2025 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[Footy]

This was fun. I bet someone $50 that I could get the Board hyping Messiah even though they started the season 0-5....happened quicker than I thought. Did flush out a hazing scandal along the way too. I should get paid more just for that.

Thank you. Carry on.

[Kuiper]

For what it's worth, Messiah beat Lancaster Bible 5-0 tonight and is undefeated in its last three games.  Weaker competition than the beginning of the season, but signs of life.

On another note, Augsburg moves to 10-0 on the year after beating Wisconsin River Falls tonight 3-0.  Carver Tierney scored his 10th goal of the year.  Augsburg has scored 31 goals and given up 2 this season.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Financial health of D3 institutions have been part of our recent discussions. IMO, D3 soccer and sports in general will be even more important for many of the schools with respect to enrollment especially with men. It may not be enough though since some or many or most colleges will have to look to cut expenses. Rosters of 24-30 men enrollees may not be enough.

Obv. NESCAC and other elite colleges will not suffer this fate.

From NY Magazine which is paywalled - 

This incoming class is the last big one before a prolonged decade-plus drop off begins.

Starting this year, the graduating classes of high schools across the country are getting smaller, the result of fewer people having children during the Great Recession and the years after. Even after the economy rebounded, the birth rate kept dropping. The COVID pandemic led to another sharp decline.

This is the beginning of what college officials call the "demographic cliff." Higher education is one of the few industries that can predict its future customer base far in advance. When college leaders look at the projections of high-school graduates, they see down arrows only every year through 2041 — by then totaling a 13 percent drop overall to 3.4 million high-school graduates from nearly 3.9 million this year.

Regional four-year institutions in the Northeast and Midwest states face potential applicant pool contractions of 15% or more. Small liberal arts colleges, comprising 40% of the higher education market, are particularly vulnerable. 40% of private colleges posted financial losses in 2023. Top-ranked schools in the US News top 50 are expected to experience minimal impact due to sustained national demand for limited seats.

[Ron Boerger]

It's going to be interesting to see how schools in the NE/Midwest increase recruiting in the areas of the country that aren't yet seeing this marked decline in potential college-age students.  Not too long ago I saw a billboard for one of them in the Austin area. 

[Mr_November]

For what it's worth, Messiah beat Lancaster Bible 5-0 tonight and is undefeated in its last three games.  Weaker competition than the beginning of the season, but signs of life.

On another note, Augsburg moves to 10-0 on the year after beating Wisconsin River Falls tonight 3-0.  Carver Tierney scored his 10th goal of the year.  Augsburg has scored 31 goals and given up 2 this season.

Going to be a fascinating matchup on Saturday between Messiah and Mary Wash.

Messiah are 2-5-1 whilst Mary Wash are 3-5. Both teams have had very stiff competition in their non-conference matches thus far. I won't be surprised if this game is a high-scoring, wildcard game.

I haven't actually seen any UMW games this season...are they still running a 3-5-2? Messiah seem to have changed to a 4-4-2 diamond, last I saw (someone correct me if I'm wrong)...

[eaglesoccerdad]

I haven't actually seen any UMW games this season...are they still running a 3-5-2? Messiah seem to have changed to a 4-4-2 diamond, last I saw (someone correct me if I'm wrong)...
[/quote]
UMW seem to be trying a couple of different alignments but Kilbe definitely prefers the 3-5-2. UMW is struggling on the offensive side of the ball. not as creative in the midfield and the wingbacks are not as dynamic as the past few years.

[Freddyfud]

For what it's worth, Messiah beat Lancaster Bible 5-0 tonight and is undefeated in its last three games.  Weaker competition than the beginning of the season, but signs of life.

On another note, Augsburg moves to 10-0 on the year after beating Wisconsin River Falls tonight 3-0.  Carver Tierney scored his 10th goal of the year.  Augsburg has scored 31 goals and given up 2 this season.

Going to be a fascinating matchup on Saturday between Messiah and Mary Wash.

Messiah are 2-5-1 whilst Mary Wash are 3-5. Both teams have had very stiff competition in their non-conference matches thus far. I won't be surprised if this game is a high-scoring, wildcard game.

I haven't actually seen any UMW games this season...are they still running a 3-5-2? Messiah seem to have changed to a 4-4-2 diamond, last I saw (someone correct me if I'm wrong)...

Not sure about the overall matchup but there will at least be two exciting players to watch.  For me the senior MWU midfielder is one of the best attacking threats in the country.  On the other side is an engine at holding mid.  The sophomore has played all but 45 minutes in 8 matches and just won't lose the ball.

[SierraFD3soccer]

It's going to be interesting to see how schools in the NE/Midwest increase recruiting in the areas of the country that aren't yet seeing this marked decline in potential college-age students.  Not too long ago I saw a billboard for one of them in the Austin area. 

