's and women's players would eat lunch together and coaches would sit with them and talk life. Very small school and I think it's ultimately size and rural location that work against them. But I highly recommend to anyone looking for a small school.

[Falconer]

BTW, re: Messiah... Where's that clown(!) who used a relatively down year last year to mark the end of the Messiah era?

Laughable.

Good question. One can only wonder what that was about. Maybe someone jealous of the Falcons who was trying to steer recruits away? Don't know, but if so they failed. The talent level in the last two incoming classes is near their historical ceiling. And, obviously, McCarty isn't losing anything. Last year's coaching job was just excellent, taking a mediocre team out of the doldrums and into the Sweet Sixteen. (Liberty teams had recently eliminated the Falcons a couple times, but last year they turned the tables at Hobart, and this year they won at Vassar.) All the while, he was developing that great FR group into the SO who are leading the team this year and recruiting another high level group coming in this fall.

Anyway, I appreciated your support last fall when that was going down.

[SierraFD3soccer]

With one more game in Cent. Conf. still a lot to be determined.

Hop has a clear shot, win and win the conf. However, they are playing Ursinus which is 3 points behind Hop. Who would have thought that was going to happen??  If Hop loses and Dickinson loses, then Ursinus would be tied for 1st place in points with Hopkins, but with tiebreaker they would champs.  If Hop loses and Dickinson wins, then Hop would fall to 3 and Dickinson would be the conf. champ. If Hop ties and Dickinson wins, they will be tied but Hop would win b/c of tiebreakers.

Hop after laying down to the Muhls have gotten themselves into this situation.

Historically, the mother of all rivalry across all sports - Fords v. Swat. Both have 15 points and tied for 4th place. Whoever wins could possibly vault up to 2nd place depending on how Hop, Dickinson and Ursinus do. FYI, over the years recently Swat v. Fords meant nothing as they were out of conf. tournament contention. Different story this year.