UAA Soccer

[VASoccerDad]

Last couple of weeks are going to be huge in terms of AQ/at-large bids to the NCAA tournament. Right now, these are the standings...

Case 3-0-2 (11 pts)
Emory 3-1-1 (10 pts)
Rochester 2-1-2 (8 pts)
Chicago/CMU/WashU all at 2-2-1 (7 pts)
Brandeis 1-3-1 (4 pts)
NYU 0-4-1 (1 pt)

With two games remaining (6 potential points), everyone but Brandeis and NYU have a shot at the conference title.

Case has been having a magical season so far, but they've got two very tough games remaining (at Emory and home vs CMU).

Emory has two homes games left, vs Case and vs Rochester

CMU has two road games left, at Rochester and at Case

Chicago has games at Brandeis and a home game vs WashU

Rochester has a home game vs CMU and a road game at Emory

WashU has two road games remaining, at NYU and at Chicago

I think Case and Rochester have the two toughest remaining schedules and will have a hard time winning both. We'll see a lot about Case this weekend at Emory, selfishly I hope Case takes it. If Case wins and Rochester loses this weekend, I believe Case clinches the title regardless of what happens the last weekend.

Go CWRU!

[DagarmanSpartan]

Emory on the road will be tough.  But if we win that one, then I think we'll take care of business against CMU at home.

[VASoccerDad]

Yeah, I agree. The only question I have is if they clinch the UAA this Saturday, do they rest some guys vs CMU next week? It's also Senior Day so he may play a bunch of guys that normally don't get much time. But then again, he may play the regulars in order to keep the undefeated season going.

But they have to clinch this weekend before any of that other stuff comes into play. Hopefully they take care of business this weekend (and UR does their part).

[WUPHF]

Yeah, I agree. The only question I have is if they clinch the UAA this Saturday, do they rest some guys vs CMU next week? It's also Senior Day so he may play a bunch of guys that normally don't get much time. But then again, he may play the regulars in order to keep the undefeated season going.

I am not sure what a loss against Carnegie Mellon would do to the NPI, but the coach probably knows and is not going to risk losing second weekend hosting privileges.

[Sandon Mibut]

Yeah, I agree. The only question I have is if they clinch the UAA this Saturday, do they rest some guys vs CMU next week? It's also Senior Day so he may play a bunch of guys that normally don't get much time. But then again, he may play the regulars in order to keep the undefeated season going.

I am not sure what a loss against Carnegie Mellon would do to the NPI, but the coach probably knows and is not going to risk losing second weekend hosting privileges.

I did napkin math earlier today and calculated CWRU would drop approx 0.9 with a loss to CMU based on today's NPI.

That does not, however, take into account the impact of CWRU game against Emory. If they beat Emory their NPI improves and also a subsequent loss to CMU would then be < 0.9 reduction in NPI.

I don't follow UAA (nor do I know the specifics about NCAA tourney hosting rules) but I suspect like you said CWRU might be thinking ahead to hosting the 2nd weekend of NCAA tourney and want to keep the pedal to the metal to have a shot at top-4 NPI seeding.

[VASoccerDad]

I think you're right, Case will probably keep pushing. They aren't in this position very often, unlike some other teams, and will want to take full advantage of playing on their home field as long as they can.

[Sandon Mibut]

CRITERIA The Division III Championships
Committee has prioritized the site-selection criteria in the following order for Division III championships: 
1. Quality and availability of the facility and other necessary accommodations. 
2. Geographical location (including such factors as rotation of sites, weather conditions, accessibility and  transportation costs).
3. Attendance history and revenue potential, which shall be considered necessary to assure fiscal responsibility.
4. Hosts will be selected based on meeting the minimum hosting requirements and maintaining geographic proximity.

Seeding may be a consideration when selecting hosts but is not determinative.

In addition, the soccer committees include the following site-selection deliberations:
● Preference is given to grass/grass-like surfaces; and
● The potential host must have played the majority of its home games on the field it is submitting for consideration.

Also note that women have preference for hosting Sectionals (2nd weekend) in even years meaning programs at Rowan, Chicago, Tufts, Williams, Lynchburg, Messiah and Carnegie Mellon (all have both
 men & women currently ranked top 26 in each gender) would favor the women 2nd weekend.

Then you have the fact that St. Olaf, WashU, Tufts and Lynchburg all hosted men's sectionals last year.

I doubt they'd choose both Middlebury and St. Lawrence both being so far north. So it seems like CWRU would have a very good shot if they can get there!

[VASoccerDad]

Halftime updates...

Case 1
Emory 0

Chicago 1
Brandeis 0

All other games at 1pm

[DagarmanSpartan]

1-1 tie with Emory.

Still undefeated and in first place for now.

CMU rivalry game will be decisive.

[VASoccerDad]

What's crazy is CWRU could draw CMU next weekend, still be undefeated, and not win the conference. Several teams could pass them with wins.

Case needs to win next weekend.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Definitely.

