UAA Soccer

[kansas hokie]

Early UAA consequences thoughts for the last weekend...

Wash U HAS to win to stay in NCAA (play @ Chicago);

Carnegie might have to win to stay in (play @ Case);

Emory might have to win to stay in (play home v. Rochester who is done after this).

Wash U is last team in right now (bids will get stolen) and CMU and Emory are about 10 spots above the cut line but don't want to risk a loss that will put them on the bubble.

[WUPHF]

Early UAA consequences thoughts for the last weekend...

Wash U HAS to win to stay in NCAA (play @ Chicago);

Carnegie might have to win to stay in (play @ Case);

Emory might have to win to stay in (play home v. Rochester who is done after this).

Wash U is last team in right now (bids will get stolen) and CMU and Emory are about 10 spots above the cut line but don't want to risk a loss that will put them on the bubble.

I mention the possibility of a draw as it is technically possible, but yes, probably do or die for the Bears on Saturday.

[VASoccerDad]

I would love for WashU to get in, if anything just for a 5th UAA team. I'm tired of hearing about the NESCAC's dominance in the rankings- 7 of the top 11 in the latest NPI. The UAA is probably second(?) in terms of conference ratings but it's still a ways behind #1.

[WUPHF]

The Bears have jumped TCNJ and Rutgers Newark in the d3datacast NPI after they suffered losses in the NJAC tournament last night. Lots of results to be determined including the most important one on Saturday.

[Sandon Mibut]

Wash U is last team in right now (bids will get stolen) and CMU and Emory are about 10 spots above the cut line but don't want to risk a loss that will put them on the bubble.

In recent years I think the at-large cutoff has been in the low-30's for NPI so WashU almost certainly needs to move up to have a chance. The good news is a tie at Chicago would be worth ~58.5 points which would help their NPI (but they'd still be on the "bad side" of bubble-territory). A win would move them into a pretty comfortable position on the good side of bubble-territory.

I think Carnegie has a chance even with a loss (I'd guess a Carnegie loss would still be better than a WashU tie). Carnegie with a tie would put them into the good-side of the bubble and a win would basically guarantee a bid.

Emory has an easier opponent but they're really in a must-win situation. A loss would almost certainly end their season and a tie would put them probably right in the middle of the bubble.

[WUPHF]

In recent years I think the at-large cutoff has been in the low-30's for NPI so WashU almost certainly needs to move up to have a chance. The good news is a tie at Chicago would be worth ~58.5 points which would help their NPI (but they'd still be on the "bad side" of bubble-territory). A win would move them into a pretty comfortable position on the good side of bubble-territory.

The conventional wisdom is to expect 3-4 bid thieves, but I believe we have seen fewer.

[Sandon Mibut]

In recent years I think the at-large cutoff has been in the low-30's for NPI so WashU almost certainly needs to move up to have a chance. The good news is a tie at Chicago would be worth ~58.5 points which would help their NPI (but they'd still be on the "bad side" of bubble-territory). A win would move them into a pretty comfortable position on the good side of bubble-territory.

The conventional wisdom is to expect 3-4 bid thieves, but I believe we have seen fewer.

IDK about number of big thieves but the exact cutoffs were as follows:

2024 Buffalo State was the final at-large bid as NPI #33.

2025 Denison was the final at-large bid as NPI #31.

I think years before 2024(?) allowed committee discretion meaning sometimes teams in the upper-20s got snubbed for a discretionary choice around rank 35-40.

Hobart (currently #32 NPI) is already out of their conference tourney so they're hoping and praying for all the top teams to claim the AQs and rooting against teams like CMU, Emory and Wash U. You don't want to be below Hobart if you're hoping for an at-large bid!

A WashU tie at Chicago would move them to ~32nd around ~56.01 NPI and a win would get them up around 56.6 or 24th in NPI. A loss and WashU would drop below 40th and out of NCAAs.

A Carnegie loss to CWRU would drop them to around 29th and ~56.21 NPI while a tie would get them up around 56.8 which would move them up 1 position to 23rd.

An Emory tie vs Rochester would be worth 52.5 which would drop their NPI to ~56.25 which would be (currently) 28th and a loss would drop them to ~55.77 which is 38th and almost certainly out of NCAAs.