As to billboard in other areas, John Lahey should be studied with respect to surviving and thriving through marketing. Many may recognize from him the "Quinnipiac Poll." You may not have heard about Quinnipiac Univ, but I'm guessing that you may have heard about their polls just listening to the news. Like it or hate its results, that was a small part of him bringing a really backwater college to beyond a regional powerhouse. He grew Quinnipiac from around 2k to over 10k students. He also embraced a lot of things staid colleges will not look at like marketing aggressively while building infrastructure. Lots and lots to study there.

As to sports, it was D2 and Lahey worked to get it to D1 - best success was when its hockey program won a nat'l championship over Univ. of Minnesota in OT 3-2

[eaglesoccerdad]

the UMW player you reference is #2 Sammy Amarose. He is very difficult to defend 1v1. Seems like a lot of teams a sending 2-3 players at him this year. Last year he played up top with Carter Berg - this year he is dropping deeper to get on the ball.

[Hopkins92]

Anyone who follows college hockey knows Quinnipiac, who won the NCAA championship in 2023.

But your point still stands.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Anyone who follows college hockey knows Quinnipiac, who won the NCAA championship in 2023.

But your point still stands.

Also two time finalists in 2010s. 

[RetiredWarrior]

Further to the reality that is unfolding with Messiah - Id offer more evidence related to the inability to adapt, and McCarty's inability to coach - which is the lack of improvement and impact with key talent.  Matt McDonald took the country by storm his senior season and won NPOY - he was a unique and very gifted talent - and as a result of his monstrous season - all eyes were on him and Messiah when he came back for his 5th season.  However, his 5th year was a shadow of the year prior - and I would argue was based on him being a known entity that others adjusted to.  He was man marked and doubled the entire season - and instead of adjusting the shape and scheme to support McDonald - Messiah and Coach McCarty rolled out the only play book he knew - and the results were predictable.  Dave Brandt has shown his ability to be successful at different programs and levels - including putting Bucknell on the map.....and he did this by adapting, by recruiting , and showing that he is a coach.  McCarty continues to show that he operates like the head coach in "The Waterboy" - if it isn't in his "stolen" playbook - he doesn't  have a great means to create or deliver.  Poor results will affect recruiting, and his other tired play book of " Dont call us, we will call you" will be negatively affected as well.  Now, they clearly still have great talent, and this is greatly helped with a very weak conference - which should always give them an AQ path each year...however - much needs to change - or I think the current state may just be the future state.  Its been a great run.....

This does seem to be a post from a fairly spiteful Lycoming college fan/player from 2017 I presume? If so--the comments from here on out should be considered null and void.

In other news/along similar lines--York coach/former Lyco Head has developed a very competitive/no holds bar team at York--similar to what he did at Lycoming. So should be a fairly competitive MAC C final no matter what


Thanks

Actual Lycoming fan/player here from that "era". You can go ahead and take your "click bait" somewhere else and leave our team's name out of this conversation.

We had the utmost respect for the Messiah teams of those years. We were the only program to find repeated success against them in the conference and arguably the country during that period. Regardless of where they stand now, we would not/ did not take any digs at them anywhere, much less behind the anonymity of a message board.

We went toe to toe with them during that period... their last two national championships (2013, 2017) ... the MAC Commonwealth Champions in those two years... Lycoming College!

Since McCarty took over in 2009 the only time Messiah didn't win the conference championship... 2013,2015,2017... who won in those years - Lycoming College.

2015 being the only year Messiah didn't win the National Championship or Conference Championship during that run... which is also the only year they didn't make the NCAA tournament during McCarty's tenure... while Lycoming made it to the Sweet 16 before bowing out to eventual National Champions - Amherst.

Tip my cap to Messiah and what McCarty has been able to do for these past 17 years. If anyone could spiteful, it should be any one of the other programs that didn't sniff a championship during that time... not the only team to have success.

[Kuiper]

UPSET Alert:  Stevenson 1 - Dickinson 1 (81st minute)

Stevenson scored in the 8th minute and then went into a defensive shell, which is one way to slow down Dickinson's forwards.

FINAL:  Stevenson 1 - Dickinson 1

Stevenson, which came into this game with a 3-4 record, ends Dickinson's 6 game winning streak after two ties to open the season at Virginia Wesleyan and Christopher Newport. 

[Another Mom]

W&L v Roanoke -- W&L looks to be in good form, and the score reflects this. 2-0 at halftime. I don't know how strong Roanoke is, but W&L looks great.

[Mr_November]

UPSET Alert:  Stevenson 1 - Dickinson 1 (81st minute)

Stevenson scored in the 8th minute and then went into a defensive shell, which is one way to slow down Dickinson's forwards.

FINAL:  Stevenson 1 - Dickinson 1

Stevenson, which came into this game with a 3-4 record, ends Dickinson's 6 game winning streak after two ties to open the season at Virginia Wesleyan and Christopher Newport. 

It seems as though over the years Stevenson has proven they can be a stubborn side to deal with when they are in the right mood. They might prove a tricky test in conference play for both York and Messiah.