2025 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[paclassic89]

The MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

[Kuiper]

The MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

Has Messiah been switching things around, playing freshman, etc in recent games?  That's what I've been seeing from some other traditionally strong schools out west who lost a string of non-conference games and now appear to have conceded that they won't have a chance under the NPI of getting a bid unless it's the automatic conference bid.  They appear to be re-setting their goals for conference play and using the last few non-conference games to heal up, rotate some players, and try some things.  Still trying to win, of course, which is important for mentality if nothing else, but doing more things to set themselves up for conference play than to scrap out non-conference wins.

I'm not sure Messiah et al would do anything differently if it was still under the old committee selection process, but I suspect the NPI, being just an algorithm, is very unforgiving if you don't have enough wins no matter how good your strength of schedule is or how great you are trending after a poor start.  In that sense, it would make sense if they have already turned their focus to the conference season and are just viewing the remaining non-conference games as like preseason games.

The irony of Messiah, Mary Washington, Franklin & Marshall, St. Lawrence, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Redlands, Occidental etc being not as strong straight out of the gate is that if they don't pick things up in conference play, a bunch of schools that thought they were going to get a SoS bump playing them under NPI are going to end up empty-handed or hurt by playing them.  By contrast, other schools that thought they were playing an easy schedule might get an SoS bump from unexpected sources.