2025 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

[paclassic89]

The MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

[Kuiper]

The MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

Has Messiah been switching things around, playing freshman, etc in recent games?  That's what I've been seeing from some other traditionally strong schools out west who lost a string of non-conference games and now appear to have conceded that they won't have a chance under the NPI of getting a bid unless it's the automatic conference bid.  They appear to be re-setting their goals for conference play and using the last few non-conference games to heal up, rotate some players, and try some things.  Still trying to win, of course, which is important for mentality if nothing else, but doing more things to set themselves up for conference play than to scrap out non-conference wins.

I'm not sure Messiah et al would do anything differently if it was still under the old committee selection process, but I suspect the NPI, being just an algorithm, is very unforgiving if you don't have enough wins no matter how good your strength of schedule is or how great you are trending after a poor start.  In that sense, it would make sense if they have already turned their focus to the conference season and are just viewing the remaining non-conference games as like preseason games.

The irony of Messiah, Mary Washington, Franklin & Marshall, St. Lawrence, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Redlands, Occidental etc being not as strong straight out of the gate is that if they don't pick things up in conference play, a bunch of schools that thought they were going to get a SoS bump playing them under NPI are going to end up empty-handed or hurt by playing them.  By contrast, other schools that thought they were playing an easy schedule might get an SoS bump from unexpected sources.

[stlawus]

The MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

Has Messiah been switching things around, playing freshman, etc in recent games?  That's what I've been seeing from some other traditionally strong schools out west who lost a string of non-conference games and now appear to have conceded that they won't have a chance under the NPI of getting a bid unless it's the automatic conference bid.  They appear to be re-setting their goals for conference play and using the last few non-conference games to heal up, rotate some players, and try some things.  Still trying to win, of course, which is important for mentality if nothing else, but doing more things to set themselves up for conference play than to scrap out non-conference wins.

I'm not sure Messiah et al would do anything differently if it was still under the old committee selection process, but I suspect the NPI, being just an algorithm, is very unforgiving if you don't have enough wins no matter how good your strength of schedule is or how great you are trending after a poor start.  In that sense, it would make sense if they have already turned their focus to the conference season and are just viewing the remaining non-conference games as like preseason games.

The irony of Messiah, Mary Washington, Franklin & Marshall, St. Lawrence, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Redlands, Occidental etc being not as strong straight out of the gate is that if they don't pick things up in conference play, a bunch of schools that thought they were going to get a SoS bump playing them under NPI are going to end up empty-handed or hurt by playing them.  By contrast, other schools that thought they were playing an easy schedule might get an SoS bump from unexpected sources.

Is that true after last year though?  Hamilton and Bowdoin got in with bad records because soccer is the only sport to have SOS dialed up to .85.

[Kuiper]

The MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

Has Messiah been switching things around, playing freshman, etc in recent games?  That's what I've been seeing from some other traditionally strong schools out west who lost a string of non-conference games and now appear to have conceded that they won't have a chance under the NPI of getting a bid unless it's the automatic conference bid.  They appear to be re-setting their goals for conference play and using the last few non-conference games to heal up, rotate some players, and try some things.  Still trying to win, of course, which is important for mentality if nothing else, but doing more things to set themselves up for conference play than to scrap out non-conference wins.

I'm not sure Messiah et al would do anything differently if it was still under the old committee selection process, but I suspect the NPI, being just an algorithm, is very unforgiving if you don't have enough wins no matter how good your strength of schedule is or how great you are trending after a poor start.  In that sense, it would make sense if they have already turned their focus to the conference season and are just viewing the remaining non-conference games as like preseason games.

The irony of Messiah, Mary Washington, Franklin & Marshall, St. Lawrence, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Redlands, Occidental etc being not as strong straight out of the gate is that if they don't pick things up in conference play, a bunch of schools that thought they were going to get a SoS bump playing them under NPI are going to end up empty-handed or hurt by playing them.  By contrast, other schools that thought they were playing an easy schedule might get an SoS bump from unexpected sources.

Is that true after last year though?  Hamilton and Bowdoin got in with bad records because soccer is the only sport to have SOS dialed up to .85.

Bowdoin still had a winning record (7-5-5 before the tournament) and had ties against top teams like Tufts (twice) and Conn.  Hamilton also had a winning record (7-6-3 before the tournament) and a win against Williams and ties against Bowdoin and Conn.  I'm no expert, but I think the "good losses" only go so far.  You have to have a bunch of wins and ideally some good ties at least.  Right now, Messiah may be running out of good results it can get before conference play.

[Ejay]

The MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

Has Messiah been switching things around, playing freshman, etc in recent games?  That's what I've been seeing from some other traditionally strong schools out west who lost a string of non-conference games and now appear to have conceded that they won't have a chance under the NPI of getting a bid unless it's the automatic conference bid.  They appear to be re-setting their goals for conference play and using the last few non-conference games to heal up, rotate some players, and try some things.  Still trying to win, of course, which is important for mentality if nothing else, but doing more things to set themselves up for conference play than to scrap out non-conference wins.