Gotta have a W.

I'm still bummed that our "Academic Bowl Trophy" football rivalry with them suddenly ended.

Hopefully this soccer match will make up for that!

[VASoccerDad]

Here we go UAA fans, the last week of regular season games. Standings at this point are very, very close and a number of teams could end up winning the outright title.

Case 3-0-3 (12 pts)- whoever would have thought this at the beginning of the season?
Emory 3-1-2 (11 pts)- probably has the easiest game this weekend so watch out Case
Chicago, CMU and WashU all at 3-2-1 (10 pts)- any of these teams could still win it
Rochester 2-2-2 (8 pts)- out for conference title
Brandeis 1-4-1 (4 pts)
NYU 0-5-1 (1 pt)- their 1 pt came against Case, could come back and haunt Case in the end

Schedule this week:
Rochester at Emory 11am
NYU at Brandeis 12pm
WashU at Chicago 12pm
CMU at Case 1pm

Throw out the NYU/Brandeis game, that one means nothing in the conference race. The other 3 though? Hang on!

Case- win and they are champ. Tie and they are at 13 pts which could be enough, or it could get them 2nd. Lose and they are in trouble. *The nice thing for Case is that they play the last game of the day, so if coaches are paying attention, they will know what Emory did in their 11am game. Emory is the wildcard for Case, if Emory wins, Case must win.

WashU/Chicago- a draw does neither team any good, this is a must win for one of them. That would bring them to 13 pts, which may or may not be enough depending on other games.

CMU- same as WashU/Chicago, a draw does them no good, they need to win outright to have a chance at the title.

And then there is Emory, who probably has the easiest game, based on standings anyway. But Emory hasn't been dominate and Rochester has been pretty good, so who knows? But this is where things get interesting...a draw would bring them into a tie with Case, if Case were to lose. A win would move them ahead of Case, even if Case draws.

Here are my guesses this weekend...
WashU/Chicago- Chicago win, goes to 13 pts
Case/CMU- Case win, goes to 15 pts and is champ
Emory/Rochester- Emory win, goes to 14 pts
NYU/Brandeis- NYU win (it's time, unless they've given up)

Now that I said that, all games will end in a draw...

Co-champion situations- the UAA recognizes "co-champions" if more than 2 or more teams are tied on points. There are tiebreaking scenarios in order to determine the team that would get the AQ for the NCAA tournament, but all teams would still be listed as "co-champions". This could factor in for a team that has a lower NPI ranking. As of the 10/31 NPI rankings, these are rankings for the 5 teams that could still win the UAA title:

Case- 6
Chicago- 7
CMU- 24
Emory- 25
WashU- 36

The top 4 are probably safe to make the tournament based on NPI, not sure about WashU.

[WUPHF]

Co-champion situations- the UAA recognizes "co-champions" if more than 2 or more teams are tied on points. There are tiebreaking scenarios in order to determine the team that would get the AQ for the NCAA tournament, but all teams would still be listed as "co-champions". This could factor in for a team that has a lower NPI ranking. As of the 10/31 NPI rankings, these are rankings for the 5 teams that could still win the UAA title:

Indeed, co-champions. 

Not one champion and a slightly more worthy champion with the AQ.

I do not believe I have ever seen the AQ matter in any UAA sport ever and that appears to be the case this season.  I think the Bears make it in with a win over Chicago and possibly a draw, depending on how the bubble plays out.

[Kuiper]

Co-champion situations- the UAA recognizes "co-champions" if more than 2 or more teams are tied on points. There are tiebreaking scenarios in order to determine the team that would get the AQ for the NCAA tournament, but all teams would still be listed as "co-champions". This could factor in for a team that has a lower NPI ranking. As of the 10/31 NPI rankings, these are rankings for the 5 teams that could still win the UAA title:

Indeed, co-champions. 

Not one champion and a slightly more worthy champion with the AQ.

I do not believe I have ever seen the AQ matter in any UAA sport ever and that appears to be the case this season.  I think the Bears make it in with a win over Chicago and possibly a draw, depending on how the bubble plays out.

The NPI Simulator's most unreliable variable is the AQ.  It gives the AQ to the team in the conference with the highest NPI score.  As we all know, however, the "best" team doesn't always win the AQ in a conference that uses a tournament to decide the AQ.  For some conferences, that could convert a one bid conference into a two bid conference if there is an upset, which could change the "cut" line for At Large bids. 

With all that as a caveat, the NPI official rankings has Wash. U. at #38 and the NPI Simulator currently has Wash U. in the last At Large spot  with that ranking.  They were at #36, but were pushed down after Trinity won on Sunday and jumped from #38 to #35.  So, I agree that Wash U likely will want a win to assure themselves of a bid or else they will be doing some careful scoreboard watching (and they might need to do that anyway!)

[VASoccerDad]

If WashU needs a win to get in, then let's go WashU! I would love to see 5 UAA teams make it, had 4 last year (and one was Brandeis).