NPI Rankings

[Kuiper]

NPI rankings as of 11/5

Notable changes:

Lynchburg jumped from 9 to 5 (now I've got Dolly Parton singing in my head) after beating Bridgewater 3-0
Trinity dropped from 5 to 7
Gustavus Adolphus jumped from 16 to 13
Lake Forest jumped from 17 to 14
Wash U dropped from 13 to 15
Wisconsin-Eau Claire jumped from 19 to 16
Cortland dropped from 14 to 17 after tying Oneonta 3-3 (and losing in PKs)
Macalester jumped from 22 to 18
Hampden-Sydney dropped from 15 to 23 after losing to Washington & Lee 2-0
Denison jumped from 27 to 24 after beating Wooster 2-1
Scranton dropped from 24 to 26 after tying Drew (and losing in PKs)
Washington & Lee jumped from 32 to 27 after beating Hampden-Sydney 2-0
Buffalo State jumped from 37 to 34 after beating Fredonia 2-0
Luther jumped from 46 to 39 after beating Central 1-0
Montclair State dropped from 35 to 40 after losing to TCNJ 4-1
UMSV jumped from 44 to 42 after beating Farmingdale State 4-0
Calvin jumped from 59 to 43 after beating Albion 4-1
Bridgewater (VA) dropped from 38 to 45 after losing to Lynchburg 3-0
DePauw jumped from 60 to 46 after beating Kenyon 3-2
Wheaton (IL) dropped from 41 to 47 after losing to North Park 2-1
Oneonta jumped from 55 to 49 after tying Cortland (and advancing on PKs)
Pfeiffer dropped from 45 to 56 after tying Methodist (and losing on PKs)

[LibbyMoore]

Wow, so Montclair is prob not going to make the cut for the tournament, eh?

[kansas hokie]

Wow, so Montclair is prob not going to make the cut for the tournament, eh?

Correct, Montclair is very very likely out.  Cutline today is Hamilton #38 and it will almost certainly rise. Montclair, at 40, is not looking good.

[Kuiper]

NPI rankings as of 11/6

Notable changes:

Macalester jumps from 18 to 11 after beating Gustavus Adolphus 2-1
Wisconsin-Eau Claire jumps from 16 to 12 after beating Wisconsin-Platteville 1-0
Hobart jumps from 20 to 17
Gustavus Adolphus drops from 13 to 19 after losing to Macalester 2-1
Wheaton (MA) drops from 11 to 21 after losing to WPI 1-0
Wisconsin-Whitewater drops from 25 to 27 after tying Wisconsin-Stevens Point (and losing in PKs)
Ohio Northern jumps from 36 to 31 after beating Mount Union 4-1
Saint John's drops from 37 to 39 after losing to St. Olaf 3-1

[kansas hokie]

With Edgewood and Wheaton (MA) losing but keeping bids, the line to make the tourney is moving...

last 4 in...

Edgewood (#30, 56.765)
Amherst  (#32, 56.636)
Southwestern (still playing) (#33, 56.521)
VA Wesleyan (#34, 56.477)

[Sandon Mibut]

How is Augsburg up to 60.3 after their loss?!

What are the shake-up scenarios that would change the top-4? I'm thinking the only teams that still have a chance to be top-4 are Tufts, St. Olaf, Augsburg, Chicago, and whoever wins the Conn/Wesleyan game.

Additionally, I think Tufts is the only team guaranteed to remain top-4 no matter what.

Non-NESCAC teams are probably hoping for Tufts to win the NESCAC to avoid a 2nd NESCAC team getting into top-4.

St. Olaf can move up with a win tomorrow over #11 Macalester, but it looks like a loss would drop them below Augsburg?

Chicago can move up with a win tomorrow over #15 WashU, but how high would that get their NPI? A Chicago loss means they could get hopscotched by Lynchburg and/or Conn/Wesleyan (if either wins NESCAC, or potentially even if one of them loses to Tufts in the NESCAC finals).

I assume Lynchburg can't get over 60.0 even if they defeat #26 Wash&Lee? And same for Emory even if they defeat #41 Rochester?

I'm thinking Tufts worst-case is finishing at #4 but still above Augsburg.

Top 4 seed conversation....

Tufts - win NESCAC semi, top 4 guaranteed. Lose and 60.42 is NPI number, should be good for top 4 still

Augsburg - loss tonight drops them to 59.74

St. Olaf - lose and no top 4 (semi loss = 58.9; final loss - 59.2), win conference = 60.63

Conn/Wesleyan - NESCAC semi, one jumps up, one falls down. Winner has chance for top 4, but needs to win NESCAC to do it.

Trinity - 60.01 is they beat Southwestern in final. 59.2 is they beat anyone other that Southwestern in final.

Chicago - 59.62 if they beat Wash U

Emory - 59.44 if they beat Rochester

I think that's the only teams that can make the top 4. Tufts, St. Olaf, Trinity, Augsburg is where I think it will land.