I'm not sure Messiah et al would do anything differently if it was still under the old committee selection process, but I suspect the NPI, being just an algorithm, is very unforgiving if you don't have enough wins no matter how good your strength of schedule is or how great you are trending after a poor start.  In that sense, it would make sense if they have already turned their focus to the conference season and are just viewing the remaining non-conference games as like preseason games.

The irony of Messiah, Mary Washington, Franklin & Marshall, St. Lawrence, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Redlands, Occidental etc being not as strong straight out of the gate is that if they don't pick things up in conference play, a bunch of schools that thought they were going to get a SoS bump playing them under NPI are going to end up empty-handed or hurt by playing them.  By contrast, other schools that thought they were playing an easy schedule might get an SoS bump from unexpected sources.

Is that true after last year though?  Hamilton and Bowdoin got in with bad records because soccer is the only sport to have SOS dialed up to .85.

Bowdoin still had a winning record (7-5-5 before the tournament) and had ties against top teams like Tufts (twice) and Conn.  Hamilton also had a winning record (7-6-3 before the tournament) and a win against Williams and ties against Bowdoin and Conn.  I'm no expert, but I think the "good losses" only go so far.  You have to have a bunch of wins and ideally some good ties at least.  Right now, Messiah may be running out of good results it can get before conference play.

Bowdoin was 2-4-4 in conference, and their 7 wins last year were top notch...
U New England (5-8-5)
Colby (6-8-1)
Husson (8-6-4)
Wheaton (6-5-7)
Trinity (2-13)
St. Joseph's ME (8-8-3)
U. So. Maine (2-10-6)

[Kuiper]

The MAC Commonwealth is even worse than normal this year so Messiah will still probably go undefeated in conference play (York could potentially give them a game). 

Has Messiah been switching things around, playing freshman, etc in recent games?  That's what I've been seeing from some other traditionally strong schools out west who lost a string of non-conference games and now appear to have conceded that they won't have a chance under the NPI of getting a bid unless it's the automatic conference bid.  They appear to be re-setting their goals for conference play and using the last few non-conference games to heal up, rotate some players, and try some things.  Still trying to win, of course, which is important for mentality if nothing else, but doing more things to set themselves up for conference play than to scrap out non-conference wins.

I'm not sure Messiah et al would do anything differently if it was still under the old committee selection process, but I suspect the NPI, being just an algorithm, is very unforgiving if you don't have enough wins no matter how good your strength of schedule is or how great you are trending after a poor start.  In that sense, it would make sense if they have already turned their focus to the conference season and are just viewing the remaining non-conference games as like preseason games.

The irony of Messiah, Mary Washington, Franklin & Marshall, St. Lawrence, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Redlands, Occidental etc being not as strong straight out of the gate is that if they don't pick things up in conference play, a bunch of schools that thought they were going to get a SoS bump playing them under NPI are going to end up empty-handed or hurt by playing them.  By contrast, other schools that thought they were playing an easy schedule might get an SoS bump from unexpected sources.

Is that true after last year though?  Hamilton and Bowdoin got in with bad records because soccer is the only sport to have SOS dialed up to .85.

Bowdoin still had a winning record (7-5-5 before the tournament) and had ties against top teams like Tufts (twice) and Conn.  Hamilton also had a winning record (7-6-3 before the tournament) and a win against Williams and ties against Bowdoin and Conn.  I'm no expert, but I think the "good losses" only go so far.  You have to have a bunch of wins and ideally some good ties at least.  Right now, Messiah may be running out of good results it can get before conference play.

Bowdoin was 2-4-4 in conference, and their 7 wins last year were top notch...
U New England (5-8-5)
Colby (6-8-1)
Husson (8-6-4)
Wheaton (6-5-7)
Trinity (2-13)
St. Joseph's ME (8-8-3)
U. So. Maine (2-10-6)

Exactly.  Bowdoin seems to show the formula for qualifying with the minimum results.

1.  Win ALL the games you are supposed to win
2.  Win/tie a few games against high NPI opponents
3.  Have a high strength of schedule generally so that are no really bad losses
4.  End up with a winning record, even if barely

The question is whether Messiah can achieve all of that without winning its conference.  We don't really know, but CMS could turn out to be a bad loss and I'm not exactly positive how strong the teams it has lost to thus far will end up being.  Salisbury is up in the air, for example, at 2-2-2 and a bunch of decent opponents ahead of them.  Any losses in conference would probably be bad losses, except maybe York.  Also not sure where the strong wins/ties will come from either.  You don't need "strong wins" to do well under NPI, but you need some strong ties and a good win or two, plus wins against the teams you are supposed to beat.

[Hopkins92]

I mean... We're talking about NESCAC vs. MAC-C... The "controversy" around NESCAC getting so many teams in last year comes down to the inherent SOS bump with which the entire league inherits starting every season.

Messiah is likely going to need to capture the AQ to get in, IMO. I know it's early, but 0-5 is a pretty deep hole. These guys don't play 30 games.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Upset Alert - Haverford up 2-0 over Rowan with less than 15 min. Weather and Haverford's horrendous field may be playing a part.

[Kuiper]

Upset Alert - Haverford up 2-0 over Rowan with less than 15 min. Weather and Haverford's horrendous field may be playing a part.

FINAL:  Haverford 2 - Rowan 0

Rowan also got a red card in the 72nd minute, but that was after they were down 1-0 already on a goal scored in the 48th minute.  Interestingly, Haverford was awful last season, going 2-11-5, but they tied Rowan 0-0 at Rowan.  So, maybe Haverford just has Rowan's number.  Haverford is now 4-0-3 and Rowan, after tying Scranton and losing to Haverford, is in a bit of a mini-dry spell.

[WUPHF]

A 2-1 win by Washington University over North Park is technically an upset, though the Bears were clearly the better team this afternoon so it did not feel like an upset.  How good might these two teams be?  Hard to know at this point.

[Freddyfud]

Upset Alert - Haverford up 2-0 over Rowan with less than 15 min. Weather and Haverford's horrendous field may be playing a part.

FINAL:  Haverford 2 - Rowan 0

Rowan also got a red card in the 72nd minute, but that was after they were down 1-0 already on a goal scored in the 48th minute.  Interestingly, Haverford was awful last season, going 2-11-5, but they tied Rowan 0-0 at Rowan.  So, maybe Haverford just has Rowan's number.  Haverford is now 4-0-3 and Rowan, after tying Scranton and losing to Haverford, is in a bit of a mini-dry spell.

The only legitimate excuse I noticed was that Rowan was outplayed.

[SimpleCoach]

Haverford may very well be out of the relegation zone...

SC.

[SKUD]

A 2-1 win by Washington University over North Park is technically an upset, though the Bears were clearly the better team this afternoon so it did not feel like an upset.  How good might these two teams be?  Hard to know at this point.

I too watched this game and agree. NP was not a top 25 team in this game.

[SierraFD3soccer]

Upset Alert - Haverford up 2-0 over Rowan with less than 15 min. Weather and Haverford's horrendous field may be playing a part.

FINAL:  Haverford 2 - Rowan 0

Rowan also got a red card in the 72nd minute, but that was after they were down 1-0 already on a goal scored in the 48th minute.  Interestingly, Haverford was awful last season, going 2-11-5, but they tied Rowan 0-0 at Rowan.  So, maybe Haverford just has Rowan's number.  Haverford is now 4-0-3 and Rowan, after tying Scranton and losing to Haverford, is in a bit of a mini-dry spell.

The only legitimate excuse I noticed was that Rowan was outplayed.

Perhaps, the field is actually worse than it looks. Almost no way to connect passes on ground.

[Gregory Sager]

A 2-1 win by Washington University over North Park is technically an upset, though the Bears were clearly the better team this afternoon so it did not feel like an upset.  How good might these two teams be?  Hard to know at this point.

I too watched this game and agree. NP was not a top 25 team in this game.

I didn't see the game, because I refuse to give Flo my money, but I've already gone on record on D3boards.com as saying that around the NPU athletic department the fact that the Vikings went from no votes in the preseason poll to #8 in the first in-season poll felt a bit ridiculous. For us it really knocked the credibility of the USC poll down a peg or two to see something like that happen.

The Vikings are still a work in progress; there are two starters (one of whom was an All-CCIW first-teamer and the league's First-Year Student-Athlete of the Year last season) who still haven't suited up yet. The talent is there for NPU to be very, very good, but the schedule is such that the Vikings really haven't been seriously challenged until this current road trip. (That's largely what made the massive leap in North Park's poll status so absurd.) The Vikings played a good MSOE team last Wednesday up in Milwaukee and won 2-0; today down in St. Louis they played a Wash U team that's even better than MSOE and lost, 2-1. And this Friday NPU crosses the Cheddar Curtain again and takes on a 4-1 UW-Whitewater team in Whitewater. These are the games that will cumulatively give people a better read on North Park.

I'm disappointed but not entirely surprised that NPU lost today. Playing Wash U in St. Louis has never been an easy proposition; two years ago the Vikings went down to the Gateway City to play the Bears at Francis Olympic Field and had to come from behind in the second half to beat a Wash U team that ended the season with a losing record. I suspect that this will be one of those head-clearing losses for NPU that will make the Vikings work even harder and put all thoughts of coasting to victories out of their heads. (It's a five-hour busride from St. Louis to the North Side of Chicago, so they certainly had time to think about it.) Back in 2017 when the Vikings went all the way to the national championship game, it was a loss to Whitworth on NPU's home pitch early in the season that really galvanized the Vikings to reach another level. There's definitely a possibility that history repeats itself in that regard.

I can't prove it, and I'm certainly not 100% objective where my team is concerned, but I think that, today notwithstanding, the Park is going to have a pretty darned good season.