[kansas hokie]

Augsburg benefits from teams on their schedule (that the beat) winning in their respective tournaments...Macalester, Eau Claire, Whitewater, and Gust. Aldophus and each of those move up in Quality Win Bonus as well. Augsburg was 59.9 when they lost and have floated up to 60.3, product of a good season with a lot of good wins.

[kansas hokie]

Top 4 thoughts...

Tufts - lowest they can drop to is 60.312 (Middlebury loss)
St. Olaf - lose 59.88; win 61.35
Augsburg - done. 60.309
Chicago - lose 59.106; win 60.37

Lynchburg - lose 58.33 ; win 59.72
Emory - lose 58.17;  win 59.44
Trinity - lose Berry 57.88; win Berry/lose SW 58.36; win tourney 59.97
Conn - win NESCAC (60.4 Tufts/ 60.29 M'bury)
Wesleyan - win NESCAC (60.37 tufts/ 60.14 M'bury)

Tufts will be top 4 no matter what.

If Conn/Wesleyan win NESCAC, they are top 4 unless they beat M'bury in final instead of Tufts.

next is a MIAC team or two (Olaf/Augsburg/both),

then Chicago if they beat Wash U,

then Trinity if they win their conference.

Lynchburg and Emory can sneak in there with an unexpected set of results (Tufts wins NESCAC, Chicago and Trinity lose, Emory would also need Lynchburg to lose).

[Sandon Mibut]

Thanks a ton for those calcs!

I suppose Trinity could get as high as #3 if they win and both St. Olaf and Chicago lose. That would probably also require Middlebury to win the NESCAC. Otherwise if Conn or Wesleyan wins NESCAC then Trinity would be limited to 4th at best.

Top 4 thoughts...

Tufts - lowest they can drop to is 60.312 (Middlebury loss)
St. Olaf - lose 59.88; win 61.35
Augsburg - done. 60.309
Chicago - lose 59.106; win 60.37

Lynchburg - lose 58.33 ; win 59.72
Emory - lose 58.17;  win 59.44
Trinity - lose Berry 57.88; win Berry/lose SW 58.36; win tourney 59.97
Conn - win NESCAC 60.4
Wesleyan - win NESCAC 60.37

Tufts will be top 4 no matter what.

If Conn/Wesleyan win NESCAC, they are top 4.

next is a MIAC team or two (Olaf/Augsburg/both),

then Chicago if they beat Wash U,

then Trinity if they win their conference.

Lynchburg and Emory can sneak in there with an unexpected set of results (Tufts wins NESCAC, Chicago and Trinity lose, Emory would also need Lynchburg to lose).

[Kuiper]

Something to keep an eye on if this shutdown drags on.  If the NCAA is thinking about it, they may try to avoid air travel even more than usual.

NCAA Warns Schools Government Shutdown May Affect Fall Championships

The NCAA is "monitoring the impact and risk" of the shutdown to travel and "exploring" its options "since this is an issue that cannot be controlled by the national office or the membership. Rest assured that the national office staff is committed to working on these potential issues so the student-athletes, coaches and administrators can have great experiences competing for national championships this fall."

[Kuiper]

NPI rankings as of 11/7

Notable changes in the top 50:

Trinity drops from 7 to 9 after tying Berry (Trinity lost in PKs)
Dickinson jumped from 28 to 24 after beating Muhlenberg 3-0
Washington & Lee dropped from 26 to 28
Colorado College jumped from 43 to 40 after beating Austin College 2-0
Vassar jumped from 50 to 43 after beating Skidmore 2-0

[mngopher]

Something to keep an eye on if this shutdown drags on.  If the NCAA is thinking about it, they may try to avoid air travel even more than usual.

NCAA Warns Schools Government Shutdown May Affect Fall Championships

The NCAA is "monitoring the impact and risk" of the shutdown to travel and "exploring" its options "since this is an issue that cannot be controlled by the national office or the membership. Rest assured that the national office staff is committed to working on these potential issues so the student-athletes, coaches and administrators can have great experiences competing for national championships this fall."

An interesting subplot. Especially with potentially 4 1st/2nd round hosts in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area plus 2 around Chicago. I'm fudging the numbers a little bit and counting Eau Claire among the 4, which is about 90 minutes from MSP. I wonder if it will cause one of them not to host. With 18 other teams having to get to those sites (4 MSP plus 2 Chicago) it seems to me that could cause more flights than usual, which is not preferred anyways, but especially bad this year.

[kansas hokie]

Top 4 seed update...

Tufts is in.
Augsburg is in. 60.354 today
St. Olaf 59.92 after loss today.
Conn College 59.838 after win today

Lynchburg 59.728 after win tonight.
Emory 59.47 after win tonight.

Tufts wins NESCAC, Lynchburg is national top 4 seed.
Conn wins NESCAC, Conn is national top 4 seed.

Emory is likely 6 and the last two top 8 seeds will be interesting to see tomorrow.